Projecting the playoffs

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It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 22 automatic bids, 10 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold.

New Jersey Bracket
1. New Jersey (Pool A)
2. Curry (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. RPI (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Hobart (C)
7. Hartwick (A)
8. Widener (A)
We tried projecting this bracket without figuring out who would win the Liberty League, but it wasn’t doable. So we projected Hobart and RPI to win their games, which gives RPI the automatic bid. Hartwick and St. John Fisher win in Week 11 and Hartwick gets the automatic bid. Salisbury gets moved into this bracket because there aren’t enough East teams that qualify.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Trinity, Texas (A)
6. Capital (C)
7. Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
North Carolina Wesleyan can get to Washington and Jefferson within the prescribed 500 miles, and Capital can get to Muhlenberg as well. Interesting how when you lift Salisbury out of the bracket, you get the two Texas teams at 4-5.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Wheaton, Ill. (A)
5. Franklin (A)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
7. MIAA champ (A)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
The travel works out in this bracket, even from Mequon, Wis., to Alliance, Ohio. We qualified nine teams for the playoffs from the North Region, which filled this bracket after we moved Capital to the South.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Redlands (C)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Cal Lutheran (A)
Alright, NCAA penny-pinching could rear its ugly head here. But even the NCAA couldn’t possibly make Redlands and Cal Lutheran play again, one week later, right? Right?? Let’s hope so, anyway. So we’re sending Whitworth to Redlands and Cal Lutheran to UW-Whitewater in the Danny Jones Reunion Bowl. Bethel can’t play St. John’s again, unfortunately for St. Norbert, because Norbert gets the call. Bethel would be at Central.

We end up with three teams with two regional losses in Pool C in this projection: Capital, Hobart and Bethel. Occidental, with one regional loss and the weakest opponents’ winning percentage among one-loss teams (currently .391), gets passed in the regional rankings when Redlands beats Cal Lutheran and gets left home. Waynesburg’s .424 is the second-lowest.

We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.

67 thoughts on “Projecting the playoffs”

  1. You projected some winners and losers this weekend, but not for Randolph Macon and Hampden Sydney. Are you trying not to test Keith’s impartiality? (wink) Just kidding – Some interesting match-ups on there. I think that’s a real fair bracket.

  2. very good bracket…
    however, when bethel beats st john’s and alfred beats sjf it is going to make things interesting

  6. I find the South Bracket there to be most interesting, with Capital imported and a legitimate Texas-on-Texas matchup. That would be one bracket where “upsets” look really possible … especially if we go back to how well No. 8 NCW matched up with No. 2 Wesley Week 1. Could also mean you have Capital at Wesley (467 miles via MQ, so no flight) in Week 2, if the bracket was set up 3-6, 2-7 on the same side. Which would send UMHB possibly back up to W&J, site of a 52-16 beatdown in ’04.

    This won’t hold of course, but it is nice to get your mind around some of the potential matchups.

    MSJ-Case in the North would be like that CMU-Millsaps game last year, guaranteeing one team a slot in the second round, which would be a big step for the HCAC or the UAA to do it twice in a row.

    Norbert’s the type of team that would play a lot more home playoff games if it weren’t in the West.

    The Redlands/Cal Lu rematch idea stinks. It makes sense, but you know I hate rematches when there are options. I like what you came up with Pat … but I can see two SCIACs meeting in the first round. Saving a flight out of there is rare. At least one would get a home game and second-round appearance.

    Definitely one of the weirder collections of Cs we’ve seen in a while.

  7. I realize it is only the 7/8 seeds, but I’ve assumed the MIAA rep would get the ‘coveted’ trip to Alliance. I’m curious what your reasoning was for the 6-4 MIAA team over 7-3 CUW?

  8. oops. posted this on the wrong thread.

    repost:

    pat/keith,

    did you consider moving wheaton west vs st norberts and leaving capital north? seems like it could work the same way as you have it now. puts cal lu at wash jeff maybe? still a flight.

    also, what if case loses saturday? are they a viable pool c?

  9. this bracket must have been more difficult than usual. a few twists this weekend turns this whole project upside down.

  10. I responded on the wrong thread, but also said you probably meant to post here. Oops.

    Wait, I think I can edit.

    Aw, heck yeah, I can.

    D3Keith Says:

    November 8th, 2007 at 1:08 am e

    You probably mean to have that comment on the other blog post.

    Some people are not too confident in Case as a C. Without crunching the numbers, I’d guess it would depend on what they are up against given Saturday’s results.

    I did not participate in creating the projection.

    CLU at W&J seems like something that would be avoided.

    Will also delete the ones that are out of place on the other thread, like they never happened. Sound good, usee?

  11. I guess a better question on west/south is: wouldn’t it be easier to move wheaton west tthan capital south? wheaton is close to st. norberts/UWW/central….but pat probably saw that as creating more problems for west/south. ok to delete my misguided previous post. thanks

  12. Pat –

    Thanks for putting this together. In reviewing your proposed brackets there are several teams that have similar / same records (ie – 2 losses) that higher SOSs / OWPs.

    I understand you made some assumptionson upcoming game results that are probably made ona much more informed basis. As I looked at key games, I assumed that the higher ranked team won and the loser became a Pool C candidate. I also assumed that one lose teams that were ranked in this ranking should be pooled with 2 loss teams for purposes of ranking the teams based on their SOS OWP. * Additionally, if a team in a particular region was ranked higher than another team in that region, i followed the regional ranking orders versus the SOS, then I went back to the SOS at the point the next threshold was met.

    In my quick review, the following teams represented the top seven as we sit here today:

    One loss teams*-
    1. Mt St. Joseph (N 6) / 8-1 / OWP 47.5 /OWP Rank 144

    Two loss teams and one loss teams ranked below two loss teams in their region –
    2. Capital (N 7) / 7-2 / OWP 53.4 / OWP Rank 73
    3. Whittenberg (N 8) / 7-2 / OWP 62.8 / OWP Rank 13
    4. North Central (N 9) / 7-2 / OWP 56.5 / OWP Rank 42
    5. Hobart (E 5) / 7-2 / OWP 55.6 / OWP Rank 51
    6. Millsaps (S 8) / 7-2 / OWP 54.1 / OWP Rank 62
    7. Hartwick (S 8) / 7-2 / OWP 53.5/ OWP Rank 72
    8. Bethel (W 5) / 7-1 / OWP 48.6 / OWP Rank 132 (assumed loss to St. John’s making 2 losses)
    9. Wartburg (W 6) / 7-1/ OWP 50.7 / OWP Rank 107(assumed loss to Central making 2 losses)
    10. Occidental* (W 7) / 7-1/ OWP 39.1 / OWP Rank 208

    The differences in the above and your projection include the following:
    1. Hartwick in as a Pool A and St. John Fisher in as a Pool C in the East — sort of a wash.
    2. Whittenburg (N 8 / OWP Rank 13); North Central (N 9 / OWP Rank 42) and;Millsaps (S 8 / OWP Rank 62) falling mathematically in spots 5, 6 and 7 versus inclusion in your proposed bracket of Bethel (W 5 / OWP Rank 132); Redlands (W 8 / OWP Rank103) and; Whitworth (W 9 / OWP Rank 98).

    What is the logic of including the three west teams that have lower OWP Ranks?

    Also, one item of note is that it looks like both North Central and Hobart have games this week-end that reasonably could go either way. If either of these lose, teams 8 and 9 move up in my estimate.

    I understood that the best remaining 7 teams filled the Pool C slots regardless of region. Is there a requirement to have a minimum number of teams from each region?

    If the thinking was subjective, what was your thinking in regard to including the three West teams with lower OWP Rankings than other teams on the board / list?

    Thanks again for your work.

  14. Fowler57:

    Probably not very good.

    UW-Whitewater has been ranked in front of the Johnnies in every regional ranking thus far. It would take a Warhawks loss to UW-Plattville (1-5 in WIAC) and a Johnnies win over Bethel for SJU to take that spot. The former isn’t likely to happen.

  15. If Capital wasn’t depleted on offense, they’d have a chance to win the South. Their defense is more than good enough, but their offense is worse than HORRIBLE.

  16. Interesting that you say Mequon is within the 500 miles to Alliance. Mapquest and Yahoo Maps agree with you. MSN’s mappoint says it’s 518 miles. I thought MSN was the “official” mileage of the NCAA. Of course, after last years Texas matchup when they seemingly had an alternative, it’s hard to say what maps they are using.

  17. What is going to happen with Wheaton (IL) when they lose to Ill Wes. this weekend? Maybe dropping to #7 in the North to play Wabash (this will be not “scrimage”. Or to #5 then just have to switch sites with Franklin. Great job on the “Projections”. Alfred gets screwed again even if they beat SJF? Possible!
    “We’ll KEEP the Bell”

  18. Interesting. We’ll have to look at that. But easily adjusted without making too much difference in the bracket because we can send CUW to Wabash and the MIAA winner to Alliance.

  19. Bright guy: We aren’t projecting Alfred to beat SJF but if they did then it would open the door for Alfred or Waynesburg.

  20. Don’t sleep on Union. They have the highest probability in the liberty league to make the playoffs. This weekend at the U will be a great game. I have a feeling that Union will ultimatley be the team that comes out of the Liberty League. An interesting note on the LL is that nobody controls their own destiny this weekend.

  22. Brightguy, I’m assuming you’re a Wally. Although I hope I’m wrong, as I understand it Wheaton dominated us in the scrimmage and even though it was just a scrimmage, they beat us badly nonetheless, and that was with Huff. I would really not want to face Wheaton until I had to and I think Wabash gets a really good draw playing MIAA and then Case Western. Especially with games at home.
    I think Franklin should get a home game over Wheaton. Wheaton is ranked higher just b/c they had a higher preseason ranking over Franklin. Franklin has lost one game all year to the #7 team in the nation by two points on the road and it took the fallen Little Giants QB getting 499 total yards (475-passing and 24 rushing) to beat the Grizzlies. Besides that they’ve gone 8-0. I think they’ve proven enough to get a home play-off game.

    Depauw to Hell, We’ll keep the Bell.

  23. Assuming the regions are seeded as such:
    1. North
    2. West
    3. South
    4. East

    I don’t think Capital will get sent to the South. If they get moved, it will be East.
    Reason being is I think the NCAA will eliminate any chance the Stagg teams could be from the same conference. Even though no one (myself included) expects a beat up Capital to win more than their 1st round game, I think the NCAA will guarantee it by pairing those regions together in semi’s. Salisbury staying in the South and moving Capital east makes this a moot point.

  24. HSCoach — interesting conspiracy theory but not sure they think that way. 🙂 Moving Capital East puts them in airplanes after the first weekend.

  25. BrightGuy,

    good analysis but I think the way the pool C conversation goes (as discussed on the pool c board) is like the musical chairs analogy posted elsewhere. Even if NCC is a stronger pool C candidate than Bethel the fact is that Bethel will be one of the first Pool C teams at the table from the west and NCC will be 3rd at best from the north.

  28. If montclair st. wins there last game and finishes 8-2, how do they not qualify for ncaa at large bid. Assuming Hobart wins their game and finished 8-2 as well, there strenght of schedule isnt as tough as montclair. How do they qualify better then montclair. Another scneraio is say Hobart loses to a good Rochester team and they finish 7-3, who fills in for the spot of Hobart.

  29. After seeing your predictions for the seeding of each region I was just wondering how you think things will turn out and who will win each region. Also when there are only 4 teams left which region winner will play which.

  30. Pat –

    Thanks for your follow-up.

    If you have time and this is a fair question – How do the 12 teams including in the rankings this week stack up? In other words, in yur view, who is #8 through #19 on the Pool C pecking order at this point?

    Also, is the most significant secondary factor to OWP geography in most cases? Just trying to understand.

    Thanks.

  31. You know, if Mount Union, Whitewater, Mary Hardin Baylor or Capital, and Curry or Hobart win regionals, we will have purple overload in the semis.

  32. At first glance, I’d think that either Montclair State or Cortland State might be in line for a Pool C ahead of a second LL or E-8 team this year. Montclair has a slightly higher SOS rating than Hobart, and a significantly higher SOS than SJF and Hartwick. Cortland has a significantly higher SOS than SJF.

    That certainly constitutes enough teams qualifying to keep Salisbury in the South and Capital in the North. It probably knocks Whitworth out of B, though, and bumps Concordia into the West.

    My humble .02 worth.

  33. Sorry–hit submit too early.

    To continue my thought, I think it’s fair to say that any combination of two of the following teams will be the last two in/last two out:

    Whitworth
    Capital
    Second LL team
    Second E-8 team
    Second NJAC team

    I’d think that Montclair is a lock, given that they also hold a significant SOS advantage over Whitworth. Putting Montclair in the East bumps Salisbury back South and preserves the no-flights-until-the-finals MO. It moves Capital back North, if they get in ahead of Wittenberg, which I find unlikely given the serious SOS advantage Witt has over Capital.

    Witt or Capital in the North bumps CU-W into the West, where they match up with UW-W in the first round and preserves the no-flights scenario from the South in the West, too.

  35. No offense to Montclair and Cortland but Hobart is a VERY good team that lost two very close games to two good teams when they were playing at a weak level. There is no doubt in my mind that Hobart can play with Montclair amd Corltand, if you lose 30-0 there is no reason you should be playing in the postseason… No offense… If Hobart lost a game that badly, I’d say the same… Hobart RPI’s loss is looking really bad and can come nack to haunt them, unless Union can beat RPI and Hobart can pull off a win against a very tough U of R… A simiar scenario happened last year if I can remember…

  36. In-region head-to-head seems to be the third of the at-large selection criteria, based on the way I read them, pat. But for the sake of the argument, it doesn’t change the basic premise.

    Maybe neither one gets a Pool C, but with Witt’s SOS in the Top 20 and the fact that regional record and in-region SOS are the top two criteria, I’d say that they trump the head-to-head.

  37. Just take a look at the regional rankings — if Witt’s OWP were that important wouldn’t Witt be ahead of Capital now?

    I think that if regional winning percentage (really, in-region losses) are equal, then head-to-head is next. And you see that in Capital (.534) over Wittenberg (.628) and Occidental (.391) over Redlands (.514).

    Plus, take a look at Witt’s OOWP and you get an idea how Witt got that high OWP.

  38. Danimal814:
    I am a Wally (Fan), and that was “Pre-Season” with the o-line trying to fill in some spots (1 returning senior), top WR out injured, starting NT sitting after first series. And I believe the final score was only 17 – 0. Now I think we are healthier, our back up QB has done a great job since starting and their “Manimal” on the D-line is out. I didn’t say weather or not I liked that they COULD be moved to #7, I would much rather play the MIAA team in the first round.

  39. I can’t wait to keep the bell (for the third year in a row), then play Mount Union in the Playoffs….this should be a great couple of weeks

    O i forgot- Depauw Swallows

  41. The Hobart vs. Montclair argument is a valid one. Both have the same regional records, their 2 losses are both to teams with combined 15-3 records, their SoS is very similar with MSU holding a .009 edge in OWP and .025 in OOWP.

    MSU has the impressive 1 pt win over Wesley on their resume from week 4, while Hobart’s has the upset over then #11 Alfred in week 9.

    The biggest difference and why the committee might give Hobart the nod is that Hobart’s 2 losses were by a total of 7 pts while MSU’s were by a total of 40.

    Although it’s not stated, I wonder whether or not the Committee considers “past performance” in the more subjective areas of their selection? Where I am going here is that if Hobart doesn’t get the LL Pool A, would there recent tourney history of being competitive in 2005 and 2006 come into play?

  43. I’d say Whitworth is included because they have clinched the NWC championship and winning this weekend gives them 8 wins and 6-0 conference record. NWC doesn’t get an automatic bid until next season, but ceremoniously should get one this season. That said…you mention avoiding rematches…but if you have Whitworth playing Redlands then that right there is a rematch from week # 1 of this season. Tough scheduling.

  44. where does Cortland fall in all of this when they beat Ithaca this weekend for the Jug? Any chance at the playoffs? Having two loses will hurt their chances. What’s your opinion?

  45. Since everyone is talking about Capital being in the playoffs, and wondering where there going to land. People should think about the game this weekend, and has anybody thought about if Capital gets beat then there will be 3 teams in the OAC 7-3 with Baldwin Wallace on Top. Would that mean the OAC will only have one team in the Playoffs this year??? Or will the ncaa take a 7-3 team??

  46. mjbcoug: I mention conference rematches. The NCAA has no qualms whatsoever about a non-conference rematch. In fact, it happens fairly regularly. The NCAA also has no sentiment about a pre-automatic bid.

    Tonyg45: We have only seen a few teams with two regional losses get Pool C bids. Never a team with three losses. If Capital loses then Mount Union is the only OAC team in the field.

    shoeboy: I feel confident about Central (and St. John’s) getting in if they lose Saturday.

  47. Cortland is in a tough spot b/c although they could finish the season 8-2, their in region record would only be 7-2 (vs. other Pool C contenders with 8-2 or 9-1 records) since I believe their game against Morrisville was out of region.

    Also, their SoS at 102 isn’t as high as other Pool C contenders like Montclair (43), Hobart (51) etc.

  48. If Cortland St. loses to ithaca they are def eliminated from the tourney. Yes If st. john fisher wins and hartwick wins, hartwick gets the auto-bid. That making st. john fisher 9-1 but with a SOS of (153). I can’t see why a team who has an easy schedule could make it over a Montclair st. with SOS (44) and a hobart (53). Even be 9-1 you can still be held from the dance I.E. Cortland last year. Either Montclair st. and/or Hobart deserve to be in east bracket with good records on a tough schedule, i cant see why Salisbury was needed to be added to the east.

  49. Union5, I’m crtainly not counting out your Dutchmen. I believe (and am obviously hoping) Union will beat fading RPI if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot like they did last weekend vs. Hobart. This was a battle of 2 heavy weights, punching it out. However, Union committed several very foolish penalties at very critical points in the game that really cost them. (ie. Two 3rd down personal fouls in a Hobart scoring drive late in the game) Although very unusual for me to say, I’ll swallow hard and say it…. “GO UNION!!!” Watch for a high scoring Hobart-Rochester game, the 100th meeting between the two schools. Both teams are hot. Should be great game.

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