Alright, we’re trying to pick up the pieces of our previous bracket projection. When St. John Fisher and Hardin-Simmons lost, the door was left wide open. Pool C went from six locks down to about four: North Central, Central, Hobart and Concordia-Moorhead. Thankfully, Pool B was pretty easy: Linfield, Thiel, Wesley and Washington and Jefferson. Willamette’s loss put them into the Pool C decision-making process, and Huntingdon’s loss to Maryville meant we didn’t have to consider them anymore.

Hardin-Simmons dropping out also meant, however, that we lose a relatively easy setup for Texas teams, with HSU at Trinity and someone flying in to play Mary Hardin-Baylor. We probably had to deal with three flights anyway, but the new bracket was a little more difficult to ponder.

A reminder of what we were given in terms of automatic bids:

Mary Hardin-Baylor ASC
Johns Hopkins Centennial
Augustana CCIW
Ithaca Empire 8
Mt. St. Joseph HCAC
Lakeland IBFC
Coe IIAC
Union Liberty League
Albion MIAA
Delaware Valley Middle Atlantic
Monmouth Midwest
St. John’s MIAC
Curry NEFC
Rowan NJAC
Wabash NCAC
Mount Union OAC
Bridgewater ODAC
Occidental SCIAC
Trinity (Texas) SCAC
Ferrum USAC
UW-Whitewater WIAC

We came down to the final three Pool C slots and started off with 12 (!) candidates:

That’s regional winning percentage followed by QOW, in no order.
Hardin-Simmons .778 9.556
DePauw .750 9.500
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Capital .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
Cortland State .778 10.333
RPI .778 10.000
Alfred .875 10.125
St. John Fisher .800 9.700
Wilkes .800 10.300
Willamette .800 10.000

The committee will look at them by region, so here’s another look. We’ve placed them in the order we think the committee will. The regional rankings help in some regions, not in others (East, too many losses):

Alfred .875 10.125
Cortland State .778 10.333
RPI .778 10.000
Wilkes .800 10.300
St. John Fisher .800 9.700

Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Hardin-Simmons .778 9.556
DePauw .750 9.500

Capital .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900

Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
Willamette .800 10.000

The procedure is, take the best team from each region, put them on the board and pick the best of the four.

Alfred .875 10.125
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Capital .800 10.100
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667

We have to start with Alfred, as a regional one-loss team (second loss overall is out of region, to Washington and Lee). Replace Alfred with Cortland State and start again. We don’t have wins against regionally ranked teams listed here, because we don’t have regional rankings to work with — wins against teams that were in previous rankings are no longer relevant. Capital has a win against Ohio Northern, which should still be ranked, and a loss to Mount Union. Hampden-Sydney has a loss to Bridgewater and no wins that will qualify (Johns Hopkins is out, not clear if they will get back in).

Replace Capital with Ohio Northern.

Cortland State .778 10.333
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667

We’ve been stuck in this position before, taking either the QOW candidate or the regional winning percentage candidate. There’s not enough data to work with here. We’re thinking Cortland State on the strength of the highest QOW and the win against a regionally ranked opponent. (You know, Ithaca, this week.)

So that’s our 32 teans. Here’s the bracket, before we put you to sleep:

EAST
Delaware Valley
Union
Rowan
Hobart
Cortland State
Ithaca
Alfred
Curry
Great interesting matchups here of teams that don’t usually play each other. And then there’s that 1/8 game between Delaware Valley and Curry. Otherwise, Alfred at Union, Ithaca at Rowan and Cortland State at Hobart.

SOUTH
Trinity (Texas)
Thiel
Occidental
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Wesley
Ferrum
Bridgewater
Johns Hopkins
Oh yeah, we went there. The flights thing is an issue. We didn’t want to pair off Linfield and Occidental, so instead we pair them off with another “island” team (a team that has nobody within 500 miles, the distance at which the NCAA will no longer bus opponents). Is this better than putting Mary Hardin-Baylor at Trinity in the first round? Not much. We’re essentially taking the South’s three seed and pairing it against the West’s four seed … and giving the West four seed the home field because of its unbeaten record. We send Johns Hopkins to Trinity, Bridgewater to Thiel and Ferrum to Wesley, in a matchup of teams that have one loss, by five TDs or more.

NORTH
Wabash
Mount Union
Augustana
North Central
Capital
Mt. St. Joseph
Washington and Jefferson
Albion
W&J coach Mike Sirianni goes against his alma mater, Mount Union. Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana, Capital at North Central.

WEST
Linfield
UW-Whitewater
St. John’s
Concordia-Moorhead
Coe
Monmouth
Central
Lakeland
Lakeland flies to Linfield, which is our third flight. We couldn’t get this done in less than three flights without twice screwing with the competive balance (pairing the Texans and the West Coasters in the first round). Central at UW-Whitewater, Monmouth at St. John’s, Coe at Concordia-Moorhead.

It’s not a standard bracket, to be sure. But then again, we’ve never had 32 teams before.

Alright, let’s try something different. Take the 32 teams selected using the NCAA’s criteria, but seed them nationally. What would we get?

This is a seeding of the 32 teams using the NCAA’s seeding criteria. It’s a little rough, obviously, because there are some seeming inconsistencies in the NCAA’s regional rankings, ones which we’ve had to take into account here since they would use the same criteria.

1 Linfield
2 UW-Whitewater
3 St. John’s
4 Wabash
5 Delaware Valley
6 Trinity (Texas)
7 Occidental
8 Union
9 Mount Union
10 Ithaca
11 Thiel
12 Ferrum
13 Mary Hardin-Baylor
14 Rowan
15 Augustana
16 Wesley
17 North Central
18 Concordia-Moorhead
19 Coe
20 Bridgewater (Va.)
21 Monmouth
22 Hardin-Simmons
23 Hobart
24 RPI
25 St. John Fisher
26 Mt. St. Joseph
27 Central
28 Willamette
29 Adrian/Albion
30 Johns Hopkins
31 Curry/Fitchburg State
32 Lakeland

So that leaves this for brackets:

Linfield Bracket
No. 32 Lakeland at No. 1 Linfield
No. 17 North Central at No. 16 Wesley

No. 24 RPI at No. 9 Mount Union
No. 25 St. John Fisher at No. 8 Union

Wabash Bracket
No. 28 Willamette at No. 5 Delaware Valley
No. 21 Monmouth at No. 12 Ferrum

No. 20 Bridgewater (Va.) at No. 13 Mary Hardin-Baylor
No. 29 Adrian/Albion at No. 4 Wabash

St. John’s Bracket
No. 30 Johns Hopkins at No. 3 St. John’s
No. 19 Coe at No. 14 Rowan

No. 22 Hardin-Simmons at No. 11 Thiel
No. 27 Central at No. 6 Trinity (Texas)

UW-Whitewater Bracket
No. 26 Mt. St. Joseph at No. 7 Occidental
No. 23 Hobart at No. 10 Ithaca

No. 18 Concordia-Moorhead at No. 15 Augustana
No. 31 Curry/Fitchburg State at No. 2 UW-Whitewater

Now, believe it or not, this only requires 12 flights. Hobart and Ithaca is a drive, RPI and Mount Union is a drive (seriously, 496.6 miles), Adrian/Albion can drive to Wabash, St. John Fisher and Union can drive. So if someone can pick up the tab for the extra 10 flights, we can get this done. Who’s with me? 🙂

Welcome back to the game we annually call our playoff projections. This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, most of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight South teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Keep in mind, these are the NCAA’s criteria:
The following primary criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-wins index–only contests versus regional competition
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams (ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process).
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.

Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 9. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.

Delaware Valley Bracket
1. Delaware Valley (A)
2. Union (C)
3. Ithaca (A)
4. Rowan (A)
5. Hobart (C)
6. RPI (C)
7. St. John Fisher (C)
8. Curry/Fitchburg State (A)
This setup works so that there are not any conference rematches in first-round games. … We still have three Liberty League teams in because they all have decent numbers, but I think if RPI wins Saturday’s game against Union then Hobart will drop out. If RPI loses then RPI will drop out. Why? RPI already has a better regional winning percentage and Quality of Wins index, but Hobart has the head-to-head win. A win against Union will give them the automatic bid and a guaranteed slot. Union would have the win against Hobart on its résumé. … This committee is apparently giving a lot of weight to one game: Hobart over RPI. The win against a regionally ranked opponent gives Hobart a better regional ranking than St. John Fisher, even though SJF has a better regional winning percentage and better QOW. … If Rowan loses to Montclair this week, Cortland gets the automatic bid and Rowan is out.

Wabash Bracket
1. Wabash (A)
2. UW-Whitewater (A)
3. Mount Union (A)
4. Augustana (A)
5. North Central (C)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
7. Adrian/Albion (A)
8. Lakeland (A)
They will not rematch Augustana and North Central in the first round. Projected matchups: Lakeland at Wabash, MIAA winner at UW-Whitewater, North Central at Mount Union, Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana. … Stiff price for North Central lining up in the neutral zone on the blocked field goal at Augie. … UW-Whitewater was the No. 2 team in the West regional rankings. They wouldn’t be put up higher than No. 2 in the North.

Trinity (Texas) Bracket
1. Trinity (Texas) (A)
2. Thiel (B)
3. Ferrum (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (C)
5. Wesley (B)
6. Bridgewater (Va.) (A)
7. Hardin-Simmons (A)
8. Johns Hopkins (A)
Geography still dictates Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas). That puts Johns Hopkins at Ferrum. … Thiel still leads Ferrum in QOW and has the win against a regionally ranked opponent. Why is Ferrum ahead of Thiel in the regional rankings? … This has Wesley headed for its second-ever NCAA playoff game, both in the state of Texas.

Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Occidental (A)
4. Concordia-Moorhead (C)
5. Coe (A)
6. Monmouth (A)
7. Central (C)
8. Willamette (B)
Alright, Willamette, you have this spot for now. At 4-0 in-region with an 11.000 QOW you are in the last Pool B slot. At 4-1 in-region next week with a projected 10.000 QOW you won’t be, so the playoffs start a week early for you. (And if Pacific Lutheran beats Whitworth, the QOW for Willamette will fall even further.) … First-round matchups: Willamette at Occidental, Central at Linfield (no mud anymore), Monmouth at St. John’s (455 miles on NCAA map), Coe at Concordia-Moorhead (490 miles on NCAA map).

Who’s left? Our next Pool B team (i.e., the one waiting for Willamette to lose) is Washington and Jefferson. They were considered in Pool C but had a lower QOW than anyone selected in Pool C, save Hobart, which had the win against the regionally ranked team. Huntingdon next, as its QOW dove from 9.400 to 8.600 this week. The Maryville game, even if a win, will drive it even further down.

I have another separate playoffs post coming later, possibly tomorrow. I like that idea better.