65 thoughts on “Your team’s playoff chances”

1. I’ll take care of it, Keith. 🙂

   Drew, nobody in the SCAC with two losses has any chance to get a Pool C bid, not DePauw, not Trinity. Even a 9-1 DPU would not have been a lock; this year there are too many good teams who are likely to end up with one loss to consider a two loss team from a conference that’s not exactly known for its overall strength.

   The SCAC will send one team to the playoffs – the conference champion.

2. Pat,

   Nice picture of Robinson from Wesley. That young man is proving to be a monster to deal with. I stand somewhat corrected on the exposure for Wesley! Thanks for the great work you and D3 staff put in week after week.

3. Well, Laxx, as I said, only a couple of the games on Wesley’s schedule are interesting. This was one of them. But that’s not relevant to “Your team’s chances at the playoffs.”

4. The NCAA releases its first regional rankings this week, by the way.

5. IF Springfield and SJF run the table, does SJF get a pool C?

6. St. John Fisher 10.875 QOWI 7-1 in-region, 7-1 overall

   Yeah, I think SJF would be about as close to a lock as there can be if they run the table.

7. Carnegie Mellon is one of 3 (not sure if Williams makes 4 or not) pool B teams with no losses. Are they a lock if they go undefeated and do they have a shot if they end up with one loss?

8. Ithaca beats Sprigfield. The three top E8 teams run the table.

   Each is 9-1.

   Springfield has quality wins against Union, Fisher, and Montclair.

   Ithaca has quality wins versus Huntingdon, Springfield, and Cortland.

   Fisher has a quality wins against Ithaca, and decent wins over Rochester and King’s.

   Chaos ensues.

9. Thanks Ron. Of course, part of the fun is getting two opinions (not that mine is much different).

   I don’t like DePauw’s chances, even with a Monon Bell win over Wabash.

   Unlike last season, with a 5-point loss to playoff-bound Wesley heading into the Monon Bell game, the Tigers would have been in good shape. Not playing Trinity helped.

   As of now, two losses is not looking good in Pool C. A lot can still happen, but informally, on the Pool C thread on the General Football thread of Post Patterns, we are speculating as many as 16 Pool C teams for seven slots.

   I would eliminate DePauw at this point, among other teams who recently sustained their second loss. Certainly the in-region rules, QOW and out-of-division games allow for exceptions to the two-loss line in the sand, but generally speaking, at-large chances plummet with the second loss.

10. Williams is not under consideration for a playoff bid, nor is any NESCAC team ever. Their choice.

    The three 9-1s in E8 would first go to the tiebreaker (which I wrote about in a late ATN last year) to decide the AQ, then the head-to-head winner you’d think would have the lead on an at-large bid, but actually the team that better meets playoff criteria, including QOW and in-region games, which Ithaca-Huntingdon is not, would get the bid.

    So that sets the table for someone (SJF) to claim they’re getting screwed by getting passed over for the playoffs by a team it beat (Ithaca). The Bombers would probably get a healthy QOW boost if they beat Cortland.

    Alfred still very much in the Pool C running though, although their road to the E8 title is probably blocked by their earlier loss to Springfield. Season-ending consecutive wins over Hobart, Ithaca and SJF would make about as strong a Pool C case as possible.

11. I don’t think I can talk playoffs with Rowan and IC still to come on Cortland’s schedule. I will say however that this is the best team I have seen at Cortland since 1988. Considering how much admission requirements have risen at Cortland since then, it really is a testament to the coaching staff and their recruiting efforts.

    What I will say is this season is Eastern Region’s best chance to make a big splash in the last 10 years. Multiple undefeated teams, big out of region victories (Rowan blowout over CNU, Brockport and Montclair blowout over Salisbury…). It looks from a scores-comparison perspective that Eastern Region is at least ahead of Southern Region this season.

    It makes you wonder…how would Mt Union handle the intracacies of Springfield’s triple-option? It is my feeling you have serious national contenders in the East right now – Cortland, Rowan, Ithaca, Springfield, Union, Wilkes, and Fisher. I put Hobart right behind this group – if they take out Alfred and Union they will prove themselves elite.

    Late November should be real exciting around these parts.

12. Keith –

    Don’t forget if IC beats Springfield this week, Alfred can move into a virtual tie for the E8 with Fisher, Springfield and IC. What a mess that could be. Alfred still has Fisher and IC ahead on their schedule so anything can happen if Springfield loses this week.

13. In assessing the chances of Springfield, SJF and Ithaca should there be a three way tie, there are a few items worth keeping in mind.

    – The NCAA is looking at regional games so Ithaca’s win over Huntingdon won’t help them much. Should the Hawks be regionally ranked (possible), that might be a nice, uh, feather in the Bombers’ cap.

    – Given the NCAA’s Quality of Win (QOW), it is better to lose on the road to a great team (7 points) than at home (6 points). That’s a disadvantage to SJF who lost at home to Springfield.

    – If you really want to get manic about this, you can watch not just your team but the teams your team already beat. You want them to win as many games as possible to boost your QOW.

    For example, SJF fans should be rooting hard for U of R and King’s to both finish above .500. Fortunately that’ll only take one more win for each. I think King’s will get their’s this week against Del Val, if not next against FDU. And Rochester should beat Grove City.

    Springfield fans can pull for Montclair who is at 3-3 in region with tough games against Rowan and WCSU.

    IC fans have less to watch here. The teams they’ve beaten are unlikely to get to .500 (Buffalo State, Brockport State) in region.

    Plus Pride fans get a surprise bonus here – Husson is 4-3 in region and will likely finish 5-3 by beating winless Becker. Believe it or not, Springfield beating Husson in Maine means more to them (13 points QOW) than Ithaca or SJF beating Brockport (11 points QOW), who can finish no better than 3-5 in region.

14. Cortland–

    It’s funny that you mention the East’s chances at winning a championship.

    I think there is more parity at the top this year than previously when it was Rowan and everyone else. I could see any of the teams you mentioned winning the East unless Rowan finds that Profetic offensive gear they normally have.

    But I don’t think the East probably has any more chance to win the title this year than next. Yes, the East compares favorably with the South. But that doesn’t mean they will play them in the semifinals. They may have to go through the North’s best team (guess who?) and then the West’s to win a title. Ouch.

    Springfield’s triple option is fun to watch, but I doubt they run all over Mount Union. Just ask the Augustana fans how well a one-dimensional offense does against the Purple Raiders come November. Plus there is usually one team in the region (Widener in 00, RPI in 03) with enough to balance to short-circuit the Pride.

    Each of the other teams you mentioned have some considerable questions of their own.

    Can Rowan find the offensive touch in time to win a game that’s a shootout? You could ask the same question of Wilkes.

    Can Springfield, Union, Ithaca or SJF stop a high powered offense?

    Interestingly enough, the one team which appears to have enough balance at this point is the team that bears your handle…

15. Interesting too because they are playing with the backup qb, who has all of 1 start under his belt. 🙂

    But like I said Cortland still has to travel to Rowan, and host IC. If they can finally beat Rowan I’ll feel more confident in assessing their playoff potential.

16. I would sort of agree with Gordon.

    Despite looking good vs. the south so far. Throw Ithaca-Huntingdon in there and you can use that and Rowan-CNU to do comparative scores all the way to Texas, and even out to Linfield (though that might take five degrees of separation).

    But in the end, there’s no way to really tell yet if any one of those east teams is strong enough to get to Salem. You don’t really want a lot of competition, unless beating it helps prop up that one team that rises to the top. Since so much is still in doubt in New York and New Jersey, we don’t know if the East will even send an undefeated team into the playoffs, much less a title contender.

    I think there are a handful of East teams starting to give East fans a reason to believe, but they all have tests to pass still (except maybe Wilkes). Likewise, the consensus Stagg Bowl favorites could conceivably each lose this weekend and throw a monkey wrench into everything.

    One thing that does make me wonder though … take a team like Rowan. Are they so good on defense that they can snuff a dominant offense long enough to get deep into the playoffs? I thought King’s had that kind of D in ’02, and if not for the wind tunnel that Bridgewater calls a home field, we might have been surprised.

    Sometimes I think dominant on one side of the ball teams can outplay balance if they get hot enough … just some more YOUR TEAM things to think about.

17. CMURyan:

    I think any Pool B team that runs the table on anything resembling a real schedule (i.e., not a UMAC schedule) gets a bid.

18. I back that.

19. Gordon –

    One more point of clarification. I’ve been looking over my own power rankings, and those of Massey and the LazIndex. This season there are more Eastern Region teams in the Top 15 (and even top 10) than I can remember over the last several years.

    That has had me thinking the last few weeks that Eastern Region was much stronger this season than in recent memory.

    Currently my power rankings put Springfield, Cortland and Fisher in the Top 10 nationally. Ithaca, Wilkes, and Hobart are in the Top 20. Union is top 25…so is Kean (????)

    I couldn’t get into Laz’s site tonight. Massey’s rankings paint a similar picture for Eastern Region teams, although I think their ranking of Mt Union is way too low.

    Do my rankings carry any weight? Well, I have thoroughly tested them since I have developed them over 2 decades. I find they accurately predict the following week’s winners about 73% of the time mid way through the season, and more like 75-80% in the final few weeks.

    With that in mind here are my computer’s (not mine) predictions:

    Cortland will win the NJAC, Rowan will have only 1 D3 regional loss.

    Springfield will win the E8, Fisher will beat Alfred and finish 9-1.

    Hobart will beat Alfred, Union and Rochester. Although all 3 are close games. That means no LL teams with fewer than 2 losses except the champion. My personal belief is Hobart will lose 1 of these games, just based on the odds of so many close games, and that will hurt their seeding.

    Curry will beat Coast Guard for the NEFC crown.

    That would leave my regional 8 at:

    Springfield
    Cortland
    Rowan
    Hobart
    SJ Fisher
    Curry
    Ithaca in if they win Cortaca
    Union in if they keep Hobart close and beat RPI
    WestConn in if they beat Kean and Union loses to RPI??? Certainly not a lock! Otherwise the door opens for Rochester, or Alfred if they beat Hobart.

    Springfield will probably draw Curry. Cortland-Hobart would be an interesting rematch but both will probably be top 4 seed so it won’t be in the first round.

    That’s my first messy guess. I want to see what happens this week with Hobart-Alfred and Springfield-IC.

20. Duh, I forgot to include the MAC. Don’t take it personal Gordon. 🙂

    So that puts Wilkes in as the champ. But a second team? Much like the LL and E8, expect a lot of 2+ loss teams sitting around.

21. Sounds good, Cortland.

    Good stuff.

22. CFB –

    Gordon & Co are more qualified than I to comment your overall power rankings and methodology, but I think your assessment of Hobart is pretty much right on. They could win out, but may drop one unless they assert themselves more in the next 3 games. I wouldn’t be surprised in either scenario.

    They have lived on the edge for most of the season, but the last 2 games have started to click. I think they are hitting their stride, but Saterday (as the Alfred faithful would say) will be the first step in determining whether or not this team deserves it’s #18 ranking or not.

    It appears that this year’s Alfred squad will be the best all around team Hobart will have faced to date. Union is well, Union and I think most Bart faithful have had that game circled on their calendars since the end of last year’s (de facto LL championship) game.

    Never know what to expect with the Bees. Although Hobart has had a solid track record in defeating them, every once in a while they sting us when we least expect it (2003 being a prime example).

    Either way, it’s great to see so many East teams doing well. The one and only thing I dislike about D3 fb is that with “You Know Who” around, it pretty much makes the final 4 pretty predictable (and anticlimatic) for East fans every year (with maybe Rowan fans being the only exception).

23. Cortland football,

    — How many of the 7 total Pool C bids do you foresee going to the East?

    –Which is the first Pool C? the second Pool C? the third Pool C? etc.

    –Imagine you are sitting around the National Evaluation Selection Table. How do you justify that second and third Pool C bid from the East over the candidates in the other Regions?

    I am not calling you out, but Keith and Pat et al. have provided this forum for us to try to anticipate what will happen. (We fans seem to be getting better at this every year!) I am trying to follow your line of thinking.

    Thanks! 🙂

24. Speculating on the LL outcome is an exercise in futility. The league is beginning to resemble the ECACHL where parity pervades almost across the board. Hobart looks like a lock unless they unravel, which is unlikely. RPI must be really, really mad. You can count on a high ferocity quotient out of Troy these next few weeks. Union seems somewhat enigmatic. This was a team at the start of the season with real Stagg Bowl aspirations. St. Lawrence will be no walk in the park for the Dutchmen. Presuming they win, the Hobart game is a toss-up. RPI is RPI, no matter their record. All we know is that the next three weeks are going to be very entertaining.

25. Augustana will be in.

    Assuming they beat a tough North Central team this weekend they will probably go undefeated in the CCIW, which will seal the deal.

    Whoever makes the playoffs this year, I hope “the powers that be” can build a FAIR bracket. Last year was pathetic. They will probably have UW Whitewater playing Mount Onion in the first round.

26. CMURyan-Check out discussion on the N Region UAA Board. One player’s brother posts there and has some insights.

27. Sorry, that’s in Post Patterns.

28. How Does Alfred look? If they win out, they will be in the playoffs, correct? Do they have to win out to make it? How do you feel about the matchup between Alfred and Hobart his week, i believe this and Sprinfield vs IC are the games of the week

29. I beleive Alfred’s chances are slim to none in terms of winning out. But yes, they would make the playoffs (especially since that would end Fisher and Ithaca’s year).

30. Outside of Rankings, QOW, and conference standings, What 8 teams are prepared to make it deep into the playoff. I guess everyone feels Mt. Union and UW-WW are very capable so who are the other 6?

    I round out my top “Prepared” 8 with the following 6:
    Wesley
    Rowan
    Occidental
    MHB
    Hardin Simmons
    CNU

31. do you think its possible for alfred to beat hobart? What do you predict the score will be

32. I wouldn’t touch that question, RunFerrum, until I see the bracket. There’s no use trying to predict a UMHB/Hardin-Simmons regional final if they get matched up in the first round (i.e. if Trinity somehow doesn’t win the SCAC).

    You have two West Region, four South Region, one East and one North in your eight anyway.

    If I had to go with two teams from each region now … I’d go St. John’s/UWW in the West (although I like Whitworth and La Crosse and Central as other possibilities), Wesley and UMHB in the South, Mount Union and Capital in the North and Cortland/Rowan and who knows, I guess Springfield, in the East.

    Still so much that can happen though, I think it’s fruitless to predict at this point.

33. If Alfred won out, they would be a playoff lock, although possibly second to Springfield in the E8. Pool C, reddogg.

    If they go 2-1, they might have a shot, depending on the quality of the two teams they’ve lost to, because they would still have wins over two teams who will presumably finish better than .667

34. Oh, or CNU in the South. From two posts ago.

    I shouldn’t have even named names, it’s too early, in my humble opinion. Still a lot to be decided and proven, and then there are 1-2 unexpected playoff runs each year, so …

35. PCole and Keith,

    In regards to CMU making it to the playoffs, Do you think it will be automatic if they run the table? You mentioned any Pool B team playing a “real” schedule would make it in your opinion. I see that CMU has a 9.5 QOW ranking. If you look at who CMU has played or will play you will see that only 2 teams have a .500 or above record: Wash U and Thiel. If this holds true then why wouldn’t teams drop from their conferences and be an independent and schedule 10 easy teams if that gets them in the playoffs? I don’t know if CMU is a lock if they run the table? What if they lose one game? Rockford has a higher QOW with one loss outside the region but the UMAC doesn’t count? Just curious what your thoughts are.

36. Well,
    based on criteria like the QOW index, 10 victories is going to give you a solid score, no matter who you beat, but the score is going to be better if some of those teams are over .500 or .667.

    I think Carnegie Mellon is in at 10-0, and has a chance at 9-1 if Linfield loses to Whitworth. I’m not so sure Rockford wouldn’t make it at 10-0, but the schedule they play does not have many other teams with many wins on it. In the committee’s point of view, whatever subjective influence they have would certainly not favor a team that plays a “weak” schedule. Which means those teams could get in but get poor matchups.

    Dropping from a conference doesn’t make a lot of sense because by being in one, teams know they get a shot at a title every year, they schedule 6-9 games with virtually no effort and manageable travel, their players are rewarded with all-conference honors, and they have someone to go to bat for them with regards to officials, rules, etc. Also, dropping from a conference just in football could have implications in other sports where it may be smarter to stay in the conference.

    Going 10-0 against an easy schedule is a risky proposition because schedules that look easy don’t always turn out that way and vice versa, not to mention you have to know you have a team that’s good enough to go 10-0 vs. an easy schedule if the schedule is so flimsy that 9-1 wouldn’t do the trick. One slip up and the so-called plan would be out the window.

    Also, CMU’s schedule might not get them a home game in the first round vs. W&J … it might mean they get sent somewhere like Mount Union or Capital (even though they are technically a South Region team, they are close enough to bus and not fly, which factors into how the brackets are set up).

    In other words, getting in is one thing. The matchup you get (aka your seed) is based on the schedule you played and the success against it, so it as always more favorable to have done better against tough teams than weak ones, even if that is sometimes out of a team’s control.

    Being in certain conferences sometimes guarantees a team 2 or 3 tough games it might not be able to schedule otherwise, and with wins or just one loss against those tough teams, it can lead to good placement in the playoffs.

37. D3Keith- your probably right. Since Ferrum is not in the picture I just ready for the playoffs to start.

38. Ralph –

    Fair question, and one which was already on my mind. The easy cop-out answer is that is too early to make that call, and I’m going to go with the easy cop-out for now. 🙂 A lot of fringe questions could be answered in the East this weekend, particularly if Hobart beats Alfred (assuming Alfred doesn’t turn around and beat Fisher and IC).

    Also we can rule out Pool B among Eastern teams, since Brockport is the only team I can think of playing in a Pool B conference and they obviously aren’t getting in.

    Even though I think the East is solid this season, I think you could see a team imported into their bracket as a Pool C or Pool B because there are already a lot of 2 loss East teams, and will probably be a few more by week 11.

39. If CMU runs the table then their QOW will get higher. They should probably get 13, 11 and 10 points for the Wash U., Thiel and Bethany games, raising the average.

40. I suppose the topic of Wesley has been raised before. They look to be going 10-0 unless they stuble hard. Does the ACFC get an automatic bid? I realize Wesley is rated 5th in the country. Will they be in a pool or get an automatic. Once there I see them doing good in their region but think it would near impossible to beat UW whitewater ot Mt Union. Your thoughts…

41. Pool B will be interesting… I do not see how both W&J and CMU can get in without one being a Pool C team. At this point they would probably battle with Wartburg for the last bid….Currently my pool B bids would be Wesley, Hobart/Union winner, Whitworth/Linfield winner, and W&J leaving out CMU.

42. Mille-

    Pool B is for independents and for conferences lacking an automatic bid (

43. Sorry about that.

    Whitworth/Linfield, Hobart/Union, and W&J/Waynesburg are all competing for automatic bids into Pool A, with the losers falling into Pool C candidacy.

    Wesley and CMU look like Pool B locks unless they stumble. It is possible for both to become Pool C candidates if there are a large amount of Pool B candidates and Pool C is particularly weak, but that doesn’t appear to be the case this season.

44. rmac,
    The ACFC does not have an automatic bid. However, Wesley should be in good shape for a bid even if they stumble once. Pool B is guaranteed (but not limited to) four bids, and already Linfield and W&J have losses.

    Pool B looks to be five teams right now, with all of them having a shot at stealing a Pool C bid.
    If unbeaten, Wesley, Carnegie Mellon, Whitworth would all get in.
    Whitworth could get in with a only a loss to Linfield.
    W&J cannot lose again; if they do, they will need some help.
    Linfield must beat Whitworth.

    Now, the above and everything regarding Pool B is relative. In other words, if three or four of the five lose, then the net effect of the losses we now think would eliminate a team from playoff contention would actually not be so severe. However, with losses, the ability of a Pool B team to grade out high enough on the criteria to steal a Pool C bid plummets.

    Hope that makes sense.

    Cortland & mille,
    Unless I’m mistaken, Linfield and Whitworth are chasing Pool B bids while Hobart and Union are chasing Pool A/C automatic bids.

    While the NWC does have seven teams, it is in the first year of a two-year waiting period after adding Menlo before receiving its AQ. In theory, I imagine this rule is in place to keep teams from jumping from conference to conference willy-nilly and affecting the number of available bids. It probably protects the teams that would lose AQ access as much as it limits conferences who want to get it.

    The PAC (W&J) is in the same boat, although I believe they’re in their second year of waiting after adding Thomas More last season.

    The Liberty League is an AQ league and would not affect any of the Pool B bids.

    There are 21 AQ bids, four bids for independents and teams in leagues who do not have AQs, and seven for runners-up in AQ leagues or independents/non-AQ teams who did not get one of the first four bids available to them.

    That’s as clearly as I can explain it.

45. Good call Keith. I did the lazy man’s approach to research and counted the number of NWC teams listed on the D3 Standings page. Mille will know better than to listen to me from now on!

46. Keith,

    Thank you for the clarification. For some reason I thought that the Liberty League was in Pool B but I now see that I was mistaken. Based on that I really think that PoolB will be Wesley, Whitworth, W&J, and CMU. Linfield would need to be Whitworth or would need W&J or CMU to lose to be in the discussion. I must say that if I was an on the bubble Pool C team like Wartburg that Linfield would scare me. I am interested to get your thoughts on my projected regional seedings (I will post later).

    And Cortland…. I did get a laugh out of your previous post.

47. My predictions (i realize seedings will change based in geography)

    West

    1) UWwhitewater 2) St Johns 3) Occidental 4) Whitworth
    5) Central 6) St Norbert 7) UW Lacrosse 8) Wartburg

    South

    1) Wesley 2) Mary Hardin Baylor 3) Hardin Simmons 4) Trinity
    5) C. Newport 6) W & L 7) W & J 8) Carnegie Mellon

    East

    1) Cortland 2) Springfield 3) Hobart/Union 4) Wilkes
    5) Rowan 6) St John Fisher 7) Dickinson 8) Curry/Coast Guard

    North

    1) Mt Union 2) Capital 3) Concordia (Wis) 4) Mt St Joseph/Defiance 5) Wooster/Wabash 6) Augustana 7) Wheaton 8) Hope

    Last few in: CMU, Wheaton, Wartburg
    Last few out: Linfield
    Pool B: Wesley, Whitworth, W &J, CMU
    Pool C: Capital, Rowan, Hardin-Simmons, Wheaton, UW Lacrosse, St John Fisher, Wartburg

    Ithaca and Alfred were left out because their remaining schedules are so difficult, I do not believe they can run the table. Wow, the West is tough and North is weak. I look forward to comments.

48. I don’t think Wartburg would be any more on the bubble than any of the other one-loss teams you mention, especially if Central goes on to beat Coe and Wartburg’s one loss is to a 10-0 team.

    The Capital/Mount Union, Rowan/Cortland State losers might also be in that boat, as would La Crosse.

    I think Wheaton is the weakest of that group.

    Fisher could be helped if King’s (which it beat 30-0 in the opener) manages to snag the MAC from Wilkes. But then Wilkes would be a solid Pool C candidate that might bump them out.

    The Empire 8 has four legitimate contenders and a lot left to settle, so who knows about Fisher. They could still be Pool A if a three-way tie scenario that they could win exists. SJF has the head-to-head over Ithaca. Springfield has it over Alfred and SJF.

    Alfred must play Hobart, Ithaca and SJF still.
    Ithaca must play Springfield, Alfred and Cortland State.

    Either of those two would be a Pool C lock if it managed to sweep its slate and finish second. One of those two will definitely lose and knock the other out when they play each other.

    I think Wheaton would be the odd team out if Augustana, with two losses, wins the CCIW. They would have finished runner-up to a “weaker” conference champion than La Crosse, Hardin-Simmons, OAC 2nd, NJAC 2nd and Wartburg.

    I also think with a win over Whitworth that Linfield is in, especially if Hardin-Simmons is also in, which may mean five Pool Bs and one fewer Pool C.

    I looked at Carnegie Mellon’s schedule and it is weaker than I thought. I may start backing up off my ’10-0 definitely gets them in’ line of thinking, even though I am philosophically opposed to excluding unbeaten teams from the playoffs.

49. Wartburg also lost in OT to Central.

    La Crosse lost 45-10 to its champion.

    While margin of victory is not official criteria, that may help you understand where Wartburg sits.

    If Central were to lose to Coe, there would be no three-way tie because of the Kohawks’ losses to Loras and Wartburg. So Central at 9-1 could win the IIAC, but I still think that helps Wartburg some because they would have beat a team (Coe) that beat the conference champ.

    That’s all speculative at this point. Pat might be checking in later this week with an official projection based on the criterion.

    Don’t forget that Linfield is operating as a one-loss team (Hardin-Simmons) and Rowan is essentially an undefeated at this point. You can throw out the out-of-divison losses until the seeding process.

50. Also,
    the seeds don’t change based on geography, it’s just that because of geography, there’s no guarantee 1 will play 8, 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5.

    You may have known that and just not worded it the way you wanted to, but I thought I’d clarify.

    That’s important though because in later rounds, the seeds determine who hosts.