Author Archives: FDF

Mount Union vs. UW-Whitewater again!

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OK,
never you mind which D3football.com columnist said this season was wide open. Turns out it was always the Warhawks and the Purple Raiders.

So, I figured I might as well get a jump on this week’s chatter by setting up a thread where we can speculate if UW-W will even the score at 2-2, or will Greg Micheli and Nate Kmic go out as champions. Have at it below.

We’ll be approaching the story this week from several angles, through our Road to Salem features, the first installment of the Around the Nation year-in-review, an expanded slate of predictions for Stagg Bowl XXXVI and the release of the D3football.com all-Americans on our Stagg Bowl pregame show.

And this is as good a place as any to start sorting out the memories from the past three season that have run together. Off the top of my head, here’s what I recall:

2005: The Pete Schmitt (non-)TD before the half becomes the first instant replay review in D3 history, and a 95-yard Nate Kmic TD run helps put away a 35-28 Mount Union win.

2006: UW-W’s Derek Stanley makes a great catch along the sidelines as UW-W tries to send longtime coach Bob Berezowitz out a champion, but it’s Pierre Garcon who goes airborne for a TD in leading Mount Union to a 35-16 win. Micheli comes off the bench to go 18 of 22 and win MVP honors.

2007: Two-time champion sends one of the most talented and statistically dominant teams in Division III history to Salem, but an early goal-line stand, a determined 239-yard rushing day from Justin Beaver, and the running of QB Danny Jones, a Cal Lutheran transfer, lifted Whitewater to the title.

2008: You tell us how the story will end.

I’m sure I’m not remembering some of the numbers correctly, or mixing up the Kmic and Garcon big plays, but that illustrates my point. After three of these, some of the details are beginning to run together. D3football.com will re-visit the games this week and get all the details straight leading up to this week’s webcast of the championship game.

Triple Take: Picking the semifinals

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Look,
There isn’t a whole lot of intro needed here. We have four phenomenal teams left from a crop of 239. Two will punch tickets to Salem on Saturday, one in sunny Belton, Texas, the other in chilly Alliance, Ohio. And believe it or not, we have unanimity among the trio who’s been forecasting each playoff weekend for you: columnist Ryan Tipps, columnist/managing editor Keith McMillan and publisher Pat Coleman.

After the guys have at it, feel free to add your own picks below. Those brave enough win the opportunity to gloat later.

Wisconsin-Whitewater (12-1) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (12-1)
Ryan’s take: The phrase “bruised and battered” means something different to Mary Hardin-Baylor than it does to other teams. Several times this year, it has seemed the Crusaders were poised to stumble under excessive injuries. Yet instead of tip-toeing through the troubles, they ran past them at full speed, helped by the half-dozen guys who have been able to pick up an average of 5 yards or more per carry. Then again, UW-Whitewater, no slouches on offense, will also likely be the stingiest defense UMHB has lined up against this year. A difference of only 10 yards per game, statistically, separates these two offenses. Both teams have been here before — in terms of time, place and stakes. What could hinder Whitewater is an inability to stay at full throttle for the full 60 minutes, allowing UMHB to pull away after the break.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, UW-Whitewater 24

Keith’s take: Usually I’m the long-winded, overly analytical one, but I’ll keep my reasoning simple in this toss-up. I’m making the stretch from picking UMHB to be upset in the first round to picking them to get to Salem, basically based on how they’ve played the past two weeks against Wesley and W&J. They’ve been able to mix the pass in with the always-potent running game, and generate problems on defense. They demolished the Presidents, 63-7, and should be as confident as they have been all season; UW-Whitewater had to battle to get past Wartburg. Playing well, playing at home and playing to keep dreams of the school’s first championship alive, I go:
Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, UW-Whitewater 21

Pat’s take: My concern is that another potent running offense will cause the Warhawks to break rather than just bend. If UMHB is in field goal range it won’t hesitate to take the points, which may have been Willamette’s downfall two weeks ago. The Crusader defense will do a better job early in the game than Willamette did against UWW, plus, I’m still worried about quarterback Jeff Donovan, who is 12-for-29 passing since getting injured at halftime of the second-round game.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, UW-Whitewater 20

Wheaton (11-2) at Mount Union (13-0)
Ryan’s take: The Thunder struck hard against the trio of Indiana playoff teams, but Ohio will undoubtedly be a different beast for them. Wheaton is best through the middle of a game: The second and third quarters are their prime times for putting up points and keeping pressure on teams, both of which are critical if the men want any chance of beating the Mount Union machine. For the Thunder, slowing Nate Kmic and getting pressure on Greg Micheli are possible. But is shutting down the receiving corps? That will be the biggest key to Wheaton’s chances in Alliance, and I’m not entirely convinced the team will deliver. Wheaton gives up, on average, 228 yards per game against the pass, but to its credit the team has held its previous two (pass-heavy) playoff opponents to fewer than their averages. At this point in the season, Wheaton is accelerating down the stretch toward perfection — and perfection is exactly what will be needed from them Saturday.
Mount Union 41, Wheaton 17

Keith’s take: I love the run Wheaton is on, I love that they’ve been able to play great defense when needed and outscore teams when that’s been the recipe. Pete Ittersagen is a defensive stud, the offense is mixing the run and the pass well, and the Thunder is playing inspired. That said, we’ve seen hardly the chink in the armor necessary for me to believe Mount Union is going down on Saturday. There are flaws, but they remain few, and I don’t see the Purple Raiders playing a sloppy, turnover-plagued game with Greg Micheli at the controls. It might get dicey at times, it might not be easy, but it will lead to another Purple Saturday in Salem.
Mount Union 35, Wheaton 17

Pat’s take: I just don’t see Wheaton having the firepower to stay with Mount Union, not if Rocky Gingg can’t go at running back. Even if Pete Ittersagen keeps Cecil Shorts in check, it’s a tough task for Wheaton to keep the Purple Raiders’ other offensive pieces contained if the offense doesn’t help by keeping them off the field. In the end, this game looks a lot like last week’s Mount Union game, close for a while with the Purple Raiders pulling away. And I think Nate Kmic gets the all-time NCAA rushing record in the process.
Mount Union 45, Wheaton 14

Triple Take: Third-round predictions

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Welcome to the Round of Eight. The initial 32-team field has been quartered, and it’s Friday — tomorrow we watch as it’s cut in half again.

Reading some of the comments recently, I almost thought ‘why bother with a fancy intro this week?’ But the discerning among you read closely, and that we appreciate, as well as your feedback. So let me jog your minds before we get to the actual picks.

I might not be able to keep pace with Ryan Tipps, but here’s one prediction I’ll nail this week: The three of us (and remember, we take a stab at scores without talking to each other) will be unanimous on three games, and split on one.

There’s no reason to take offense. Three of the dominant programs of the last half-decade are at home tomorrow. Mount Union, UW-Whitewater and Mary Hardin-Baylor have accounted for seven of the past eight Stagg Bowl appearances. And although the Cru, whose 2007 group was one of the best non-Stagg teams of the automatic bid era, lacks the jewelry the other two can show off, they have something no one I can think of does: A winning record (1-0) in Alliance.

So fans of Cortland State, Wartburg and Washington & Jefferson, don’t take it as a sign of disrespect. It’s more like a sign that respect is earned, not given. For certain, this is 2008 were talking about, and history doesn’t strap up on Saturday. All eight teams still standing have earned respect, and they honestly all have a chance to win.

What W&J did defensively and in the running game against Millsaps was tremendous, proving the team was more than just The Bobby Swallow Show. Wheaton and Wartburg, both with two losses, have been playing with their backs against the wall for weeks, and responding again and again. Cortland State and Wheaton played two of the more grueling schedules you’ll find, and Franklin … when that offense gets humming, it’s some see-it-to-believe-it type stuff.

Step back a second and remember that there are 231 Division III football programs who could not be with us this wekend, and the vast majority of them would love to have one more Saturday of football. Enjoy it. Represent college football in its purest form by playing and rooting hard, but being good to each other as well.

What’s been accomplished so far by these elite eight is really special. Four of these teams will end their seasons with a loss Saturday. It’s our job to set the expectation on which ones it will be, but even an “expert” isn’t always 100% sure. There’s reason to believe in every team left.

As always, feel free to tally the composite prediction. And please share your picks below.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET FINAL
No. 3 seed Cortland State at No. 1 Mount Union
Ryan: Mount Union, 45-20
Keith: Mount Union, 38-21
Pat: Mount Union, 52-17

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET FINAL
No. 5 Washington & Jefferson at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Ryan: UMHB, 38-28
Keith: UMHB, 35-28
Pat: UMHB, 34-24

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET FINAL
No. 7 Wheaton at No. 5 Franklin
Ryan: Franklin, 42-34
Keith: Franklin, 37-31
Pat: Wheaton, 45-42

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET FINAL
No. 7 Wartburg at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 31-21
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 24-7
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 34-13