It’s that time of year when fans start to wonder about their team’s chances at the playoffs and where they might land if they do make it. Considering that we just finished Week 8 of 11, it’s appropriate and totally legitimate to start asking those questions now.
This is also about the time of year when my inbox starts filling up with specific questions about specific teams. So here’s what I’m going to do. Instead of just giving my response, I’ll open it up to other D3football.com staff and readers, especially those with intricate knowledge of the Division III handbook and such. That way, if you’re reaching for a glimmer of hope, you’ll have more chances at hearing an answer you like, although I have to warn you … even with 32 playoff spots, 202 of you get none, and that group usually includes some deserving teams.
If talk of Pools A, B and C confuses you, I suggest you start at our FAQ Page and the accompanying playoff primer:
After that, we’ll start answering individual questions. Although I can’t get to it right this second, here’s the one I’ll start with:
Hey,
First off, I love your column and the whole website. You guys do a great job and it is the only place I go to get my small school football info! Keep up the great work!Ok, on to the important stuff.
Now I am a little confused about what it takes to get into the playoffs with the new spots. What are the chances of Depauw getting an at-large spot. I know the loss to Millsaps really hurt, and that we won’t have any huge wins. But, right now we are 35 in the Quality Win Index, and if we win out, I would like to think we have a shot at the top 25 in that category. Do you think winning out would be enough to make the playoffs? What if Millsaps wins the SCAC and Trinity then presumably gets an at-large, is there a chance of two SCAC at-larges? Any thoughts you have would be much appreciated, and I hope you get to come to campus for a game sometime this year!Keep up the good work!
Drew Donovan
I’ll do my best to group all these questions and answers here. For those of you that find this interesting and see similar talk on Post Patterns or elsewhere on the blog, feel free to direct people here.
At some point soon, we’ll do official projections. We also publish the Quality of Wins index that the committee uses to judge strength of schedule when selecting teams.
I had been wondering about that regarding CMU. It is NOT an impressive schedule, not helped by the fact that Thiel has been weak this year and the rest of the PAC teams we play are terrible. I still think that anyone who has been as dominant as CMU has been this year has to get in on principle, even if it means leaving out a W+J or a pool C team. Otherwise, the 32 team playoff system doesn’t serve its purpose.
Keith,
I agree that there are many things left to be decided on the field. My seeds are based on projected winners in the final weeks. I was projecting Whitworth over Linfield. I agree if Linfield wins, they should be in (there is no shame to a close loss to HS ((21-6). I really do not think that Ithaca and Alfred can run the table. If either does, they should also be in. This is just a fun thing that I like to do this time of year and I thought that I would share it with other D3 fans.
Thank you for the clarification on seeding. I read my post and I see how it could be confusing (my post was late last night). This is a great site.
D3Keith,
I appreciate you commenting on my last post about CMU. I realize that dropping out of conferences is really not a possibility for numerous reasons like you said (Travel, All-Conference, Scheduling). This week will be big for CMU against WashU. In my opinion if CMU loses this week against WashU then CMU should not get in. 9-1 against a “weaker” schedule is not that impressive. I agree that its difficult to line up for 10 Saturdays and win them all but not when you play a weak schedule. My question for you is how will it work if Linfield wins against Whitworth then will Linfield be a pool B bid and Whitworth a pool C? What if Whitworth wins then is Linfield out? Any thoughts would be appreciated.
If I were a CMU fan, I would root for Whitworth.
What an up coming week
# 1 vs # 4 and # 2 vs # 6
Carnegie Mellon is undefeated, but the teams they have beat are a combined 12-36. Their remaining teams have a combined record of 12-11. Why is running the table against that kind of schedule a guarantee to get a team in? I think they should get punished for an extremely soft schedule.
Because when 32 teams are in the playoffs there’s room for Carnegie Mellon if it runs the table.
i agree with pcole
If CMU doesn’t run the table, its QOWI is not going to stack up very well against other one-loss teams. But I wouldn’t advocate leaving out a 10-0 team if they played anyone in, say, the Top 117 (as in, the upper 50% of D-III).
Well, you guys lost me long ago … but I did learn one thing: If you make a list that goes to number 8 and follow it with a right-paren, you get HAPPY 8)
maxwell,
my prevailing theory regarding unbeatens is that there are no losses to judge them by. So while Carnegie Mellon is playing a weak schedule, there’s no data to suggest they wouldn’t have beaten stronger teams.
I think in general, there should be a reward for going unbeaten, and like Pat says, there are 32 openings.
Also, the schedules are set as much as two years in advance. Games may have looked tough when scheduled (i.e. Thiel) and end up not being that way. It’s hard to believe a team like Carnegie Mellon, a perennial winner but not a playoff contender, would assemble a weak schedule on purpose. They are mostly looking for like-minded institutions, I would bet.
Of course, there are no guarantees Carnegie Mellon will go unbeaten, or even beat Thiel, but the new system should eliminate occurrences like 1998, when Emory & Henry was 10-0 and ranked fifth in the south, behind four other undefeated teams, when four made it from each region in the old 16-team bracket. I believe there is a similar Hardin-Simmons complaint from ’98 or ’99.
I agree though, that Carnegie Mellon going 10-0 against that schedule might not be as impressive as, say, Baldwin-Wallace going 8-2 in the OAC, but whaddya gonna do?
Obviously, Wilkes has been very good so far so we’re not on any kind of bubble. But, where do you see my Colonels being seeded? And who does it look like we’d have to play? Please don’t tell me Rowan because they crushed us last year in the playoffs. We’re good and experienced, but we play in a fairly weak conference.
What are the chances of Montclair state making the playoffs if they win the rest of there games and finish 7-3
Shenk15:
I got the same question in e-mail. Maybe it was you, but I don’t know for sure, so:
Raymond,
I don’t think so. Even with 32 teams in the playoffs, no less than 21 of those teams are conference champions, and four other bids are guaranteed to conferences which don’t have automatic bids. That means Montclair has to be one of the seven best teams to not win its conference in the entire nation, which is 234 teams.
With three losses, all of them in-region (an important criteria for the selection committee), I don’t think Montclair has a chance. There are about 9-10 one-loss teams looking the the seven bids, then most of the two-loss teams would probably grade out ahead of the Red Hawks on the playoff committee’s criteria.
If you want to know more about how the playoff field is picked, there’s a Frequently Asked Questions page on D3football.com, and a group of answers under playoffs that would help.
Let me know if you need anything else.
—
Keith McMillan
D3football.com National Columnist
Keith@D3football.com
As for Wilkes’ seed, it could go one of many ways. Because of your location, you’re pretty much available to any of the teams. We’re guessing Curry will play at Springfield … anything else seems feasbile.
Hobart at Wilkes
Union at Wilkes
Rowan at Wilkes
Cortland at Wilkes
Rochester/Alfred/Ithaca if they sneak in …
The good news? I think you’ve got a home game wrapped if you beat King’s.