Tag Archives: Triple Take

Triple Take: First Round Predictions

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Week 12 is here, and if you’re anything like me, the annual let’s-all-start-at-noon 16-game smackdown is your favorite Saturday of the season. There are ECAC bowls and makeup games too, but in all honesty, the Walnut and Bronze is what we play (or watch) for, and one of the 32 teams in the field will be in Salem on Dec. 20 hoisting it.

You might not need an expert to tell you that the No. 1 team in the D3football.com Top 25 is expected to win it all. But expected outcomes in the first-round matchups are less certain, especially if your vision is clouded by the love of a particular team or the lack of knowledge of much outside your home conference.

It is with that in mind that Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I give you our playoff score predictions. These are not “lines,” and this is not a contest between the three of us. It’s an experiment in expectation vs. outcome.

Simply put, the three of us separately guesstimate what Saturday’s 16 final scores will be. In some cases, our expectations will be remarkably similar. In others, they’ll differ. Everything the three of us think will happen won’t, but at least you’ll know a stunning result when you see it.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET
No. 8 Randolph-Macon at No. 1 Mount Union
Keith: Mount Union, 44-7
Ryan: Mount Union, 63-7
Pat: Mount Union, 63-6

No. 5 Lycoming at No. 4 Hobart
Keith: Lycoming, 13-12
Ryan: Lycoming, 24-14
Pat: Hobart, 14-10

No. 6 Plymouth State at No. 3 Cortland State
Keith: Cortland State, 24-13
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Cortland State, 32-14

No. 7 Curry at No. 2 Ithaca
Keith: Ithaca, 42-21
Ryan: Ithaca, 42-13
Pat: Ithaca, 48-7

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET
No. 8 Thomas More at No. 1 North Central
Keith: North Central, 33-10
Ryan: North Central, 31-21
Pat: North Central, 45-14

No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Otterbein
Keith: Otterbein, 30-27
Ryan: Otterbein, 37-14
Pat: Otterbein, 35-20

No. 6 Wabash at No. 3 Case Western Reserve
Keith: Case Western Reserve, 15-12
Ryan: Wabash, 34-28
Pat: Wabash, 35-28

No. 7 Wheaton at No. 2 Trine
Keith:Wheaton, 27-24
Ryan: Wheaton, 24-23
Pat: Wheaton, 38-21

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET
No. 2 Occidental at No. 1 Willamette
Keith: Willamette, 34-23
Ryan: Willamette, 31-17
Pat: Willamette, 41-27

No. 6 St. John’s at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 28-14
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 17-13
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 24-14

No. 7 Wartburg at No. 4 UW-Stevens Point
Keith: UW-Stevens Point, 14-13
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: UW-Stevens Point, 17-3

No. 8 Aurora at No. 3 Monmouth
Keith: Monmouth, 38-20
Ryan: Monmouth, 42-31
Pat: Monmouth, 30-13

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET
No. 8 LaGrange at No. 1 Millsaps
Keith: Millsaps, 49-17
Ryan: Millsaps, 45-10
Pat: Millsaps, 63-3

No. 6 Christopher Newport at No. 5 Washington & Jefferson
Keith: W&J, 28-21
Ryan: W&J, 34-31
Pat: W&J, 24-21

No. 7 Wesley at No. 4 Muhlenberg
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 31-20
Pat: Wesley, 31-23

No. 3 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Keith: Hardin-Simmons, 20-18
Ryan: Hardin-Simmons, 27-24
Pat: Hardin-Simmons, 38-35

Anyone who wants to average the scores to come up with a composite “expectation,” go right ahead.

Triple Take: As it gets late, the slate looks great

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Rivalries. Rankings. Conference titles. Playoff berths. At this point in the season, in Week 10 of 11 in the regular season, so much is on the line that very little needs to be said about what kind of week it is. So without further ado, Gordon Mann, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan peer into their clouded crystal balls to give you an idea what might happen on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: Rowan vs. No. 21 Montclair State. This one has the feel of previous showdowns when the Profs and Red Hawks played for the NJAC title and an NCAA playoff time. Cortland State took the first prize off the table but the later is still up for grabs. With the long list of one-loss teams, neither can afford to pick up a second. Montclair has the top defense in the conference (13.1 points per game) and Rowan the second (18.2) so don’t expect a shootout.
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Huntingdon. Nearly an elimination game, this is a rematch of a contest that was a seven-point game for most of the second half in Virginia last year. HSC is not in a great position to get an at-large bid at the moment and needs to beat regionally ranked Huntingdon to get into the South Region rankings itself.
Keith’s take: No. 25 Trine at Adrian. Between the rivalries and clashes of top 25 teams I highlighted in Around the Nation, there are plenty to choose from. I took the Thunder-Bulldogs because both No. 1 Mount Union and No. 12 Otterbein will have a path to the postseason no matter what happens Saturday. But of Trine and Adrian, one is head to the playoffs, forever to be remembered as the 2008 MIAA champs. The other’s fate is to close out a pretty good season in Week 11 and turn in the pads.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Hartwick at Springfield. The Hawks still are in the Empire 8 title hunt while this season has been a struggle for the 2-6 Pride. And Hartwick’s defense has enabled its potent offense to put weaker teams away by comfortable margins. But this is the home finale for Springfield, including three senior offensive linemen. Look for the Pride to show some, um, pride and keep this close.
Pat’s take: Ursinus at No. 6 Muhlenberg. I’m picturing the Ursinus team that went on the road and won at Alfred making another appearance. Since the Bears’ only other wins since then are against Juniata and McDaniel, a combined 3-14, it makes it a tough sell, though.
Keith’s take: Augustana at No. 2 North Central. I have a bad feeling about this one for North Central, and perhaps not for any logical reason. The 6-2 Vikings have been hot and the Cardinals have everything to lose. With a conference title, playoff spot and perhaps a No. 1 seed in North Central’s grasp, the pressure could become overwhelming, the play tight and the game way too close for comfort.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 14 UW-Stevens Point. Trine is my first pick but I’ll save them for later. UW-Stevens Point has certainly made things exciting for themselves and the conference. Back-to-back one-point wins keep the Pointers in control of their own playoff destiny, but how many times can they do it? And can they do it on the road against UW-Eau Claire?
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central. I’m going about as far up the poll as one reasonably can here, yes. Augustana looks like it’s getting the hang of the offense, going 28-for-41 through the air in their past two games (not counting a 13-for-15 in the North Park game).
Keith’s take: No. 15 Occidental. If the Tigers lost 67-61 to a 4-5 Whittier team when the playoffs were in their grasp last season, perhaps a stumble against 2-5 Pomona-Pitzer isn’t far-fetched. Consistency is the name of the game, and Occidental, playing at home for the first time since Oct. 4, must demonstrate it.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Husson. With a win against Becker, the Eagles will finish the season 7-0 against Division III opponents and stand on the brink of making Wesley fans very unhappy. Case Western takes one of three Pool B bids by winning out. Huntingdon is already ahead of Wesley in the regional rankings and seems a safe bet to stay that way unless the Hawks lose. There have been stranger playoff picks than Husson — okay, picks that are just strange — so don’t count out Husson or idle Northwestern (Minn.) as the third team selected.
Pat’s take: Adrian. This is a matchup of two teams on a roll, and with Adrian hosting, with the conference title on the line, I’m going with the home team. The score comparisons are fairly even … if you throw out the Hope and Kalamazoo results.
Keith’s take: Trinity (Conn). A win against 1-6 rival Wesleyan and the Bantams finish their fourth undefeated season since 2003. We’ll never know how this dynasty compares to others in Division III, but they at least deserve a little attention for the feat if they in fact pull it off this weekend.

Who has the hardest road to clinching a share of a conference title: Ithaca against Alfred, North Central against Augustana, or Adrian against Trine?
Gordon’s take: Trine. The Thunder have played a lot of close games and face an opponent that has quietly rolled through MIAA play. As a point of comparison, Hope lost to Trine by 1 and Adrian by 36. Trine rushes for 194.5 yards per game on the ground and holds opponents to 53 rushing yards per game. That’s second in the conference — guess who’s first in both categories.
Pat’s take: Ithaca. It’s the first home game in 35 days for Alfred, in case the Saxons need extra incentive. The Saxons have been close to the playoffs in recent years and been left out, even, dare we say, snubbed, so they know that they need to win the conference title.
Keith’s take: North Central. As I said, Augustana for some reason sounds like trouble to me. The Cardinals have to fight not only a 6-2 team that’s figuring its spread offense out, but also the enormous weight of expectations.

Which winless team earns its first victory?
Gordon’s take: Buffalo State. Man, hard to believe the Bengals are even in this conversation. I remember making a long drive on the New York State Thruway to Buffalo with Ray Martel to cover a game there with postseason implications. This one’s for you, Ray — I’m taking Buff State.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist. They are outmanned by almost every Division III team but have put together two decent performances the past two weeks against teams a combined 7-9. A win could turn into two before the season’s over and give this struggling program something to work from in the offseason. … And Gordon, thanks for remembering the good-old days, when we had a D3football.com Game of the Week and had several thrillers in a row.
Keith’s take: Buffalo State. It’s one thing to say a winless teams needs a victory. It’s quite another for them to have a chance to get it against another winless team. Morrisville State’s transition to Division III hasn’t been smooth and will get less so when the Bengals take out their frustrations.

Come Saturday evening, how many teams will be tied at the top of the MIAC?
Gordon’s take: Three. St. John’s over Augsburg, Gustavus over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead narrowly over Carleton. That makes three teams 5-2. Whatever the opposite of a stone cold lock is, that’s one of them.
Pat’s take: Two. I see Augsburg over St. John’s, Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus over St. Olaf, leaving Concordia and Gustavus at 5-2. Though giving Jerry Haugen and the SJU defense a bye week to prepare for Augsburg makes me doubt that first pick.
Keith’s take: Two. With a possible six-way tie on the table, and the possible invocation of the dreaded Rose Bowl Rule tiebreaker, it’s more like wishful thinking that the MIAC can narrow itself down to an either-or scenario for Week 11.

Which long-running rivalry has the closest game?
Gordon’s take: Amherst-Williams. The Lord Jeffs and Ephs are 5-2 and will be as amped as possible for the 123rd installment of their rivalry. Williams looks like the favorite on paper but Amherst’s home field advantage should even things out.
Pat’s take: Kalamazoo-Albion. The 122nd meeting but the first for Jamie Zorbo as head coach. This was a 16-14 loss for Kalamazoo in Zorbo’s senior year of 1999, when Kalamazoo went 2-4 in the league and Albion went 5-1. And as an assistant at DePauw last season, he saw first-hand how to get a team up for a rivalry game.
Keith’s take: Bowdoin-Colby. This is it for the Polar Bears and White Mules, who meet for the 120th time since 1892. Bowdoin will be looking to come away with an outright title in the CBB rivalry that also includes fellow Maine school Bates.

Triple Take: Can sour seasons turn sweet?

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Sometimes rough starts get rougher when conference play begins. In the case of 0-3 UW-La Crosse, for example, No.2 UW-Whitewater awaits. In conferences like the ODAC, NJAC and MIAC, the only chance a stumbling team has to get it together is against a traditional conference power.

We guarantee there’s no stumbling in this all-staff edition of your weekly primer. Well, at least no stumbling over each other, as D3Sports.com Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann, Publisher Pat Coleman and Columnist Keith McMillan are careful to each go their separate ways under each category. (For bonus points, try to guess who got first pick under each header by turning their answers in first! )

Check out which contests will be making waves on each coast and everywhere in between:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: No. 23 Willamette at Whitworth. If the Bearcats are going to capture the NWC’s first automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs, they will have to win on the road. Linfield lurks in Week 8, but first Willamette has to beat the defending conference champ on homecoming.
Pat’s take: No. 21 Hardin-Simmons at No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor. This game has the potential to be better than the rankings would suggest. The Crusaders have played two of the bottom teams in the conference since losing running back Quincy Daniels to injury but have been much better at the quarterback position than projected. But it’s still endemic upon Hardin-Simmons to stop UMHB, and while the Cowboys have improved over last season, they’ve still allowed 22 points or more in each game.
Keith’s take: DePauw at No. 13 Millsaps. It’s a shame it’s taken gaudy scores for voters to get on board with the Majors, but it’s happening, as they surged from No. 19 in last week’s poll. The Tigers haven’t scuffled as much as their last two finals might suggest, although they briefly trailed in the second half against Centre. The SCAC has been a three-way race in recent seasons, and for Millsaps to really grab voters’ attention, a home win against fellow unbeaten DePauw is essential.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Lycoming at Widener. The defending MAC champs open conference play by hosting an opponent with whom they’ve played some wild games. Lycoming hasn’t challenged for the conference crown in a couple seasons but already showed it can play on the road by hanging with Ithaca. Keep an eye on Warrior sophomore Josh Kleinfelter who is averaging 134 rushing yards per game.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Wartburg at Buena Vista. The Beavers have put a couple of good performances up the past two weeks.
Keith’s take: Trine at Hope. From afar, with the Thunder 3-0 and the Flying Dutchmen 0-4, it looks like a mismatch, but no one in the MIAA would be surprised by a close one. Perennial contender Hope reaches for the stars in its non-conference scheduling, while Trine has not played nearly as well on the road as they have at home. Each side considers the AQ its ultimate goal, so expect this one to be a lot more of a slugfest than the records would indicate.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 11 Washington & Jefferson. [Pat chose first]. Shoot, I was going to pick UW-Eau Claire, too. He who hesitates picks someone else. And Washington & Jefferson, who plays at Geneva, is “someone else” in a week without a lot of upset candidates.
Pat’s take: No. 9 UW-Eau Claire. The Blugolds haven’t shown the ability to put points on the board. (They scored 28 against Hope, compared to Carthage scoring 70 and Wheaton putting up 47.) While they may well beat UW-Oshkosh 13-7, I think it’s more likely Oshkosh puts enough together to win it.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Muhlenberg. W&J is gone too, eh? Okay then. No. 2 UW-Whitewater is a tempting pick against rival UW-La Crosse, but the Mules haven’t been pushed too hard, nor have they been flawless in a 3-0 start. Johns Hopkins is playing its first home game in a month, and is coming off a 33-10 loss to the Mules archrival, Moravian. You think the Bluejays were focused this week in practice?

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: UW-Stevens Point. The Pointers are 3-0 but it’s tough to know what to make of their three victories. Last week they beat Azusa Pacific who is usually solid and already beat UW-La Crosse. But we’ll know more if Stevens Point takes care of business on the road at UW-River Falls.
Pat’s take: Lycoming. Maybe it’s a bold pick, but even when Lycoming has been down in recent years, they have played Widener tough. I don’t see it being any different this week.
Keith’s take: Otterbein. With three wins under their belts, surrendering just seven points in each while scoring at least 37, the Cardinals are making bold statements. With Capital and Mount Union still a few weeks down the road, Otterbein must be consistently good against the OAC’s middle class. Another convincing win might catch some observing eyes nationally.

Who is more likely to sweeten a sour season — Bridgewater (vs. Hampden-Sydney), Bethel (vs. St. John’s) or Brockport (vs. Rowan)?
Gordon’s take: Brockport. The Rowan teams from the early part of this decade probably beat this Brockport team by 20-plus points. But they would’ve beaten Bridgewater State and William Paterson by larger margins than the 2008 version did, too. Rowan is still the favorite but the long drive from southern New Jersey to western New York gives the Golden Eagles a better shot at the upset.
Pat’s take: Bethel. The Royals have had a couple of tough losses, one of which it seemed they clearly outplayed their opponent (Wheaton) but lost in a rainstorm on a punt return. They are out of the running at the moment for the MIAC title but can put St. John’s in the same boat with a win.
Keith’s take: Bridgewater. Looks like I get the Eagles. Not a terrible proposition, though, since Bridgewater owned Hampden-Sydney until last season’s 38-31 road loss. Falling behind 34-0 in last week’s 17-point loss to Lycoming was a low point few Eagles in recent memory have seen, and a defeat would give Bridgewater more losses than it’s had since 1999. The now-humbled Eagles know the Tigers well and have no problems getting up for H-SC. Perhaps Bridgewater reaches into the past and pulls back a ODAC-shaking upset.

Who scores more, Wheaton, St. John Fisher or Salisbury?
Gordon’s take: Salisbury. The Sea Gulls didn’t win last week, but their triple-option offense was still impressive. Quarterback Ronnie Curley is one of, if not the, best quarterback I’ve ever seen at running this attack. I don’t envy Newport News who hosts a Salisbury team that is hungry for a bounce back victory.
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher. And I choose them not because Hartwick is the worst opponent but because the Hawks will likely put up some up points and force St. John Fisher to stay on the offensive a little longer than Wheaton will need to against North Park or Salisbury against Newport News.
Keith’s take: Wheaton. North Park, which is significantly less successful once the CCIW schedule begins, could be out of the game early. The Thunder might not be able to call off the dogs. Carroll of the MWC hung 55 on the Vikings.

Which surprise undefeated team stumbles?
Gordon’s take: MIT. It’s tempting to pick Trine since its opponent, Hope, plays a hard non-conference schedule just to prepare itself for MIAA play. But the Thunder’s win last week over Franklin pushes the spotlight elsewhere. MIT plays at Mass-Dartmouth who needs a win to avoid falling two games behind NEFC Boyd frontrunner Curry. Beavers lose by the skin of their teeth.
Pat’s take: Carleton. While the Knights’ emotions will be running high after St. Olaf took it to them to the tune of 85-28 last season, emotions won’t be quite enough.
Keith’s take: Elmhurst. A 3-0 start after a late summer coaching change is encouraging, but Augustana will be a notch above in quality of play.