It’s that time again — probably way past it. When we have 264 comments and counting on last week’s Game Day Updates blog post, it’s time to start looking ahead.
The 32-team field has been drawn (Nov. 12) and quartered (through last weekend). Here we have eight teams remaining and four quarterfinal matchups — perhaps the best foursome in recent memory, if I didn’t make that completely clear in Around the Nation. I think we could see four single-digit margins of victory. And even though Pat Coleman and I provide this week’s expected final scores, and they don’t all fall in the single-digit range, we both know we’re looking at eight teams matched against opponents they can beat, should they put it all together Saturday.
It’s our third consecutive week of predicting playoff scores, and we do so not so much to flaunt our knowledge or embarass ourselves, but just to provide an idea of what’s expected to happen, so you’ll know you’re seeing history in the making should the results go off course. Pat has taken the wrong winner in just three of the 24 games so far, while I rebounded after a rough opening week to go 7-1 last week. Pat and I both missed one of the East bracket games and correctly hit the winners in the others.
Why is that relevant? Because our scores — done separately, without consulting each other — are again very similar. That may not speak much to what will happen, but it does paint a clear picture of what’s expected.
Wesley (South) Bracket quarterfinal in Dover, Del.:
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 23
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 29, Wesley 28
Mount Union (North) Bracket quarterfinal in Alliance, Ohio:
Pat: Mount Union 42, Capital 21
Keith: Mount Union 35, Capital 23
Wilkes (East) Bracket quarterfinal in Pittsford, N.Y:
Pat: Rowan 20, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Rowan 23, St. John Fisher 21
UW-Whitewater (West) Bracket quarterfinal in Whitewater, Wis.:
Pat: UW-Whitewater 31, St. John’s 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 28, St. John’s 17
If Pat and I are wrong, and all four games are decided by a touchdown our less, that would be a first in the eight years of expanded playoffs. I looked back at the seven previous 28- and 32-team brackets, and found that all but three quarterfinal games were decided by seven points or fewer (12 games) or 25 points or more (13 games). No season has featured two margins like Pat and I are predicting in Alliance and Whitewater, but three (’02, ’03 and ’05) have featured three games decided by a TD or less.
It makes sense, as the early rounds have always seemed to separate the “playoff teams” from the “Stagg Bowl contenders.”
The road to Salem continues Saturday.
Feel free to comment on our picks or make your own below.
SJF 31 Rowan 20
Now, commenting as just a regular guy, and not the ‘official lead item to the blog writer,’ let me say that I’ll have more respect for the criticisms of anyone who doesn’t like my expected scores if they also share their expected scores here.
Obviously the fans of St. John Fisher, St. John’s, Capital and Wesley think and hope I’ll be wrong. I could honestly see all of those teams doing well on Saturday, but picking winners is all about actually picking winners.
And so it goes.
A couple of tidbits I promised in Around the Nation:
> With three of the four games on Eastern Time, fans across the country should have the chance to catch the end of the Johnnies-Warhawks game in a couple of ways. The St. Cloud Times runs a MIAC blog, and I’m assuming they plan to update it pregame, at the end of every quarter and postgame, like they did last week from Whitworth.
Also, UW-Whitewater’s internet broadcast partner Penn Atlantic (/www.pennatlantic.com) is schedule to have the game available for viewing for free. It may only be footage from the coaches’ tape or press box, I’m not exactly sure how it works. But even if it’s not a slickly-produced TV feed, it beats what you can get for most D3 games.
As always, our Weekly Schedules page should have audio/webcast links to all the games, through NCAASports.com. Pat Cummings and I will be at Wesley … and for anything else, you’ll have to check the pages yourself 🙂
> My understanding of next week’s possible matchups, with game sites:
SJF or Rowan at Mount Union
SJF or Rowan at Capital
Wesley or UMHB at Whitewater
St. John’s at Wesley
St. John’s at UMHB
St. John’s as a 7 seed would definitely be on the road, as would both of the East Region teams (3 and 4 seeds) against the North Region (1 and 2 seeds).
Gordon Mann and Mark Roberts at UW-Whitewater/St. John’s.
Seth Cantor and Eric Renn at St. John Fisher/Rowan.
http://www.d3football.com/audio/
Thanks, PC.
As you all can see, that’s Pat’s department.
When games are played at any level in any sport at the jucture of the season alot of the time games can be either very close or very one sided. And I don’t think that a team on either side of the sheet can be considered a failure if they are beaten soundly. We saw that at Welsey last year were things went extremely well for them even though they were a decided underdog for 3 straight weeks and then the opposite occured. Playing down hill as they say is a lot easier than up hill.
Wesley 30 UMHB 20
Eating up the clock can also hurt UMHB if Wesley can score from anywhere on the field as has been the case all year. That will put Welsey’s D on the field more which does allow teams to get some points. But Wesley will stack up well if UMHB doesn’t keep them honest with a passing game. Wesley’s DB’s single cover very well which allows them 7 or 8 men in the box.
SJF 27 Rowan 21 OT
I think Rowans luck runs out. They have played some tough games and aftyer a while it catches up with you.
UW-W 28 St. John’s 17
Wonder if that winter storm has any effect? Would love to see another game in Dover but I don’t think the St. Johns can win in Whitewater
Mt. Union 34 Capitol 17
I don’t think Beavers is tired yet.. I don’t think Capitol can outscore the MT.
Good Luck to all teams.
ROWAN 21 SJF 17
I’ve never been much for picking scores, but I’m going with UWW, MUC, Rowan, and UMHB.
Side note on the video broadcast of the SJU/UWW…if you don’t have a very good internet connection, you will have a hard time with it. I’m not sure what they are doing for this game, but they teamed up with the UWW-TV station (they broadcast all the home games on campus tv) to provide that feed on the net.
I may be misunderstanding you PA Wesley, but are you referring to Justin Beaver under the Mount/Cap game? Last time I checked, he’s got a warhawk on the helmet. Perhaps you mean some guy named Kmic that seems to thrive in the playoffs…
My goals for this weekend’s trip to the West Region Finals are as follows:
1) Don’t die on a snowy road in a firey car crash. That would put a serious crimp in my holiday plans.
2) Don’t be in New Jersey when December 1 becomes December 2. I’ve got a flight from Newark Airport to O’Hare at 8:25 PM tomorrow but we’ll see whether the weather cooperates.
Maybe I’ll end up flying into Milwaukee. Or Madison. Or Minneapolis. Or Midway. Or some other place that starts with an M. As long as I’m not stranded in New Jersey waiting for a plane that never comes.
3) Don’t watch a blowout.
Actually, if I get through No. 1 and No. 2, that last one will just be gravy.
By the way, I suppose I could plug the Wesley or UMHB broadcast over Pat Cummings and that other guy for D3football.com, but that would just be spiteful. 🙂
Runner
Yup I transposed and deleted wronngly!!! Sorry for the ERROR
I was gonna say, as a Wesley fan, if you’ve got some info on “Beavers” (s intended), share it!
Gordo, nice to see you back around here.
And I’m, I honestly had my nose too deep in ATN and things these past couple days to see who else was broadcasting where. But since all of our readers are just a click away …
Interesting thoughts on the games. Rowan’s luck could run out, and even though Rowan and SJF seem pretty even, Rowan at Mount Union has a better ring to it than St. John Fisher at Mount Union.
I’ve never been to Columbus, FWIW. Or Canton even.
I will most likely be in Ohio next week, unless the aforementioned SJU visit to Dover takes place.
That would be interesting. When was the last time SJU played on the East Coast?
D3Keith
No I don’t have a scoop on Beavers. I don’t even know if he is still enrolled at Wesley.
That would be a nice addition for whoever the future QB at Wesley is especially with the running game they will have.
D3Keith:
‘…Rowan at Mount Union has a better ring to it than St. John Fisher at Mount Union.”
While I understand the historical significance of such a matchup, I don’t think history has a role to play in the amount and level of interest. How many blogs have appeared here over recent weeks referring to the successes of yesteryear, only to be exposed as irrelevant to the current situation?
I should add that history does not NECESSARILY play a role. Having said that, a Rowan win proves my earlier comment that they are the “Timex” of the D3 football world. What a story that would be!
National Semi-Finals
UMHB at UW-Whitewater
Rowan at Mount Union
The Cru are the underdogs this time around but I believe they are going to put on a huge performance. Last year they had no idea who they were up against now they know. Expect sweet revenge to be executed. UMHB has definitely had a much tougher schedule than Wesley College. But I guess we will see on Saturday.
So here’s the deal. Fisher will not lose. Rowan, although a nasty defense, doesnt quite understand how nasty our offense is. Also, 23 points on a stellar defense of Fisher will NOT happen. Fisher’s defense continually gets underrated! There is absolutley no way that a “semi-good offense” is going to score 23 on Fisher – only two teams have scored 20 on Fisher. I am calling the score 28-10 Fisher. The only reason I see Fisher losing to Rowan is if the weather gets to their head, which I seriously seriously doubt. The only Fiser loses this game is if FISHER messes up, not if Rowan is that good. Watch and Listen.
LG1970,
I don’t know the answer to the question(s) in your first post, but I think history, or better yet, name recoginition, most certainly does play a role in the level of interest people take in the game.
It may not BE a better game or matchup, but it has “a better ring to it.”
That’s my point and I’m sticking to it.
And I mean, too, for the East Region fans, they might feel more confident sending Rowan to Alliance, knowing they’ve been there, the program has won there, and the mystique may not be mystifying.
By the same token, I love seeing new teams on the come up. I’d also like to see Mark Robinson, et. al., play.
It could be in Columbus for all I care, I’m going to be interested either way.
I tend to agree with rachacha in the sense that a very good offense (SJF) vs. a good defense (Rowan) will beat an average at best offense (Rowan) vs. a very good defense (SJF). Final score 27-13 SJF. But I do also agree with D3K in that any team in the East, aside from Rowan, that goes to Alliance will be in trouble. Playing in the national semis against MUC will be overwhelming and “mystifying” to SJF. However, I’m hoping they can play the “we have nothing to lose” card and go into Alliance and pull the shocker of the year.
As for other scores:
UMHB 31 Wesley 17
MUC 38 Capital 24
UWW 28 St. Johns 27
This East Bracket final is a tough one. Rowan, like everyone has been saying, has the experience and confidence to go out to a semi-final and give MT Union a game. Yet I have been very impressed with SJF’s defense and offense, especially in the playoffs. This one is going to be tough to call but I’ll give it a shot. Anything will be better than my Union heavy brackets! Rowan 14 SJF 10
Rowan runs out of luck, SJF 31 Rowan 17. Only stopper would be a nasty winter storm, then it’s anybodies game.
I’m making the 5+ hr trip to Rochester this afternoon, hopefully the weather will cooperate.
I was in Alliance last year and Linfield the year before. I can say this from those two experiences: No matter who wins the east, it will be a difficult chore. These small towns in other parts of the country live for their teams.
That said, Rowan has the better defense and the better QB. If Rowan can contain the SJF running game they should prevail in a tight one. Word of advise toSJF: capitilize when you have the opportunity early because if the game is close late, Rowan will find a way to win.
Rowan 20 SJF 13
sorry I just can’t see fisher only scoring 10 when before this game their lowest point total was 27 and that was in a game that they made a ton of mistakes….I think it comes to this the Rowan D is slightly better then the Fisher D. The Fisher O is a lot better than the Rowan O Rowan has a lot of experiance Fisher has some experiance….Fisher has the home crowd and from what I’m hearing could get incredibly insane
hold on the Better QB have you seen Kramer or Kramers stats lets compare stats. Kramer Qb Effincey 170.52 1 int 65.6 Comp% 1714 yards 18 td’s
Orihel-Effic 108.77 12 int 54.7 comp % 1683 yards 10 td’s
you tell me with these stats who would you want as your qb…the numbers tell the tale
D3Keith and Pat:
Wesley gets no respect. You folks pick UMHB to take us out last year. As I recall, Wesley won. I hope you both are as wrong again this year. I am hoping for a Wesley win and St. Johns win so Wesley can play the semifinal at home next week instead of on a slap of ice.
D3Keith:
Larry Beavers is academically ineligible. He comes to almost every game and hopes to return next year. Marcus Lee was back this fall but left college early in the semester.
GO WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Superman: I don’t care what the stats say, Rowan has the better QB as you’ll find out. His “not so hot” stats are a product this year of inexperienced receivers and a conservative offense scheme ( I sound like his agent).
The reason for the low score prediction is two-fold: Looks like bad weather and the Rowan defense is ranked among the best in the country. I haven’t seen SJF and can only go by what I’ve read, but I have seen Rowan all year and can tell you they haven’t played to their capabilities all year and still they have found ways to win. That makes them dangerous or it could finally catch up to them.
I’m sorry a good qb finds ways to get the good stats at some point 12 interceptions is 12 interceptions…Kramer has been dealing with the same thing as Orihel ok WR’s but look at what he’s done sorry Kramer is the better qb here
I have seen Fisher all year. I can say wholeheartedly that this team has something to fight for; its called RESPECT. Being there doesnt mean anything when you are in growney stadium with a sea full of Fisher fans with nasty weather. What will win out for Fisher is there very well rounded offense and defense. Rowan may have a great QB but we’ve seen that already with Springfield. Having a “great QB” does not equal a great team. Yes, it could be close. But i really don’t think that Fisher is going out on this one.
Springfield was one dimensional, Rowan is not.
Good luck to anyone trying to come to Whitewater today. About six inches of snow so far and it’s still coming down pretty good; and anyone trying to fly into Milwaukee, well, I guess it’s blizzard conditions out there.
Oh yeah,
UWW- 35
St. Johns- 14
Here are my predictions for scores.
UWW – 35
St. John’s – 14
MHB – 28
Wesley – 10
Rowan – 24
SJF – 21
Capital – 28
Mount Union – 24
Me – 0
My car’s head gasket – $968.69
Ok, the Mount Union score looks odd, but if I picked a score which had them winning, then I would almost want them to win so I would have a correct prediction. So I decided to go with an upset. Capital is a darn good team, and Mount Union can’t win every single time (even though it seems so).
I think UW Whitewater may even score more points.
By the way, I do have Mount Union winning against Capital in Pick ’em. That does not mean I wouldn’t be thrilled if MU lost. I think probably 95% of Pick ’em entries have Mount Union beating Capital in that game.
Does anyone not have Mount Union winning this game (against whoever) in the Pick ’em? Does anyone not have Mount Union going to the Stagg Bowl?
I’m just curious and am interested in why?
rachacha,
Might I add, Rowan plays this little thing called “defense.”
Great to see a Profs fan and Cardinals fan take an unbiased look at who the better QB is. 🙄
ICBomber91,
I like the points you made and the way you shared your reasoning.
I guess if that storm keeps moving … we have four locales liable to get snow. I was saying I think it would hurt the speed teams at Wesley most … but then again, since UMHB likes to run so much anyway, it just might be an epic battle btween Cru O-line and Wesley front seven.
I have no idea what shoes you wear for turf + snow. I always played on grass.
Archer,
I laid out my reasoning for the pick pretty clearly. I didn’t make my mind up on that one until I went through everything. I certainly think Wesley can win, but I like UMHB a bit better. I respect them both. Not sure the No. 3 team in the country gets “no respect,” just not enough for your liking. Understandable, I suppose.
I don’t think the last year’s argument really helps Wesley, given that last year Beavers lit up UMHB for four long TDs in the h2h meeting, and he’s not with you this year … and last year you lost to Whitewater 58-6, which UMHB just played to a draw practically in October. (The UMHB performance in that game weighed heavily into my thinking.)
I’m not saying those are the only arguments to consider, they’re not even terribly relevant when talking about this year … just don’t think bringing up last year actually helps Wesley’s argument as much as you think it does.
And let’s just get this out in the open, from the Wesley fans:
Do you or do you not think Wesley would have won last year’s semifinal if it had not played at Whitewater, on ice, with the wrong shoes, whatever whatever?
I was looking forward to watching the SJU/WW game on the internet feed (that is outstanding) however I’ll be putting in a new floor in one of my bathrooms instead. 🙁
One of the bummers of Linfield not making the field this year….my “to do” list just moved up by about 3-4 weeks.
Here are my picks:
Rowan
Wesley
Mount
UWW
This has nothing to do with anything really I was just looking for an answer. It says that Brett Elliot of Linfield is the all time leading touchdown passer in a season with 61, but Bill Borchert of Mount threw 63 I think in like 1998 for mount union and he only played 14 games as apossed to Elliots 15.. I know playoff stats did not count then but still. I dunno just wondered if I had my stats right????????????????????Go MUC beat CAP.
Good luck with that flying Gordon…
I am in the Portland International Jetport (that’s Portland, Maine). Currently awaiting my 1:15pm flight to Philadelphia which is now “tentatively” scheduled to leave for Philadelphia at 4:06pm. Although, the gate agent here says…
“Air traffic control could give us an earlier time, so really, your flight could leave any time from 1:30 to 4:06, or later of course.”
“Grand!” I think. Glad I got my lobster roll already.
Assuming I make it home tonight – which I really think is in question (I always think the worst when flying…diminish my expectations and then a positive turn seems like gold)…I am STOKED for this Wesley/UMHB game. I don’t really have a score prediction or opinion – just hoping to be there behind the mic when the ball is let loose in Dover.
(As a kid starts screaming in the background…)
BRUTAL.
The numbers are crunched.
The win / loss record for the CCIW from 1973 to now is: 34-24.
the 1970’s: 0-1
the 1980’s: 20-6
the 1990’s: 4-7
the 2000’s: 10-10
Prior to the playoff expansions, a team only needed to win 3 games to win it all.
Um. Did I say I was going to UWW/SJU?
Uh, yeah. I meant Mount Union/Capital. The weather cancelled my flight so I’ll be driving to Alliance instead.
Now I just have to hope that my first and third wish expressed above work out.
I have no issue giving way to a better qb or a better team…but being a stats person and someone who worked in the NFL world with stats…they matter A LOT. lets go sheerly fantasy football right now. and you can have either Mike Oriehl as your starting qb-a qb who has experiance and is playing on an experianced team or you can have Rob Kramer who had not started untill this year but has huge numbers on a team that is farther then they have ever been before….I just feel that while numbers don’t always say everything these numbers aren’t even close
MUC – 31
Cap – 17
Pat or Keith, you coming to Alliance this week?
Rochester weather: flurries and wind gusts 20 to 30 mph. Quarterback issue probably won’t come into play. Increased fumbles and misplays by both offenses. Looks like Rowan’s luck is still holding, it will come down to who can overcome the weather miscues. SJF 21 Rowan 14
Rowan will lose this weekend… why is everyone picking them, SJF is a better team over all than Rowan is?
Superman57 I hear you, it is hard to say either way. I have seen them both play. Kramer did nothing but impress me last week. He looks as if he is going to be slow and lathargic, he is neither. He throws well, sees the field well, and makes good decisions, as I said earlier, he is nothign but impressive. Oriehl is just good period. Yet I agree his stats are not what they should be, or could be, and do not compare with Kramer. It really is a hard call and I don’t think you can call it either way. This is one aspect of this weekend that makes this game great! I think the better QB will be the QB who leads his team to victory on Sat. Both teams have many dimensions, all that can win or lose the game. Yet I think the winner of this game has the bragging rights! NOt only as a team but in regards to the QB. If Kramer beats Rowan it will shut all the doubters up! I am still a doubter though, I think Rowan takes it. This may be good for SJF. Each week I have rooted against them. Obviously with Union, one-dimensional Springfield and I have been wrong. If SJF wins tomorrow they will have eardned my respect for a long time. Question: Could either hold a candle to Mt.Union?
D3Keith:
Although I do not have in front of me the rational you and Pat used last year to pick UMHB over Wesley I would guess it was about the same as this year’s rational, that was my point. My guess is that if Wesley played UWW on a natural field, with field turf, on a nice sunny day we still loose but not 58-6, maybe 42-21! UWW was clearly the better team.
No hot dogs and sodas for you in the press box at half time! lol
Dlippeil great post…you explained it better than anyone…. and no I do not think that this rowan team can hang with MUC….and I’m not sure about fisher right now I will say no that they can not hang with MUC BUT!!!!!! Fisher has done nothing but suprise me this year with the dismantlings of UofR, Ithaca, Alfred, and Union…and the solid game the defense played against the best ground attack in d3 of springfield…everytime I thought a game would be a close one Fisher has come out and throughly beaten the opponent
Archer,
Just pushing the buttons that lead to a more complete discussion. Last year Wesley beat UMHB with turnovers and big pass plays. What if UMHB this forces you to line up and beat them?
I also don’t think a 29-28 pick is a very big slight. People who are man enough to make their picks have to go against one team or the other.
Superman57,
Stats don’t always tell the whole story. Period. If you’ve done what you say you’ve done, you know that. I’m not saying Kramer is or isn’t better than Orihel (I would bet not, but I haven’t seen Kramer), but SJF has by far the better supporting cast this year. Maybe you can take Orihel’s numbers from last season when he had a comparable supporting cast.
I don’t know who that would favor, I just thought I would point out one of the many ways stats don’t tell the whole story.
Shoot, if they did, Alma would be playing this week.
For the record, I’m pulling for SJF to win just to see a new team travel to Alliance for the Semi’s. I’ve seen Rowan enough.
Well,
Either way, we are getting off topic. Who the better fantasy QB would be between Kramer and Orihel has no bearing on who wins Saturday. Defense is a huge factor for both of these teams … weather, special teams, etc.
Gordon,
That stinks. But at least we have that TV feed and three D3.com/NCAAsports.com broadcasts now Which reminds me:
From UW-W:
Keith,
I was reading your comments on the daily dose about the Penn Atlantic video stream for this Saturday’s game and wanted to update you on the quality of the broadcast. All of UWW’s regular season games and all of the playoff games we host are telecast via UWWTV to 100,000 homes along the Charter Communications Channel 20 network (throughout Southeastern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois). This broadcast uses five cameras, instant replay, graphics, and two announcers in the booth plus we frequently have a third announcer on the sidelines. This production is directed by one staff member and manned by about fifteen undergraduate students. This is the broadcast that will be shown over Penn Atlantic. It is of exceptional quality for a division III game. Our students spend a great deal of time prepping for the game (taping interviews and preparing the in-game graphics). Needless to say a number of our students go on to professional careers in television and radio.
Since Penn Atlantic does not charge for the NCAA playoff games telecast over the web, be sure to urge your readers to connect in as they will get a chance to see our TV crew in action and they will be treated to a quality television broadcast via the web. One final note, UWW established this special partnership with Charter Communications several years ago and we televise live all of our home football games, as well as many of our home volleyball, basketball (women’s as well as men’s), and select other sports. All of these games are available via Penn Atlantic. Over the years, our students have telecast NCAA playoff games in basketball, baseball, volleyball and, of course, football. Needless to say, only at a Division III university would undergraduate students get the chance to televise a live NCAA playoff quarterfinal game. Like last year, we hope to be televising the semifinal game as well.
Dick Haven
Associate Dean”