Game Day from quarterfinals

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So here I am for the annual trip to Alliance where the weather is about 30-something degrees and there’s a good wind blowing across the field.

I feel a little silly wearing a Linfield sweatshirt, which I brought to have some fun with the SJU and Whitewater fans before the flight got cancelled. I need to buy some OAC wardrobe for these trips since we make enough of them.

Ric Brienza and “HS Coach” gave me a very pleasant surprise, printing me copies of their game charts which we have named “Brienzas” in honor of Ric. They combine all the players’ vital information in a shell that’s easy to complete for a new team and even easier to update for a team you’ve seen before. Bless their hearts for the help since this was a late change in travel plans.

A few Capital players were milling around at about 10 AM and seemed in good spirits. If nothing else, they won’t be intimidated playing in this Stadium. QB Rocky Pentello and the other four-year seniors are playing their sixth game against Mount Union.

As for the Purple Raiders, they are always good for some stunning stats.

– Nate Kmic averages 7.43 yards per carry and is within striking distance of Chuck Moore’s school record (7.46).
– The Purple Raiders are holding teams to 0.9 yards per carry. That’s about what you should get if your quarterback takes the snap and collapses forward.

The two guys I most look forward to seeing are Pentello to see how he stacks up against other OAC playoff quarterbacks in the past few years (Arth, Adamson) and Matt Kostelnik. A junior safety for the Purple Raiders, Kostelnik has amazing numbers — 44 tackles (fourth on the team), 11.5 TFL (2nd), 7.0 sacks (1st), 4 INTs (1st) including two for TDs. Hello, All-American team.

I’ll post some thoughts at the half and after the game, but the floor is certainly open for other thoughts from Wisconsin, Delaware, New York or wherever else you may be.

Looking ahead to Week 14: Quarterfinal Week

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It’s that time again — probably way past it. When we have 264 comments and counting on last week’s Game Day Updates blog post, it’s time to start looking ahead.

The 32-team field has been drawn (Nov. 12) and quartered (through last weekend). Here we have eight teams remaining and four quarterfinal matchups — perhaps the best foursome in recent memory, if I didn’t make that completely clear in Around the Nation. I think we could see four single-digit margins of victory. And even though Pat Coleman and I provide this week’s expected final scores, and they don’t all fall in the single-digit range, we both know we’re looking at eight teams matched against opponents they can beat, should they put it all together Saturday.

It’s our third consecutive week of predicting playoff scores, and we do so not so much to flaunt our knowledge or embarass ourselves, but just to provide an idea of what’s expected to happen, so you’ll know you’re seeing history in the making should the results go off course. Pat has taken the wrong winner in just three of the 24 games so far, while I rebounded after a rough opening week to go 7-1 last week. Pat and I both missed one of the East bracket games and correctly hit the winners in the others.

Why is that relevant? Because our scores — done separately, without consulting each other — are again very similar. That may not speak much to what will happen, but it does paint a clear picture of what’s expected.

Wesley (South) Bracket quarterfinal in Dover, Del.:
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 23
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 29, Wesley 28

Mount Union (North) Bracket quarterfinal in Alliance, Ohio:
Pat: Mount Union 42, Capital 21
Keith: Mount Union 35, Capital 23

Wilkes (East) Bracket quarterfinal in Pittsford, N.Y:
Pat: Rowan 20, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Rowan 23, St. John Fisher 21

UW-Whitewater (West) Bracket quarterfinal in Whitewater, Wis.:
Pat: UW-Whitewater 31, St. John’s 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 28, St. John’s 17

If Pat and I are wrong, and all four games are decided by a touchdown our less, that would be a first in the eight years of expanded playoffs. I looked back at the seven previous 28- and 32-team brackets, and found that all but three quarterfinal games were decided by seven points or fewer (12 games) or 25 points or more (13 games). No season has featured two margins like Pat and I are predicting in Alliance and Whitewater, but three (’02, ’03 and ’05) have featured three games decided by a TD or less.

It makes sense, as the early rounds have always seemed to separate the “playoff teams” from the “Stagg Bowl contenders.”

The road to Salem continues Saturday.

Feel free to comment on our picks or make your own below.

What happened to tight ends?

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Monday evening, the nomination window closed for our All-Region teams. As I was looking through the ballots and testing the voting software, I found something unusual. Two of the four regions didn’t have even the minimum three tight ends nominated to fill our three teams.

So I started looking through the All-Conference teams to see whom I could plug in to fill the gaps and to my surprise, quite a few conferences don’t even bother to honor tight ends at the end of the year.

What the heck has happened to the tight end?

I do understand that run-blocking tight ends are hard to nominate because the statistics just aren’t there to entice someone to vote. But it seems like there are a lot of schools at which nominating tight ends is simply not on the radar. We saw it all season with the Team of the Week. But one un-nominated tight end was the leading receiver on his team. Another was the No. 2 receiver on his team and came from a school that nominated several other players, so it wasn’t like they forgot to nominate altogether.

I do also understand that teams using a spread or run-and-shoot aren’t always going to feature a tight end in the passing game. And in some cases, the person listed as a tight end lines up in the slot far more than as an actual end. (One of the most prominent “tight ends” in Division III fits that description.) But in the end, how can a region of 55 or so teams not have three tight ends worth nominating?