Immediate thoughts on Week 10

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Phew, well, I think we’re finally digging out from the craziness of the afternoon — no, not me at home with the three kids while my wife was working, but the systems failure at D3Scoreboard.com. Well, both.

Big news of the day … the lack of offense at Rowan and Cortland State. Ray Miles, already the backup thrust into a starting role at QB for the Red Dragons, broke his finger and his replacements struggled against the fierce Rowan D … the rest of the East upheaval … Linfield loses at home to Whitworth, lending some legitimacy to Whitworth’s ranking … teams clinching bids left, right and center (Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Wilkes, Hope, Dickinson).

I still have family time with my kids before I head back to Connecticut tomorrow but I am opening the floor for other comments.

82 thoughts on “Immediate thoughts on Week 10”

  1. No longer a debate in the LL. Union has wrapped up the division in convincing fashion handling Hobart even without Arcidiacano for most of the second half. With a dominant win next week against RPI the ‘U’ should host a home playoff game in the weeks ahead.

  2. Dickinson’s winning the Centennial is proof that experience matters. Returning 18 seniors this year while the rest of the CC sputtered beneath them. They will look to get the CC’s first playoff win in a LONG time.

  3. The starter post by Pat Coleman pretty much sums it up. Cortland lost Ray Miles at QB today, and the team simply could not generate offense against Rowan. It wasted an amazing effort by Cortland’s defense, which limited Rowan to 135 yards of offense on the day.

    Hats off to Rowan for (almost certainly) winning their 3rd consecutive NJAC crown. It was a great game on a beautiful day in the ‘Boro.

    Now the reality sets in. Cortland has no proven QB and Ithaca comes to town next week. A Cortland win sends them into the playoffs as a Pool C bid in my opinion. A loss and the season is over for them. We know we have a world class defense. If we can find a passing game this week, we can still be dangerous in the playoffs.

  4. Last week John McGraw and I were talking about the possibility of the Empire 8 getting three bids. I thought they would if Springfield, Ithaca and St. John Fisher finished 9-1.

    ”But it’s not gonna matter because Alfred will win one of these last two,” I said at the time. They seem too good to lose all the close games to good teams. But lest I pat myself on the back too hard, John and I both thought the Saxons would lose to IC and beat the Cards.

    Alfred’s win today gives another team faint hopes of getting into the NCAA tournament at 8-2. The hopes are faint because generally the second loss is a death knell for teams’ NCAA playoff aspirations. But they are still alive because Wikes got into the tournament last year at 8-2 when it expanded to 32 teams.

    This year there are lots of teams’ fans who are still holding onto the dream of getting a coveted at-large bid. Delaware Valley, Bridgewater (Va.) and Alfred come to mind. And there lots of other two lose teams out there — Ithaca, Rochester, Baldwin-Wallace, Ursinus, St. Olaf, Wooster…

    Could one of them get in? Maybe – I still think Baldwin-Wallace (6-2, 5-2 OAC) will if they can beat Capital. The Yellow Jackets and the rest of the two-loss teams are hoping to be last year’s Wilkes team this year. But really the only way to control your own destiny is to be this year’s Wilkes team this year – the Colonels clinched the MAC today.

    Here are the teams with one-loss, excluding conference leaders, and who they have left…

    Capital: Baldwin Wallace (6-2, 5-2 OAC)
    Cortland: Ithaca (7-2, 4-2 E8)
    Franklin: Hanover (4-5, 4-2 HCAC)
    Hardin-Simmons: McMurry (2-5, 3-6 ASC)
    Hobart: Rochester (7-2, 4-1)
    St. John Fisher: Alfred (7-2, 4-1)
    UW-Lax: UW-Oshkosh (5-4, 3-3 WIAC)
    Wartburg: Dubuque (5-4, 4-3 IIAC)
    Wheaton (Ill.): Illinois Wesleyan (3-6, 2-4 CCIW)

    Bethel has just one loss but will either knock St. John’s into this group by beating the Johnnies next week and clinching the MIAC or pick up their second loss.

    So you’ve got 9 or 10 teams for 7 slots. Could four of those teams lose to open the door for a two-loss team? Seems possible.

  5. It was certainly an interesting afternoon as I had three Internet broadcasts unfolding on my laptop in southwestern Virginia. An exciting day of East region (upstate New York) football that has cleared up the Pool A races in three conferences and thrown the Pool C race into blender.

    With a win over Norwich next weekend, Springfield will clinch the Empire 8 automatic bid. It won’t matter that Alfred or St. John Fisher will have only one conference loss because SC defeated both of them. The Pride survived a scare today against Hartwick. Their defense will need to play better in the playoffs to avoid an early exit like 2003 (second round to RPI).

    Union outscored Hobart and wrapped up the Liberty League. I admit I picked RPI to win the conference because I thought Union lost too much to graduation and RPI’s offense would be unstoppable. As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.” Union’s offense continues to roll along with the Marotti-Arcidiacano-Angiletta-Twitchell combination. No news on Arcidiacano but hopefully he’s OK. Offense didn’t seem to flounder too much with him on the bench. That would be a cruel twist of fate though for the Dutchmen if they get Angiletta back and lose Arcidiacano. Hobart played so many close games this year, I’m surprised it wasn’t closer. Statesmen still have an outside shot to get into the playoffs but a tough game awaits against Rochester.

    Rowan-Cortland. I figured it wouldn’t be an offensive shoot-out with two of the best defenses in the region. The Dragons just can’t find ways to win in Glassboro or to be Rowan for that matter. Outside of the upset in 2001, the rivalry’s been one-sided. Cortland gave it their all and I feel for them. I think the game would have been a different story with Alex Smith in the line-up. But, injuries are part of the game. Rowan beat Cortland last year with their back-up QB and then went to the national semifinals against Mount Union. I don’t envy Cortland’s offense next week against what’s sure to be an angry Ithaca team. But, it’s the Jug, anything can happen. No tougher schedule in this part of the country than Rowan and Ithaca back-to-back.

    Congratulations to Alfred. I thought the Saxons would be good this year, but I wasn’t sure if they could compete with IC and SJF. I guess I have my answer. Only losses for Alfred to Springfield (Pool A) and Hobart (possible Pool C) and the Saxons I think still have a long shot at making the tournament. If they can beat Fisher, they may be able to get the bid to the playoffs that never came last year. They’ll need several things to fall into place however before that happens.

    An interesting stat I noticed today. For Hamilton College, in every game they have played, one team has been shut out. It’s literally been feast or famine. Both Hamilton wins are shutouts and they have been shut out five times, including today as they lost the “Old Rocking Chair” game to Middlebury, 10-0.

  6. Congratulations to Wilkes for winning the MAC. They apparently didn’t fool around with the team (Susquehanna) that may have done DelVal in 2 weeks ago … But we’ve pitched 2 consecutive shutouts since then (although today’s 1st half was pretty ugly – 3 fumbles lost) and are hoping, like Wilkes last year, for a chance to keep on playing after next week. Still have to beat a tough Widener team on their field, but hopefully a convincing win will make people think … Keepin’ hope alive! Go Aggies!!

  7. With so many playoffs bids locked in, is the SCAC next championship next weekend in Jackson, MS worth a trip for any of the D3 writers? Does the situation intrigue anyone? Any predictions?

  8. The situation intrigues us but I don’t have anyone to send, sorry. I need to stay close to home because I have to be in Bristol, Conn., for the selection show on Sunday. Keith has traveled four weeks in a row and needs to have a week off.

    And there really isn’t anyone else. I mean nobody here is full-time. There’s not a particularly big “staff” to draw from.

  9. Gordon, I think you have it backwards for the OAC:

    Capital: Baldwin Wallace (8-1, 7-1 OAC)
    Baldwin Wallace: Capital (7-2, 6-2 OAC)

  10. I knew I was bound to get something wrong, but I’m not sure this is it.

    Capital has one loss to Mount Union. B-W has two loses — Mount Union and Marietta.

  11. It was a great ride back from Geneva! Union really played a strong football game and dominated the Statesmen from beginning to end. Marotti was smart with the football, Arcidicano and Tillo ran great (offensive line nice job), and the defense was excellent. It was a solid win. Hobart could not handle the Dutchmen O, while the Dutchmen D handeled Hobart most of the day. Hats off to both teams for their efforts yesterday, Hobart is just not as good of a team as Union. Union is offically back. I am however nervous about next weekend. RPI (which I have to admit I love seeing them lose) is still a very dangerous and talented team. This weekend will be their NCAA playoff game if you know what I mean. I will say this, if Union chooses to look past RPI they will end the season with a loss. We want, we need, to keep the Dutchmen shoes, but the only way we will keep them is to play a great game this coming Saturday. I also think Arcidicano will be O.K. It seemed as if he sprained his ankle but watching him on the sidelines it did not seem to be season ending. Let’s hope that is the case, becuase he is simply fantastic. I also want to say that I was very impressed with Hobarts QB. Mizro is very mature and smart as a football player. He throws a great pass and reads the D very wel. He was just under constant pressure yesterday. He deserves a lot of credit.

  12. New to this board, I’m a Wilkes fan. Just reviewing some of the teams and conferences, what conference is stronger this year, the E8 or the NJAC? Next week Cortland St. hosts Ithaca, I believe this game will go a long way in determing which conference is stronger. Last year Wilkes got pounded by Rowan, away from home, this year we will most likely host a game. Big difference, I think Wilkes can make some noise in the first couple of rounds of playoffs… Thoughts comments?

  13. Union has certainly hit its stride. Hopefully their victory over Hobart was not a pyrrhic one as Arcidiacano was sidelined with a knee injury.
    We acknowledged Rochester early in the season as a formidable foe. Their victory over RPI yesterday leaves the Engineers looking for salvation against Union in the season finale. Inspite of a disappointing season for them, they will be sky high for the Dutchmen. Union should prevail but all bets are off on this one.

  14. Gordon: Interesting take. What are your thoughts on this: Springfield beats Norwich making it 9-1 overall and 5-1 in E8; Alfred beats SJF making them 8-2 overall and 5-1 E8. Springfield beats Alfred by 7 points after “Alfred’s lone miscue was a fumble at the Springfield 4-yard line three minutes into the final frame.”
    One touchdown game where statistics show game could have gone either way.
    What are chances of Alfred getting bid now?

  15. Union dominated Hobart. Union’s O-line was superior as was their entire defense. Union held Hobart on 1st and goal from the 2 yard line, at a point where a TD would have gotten Hobart back in the game. Union forced timely turnovers and seemingly every time Hobart thought they had then in their sights, Union pulled off a big play. Hobart’s secondary seemed confused all day. A very impressive performance by the Dutchman. My hats off to Union! They we clearly the better team yesterday.

  16. Well the USAC comes down to Ferrum v. CNU…I called it early this year. Oh wait…but it determines whether CNU or Averett head to the playoffs. Do I still get some credit? Anyways NCW has been flying under the radar all year. They have a solid club but just have not gotten the breaks, losing 4 games by a combined 10 points.

  17. I’ll jump in for Gordon and take the question about Alfred. In regards to the circumstances of their loses, it will have no effect on the selection committee’s decision. Two loses would be two loses. I think if Alfred defeats St. John Fisher and Ithaca in back-to-back weeks, they deserve to be in the tournament.

    Obviously that’s easier said than done. Also, look at the number of one loss teams that Gordon listed above. Some of those teams need to lose for Alfred to slip ahead of them.

  18. Millsaps-Trinity is intriguing, but as Pat said, we won’t be in the house. For a trip of that magnitude — we have been to Jackson before for a Millsaps game — we really have to plan it well in advance.

    I think Millsaps is one of those surprise teams that’s been on the creep all year. Everyone just assumes Trinity is going to win the SCAC, now Millsaps has its chance. This is exactly what the Automatic Qualifier system is in place for.

    As far as Alfred, the way they lose nor the margin of defeat is not official criteria, although the committee does have some discretion over its choices, but most it relies on the listed criteria (See our FAQ, answer No. 25: http://www.d3football.com/faq.php?answer&category=Playoffs&id=25).

    Alfred’s two one-score losses to playoff teams would actually carry less weight than having two wins (if it beats SJF, and Ithaca) over regionally-ranked teams, so keep a close eye on the regional rankings that come out this week (although I believe the committee re-ranks its top 10 in each region after the last week of games)

    There is precedent for two-loss teams getting in in Pool C, and not just last season with Wilkes and Cortland State.

    In Week 11 of 2003
    Ferrum beat Christopher Newport
    Buffalo State beat Washington & Jefferson
    Montclair State beat Rowan
    Cortland beat Ithaca

    Christopher Newport and Ithaca won playoff games the following week, as did Montclair State.
    Cortland and W&J played ECAC games, missing the NCAAs.
    Rowan missed the playoffs entirely.

    Point is, plenty can happen on the final week to help a two-loss team get in, even when it doesn’t look good, just as one-loss teams who look like they’re in good shape need to seal the deal.

    Dubuque, for instance, no longer a gimme in the IIAC, for Wartburg. Capital could fall to Baldwin-Wallace, although as noted, B-W might be the two-loss team that best meets the criteria.

  19. That’s a shame… It’s also homecoming for Millsaps. What is your outlook on the game? Any early predictions? Also, who is the likely opponent for the SCAC winner in the first round of the playoffs?

  20. If it’s Trinity, either UMHB or Hardin-Simmons, location TBD.

    If it’s Millsaps, no telling. They would end up probably as low seed and fly somewhere, be it (again) to one of the ASC teams or maybe to Wesley if the AA does a 1 vs. 8 for a change.

  22. How would Millsaps travel? They’d recieve a pool A bid for winning the championship. Doesn’t that entail a first round home game?

  24. To be more verbose, home field generally goes to teams that are seeded 1-4 in the region. With three losses Millsaps would probably be a 7 or 8 seed. Pool status has nothing to do with home field.

  26. Can’t help but notice that D3FB.com has “clumped together” all of the top teams in the East in their top 25 poll from spots 12 to 17: Wilkes, Rowan, Springfield, Cortland, Union, SJF. That’s D3FB’s way of saying they really don’t know who is tops in the east right now. I can sympathize for you can make arguments for or against any of the above as follows:

    Wilkes is the only (NCAA eligible) undefeated team in the region although its difficult to know just how good they are within the East Region as they have only ventured outside the MAC one time to play lowly Willie P.

    Rowan has perhaps the best defense in the nation, but their offense has been utterly ordinary this year. Is defense enough to carry them through the region?

    Springfield has been a dominant offensive team. Chris Sharpe may be the best player in the region, but their defense is average and if you contain Sharpe, as Ithaca did in the rain at Butterfield, you can beat the Pride.

    Cortland State had appeared to be the best team in the region with a defense that rivaled Rowan’s and a very respectable offense, but now with their QB down, can they even beat Ithaca for a Pool C bid to the NCAA’s?

    Union stumbled out of the gate without their All-American WR and struggled with a number of lessor teams until the last two weeks when they got everyone healthy and have put toghter impressive wins vs StL and previously unbeaten Hobart.

    SJF looked like the dominat team in the region with a big win vs Ithaca only to be derailed by Springfield’s wing-bone offense. Was the Springfield game an aberation or will SJF have problems with a high-pwered offense like Wilkes, Springfield or Union? Can they even beat Alfred to earn a Pool C?

    This picture can all be further muddled this weekend if the following reasonable possibilites occur: Kings over Wilkes, Ithaca over Cortland, RPI over Union, Alfred over SJF and UofR over Hobart.

    Here is my prediction. Coast Guard, after not winning a single game during its two year stint in the LL, will upset Curry in the NEFC championship game and then run the table in the East region. While the Coast Guard scenario could only play out in a bizarre parallel universe, it’s been one of those seasons in the East.

  31. OK, Linfields 3 losses came to the #7 and #9 ranked D3 schools and to a 6-3 D2 scholarship school, but there 5 wins came against schools with a combined record of 17-33, and next week they get a winless team to close out the year (so there wins will come from teams with a combined record of 17-42). They have beaten only one team with a winning record.

  32. If only you’d done your research before spouting off the first time, perhaps people would be willing to entertain you.

  33. Guys,

    If Capital beats BW this weekend, where do you see them in the playoffs?

    Do they stay in the North Region? Do you think, even as a pool C team with one loss they might get seeded 3rd or 4th, thus possibly hosting? With the NCAC being a mess and the NCAC champ having more than one loss, is a Capital vs. NCAC champ in Columbus a possibility (maybe a Witt rematch)? Someone on the OAC board mentioned Cap-MSJ in Cinci, but I see MSJ as the two seed in the region and I don’t see Capital as the 7. Am I way off base, or would travel, etc. trump any of that?

    If Millsaps beats Trinity (current south #2) this weekend and wins their conference, thus making them a three loss conf champ and likely eliminating Trinity from pool C contention , does Capital (again, if they beat BW this weekend) possibly get shipped out to the South, a la John Carroll to the East a few years ago?

    Just looking for some possible insight from people much smarter than I on the playoffs. Of course, this could all be moot if we don’t take care of business in Berea this weekend.

  34. JK,

    It depends on some other games, specifically how many teams make it out of the East. Capital is a decent team geographically to move to that bracket if, say, Cortland or St. John Fisher play themselves out of contention this weekend.

  35. Bottom line – Linfield should not be ranked – I don’t care who they lost to. The teams the beat tell the story.

    Entertain yourself – you are probably use to it.

  38. “Now I know” why some people think they should be ranked (I didn’t say I changed my mind). I don’t think they should be ranked – period.

  41. After Alfred handled IC, and if they beat St John Fisher, what other help do they need in order to make the tournament if Springfield beats Norwhitch which than springfield would take the auto bid

  42. TLM

    Coast Guard winner the East??? One of those seasons in the east? Although I can’t figure it out like the others, I do not see CG beating any of the NY schools in the playoff or springfield. CG’s only loss thus far is to Mer. Marine (21 -7) – who have a 3 -6 record. It will be interesting to see if Wilkes can get past the 1st rd. If the east can produce another national champ then probably some of these teams will move up in the overall rankings. Also, not sure how Union stumbled out of the blocks w/o AA wide receiver, they have put up 27 or more points every game. Defense seems to be the question.

    Congrats, thought to Rowan and Union for their big wins. Heard Springfield may have lost their big fullback???Can anyone confirm?

  43. Jimjearsa,

    Remove Linfield who has only beaten one team with a winning recorda and has three losses, and replace them with Concordia (Wis.), or Baldwin-Wallace.

    That would be “sensible”. Are you on Linfields payroll?

  45. NEfootball,

    Hopefully you realize that while I was writing my Coast Guard scenario, my tongue was firmly planted in my cheek. It was really a backhanded reference to how weak the NEFC is vs the LL.

    As for Union, if you have followed them closely, their offense has been carried by All-American running back Tom Arcidiacono for much of the season. Their Defense has been inconsistent as you point out. This combination resulted in a number of uncomfortably close games against the likes of USMMA, UofR, WPI and F&M as well as a season opening loss at Springfield.

    Right now the Union defense is playing very well and with the return of both of Union’s injured WR’s, the offense has all of their weapons back and could be a formidable team to face in the playoffs.

  46. I would like make an apology to pcole and the users of D3football.com for a remark I made at the end of a comment earlier today. In no way did I intend to offend anyone.

  47. tlm

    we are on the same page! Heard UC’s running back #1 injured his ankle and may not be ready for rpi. #2 running back seemed to hold his own against Hobart according to stats with over 100 yards on 19 carries. UC will need Arcidiacono back to make deep into the playoffs.

  48. I agree tlm, I think you are right on. Although I am very happy for Coast Guard they simply will not be able to conted for much outside the NEFC. I agree with GOP about Linfield but I think he is coming on a little too strong. His “entertain” reply to Pat is not O.k. Can’t people make a point today without insulting others? tlm being a huge Union fan I have been very critical throughout the year regarding their defense. The past two games, especially Saturday I was really impressed with their schemes. They mixed it up a lot and tackled hard. The DBs were reading Mizro well (whom I think is hard to read) and adjusting to Hobarts O changes. I feel must agree with you that they will be a lot to handle during the NCAAS. I am just worried about RPI first.

  49. As a relative newcomer who only started following this season, I’ve noticed there’s an awful lot of bickering over which teams deserve credit for playing tough versus easy schedules. Linfield remains at #24 in the rankings because of a very subjective evaluation of their schedule (3 losses to good teams and one victory against a team above .500). I’m not familiar enough to say whether the teams they’ve played that are below .500 are better than other teams that are below .500. Meanwhile, Whitworth, on the strength of beating supposedly “good” Linfield (the only above .500 team they’ve beaten), moves up to number 9. CMU has similar credentials, having beaten one team above .500 and an identical record, and is ranked 27.

    It seems to me that the QOWI is a rather naive measuring device since it doesn’t take into account the strength of an opponent’s schedule. Is there any NCAA strength of schedule number like they have for D1A? That would be a very useful tool for comparing these teams.

    I know that Pat and the voters are much more familiar with the relative strengths of conferences than I am, but that can tend to lead to subconscious biases, just as happens in all levels of sports. It would be good if we actually had a mathematical way to compare the teams beyond the QOWI.

    I’m not trying to criticize anyone here. I just think that all this arguing is somewhat fruitless if we don’t have a better way to compare strength of schedule.

  50. SC’s Andrew Jackson went down in the 2nd quarter with an ankle injury. He was on the sidelines with ice on the ankle the entire 2nd half. It appears to be the same ankle that sidelined him earlier this season. Not sure if he will be ready for duty against Norwich this coming week.

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