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Quick Hits: Welcome to the season

Thirty-one teams didn’t start their season with the rest of us last week, and while 10 of those are from the NESCAC and would just never play in Week 1 and one was Occidental, which played a game against a Mexican team, basically the rest are getting on the field this week for the first time.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Ryan Carlson, former defensive end at Linfield, producer of any awesome Linfield football video you’ve seen in the past decade or so, and 2018 inductee into the school’s hall of fame.

— Pat Coleman

Which game is Week 2’s game of the week?

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Keith’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at No. 12 UW-Whitewater. Both are in the top 18 on my ballot.
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Ryan’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 21 Illinois Wesleyan. I think a lot of people are curious about how good UW-L is.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 10 Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas). Trinity pounded McMurry last week, but this is the much more difficult Abilene opponent.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at UWW. The Warhawks looked like the UWW of old in Week 1 and have a prove-it game in Week 2.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at UWW. The Cobbers have remained a consistent team over the last six years and can play UWW with a “nothing to lose” approach.
Ryan Carlson
Ryan’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at UWW. I was going to pick Macalester at Hamline just to give my guy Adam Johnson a thrill but that might hurt my “tremendous” amount of credibility.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

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Keith’s take: No. 18 Johns Hopkins. Susquehanna led by 10 at the start of the fourth last year, and is at home this time.
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Ryan’s take: No. 18 Johns Hopkins. Susquehanna looked too good last week to gloss over them.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 21 Illinois Wesleyan. This is one spot where the preseason poll and my ballot diverge fairly significantly.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 21 Illinois Wesleyan. UW-La Crosse is determined to keep its momentum from 2017 going, and a non-conference win over a ranked opponent on the road would be the next step.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 24 RPI. RPI struggled early against Allegheny, and with the Transit Trophy on the line, WPI could surprise some folks.
Ryan Carlson
Ryan’s take: No. 21 Illinois Wesleyan. However, UWO is playing a second year D-II and had some struggles last weekend but would losing to a D-II really be called an upset?

Which team making its debut in Week 2 will wish it had a game under its belt?

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Keith’s take: Kean. Springfield rushed for 445 yards last week, although maybe the Cougars have had an extra week to drill triple option.
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Ryan’s take: DePauw. At least they don’t have to go on the road to play Central.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: William Paterson. What might have seemed like an achievable game in Dustin Johnson’s coaching debut changed when FDU beat TCNJ.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Texas Lutheran. Opening the season against Hendrix QB Miles Thompson is no easy task. Last year, Thompson carved up the Bulldogs for 433 yards and four TDs.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Kean. Springfield got its offense humming in Week 1, meaning the Kean defense will have a tough task right of the bat.
Ryan Carlson
Ryan’s take: Linfield. I fully believe that Linfield is going to go out to Carroll College and win, but the Saints already have two games in. That just makes the challenge that much greater.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

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Keith’s take: Hope at Defiance. In this dictionary-words matchup, eager to see step Matsakis’ (hired July 26) Yellow Jackets take after rough first week.
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Ryan’s take: Hendrix at Texas Lutheran. A good one between teams legitimately eyeing conference titles.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Lawrence at Carleton. I’ll be spending another Saturday off the beaten path, but I love all of D-III.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 7 North Central at Lake Forest. Because I’ll be there in person to see how these two teams are replacing production of their respective 2017 all-conference running backs.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Union at Coast Guard. Both teams were supposed to beat their Maine opponents last week. We’ll learn a lot about both as this game could go either way.
Ryan Carlson
Ryan’s take: Macalester … naw, Pacific Lutheran at Cal Lutheran. This the Lutes’ first game without a Westering as head coach since 1971. I just want to know if PLU is still going to do their ridiculous pregame warmup.

Who will bounce back from a Week 1 blowout and win?

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Keith’s take: Guilford. I like the Quakers hosting Methodist; oh wait, that Week 1 game never happened. 😉
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Ryan’s take: Allegheny. The Gators’ turnaround begins Saturday.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Stevenson. I’m not sure that the Mustangs are MAC contenders but I like their chances vs. Bridgewater.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Rose-Hulman. The Fightin’ Engineers took a 54-0 beating from the defending champs. A home game against Rhodes is a lot different than a road game against Mount Union.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Hobart. Hobart didn’t quit against Brockport in a lopsided affair. I think that spirit will lend to a victory vs. a decent Morrisville State team.
Ryan Carlson
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley.The Aggies should take care of business against Mass-Dartmouth but the Corsairs have a linebacker named Tony Slaughter and that is outstanding.

Which team will surprisingly be 2-0 after Saturday?

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Keith’s take: Lawrence. Rekindling a rivalry with Carleton, Vikings have a chance for first 2-0 start since, well, farther than our site goes back (1998).
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Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan. Poised for another after already taking down Thomas More.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Sewanee. Yes, this means this is a bit of an upset pick as well.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: SUNY-Maritime. The Privateers had a very late coaching change this summer, but appear to be picking up where they left off after a nine-win 2017 season.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: FDU-Florham. The Devils won 12 games in the prior seven seasons.  A 2-0 start will be a unique position for them.
Ryan Carlson
Ryan’s take: Macalester. 

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

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ATN Podcast 186: Blowing it all out

OK, yes, this second round of the playoffs was bad, in an epic way. No doubt. How bad? We’ll talk about that, for sure. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything we can learn from this week’s postseason games, because we definitely got a better look at some teams, even if there are a couple of teams advancing that haven’t yet been playoff tested.

This week, Fanraise is the sponsor of the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. Find out more at Thefanraise.com.

Pat and Keith hand out game balls, look at each second-round game, and look at the upcoming quarterfinal matchups in this week’s D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast.  

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football. 

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device. 
Frostburg State athletics photo; UW-Oshkosh photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com; turf by Scott Pierson, d3photography.com
You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast
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Quick Hits’ take on second-round scores

After an entertaining, but difficult-to-predict first round, our crew is back to give it another shot. So, we look at all eight second-round games and predict the final score. Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their crack at it this week and every week from here to Salem.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

UW-Oshkosh bracket
Keith’s take:  UW-Oshkosh 35, North Central 31
Ryan’s take: North Central 24, UW-Oshkosh 23
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 21, North Central 13
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, North Central 20
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, North Central 14
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 27, North Central 13
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 82%.
Consensus: A competitive, low-scoring game, but generally with the home team on top.
Keith’s take:  Wartburg 28, Trine 27
Ryan’s take: Wartburg 31, Trine 27
Pat’s take: Wartburg 35, Trine 24
Adam’s take: Trine 38, Wartburg 30
Frank’s take: Trine 30, Wartburg 27
Greg’s take: Trine 36, Wartburg 35
Hansen odds to advance: Wartburg, 51%
Consensus:
Points will be scored. Someone will win. Even the Wartburg grad’s algorithm has a toss-up.
Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take:  Mount Union 35, Case 14
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 41, Case 14
Pat’s take: Mount Union 42, Case 17
Adam’s take: Mount Union 38, Case 17
Frank’s take: Mount Union 37, Case 10
Greg’s take: Mount Union 49, Case 10
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 94%.
Consensus:
Case will score two or three times.
Keith’s take:  Frostburg State 31, W&J 29
Ryan’s take: Frostburg State 34, W&J 17
Pat’s take: Frostburg State 21, W&J 17
Adam’s take: Frostburg State 27, W&J 24
Frank’s take: Frostburg State 27, W&J 20
Greg’s take: Frostburg State 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 56%.
Consensus: Quiet confidence in Frostburg State, with most by seven or fewer points.
Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 27, Linfield 17
Ryan’s take: UMHB 23, Linfield 14
Pat’s take: UMHB 20, Linfield 10
Adam’s take: UMHB 31, Linfield 24
Frank’s take: UMHB 24, Linfield 10
Greg’s take: UMHB 24, Linfield 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 82%.
Consensus:
The defending champs, in a generally low-scoring game.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 34, Berry 14
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 38, Berry 17
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 42, Berry 20
Adam’s take: St. Thomas 47, Berry 20
Frank’s take: St. Thomas 41, Berry 27
Greg’s take: St. Thomas 34, Berry 17
Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, 99+%.
Consensus:
St. Thomas, although Berry could score some points.
Delaware Valley bracket
Keith’s take:  Delaware Valley 22, Husson 9
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Husson 10
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 24, Husson 15
Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 35, Husson 14
Frank’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Husson 17
Greg’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Husson 14
Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 88%.
Consensus:
Delaware Valley, although it could be close.
Keith’s take:  Brockport 28, Wesley 17
Ryan’s take: Brockport 27, Wesley 24
Pat’s take: Brockport 31, Wesley 27
Adam’s take: Wesley 42, Brockport 38
Frank’s take: Brockport 28, Wesley 27
Greg’s take: Wesley 28, Brockport 27
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 67%.
Consensus:
Not exactly unanimous.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the second round.