What a difference a week makes.

Last week at this time I was shocked at Chris Sharpe’s performance for Springfield against St. John Fisher and shocked at Susquehanna upsetting Delaware Valley. Just seven days later Springfield gets held to single digits by Ithaca and Delaware Valley looked down right giddy after a gritty win over King’s.

And then there are things that never change. Mount Union 38 Capital 12.

I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot of questions the next two days over how the Empire 8 and CCIW will sort out their three-way tie at the top, should they have one two weeks from now. I don’t know how the Empire 8 will break the tie for their AQ since every conference does it differently. Thanks to the North Central website, here is how the CCIW would handle things.

The Cardinals (6-2/4-1) sit atop the CCIW standings along with the Vikings (5-3/4-1) and Wheaton College (7-1/4-1). Should all three win out, the tiebreaker is point differential between the three schools. Augustana edged Wheaton 17-14 and Wheaton defeated North Central 20-7. The Cardinals’ 27-point victory gives them the edge in point differential.”

Wheaton (Ill.) would still have a good shot at a Pool C bid as they have one-loss and a 10.571 Quality of Win Index (QOWI) coming into this week. Augustana is now just 5-3 in region and will probably miss the playoffs. If you’re a Vikings fan, you’ll need IWU or Carthage to upset North Centralin the last two weeks. That would create a two-way tie at the top between Augustana and Wheaton, with the Vikings winning the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Teams that helped their playoff cause

Well, Concordia (Wis.) for starters. They clinched the Illinois-Badger Football Championship and its AQ today. Congratulations to Coach Gabrielsen and the rest of the Falcons for being the first ones into the party. Mt. St. Joseph pretty much wrapped up another HCAC title by beating Defiance. Wilkes can do the same in the MAC by winning either of its last two games, thanks to Del Val beating King’s today.

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NOTE: In my haste to post this, I overlooked three other teams that locked up bids with wins today. St. Norbert clinched the MWC and its automatic bid by beating Beloit. Even if the Green Knights stumble against Illinois College next week, they would finish the MWC season with a one-game advantage on their closest competitors. The MWC wraps up its season a week early.

As best I can tell, Occidental clinched the SCIAC with their come-from-behind win over Cal Lutheran. The Tigers now have a lead of two games or more on every team but Redlands (3-1 in conference). But Oxy already beat the Bulldogs and only has one conference game left. The worst Oxy can do is finish tied with Redlands and they have the head-to-head tie-breaker advantage.

And Wesley came as close to clinching a Pool B bid as you can by beating Salisbury 13-10. The Wolverines wrapped up the ACFC title and, more importantly for the playoffs, finished their regional season 5-0. The last two games against Chowan (D-II) and Morrisville State (D-III Provisional) won’t impact the record the NCAA Committee looks at for the playoffs.
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Wartburg rallied from a 10-point deficit to beat Buena Vista in overtime and avoid that critical second loss. Considering that the Knights were ranked 10th in the first regional rankings, they may be on the fringe of Pool C consideration as it is. And beating Cornell and Dubuque in the final two weeks won’t boost their QOWI that much. Speaking of teams with one loss, here’s what we’re left with.

Hardin- Simmons
Wheaton
Two of St. John Fisher, Ithaca and Springfield
Franklin
Wartburg
Bethel
Rowan
Capital
UW-LaCrosse

Dropped off: Alfred, Sul Ross State, Defiance, Wooster

Added: Springfield

Special thanks to “TecmoBowler” on the message board for doing the leg work here. He also broke down the biggest games left for each team before this week.

That’s 10 teams for seven spots, assuming the Pool B teams don’t take a Pool C bid. I still think that we’re going to have a two-loss Pool C team in the playoffs when it’s all said and done.

The team that best fits that profile right now is Baldwin-Wallace. The Yellow Jackets are the only team in the regional rankings with two-losses outside of those that need to win their conference to get in. If they can beat Capital in the final game, they would have an edge over the Crusaders. And not getting shelled by Mount Union looks good, too.

Teams that hurt their cause

Aside from the teams who picked up that dreaded second loss today, Rowan tops this list with its overtime loss to Montclair State. The Profs now either have to beat Cortland State next week to take over first in the NJAC or could miss the playoffs entirely. What a turnaround for a national title contender. For that matter, what a turnaround for Montclair State who got mashed 41-3 last week by Cortland. My unsung hero of the day — Vin Doffont who kicked two field goals over 40-yards in the Red Hawks win. If the weather in North Jersey is like what it was in Northeast PA, that’s very impressive.

I know Rowan’s offense has been subjected to a lot of criticism this year. But the Profs’ defense today gave up a 78-yard pass for one score, a nine-play 91-yard drive for another, a 43-yard drive in the final two minutes to allow the tying field goal and a score in overtime.

At a glance, it looks like Alma is out of the MIAA hunt. The best they could do is finish in a three-way tie with Olivet and Hope at 5-2 and the Comets and Dutch both already beat the Scots. How much of the MIAA title will be on the line next week when the Comets and Dutch play? Olivet! Let’s Hope we get a good game (ducks tomato).