Alright, we’re trying to pick up the pieces of our previous bracket projection. When St. John Fisher and Hardin-Simmons lost, the door was left wide open. Pool C went from six locks down to about four: North Central, Central, Hobart and Concordia-Moorhead. Thankfully, Pool B was pretty easy: Linfield, Thiel, Wesley and Washington and Jefferson. Willamette’s loss put them into the Pool C decision-making process, and Huntingdon’s loss to Maryville meant we didn’t have to consider them anymore.
Hardin-Simmons dropping out also meant, however, that we lose a relatively easy setup for Texas teams, with HSU at Trinity and someone flying in to play Mary Hardin-Baylor. We probably had to deal with three flights anyway, but the new bracket was a little more difficult to ponder.
A reminder of what we were given in terms of automatic bids:
Mary Hardin-Baylor ASC
Johns Hopkins Centennial
Augustana CCIW
Ithaca Empire 8
Mt. St. Joseph HCAC
Lakeland IBFC
Coe IIAC
Union Liberty League
Albion MIAA
Delaware Valley Middle Atlantic
Monmouth Midwest
St. John’s MIAC
Curry NEFC
Rowan NJAC
Wabash NCAC
Mount Union OAC
Bridgewater ODAC
Occidental SCIAC
Trinity (Texas) SCAC
Ferrum USAC
UW-Whitewater WIAC
We came down to the final three Pool C slots and started off with 12 (!) candidates:
That’s regional winning percentage followed by QOW, in no order.
Hardin-Simmons .778 9.556
DePauw .750 9.500
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Capital .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
Cortland State .778 10.333
RPI .778 10.000
Alfred .875 10.125
St. John Fisher .800 9.700
Wilkes .800 10.300
Willamette .800 10.000
The committee will look at them by region, so here’s another look. We’ve placed them in the order we think the committee will. The regional rankings help in some regions, not in others (East, too many losses):
Alfred .875 10.125
Cortland State .778 10.333
RPI .778 10.000
Wilkes .800 10.300
St. John Fisher .800 9.700
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Hardin-Simmons .778 9.556
DePauw .750 9.500
Capital .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
Willamette .800 10.000
The procedure is, take the best team from each region, put them on the board and pick the best of the four.
Alfred .875 10.125
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Capital .800 10.100
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
We have to start with Alfred, as a regional one-loss team (second loss overall is out of region, to Washington and Lee). Replace Alfred with Cortland State and start again. We don’t have wins against regionally ranked teams listed here, because we don’t have regional rankings to work with — wins against teams that were in previous rankings are no longer relevant. Capital has a win against Ohio Northern, which should still be ranked, and a loss to Mount Union. Hampden-Sydney has a loss to Bridgewater and no wins that will qualify (Johns Hopkins is out, not clear if they will get back in).
Replace Capital with Ohio Northern.
Cortland State .778 10.333
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
We’ve been stuck in this position before, taking either the QOW candidate or the regional winning percentage candidate. There’s not enough data to work with here. We’re thinking Cortland State on the strength of the highest QOW and the win against a regionally ranked opponent. (You know, Ithaca, this week.)
So that’s our 32 teans. Here’s the bracket, before we put you to sleep:
EAST
Delaware Valley
Union
Rowan
Hobart
Cortland State
Ithaca
Alfred
Curry
Great interesting matchups here of teams that don’t usually play each other. And then there’s that 1/8 game between Delaware Valley and Curry. Otherwise, Alfred at Union, Ithaca at Rowan and Cortland State at Hobart.
SOUTH
Trinity (Texas)
Thiel
Occidental
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Wesley
Ferrum
Bridgewater
Johns Hopkins
Oh yeah, we went there. The flights thing is an issue. We didn’t want to pair off Linfield and Occidental, so instead we pair them off with another “island” team (a team that has nobody within 500 miles, the distance at which the NCAA will no longer bus opponents). Is this better than putting Mary Hardin-Baylor at Trinity in the first round? Not much. We’re essentially taking the South’s three seed and pairing it against the West’s four seed … and giving the West four seed the home field because of its unbeaten record. We send Johns Hopkins to Trinity, Bridgewater to Thiel and Ferrum to Wesley, in a matchup of teams that have one loss, by five TDs or more.
NORTH
Wabash
Mount Union
Augustana
North Central
Capital
Mt. St. Joseph
Washington and Jefferson
Albion
W&J coach Mike Sirianni goes against his alma mater, Mount Union. Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana, Capital at North Central.
WEST
Linfield
UW-Whitewater
St. John’s
Concordia-Moorhead
Coe
Monmouth
Central
Lakeland
Lakeland flies to Linfield, which is our third flight. We couldn’t get this done in less than three flights without twice screwing with the competive balance (pairing the Texans and the West Coasters in the first round). Central at UW-Whitewater, Monmouth at St. John’s, Coe at Concordia-Moorhead.
It’s not a standard bracket, to be sure. But then again, we’ve never had 32 teams before.
“Oh yeah, we went there.” That’s going to go down as one of your most famous quotes, Pat. You know that, don’t you?
I Just find it hard to believe that “arguably” the three best teams in the country (Linfield, Whitewater, St Johns) will all be in the same bracket. I also find it hard to believe that three two loss pool “c” bids will go out and a one loss team like cal lutheran wont get a bid.
I’ll pay to see Hopkins come to Texas in the first round. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
The possibility of the East Region getting two pool C bids for teams with two losses seems remote. Sitting Cal Lutheran (8-1) whose only loss was to ranked and unbeaten Occidental just doesn’t feel right with Alfred and Cortland State getting in.
ICFootball- believe it, the committee has done that before and will do it again. moving any of those teams requires a complicated solution that is not in their mandate. you will see 1 of those three teams come out of that bracket.
Cal Lutheran didn’t beat anybody. Those teams cited did.
So why the about-face when it comes to moving WW out of the West by D-3.com projections? Can’t believe that they will leave the top 3 teams together. Such an obvious unfair move. What happened to the “yellow brick road, ” that the Linfield posters have been talking about. Hope you are wrong. Really, what good does it do to go undefeated, become one of the top 3 teams in the nation, get a good QOW ranking only to have the NACC blatantly disregard that when Selection Sunday come along! If these projections hold true, looks like the championship will be decided long before the Stagg Bowl and that is a shame. I predict the winner of the West takes it all!
You gotta beat Linfield at some point. Why not early?
I think what happened is that some of the “C” contenders lost yesterday, throwing everything into a tizzy.
Interesting possibility of a Cortaca Jug rematch in round two of the east bracket! Can’t help but love all the possibilities of teams from New York playing each other that usually don’t or that used to play each other but realligned. I said it once and I’ll say it again what a year for Upstate New York Football.
SmedIndy,
I’d rather have to beat them at the Stagg Bowl for a National Championship on a neutral field than have to fly to Oregon and play them just to get out of the region. Besides, for weeks all the WIAC posters have heard is how the WIAC always goes down in the first round or two. In the past, WIAC teams were not ranked at #2 so did have to go up against the top teams early. As the #2 ranked team, they should have the seeding process work for them and so should Linfield and St. Johns. Don’t think they can be too happy about the brackets either if WW isn’t moved to the North. Lower ranked teams with worse records should not have an easier road to the Stagg Bowl than the top 3 teams!! That is the purpose of the seeding system, so the top ranked teams don’t meet until the quarter or semi-finals , or finals in theory!
There is no way Wilkes should have gotten in. Alfred was ranked above Wilkes and then beat the number 12 team and they didnt get in? That makes no sense what so ever. Alfred lost there first game simply because it was the quarterbacks first game and the game was all the way in Virginia. If that game is home, i bet Alfred wins the game. At Ithica, the game was closer than the score. IF Alfred had gotten some credit towards the beginning of the season they definatly would have been in.
I agree where is love for Alfred. I thought they had a good chance after they beat Fisher.