Alright, well, I’ve had the bracket in my hands for almost five hours so I’ve probably come to grips with it, but you guys haven’t had it nearly as long so it’s time to let out those pent-up frustrations.
I would really like to get to the bottom of the Millsaps mileage issue. The folks on the committee told me that the number they got was higher than 500 miles, so I’d like to know what it takes to standardize these distances. There’s a Web site the NCAA mandates schools to use to determine whether a game is in-region and that is indeed the site I used. Why they got different numbers, neither of us is sure.
In the end, it just means we have a regional semifinal one week early.
Looking forward to the potential matchup of Rowan and Wilkes in the second round. That should be a great game. Rowan is just getting its offense in gear and I’m not sure that Hobart, which struggled with William Paterson and others, can keep up. Wilkes is strong on defense as well. I haven’t seen the field since September, so I wonder what it looks like now.
Springfield, as I mentioned on the air, is in shape to play two games on turf, which bodes well for their offense. They need a lower seed to advance out of the other half of the bracket so they can continue to host on turf. They would get that if Rowan were to beat Wilkes, but I also doubt the Springfield/St. John Fisher potential rematch in round two would replicate round one. Springfield will still be favored but that doesn’t mean the game will be the same.
Can anyone aside from Capital hang with Mount Union in the top bracket? Can Capital even do it?
Kind of a neat story to get two long-time playoff drought teams together in round one in Pittsburgh. Contrast in styles, too.
West, two storied programs meet in the first round in Pella, while Bethel tries again to get the first-round monkey off its back.
Floor open for your thoughts.
How good is Wahington & Lee I don’t know much about them?
Does anyone think Cortland belongs in over them?
I can’t compare the two I didn’t see Washington & Lee play!
Doesn’t matter. Washington and Lee got an automatic bid!!
Geez, people, come on. Look at our projections — every team with an (A) next to its name got an automatic bid.
http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?p=270
If Raiderguy feels SJU wasn’t overranked I feel better. I know he’s seen them plenty (and, of course, has a pretty good purple pedigree.)
I feel a bit for Cortland because in some ways they might have had an easier chance getting out of the East bracket than SJU does out of a tougher West. Central is a very solid program. Courtland probably wouldn’t have had to play a top 10 program until the second round — if unlike last season — it wins a post-season game.
But we can batter regional things, but the real issue is comes down to the commitment to AQs.
Personally, I think they are needed and part of the d3 mission. And I know the NCAA wouldn’t likely budge either.
But should the NAIA continue to erode, ala the NWC move, and the ranks of d3 hit a growth spurt, perhaps someone would suggest a modest proposal to handle the influx. Why reward conferences that are one-and-done? If a conference can’t win a playoff game in four or five years as an AQ, then throw its champ into Pool C, unless they are unbeaten.
That way you could accomodate more deserving teams without expanding the bracket — and without extending the season.
I’m sure there are problems, such as the tiny North league that gets put up against MUC every year, and brighter minds will find more issues. But if the NAIA, which seems shakier by the season, sends a surge of teams this way, we’ll have even more Cortland situations.
This probably isn’t the answer and I’m not all that comfortable with it, but I thought I’d fly it up there … fire away, please.
My bad! Not paying attention today!
Good post.
Cortland has a legitimate beef and should be in the playoffs for all the reasons mentioned in previous posts. The problem might be that there are too many automatic bids. Or maybe it was Cortland’s non-league schedule. Wins over Morrisville and Brockport, two teams that failed to get a win over any team above .500, had to hurt them in the end. The win over Ithaca just wasn’t enough. If the NJAC doesn’t improve its bottom teams, Cortland is going to have to schedule more teams like Alfred, St John Fisher and Hobart if they want an At-large bid. Buff State and Brockport have been strong programs in the past, and may rebound in the next couple of years. If they do, wins over these teams would likely get the Red Dragons in the tournament.
Do some of these conferences really deserve a guaranteed spot for their champion? Should there be more At-large selections? That would also leave a lot of room for second guessing by those who just miss.
I’ve said before that I don’t think the NJAC is a strong conference. Rowan and Cortland are national powers and that will always keep them in the playoff hunt, but the bottom four in the NJAC don’t provide quality wins for the top two. The top four teams made the E8 the best conference in the east this year. I think the LL top four (Union, Hobart, Rochester, RPI) are very strong. Rowan and Cortland probably have a slight advantage over Union and Hobart, but the next four matchups favor the LL.
Pat and Keith had the field pegged because they understand how the selection process works and they did their homework. There is little subjectivity in the process and that’s what most people asked for.
Well said. that is the bottom line.
The Division III membership is looking at the NAIA influx already and potential overcrowding of the championship field is definitely one of the reasons why it’s being pondered.
Emolion, thanks, but I have to give credit to Gordon Mann, who you see blogging here regularly and is on the bracketology team.
As a geographically challenged Cortland alum in the home of perennial Big Ten whipping boy Minnesota, I appreciate the support for my alma mater, especially from dutchman, SeanGOP, and JTW. Nothing vs. Hobart, but can’t believe defenders bringing up LAST YEAR’s result to back up their argument–totally irrelevant to Cortland’s 2006 team. Also agree, as one close to the MIAC scene here, St. John’s got in on strength of past performance, which has indeed been impressive despite questionable strength of schedule. Finally, QB situation is irrelevant to playoff selection—I don’t care if they’re down to the waterboy starting–the team deserves better.
The NJAC may not be that strong this year, but Hobart sure had a tough time with bottom feeder William Patterson. Who cares if one leagues number 4 or 5 team is better than the other leagues 4 or 5. The LL has Worchester, Merchant M., and St Lawrence has been a joke for years. Montclair is a solid program, and if Buff State returns to form along with New Jersey we’ll be back to this league beating each other up and we’ll all have 2 or 3 losses, and that won’t get you in the playoffs either.
Interested to see RPI and Cortland square off in the ECACs (Rochester vs. Alfred is another great upstate match up as well!). Should be a good one!
Keith, I met you at the UMHB/UWW game last month and told you I read but don’t post. That has changed with the latest NCAA stupidity. You are missing the point about the South bracket. Believe me, all of us in Texas are well award of “cost containment” by the NCAA. Read Ralph Turner’s post earlier about how by using its own mapping program there could still have been one flight this weekend and probably LESS flights later. Plus EVERY OTHER BRACKET HAS PERFECT SEEDING MATCHUPS THIS WEEKEND. Ludicrous arrogant ignorance is no defense. We have meekly(relatively speaking) accepted this ridiculous “sub bracket” for years, and now there was a year to easily avoid a #2 vs. #3 south region matchup in the first round–AND A CONFERENCE REMATCH TO BOOT–and they don’t do it. INEXCUSABLE AND INDEFENSIBLE!
obviously I meant well aware not “well award” on recent post—and Texas fans definitely are well aware of NCAA D3 playoff mindset!
While I am complaining about the South bracket, why did W & L go east instead of Dickinson? Does that make sense on any level, especially geographically?
UW Whitewater will beat Mount Union in the Championship game… Who’s with me?
I don’t get why Cortland fans are mad at Hobart for not getting in!
Hobart is one tough football team with lots of heart. They had one bad game against top notch Union!
Cortland fans should be upset about not getting in…but Hobart has nothing to do with it! I’m not sure what a preseason scrimmage has to do with it!
JAFO is right – don’t blame Hobart for Cortland State not getting in. It can only be the blame of the football team not getting in and the selection committee. I think Cortland should have gotten in.
Anyway, Hobart is going to get beat by Rowan.
About what time should we expect the Pick’em to be available today? I can’t wait!
I am very glad d3f does the pick’em – it makes the playoffs better (especially if your team didn’t make it).
labart96 –
Were this weekend’s ECAC games announced or were you speculating on the matchups? Do you have a link to the announcement?
I don’t know when it will be available, probably late. I haven’t see our tech guy online at all today but he did promise it would be done.
SeanGOP: Which St. norbert game were you at this year??? Maybe I met you…
Thanks man!
SeanGOP: Did you see alot of St. Norbert games??? Who is their main offensive threat and are they big up front?? Do they still run that wishbone to death?? Give me a quick scouting report. I need some info.
umhbcrufan16, Re: W&L vs. Dickinson in the East
I can only speculate here, but I think this is probably as accurate as anything.
One basic tenet of drawing up a tournament is that if you are forced to move a team because the standard seeding process breaks one of your criteria, you move the lower seeded teams of those involved. Since W&L was probably ranked lower than Dickinson in the traditional South region, they got the “privilege” of being moved out of region. Since Lexington and Carlisle are both well within the 500 miles of Wilkes-Barre and Dover, the geographical limitations were not of primary consideration.
I’m alive. Starting on it right now. I don’t think it will take too long to put together this year.
Hey SeanGOP
Jumpin the gun for both teams aren’t you. Upsets do happen. UWW and Mt. Union can be upset.
will UWW have their tailback available for the playoffs?
SeanGOP,
I missed the part where the Raiders have already made it to Salem and “decided” to play WW again.
And “decided” that “OK, we won it last year so now it is your turn.”
If it happens I at least know it wasn’t because WW had the better team but simply a Mount Union accomodation.
To Ralph Turner first…I respectfully disagree with you…how else does a 9-1 team not make it ? I refuse to buy into the NJAC not being strong…I saw every team…at least once. We hope things like that don’t happen…but they do…sure there were many strong teams, but the Red Dargons were one of them and anyone who feels cheated, both inside and outside the team, has a right.
To seanGOP…Right on ! The quarterback is NOT the whole team…so why should the team have been cheated ?
Anyway…again no disrespect to those going…and MUCH respect to the Cortland guys who voted to go to the ECAC game before the jug game and aren’t backing out….good for them and go Sean Pratt !!!
Emolion –
The Brockport game is usually a monster opponent for Cortland. Brockport had an off year, so it really wasn’t Cortland’s fault. Morrisville is a fellow SUNY school looking to fill a schedule, and we accomodated because we were 1 game short. The belief is long term Morrisville will be very, very good. They are a multi-time champion in JUCO. In the interim they are building and not nearly as strong as they will be. This year it was an easy win for us. In the future? Probably a very tough game.
Cortland cannot simply schedule Fisher, Alfred, RPI, Hobart… Believe me. They have tried, and tried. For the most part private schools up here want nothing to do with the public schools when it comes to football. Ithaca is a noted exception as they will, and do, schedule anybody.
Fisher to their credit still plays Brockport out of conference, and also has a competitive game with Kings. I understand they are in the process of scheduling Mt Union(!!!!) too. Hobart plays Dickinson, F&M some years, and Alfred. RPI could use a schedule upgrade, since they play Utica, Becker, and Endicott out of conference. Those are 3 very weak teams and automatic wins for RPI most years. RPI missed out on a Pool C bid last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their strength of schedule played a role. If any of those teams needs Cortland on their schedule, it is RPI. But that is never going to happen.
So we have tried to get the upstate teams on Cortland’s schedule. Heck we tried to form a league with them, and then join the leagues they formed on their own. Needless to say they weren’t interested in Cortland, which is why we ended up in the New Jersey Athletic Conference. It is the same reason Brockport (and Buffalo State before them) ended up in the ACFC with Salisbury and Wesley. It was either that, or go back to playing D2 games with Southern Connecticut and Mansfield again as we did for many years.
And you won’t be able to play Mansfield much longer… Hit the papers here in P.A. last week that they may be dropping their football program soon
I understand and agree with all the reasons that Cortland should be in.Can someone explain why Hobart is I know a win is a win but there were many games they played where they didn’t so much find a way to win but there oponants a way to loose.Sometimes a dead horse needs to be beaten if it’s ever going to be fixed.PS hope I made you laugh Mr. D. Also note to Rowan if you want to beat Hobart just pass run or kick the ball.
Warrior,
I didn’t see any St. Norbert games this year. All I need to know is that they are from the Midwest Conference and UW Whitewater is from the WIAC. That tells me they are going to get thumped. I think St. Norbert could beat several of the teams in the playoffs this year, but got a bad luck first game. That is the deepest bracket out of the four – only 3 losses total! Noone can dispute that.
Jimjearsa,
Of course I’m jumping the gun – but I have to make a prediction to be in Pick ’em!
Raiderguy,
Refer to the line written to Jimjearsa. Personally, I would love it if Mount Union lost in the first round – that way a CCIW team stand a better chance. I attended Augustana, and I would rather not have any team beat Augustana’s record of 4 straight National Championships. Mount Union poses the biggest threat for obvious reasons. I’m sorry I think your team is great.
Some really good posts here, I have enjoyed reading them all. The more I think of it the more I do feel for Cortland. Hey I have an idea and even a request. Cortland please take it to RPI in the ECAC GAME. I don’t care if it makes the LL look weak, yes I am a bitter Union fan after Saturdays loss. You really did deserve to be in the NCAA tourney and I am sorry things did not work out. Just take it all out on RPI and hammer them. Cam08 yes it made me laugh, thanks man, and I do happen to agree that Rowen will beat Hobart. I can’t wait for the Union/SJF game this week. I think it is going to be a great game. Also this will be a great matchup of two awsome backs (Arcidicano and Robinson). If Arcidicano’s ankle is good then it will be two of the better backs trying to help their teams to an NCAA victory. Both teams have many weapons on offense so it should be excitiing. Hey U defense, this is your opportunity to get back on top after last week. You showed tons of heart last week but to win this week you need to stop SJF early and often.
dutchman, it really doesnt matter whos running behind that line….whitewater is gonna win it all but even if i wasnt a johnnie fan…they will play whitewater and lose by a touchdown…the bethel lost couldnt of come at a better time…they will use it for motivation and beat central by 3 touchdowns…as long as kofead plays good
I do believe Union could go far in post season some of the best ball running and control I saw in the LLdon’t know what happen at RPI didn’t catch that game.Look Mr. D a positive post, I am really progressing
Who is the favorite in the first round match-ups in the East bracket? Who does everyone see coming out of this region? I like Wilkes, Rowan, SJF, Springfield—all the higher seeds, of course, I think Rowan is the favorite to come out of the bracket, on paper, but luckily the games aren’t on paper..Thoughts???
What happened with the Union/RPI game was that RPI finally played like the team they should have been all season. The offensive line shut down the tough Union d-line and Robertson came through in the clutch, hitting his recievers when he needed to. RPI’s d-line and lb’s also played a terriffic game. Union’s o-line could not get a push up front. I am excited for the Union/SJF game. I feel that Union can win this game if they don’t play like they did against RPI. lol. I do sympathize with Cortland. I feel that they probably would have been the East representative in the semifinals if they were in, yet they get punished for an overtime loss. This stuff happens when there are limited spaces for conference runner-ups.
ok. who wants to talk a little smack? I sense a little holdback right now. c’mon. we need to give our respective troops some incentive. and please, no boy scout reply. this can be accomplished without degenerating into a low brow free for all. by the way, as a rule, the defending champss (mount union) is exempt from smack in round 1.
d3keith, pcole. ryancoleman:
please indulge a little here.
who wants at it first?
sents57
saw part of the UC/RPI game on webcast. the mud certainly didn’t help the dutchmen from getting any traction. blanche made several big catches. 3 untimely picks (could’ve easily been 5).
field won’t matter at SJF. expecting a shootout.
not to take away anythng from RPI, since they playe on the same field.
Cortland fans, I have one other thought about the dynamics in the Selection committee as they went down the list
Up first–
1) North-Capital/Wheaton/Franklin West UW-LC/SJU/Linfield South HSU/Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — Capital in as N#2; move up Wheaton
2) North-Wheaton/Franklin West UW-LC/SJU/Linfield South HSU/Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — HSU in as S#3 (They beat UW-SP as badly or worse than UW-W and UW-LC did.) Move up Trinity
3) North-Wheaton/Franklin West UW-LC/SJU/Linfeld South Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — UW-LC in as W#3. Move up SJU
4) North-Wheaton/Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — SJF in as E#3. Move up Hobart
5) North-Wheaton/Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East Hobart/Cortland — Wheaton in as N#4. Move up Franklin.
6) North-Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East Hobart/Cortland — Hobart in as E#5. Move up Cortland.
7) North-Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East Cortland — SJU in as W#7.
If you look at that table, SJU was the next best pick from the West in Round #4, #5, #6 and #7. That is a long time to be asking the question “Is SJU the next best team on the table?”
As that question was being asked, SJF came off! Then Wheaton came off! And then Hobart came off! That certainly must have raised some genuine questions as to which was the next best team left on the table for the 7th pick. I can imagine the committee’s dynamics to see 2 East Region teams and 1 North Region team coming off while SJU was still on the table. Trinity, or whoever it was, was just too weak in the next South position.
Cortland, good luck in the ECAC.
Or if UW-LC came off 2nd, then SJU moved up and was there in the 3rd round!!!
HSU comes off in the 3rd round, but SJU is lurking as the next best team from the West!
Talking about a team looming like a vulture over the table! How do you not question yourself saying that SJU is not good enough to come off after the second round, as #3 or #4 or #5 or #6 or #7?
Ralph Turner,
I know you laid it out for us angered Cortland fans, but its is still not clear as to why Hobarts 9-1 or St John Fishers 9-1 is stronger than Cortlands 9-1?
dutchman89
I definetly feel that the conditions of the field favored RPI. I watched the game from field level, so I knew how terrible the field was. RPI practices on a field that has similar conditions to ’86 Field right now and they also play on a grass field (obviously), so they were used to the mud. Union is a turf team, so they aren’t as used to playing in those conditions. And yes, the turnovers killed Union. There could easily have been 8 or 9 picks, but many were dropped by the safties. I am also expecting a shootout with Fisher, though both teams do have very tough defenses. Union will be on turf again, so their offense will probably have a better game than they did this past weekend. I would definetly love to catch that game, but I probably will travel to Cortland to watch my Engineers.
I’ve crunched the numbers on my computer rating system and I’m ready to post its projections for the opening round of the bracket. For those interested, it is an iterative based system somewhat like the LazIndex. On average it accurately predicts games at about a 77%-80% clip most weeks. The playoffs are always tougher because the teams are more closely matched than during the regular season.
Wilkes Bracket-
Wilkes over Wash & Lee
Rowan over Hobart – very close game, watchout Rowan
SJ Fisher over Union
Springfield over Curry
Mt Union Bracket-
Mt Union over Hope
Wheaton over Mt St Joseph
North Central over Concordia, Wis
Capital over Wittenberg
Wesley Bracket-
Wesley over Dickinson
Millsaps over Carnegie-Mellon
Washington & Jefferson over Christopher Newport
Hardin-Simmons over Mary-Hardin Baylor
UW-Whitewater Bracket-
UW-Whitewater over St Norbert
UW-Lacrosse over Bethel
Whitworth over Occidental
Central over St John’s
Incidentally my rating system has Hardin-Simmons as the 3rd best team in the country, with UMHB as the 5th best team. So this 1st round matchup is a major hose job.
bethel might lose but watch out uw lacrosse…i watched the st.john bethel game and that was a good game…sju played the worst they could i ever seen them play in the past 6 years and still almost won if lofboom did trip at the 10 yard line when no one was in 10 yards of him…..
Let’s go UWL!! Since Whitewater handed it to them, they have been playing quite well. I’d love to see a UWL and UWW rematch in round 2.
I don’t know anything about Cortland, but come on folks, it is time to move on.
Go Eagles!
umhbcrufan16,
I am not missing the point about Texas. It’s wrong. I’m just not outraged anymore because this happens every year in Texas on the West Coast. If it would really please you, I’m sure I could go back to some other year when you guys got screwed and re-post it and it would still apply.
ChuggerD99 almost had it nailed. Cortland not getting in is not an endorsement of the E8 or LL over the NJAC. It’s simply a case of having several deserving teams, in this case nine for seven spots. If Cortland and Franklin hadn’t been left out, someone like UW-La Crosse or St. John’s or St. John Fisher or Hardin-Simmons — all of whom were ranked and lost only to their conference champion — would have been left out and had the same argument.
In that situation, the committee can’t win. Inevitably, as someone above mentioned, the 33rd and 34th teams will have beef.
Be glad this isn’t ’04, when we would have had nine worthy teams for three spots, and 29 and 30 would have had beef.
Be glad this isn’t ’98, where in the West, one of the five unbeaten conference champs could have missed the field — forget about Bethel or St. John’s.
Cortland,
I don’t like any rating system that spits out a result that doesn’t jive with h2h results.
In voting this year, until CNU lost to N.C. Wesleyan, I was able to keep all my head-to-head top 25 teams in order (i.e. Rowan-CNU-UMHB). Later, it was impossible to contain the Ithaca-Springfield-Union-Alfred-Hobart-SJF craziness.
As far as the predictions your system made, they look good for the most part. I see a few I disagree with, and I’ll be writing about that later in the week. But there really aren’t a whole lot of toss-ups in the first round. Or rather, games without a clear favorite. Any of them could end up being toss-ups. That’s the fun of the playoffs.
Dutchman89, I feel your early post from this morning. As for the smack talk one, I’m sure they’re well underway on Post Patterns. That’s where I’d keep it.
Who do ya’ll thinks going to win……..HSU or UMHB? What do you think?
Keith –
You answered your own question. H2H is important, but it isn’t all encompassing. For instance the mess that was E8 – basically unsolveable by simple ELO type ranking methods.
When developing the system I actually researched how often teams which beat their opponent by say 1-4 points, or 40 to 50 points, etc, actually ended up ahead of that opponent in their conference standings at year’s end.
What I found was a victory of 17+ points almost always means the winning team was “better” over the course of the season. Like 98% of the time.
Furthermore a victory of 50 points, 60 points, and so on, became meaningless. Once a team wins by about 4 touchdowns, there is virtually no difference in the probability they are beter than their opponent than had they won by an even larger margin. So blowouts are muted.
However a victory of a touchdown or less only held up only about 65% of the time.
So in other words the “wrong team” wins almost 1 of every 3 games. We can come up with potential reasons why it happened. A key injury for one game. A tough road loss. Too much partying the night before the game. Bad luck, even bad officiating. The system doesn’t care. It just knows close games have to be put in their proper perspective. Otherwise you end up ranking William Paterson ahead of Rowan in 2005.
What Laz does, and my system does, is iterate through every score of every game. The overall strength of a team is the result of all games, and takes into account the potential that a close win or a close loss may have been an upset.
Some factoids from the computer ratings based on all regular season games –
Top 3 teams
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Mount Union
3. Hardin-Simmons (I know you disagree with this one Keith)
Weakest Team in the Country – Principia
Weakest Team in the Playoffs – Curry (ranked #108)
Strongest Team out of the Playoffs – Cortland (ranked #12)
The Great East Hope for 2006 – St John Fisher. Overwhelming except for the Springfield game. Has a real chance to make a national run.
Where does first year Morrisville rank? – #175, roughly even with Utica and Maine Maritime.
Was Bethel really better than St John’s? – Yes, but only by about 2 points