It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.
This is where we take the 22 automatic bids, 10 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.
In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?
First, the basics:
Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold.
New Jersey Bracket
1. New Jersey (Pool A)
2. Curry (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. RPI (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Hobart (C)
7. Hartwick (A)
8. Widener (A)
We tried projecting this bracket without figuring out who would win the Liberty League, but it wasn’t doable. So we projected Hobart and RPI to win their games, which gives RPI the automatic bid. Hartwick and St. John Fisher win in Week 11 and Hartwick gets the automatic bid. Salisbury gets moved into this bracket because there aren’t enough East teams that qualify.
Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Trinity, Texas (A)
6. Capital (C)
7. Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
North Carolina Wesleyan can get to Washington and Jefferson within the prescribed 500 miles, and Capital can get to Muhlenberg as well. Interesting how when you lift Salisbury out of the bracket, you get the two Texas teams at 4-5.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Wheaton, Ill. (A)
5. Franklin (A)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
7. MIAA champ (A)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
The travel works out in this bracket, even from Mequon, Wis., to Alliance, Ohio. We qualified nine teams for the playoffs from the North Region, which filled this bracket after we moved Capital to the South.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Redlands (C)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Cal Lutheran (A)
Alright, NCAA penny-pinching could rear its ugly head here. But even the NCAA couldn’t possibly make Redlands and Cal Lutheran play again, one week later, right? Right?? Let’s hope so, anyway. So we’re sending Whitworth to Redlands and Cal Lutheran to UW-Whitewater in the Danny Jones Reunion Bowl. Bethel can’t play St. John’s again, unfortunately for St. Norbert, because Norbert gets the call. Bethel would be at Central.
We end up with three teams with two regional losses in Pool C in this projection: Capital, Hobart and Bethel. Occidental, with one regional loss and the weakest opponents’ winning percentage among one-loss teams (currently .391), gets passed in the regional rankings when Redlands beats Cal Lutheran and gets left home. Waynesburg’s .424 is the second-lowest.
We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.
I am a Cortland fan and no way they make it thanks to the stinker they put up against Brockport and getting smoked by TCNJ. Beat Brockport and they would have an arguement but that game will haunt them.
Gents this is my first post so if I screw something up I apologize in advance!
North Region I think can get pretty messed up this weekend if I was looking at things the right way
Weaton @ Illinois Wesleyan – Ill Wes playing for a possible tie for the CCIW (with North Central playing Carthage to get into the mix to) Weaton (8-1) lost to Carthage (7-2) last week while Illinois Wesleyan beat Carthage earlier in the year. I think this is going be a very decisive game for both the CCIW and the playoffs.
Case @ Ohio Wesleyan – A presumable overrated Case team (according to a lot of people on d3football) playing a mediocre Ohio Wesleyan team.
If Weaton loses, Case loses, Franklin win, Mount St. Joe win how does that scrammble the North Region rankings?
If things go that way I think its really going fugde things up for the north teams
Just some food for thought
rams15,
Are you saying that if SJFC beats Alfred this weekend (a very tough task, hard to see Alfred dropping 3 in a row) and finishes 9-1 they don’t deserve to make the playoffs but instead should stay home in favor of Montclair St.??
What will most likely happen if Case Western Reserve loses its final game of the season to Ohio Wesleyan and falls to 9-1? I would think they would fall from the top 3 Pool B teams, right? Also, Pat you mention that Oxy currently has the worst opponents’ winning percentage (.391) among one loss teams. If my math is right, Case’s opponents are currently even worse at .368. They have played some truly horrible teams, and it looks like they could be the one loss team whose opponent’s winning percentage is among the worst, if not THE worst, if they
(sorry, pressed enter too soon)……if they were to fall to 9-1? Would they still get in, or not? And how would this shake things up elsewhere?
When I ask if they would still get in, I’m obviously referring to if they would get a Pool C, since it wouldn’t look like a Pool B would be likely if Salisbury, Wesley, and Whitworth win their games.
SJFC1993,
im not sayin they dont deserve it but still with the schedule they have they should be 9-1. But like you said they have a tough task in front of them in beating Alfred. If Alfred wins and assuming Hartwick beats a bad Utica team, Alfred wins the head to head gets the auto-bid and puts Hartwick in second place in the E8 cause of their head to head over SJF. Now back to defending Montclair, do you take the 8-2 Hartwick with SOS (72) over Montclair 8-2 with SOS (43).
rams15:
I disagree…well you probably figured out why by now…but really: You are admittedly placing too much emphasis on SOS and not on the teams themselves. You indicate that with such an easy schedule…they (SJF) should be 9-1. What if they were 10-0 with an “easy” schedule? Would they still be out in favor of an 8-2 team with a better objective (SOS) analysis? The fact is that SJF is and has been a Top 10 team all season, and if they beat AU, they will, at a minimum, finish as the 6 team in the country. If Mount Union goes 10-0 with the easiest schedule in the country, do they not get in either because they had a weak schedule or do you look past the schedule and actually analyze the quality of the team?
Montclair is obviously a strong East team….but they lost 2 games so far and that, no matter how tough your schedule is does not cut it.
either way… go C STATE this weekend… beat the bombers
I love this time of yesar,. the forum boards on this site are always bumping! Its great to see the ineterst in D-3, the different opinions, and the commintments to peoples respective squads! Good luck to everyone making a playoff run!
For Union to beat RPI:
1.) Catellier must get the start
2.) Union must be disciplined or I am calling for the return of Bagnoli
3.) Both Tillo and Coney must carry the ball well and Tillo must play some FB to clear the way (go O-line!)
4.) The Dutchmen DB’s must defend the pass better than they did last week!
5.) Union must run the ball if they get it inside the 5 and not pass their downs away like usual
I hope King has had is hat on backwards all week and by the end of the game tomorrow puts it on backwards again. GO UNION!
SJFF82, the rise of the conferences and the expansion of the playoffs has made the 10-0 question virtually moot. With the exception of the UAA, the ACFC, the independents and a quirky NCAC outcome, a 10-0 team has won the Pool A bid for the conference. If a team is not the Pool A, or an undefeated Pool B, then they are hoping for a “do-over”.
Good luck to all, I think that we will see a spirited debate about the 32nd, 33rd and 34th teams, but the opposite side of that argument is why did they lose the game(s) that they lost.
What if Hobart and PRI Lose this week, what does that mean for Cortland? Will Union have a chance at playoffs even if they have 3 loses?
Well, Union will get the automatic bid if Hobart and RPI lose so yes, they’ll have a shot if Hobart and RPI lose.
You need more losses elsewhere in the country, not just the East.
rams15,
Fisher has an easy schedule? I believe the last time I checked, Hartwick, Ithaca and Alfred were ranked 8th, 9th and 10th respectively in the east. That means the Empire 8 has 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in the east! Doesn’t sound too weak to me!
All these projections and Muhlenberg shut out East region #1 TCNJ and shutout Union (possible LL team). How high does that get the Mules who are 9-0 so far?
sjf, not to mention Rochester (winners of 6 straight) and always solid Springfield. It’s tough not to have few “cream puffs” on the D-III schedule, but SJF has no more than most. I’ve also seen SJF play and believe they’re loaded. As I’ve indicated before, SJF should handle AU without much trouble. I’ve seen AU too and believe they were overrated for much of the season. They have turned out to be a good, not great team as evidenced by the last 2 weeks when they have been soundly beaten.