OK, so I’ve had the idea for this thread all day today. I was hoping to give us, as D3 fans and alumni in general, the benefit of the doubt, that we were all highly-evolved enough not to need it. But we do.

So here’s the deal. This is the new home for discussion about Wesley at UW-Whitewater and St. John Fisher at Mount Union, with a caveat: Your posts have to have some sort of value to them: perspective, insight, well-thought-out reasoning or a question you need answered.

What you’ll get in return is a respectful environment where personal attacks and smack are limited, if not entirely absent. I’ll personally make sure of it.

For those who want to carry on with the immature stuff, the whining about not being respected, the jabs at other posters … we’ll still have other threads for that on the Daily Dose and Post Patterns (I’ll probably be on those threads too). But this isn’t the place for that.

If you’re a fanatical fan of one team and you honestly don’t know anything about the other, save your score predictions. You can be helpful here with the amount of insight you must have from watching the same team each week.

In a way, this thread is an experiment. People seem like they really value, and want, a respectful, intelligent atmosphere. But we’ll find out how much that is really wanted by how much you post here. Perhaps we all like to mix it up a little more than we want to admit.

In any case, here are a few questions to start off the mature, thoughtful discussion about these games:
1. Does the past matter? (Mount Union’s titles, last year’s Wesley-UWW result, Saturday’s games)
2. What’s each team’s biggest on-field strength, or on-field weakness? What will they need to do that they normally don’t do to win Saturday?
3. Which “unsung heroes” will be key to their team’s chances Saturday?
4. These are four cold-weather teams. Will weather matter? Whose style would be most affected by precipitation. Whitewater is a grass field, but the other three teams are turf. The Stagg Bowl is on grass. Factor or non-factor?
5. Kmic, Robinson, Beaver … who’s the best back left? Kleppe, Robinson, Stickley … best D-Lineman left?
6. Who has the most to prove?
7. D3 fans help out your fellow D3 fans … where to eat/stay and things not to miss on game day (besides the game) in Alliance and Whitewater.
8. How do the teams match up, in specific areas? Who is healthy and/or banged-up?

It’s that time again — probably way past it. When we have 264 comments and counting on last week’s Game Day Updates blog post, it’s time to start looking ahead.

The 32-team field has been drawn (Nov. 12) and quartered (through last weekend). Here we have eight teams remaining and four quarterfinal matchups — perhaps the best foursome in recent memory, if I didn’t make that completely clear in Around the Nation. I think we could see four single-digit margins of victory. And even though Pat Coleman and I provide this week’s expected final scores, and they don’t all fall in the single-digit range, we both know we’re looking at eight teams matched against opponents they can beat, should they put it all together Saturday.

It’s our third consecutive week of predicting playoff scores, and we do so not so much to flaunt our knowledge or embarass ourselves, but just to provide an idea of what’s expected to happen, so you’ll know you’re seeing history in the making should the results go off course. Pat has taken the wrong winner in just three of the 24 games so far, while I rebounded after a rough opening week to go 7-1 last week. Pat and I both missed one of the East bracket games and correctly hit the winners in the others.

Why is that relevant? Because our scores — done separately, without consulting each other — are again very similar. That may not speak much to what will happen, but it does paint a clear picture of what’s expected.

Wesley (South) Bracket quarterfinal in Dover, Del.:
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 23
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 29, Wesley 28

Mount Union (North) Bracket quarterfinal in Alliance, Ohio:
Pat: Mount Union 42, Capital 21
Keith: Mount Union 35, Capital 23

Wilkes (East) Bracket quarterfinal in Pittsford, N.Y:
Pat: Rowan 20, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Rowan 23, St. John Fisher 21

UW-Whitewater (West) Bracket quarterfinal in Whitewater, Wis.:
Pat: UW-Whitewater 31, St. John’s 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 28, St. John’s 17

If Pat and I are wrong, and all four games are decided by a touchdown our less, that would be a first in the eight years of expanded playoffs. I looked back at the seven previous 28- and 32-team brackets, and found that all but three quarterfinal games were decided by seven points or fewer (12 games) or 25 points or more (13 games). No season has featured two margins like Pat and I are predicting in Alliance and Whitewater, but three (’02, ’03 and ’05) have featured three games decided by a TD or less.

It makes sense, as the early rounds have always seemed to separate the “playoff teams” from the “Stagg Bowl contenders.”

The road to Salem continues Saturday.

Feel free to comment on our picks or make your own below.

It’s that time of year when fans start to wonder about their team’s chances at the playoffs and where they might land if they do make it. Considering that we just finished Week 8 of 11, it’s appropriate and totally legitimate to start asking those questions now.

This is also about the time of year when my inbox starts filling up with specific questions about specific teams. So here’s what I’m going to do. Instead of just giving my response, I’ll open it up to other D3football.com staff and readers, especially those with intricate knowledge of the Division III handbook and such. That way, if you’re reaching for a glimmer of hope, you’ll have more chances at hearing an answer you like, although I have to warn you … even with 32 playoff spots, 202 of you get none, and that group usually includes some deserving teams.

If talk of Pools A, B and C confuses you, I suggest you start at our FAQ Page and the accompanying playoff primer:

After that, we’ll start answering individual questions. Although I can’t get to it right this second, here’s the one I’ll start with:

Hey,
First off, I love your column and the whole website. You guys do a great job and it is the only place I go to get my small school football info! Keep up the great work!

Ok, on to the important stuff.
Now I am a little confused about what it takes to get into the playoffs with the new spots. What are the chances of Depauw getting an at-large spot. I know the loss to Millsaps really hurt, and that we won’t have any huge wins. But, right now we are 35 in the Quality Win Index, and if we win out, I would like to think we have a shot at the top 25 in that category. Do you think winning out would be enough to make the playoffs? What if Millsaps wins the SCAC and Trinity then presumably gets an at-large, is there a chance of two SCAC at-larges? Any thoughts you have would be much appreciated, and I hope you get to come to campus for a game sometime this year!

Keep up the good work!
Drew Donovan

I’ll do my best to group all these questions and answers here. For those of you that find this interesting and see similar talk on Post Patterns or elsewhere on the blog, feel free to direct people here.

At some point soon, we’ll do official projections. We also publish the Quality of Wins index that the committee uses to judge strength of schedule when selecting teams.