Triple Take: Forecasting Round 3

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Field covered, yes, but also bitterly cold. Saturday’s forecasted high in the Twin Cities is zero degrees.
@bethelroyals Instagram photo

Because we’re down to just four games, Pat, Keith and Ryan are doing more than just predicting the winners and the scores – they’re also offering a deeper look at their thought processes and why they’re making the picks they’re making.

Take a peek at the picks and the write-ups below, and then please take a moment and leave your own score predictions in the comments below. Or you can reach out to us on Twitter at @d3football.com, @D3Keith or @NewsTipps.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 33, Wesley 20. Even in Wesley’s strongest years, Mount has bested the Wolverines on the football field. I was, admittedly, shaky on the caliber of this Wesley team going into the postseason, and while I’ve also had some questions about the Purple Raiders, they haven’t been as significant as those about Wesley. To keep it close, the Wolverines are going to have to do something they haven’t really done yet in the playoffs: find success with BOTH the run game and the passing game. A team can’t be one-dimensional taking the field against the Purple Raiders, which ratchets up the pressure on quarterback Joe Callahan and the running backs. They’ll be facing Mount Union’s defense, which is younger than normal but clearly potent and eager to replicate past success.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 35, Wesley 21. In a departure from the regular season, I’ll be the concise one. Neither of these teams would beat the great Purple Raider or Wolverine teams that clashed previously, but that’s irrelevant on Saturday. Wesley’s got the intangibles and should be able to play loose, but QB Kevin Burke has a O-line that should keep him mostly clean against the Wolverines relentless rush. Meantime, DL Tom Lally was a problem for Wittenberg and could be for Wesley as well.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 45, Wesley 21. Just last week, it seems, Mount Union is beginning to come into its own. Wesley has been up and down … or perhaps really far up and just plain up, this year, but I don’t get the impression they are peaking at the right time, while Mount Union is. Jamar Baynard won’t have nearly the amount of room to run this week as he did against Ithaca and the young Wesley offensive line will struggle. The way Wesley has used Jeremiah Howe the past couple of weeks gives some reason for optimism that Wesley could put a few points on the board, at least early, but Mount Union is too versatile on offense now to be slowed.

Ryan’s take: North Central 45, Bethel 14. These two teams have combined for 219 points in the first two rounds, meaning they have averaged nearly 55 points a game. They have been scoring machines, and they were able to put up the numbers against some good competition. This should be the year that the Cardinals break into the national semifinals, something they’ve been predicted to do in recent years before falling just short. And I would have made that pick no matter the status of Bethel’s quarterback (though my score prediction would have changed).
Keith’s take: North Central 34, Bethel 28. For me, this is a departure from the final ballot I cast for the top 25 and the Surprises and Disappointments column. The quarterback issue for Bethel is one thing, but I also think NCC’s offensive run-pass balance and tempo will make it tough to keep off the scoreboard. I’ve fallen into the Cardinals-are-going-to-the-semifinals trap before, but this time they seem plenty tested along the way. I expect this to rival Linfield-UWW as the game of the day.
Pat’s take: North Central 27, Bethel 20. North Central is going to push the tempo on Bethel. I expect Bethel will be able to handle it well enough, however, and I expected the conditions to slow things down, especially the run game. That won’t keep North Central off the board, though. Now, on the opposite side, I have some confidence in Tom Keefe running the offense if Erik Peterson can’t go. I don’t know that that will be enough to get the job done, and if everyone can run their routes and catch passes in the zero-degree temperatures expected Saturday in the Twin Cities. Both teams are going to leave some point on the field (including a PAT in my score projection). I did not project any runbacks of blocked PATs, however, regardless of how many points they count for this week.

Ryan’s take: Linfield 21, UW-Whitewater 13. I imagine that some people’s confidence in Linfield was shaken after trailing as much as 21-3 in the second quarter against Hampden-Sydney last week. But a strange thing came over me. As close as I had been over the years to the H-SC program and as happy as I am to see the Tigers having postseason success, the first thought that came over me was: “That lead isn’t big enough to protect.” We’ve seen this year how Linfield can pour it on after the break -– like against Pacific or Pacific Lutheran in the regular season. When it’s needed, it happens. And that’s my takeaway from Linfield, a team that finds a way to make its own success. Their opponent, UW-Whitewater, is a team that has impressed me –- and won me over in many ways. I think this will be a game dominated by defenses (Linfield had six defenders that were first-team All-NWC and 11 total on the All-Conference team; Whitewater had five first-teamers and 10 total). The team that is able to find some offense or have a breakout play or two will win this matchup.
Keith’s take: Linfield 17, UW-Whitewater 14. I struggled with this one. Linfield was loaded to start the year, but at some point injuries might catch up with them. Both teams have had half-game lapses in the playoffs but have been otherwise outstanding. It’s expected to be between 12 and 18 degrees in Whitewater on Saturday, and The Perk is one of the true home-field advantages in D-III. Still, I think Linfield is due to catch a break in a huge game. QB Matt Behrendt has a 32-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, and the Warhawks have only six lost fumbles all year, but Linfield has 20 interceptions and 32 takeaways in 11 games. If they stay on average, three turnovers a game, they can squeak out a road win in the best game of the playoffs.
Pat’s take: Linfield 17, UW-Whitewater 15. I have some concerns about UW-Whitewater putting enough points on the board. Heck, I have some concerns about Linfield doing so. I’m torn between wondering if the Whitewater defense can hold Linfield to fewer points than Hampden-Sydney did and wondering if Josh Yoder got the interceptions out of his system. This is the big toss-up of the field, and I’m sticking with the pick I made at the beginning of the playoffs.

Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, St. John Fisher 13. All season, Fisher has been able to beat good and great teams that it’s encountered. But UMHB is different; it’s elite. Defensively intimidating; offensively unslowable. The Louisiana College game aside, the Crusaders have destroyed their opposition this fall. And they’ve held both playoff opponents to single digits on the scoreboard. Fisher has had a great run, beating a Top 10 team and surprising me and countless others with that performance. The team is a testament to the value of bringing two-loss teams into the Pool C fold, and that commands respect. But this will be Mary Hardin-Baylor’s game.
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 40, St. John Fisher 10.  There comes a point in every great D-III season where grit will only get you so far. The Cardinals have reached that point, and their opponent is one regarded by some as the best team in the tournament. Wind and freezing rain is expected in Belton, but instead of favoring the team from upstate New York, it helps UMHB. Behind QB Tyler Fenti, SJFC has thrown the ball well. That might be their best option, even in bad weather, as the Cru (63 y/g, four rush TDs allowed all season) is built to stop the run. Six defenders have double-digit tackles for losses, and and Fisher only averages 3.6 yards per carry this season — 4.4 by top back Cody Miller — anyway. Meantime, Cru RB Elijah Hudson, who has missed three games this season, appeared at full strength last week, with 23 carries for 136 yards against Rowan.
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, St. John Fisher 14. This is where the road ends. Again, it’s been a good run for St. John Fisher, but this is likely the end of the line. One thing that I worry about for UMHB, though, is that I feel like a good part of the Cru’s home success this year has been part of the momentum from the home crowd, and 2,500 fans are not as big a boost as, say, 9,300 or even 5,000. Playoff crowds are just smaller — they always are. But that’s not going to have an impact this week, and I don’t think UMHB will have to leave the Cruthedral until the Stagg Bowl, should they advance that far.

55 thoughts on “Triple Take: Forecasting Round 3”

  2. Wow. All three guys are picking Linfield over Whitewater? I have a feeling the UWW defense will have something to say about that. In a very big, dominating way setting up a titanic clash in Texas next week.
    UWW 17
    Linfield 13

    Weather in Minnesota is likely to hold NCC down some, plus a very solid Bethel defense. However I would have had NCC as the favorite over a healthy Bethel, even more so without their QB. This is setting up a lot like the Bethel team that came to Mount years ago without their play making QB. It wasn’t pretty that day to be a Royal. Don’t expect this one to end differently either.

    NCC 31
    Bethel 20

    SJF has proven they deserved their Pool C bid in beating JCU (with a slight assist from Mother Nature) and smacking Hobart around, but MHB is on a whole different level. A level they haven’t seen in a few years. IMHO, MHB should be considered the favorite in the whole tournament given the #’s they returned from 2012. SJF plays hard, but too much speed from MHB and the Cru wins it going away.

    MHB 45
    SJF 17

    The 2013 version of Mount might not be same caliber of the some previous Mount teams, especially on defense, but this is still a very good D3 team led by an absolute stud at QB. Wesley has had a nice playoff run, but was fortunate to have beaten Johns Hopkins and hardly dominated Ithaca. Wesley will score some points, but it won’t be near enough. Only way this game is close is if Mount gets sloppy with the ball (as they occasionally have) and turns it over multiple times like they did against WJ.

    Mount 48
    Wesley 21

  3. HSCoach — I find it interesting that your “UWW defense will have something to say about that. In a very big, dominating way” is only predicting four to eight points less than the rest of us are. 🙂

  4. Upset: “A game or contest in which the favorite is defeated.”

    Folks, I think there will be at least one of these this weekend and I won’t be surprised if there are two. I like Bethel’s and Whitewater’s chances at home. Those visiting teams have both got to play their A games to win.

    I am really surprised that none of the prognosticators chose either one of the possible upsets.

    Go Bethel!

  5. MU 35 WC 14
    UWW 28 LC 27
    NC 35 BU 24
    UMHB 42 SJF 10

    I’ve waited all year for another fair shot to the Stagg, and this year i’m predicting Mount and Cru Dec. 20 at 7pm.

  7. I believe it was Pat who stated that the crowd at UMHB may not be what it was, and I can concur, when he was here for the opening. It has not been that way since, nor did we really expect it to be, but the lackluster showing of fans really makes me frustrated. The town usually comes out to support, but with the weather the way it is, that will certainly knock it down. I hope the margin of victory is a no doubter, but it could very well be close.

  8. My picks

    Mary hardin-baylor 35 st john fisher 14

    Bethel 27 north central 21

    Linfield 31 uw-whitewater 28

    Mount union 38 wesley 24

  9. I’m surprised at some of the margin of victories being predicted. I’m sticking with my bracket even though I’m feeling shakey based on the commentary above:

    MUC over Wesly
    Bethel over NCU
    Linfield over UWW
    SJF over MHB

    SJF is the team I root for and will always pick them, I hope the predicted socres from a results and margin of victory don’t hold though. SJF 24 MHB 21.

  10. We chose two No. 1 seeds to get knocked out Art. What more do you want?

    UW-W might win, but no way Linfield hangs 31 on em.

    HS, solid picks, I appreciate the full reasoning. We picked virtually the same score so I don’t think we see it much differently.

    Glad to see people leaving their own picks.

  11. I’ll go with my original bracket picks, even though I now think NC will defeat Bethel due to the Royals’ QB being out.

    MUC 30 Wesley 20

    UWW 24 Linfield 13 (If it’s the beginning of the year I would have had Linfield but way too many key injuries now)

    Bethel 28 NC 27 (Don’t believe this anymore but must go with original bracket)

    UMHB (Whatever they feel like scoring) SJF (Whatever UMHB feels like giving up)

  12. Keith, Yeah, I know that’s true on paper, but all of the faithful out here in D3 land are well aware of the weekly rankings and their accuracy. I stand by my comment (and agreement with Pat’s comment) that it is really odd that none of you guys picked one of the two games as a possible upset – by D3 standards. I really hope that one or both of these underdogs takes down what appears to be the higher ranked (by the D3 poll) team.I really think it would be good for everyone to not see everything so predictable.

  13. I think the reasoning for every pick makes sense. Hard to knock any of them. I believe UW-W is being underestimated, but it’s understandable. With the way they play, their true strength isn’t reflected in a box score. And they have some rep to get back after last year. That is their mission between now and December 20. My picks:

    Mount Union 48
    Wesley 20

    This might be a Mount team that the peak of Wesley teams may have been able to beat. Both these teams will probably be better next year. Mount is hitting their stride in a big way right now.

    Bethel 27
    NCC 24

    This is a gut feeling. NCC has not faced adversity in a game all year. You’d think that would have me on the NCC train. Bethel strikes me as a team with a lot of pride. Frozen field, at Bethel, team rallying behind a senior back up QB, overlooked #1 seed. I believe NCC should be the favorite. Something inside tells me Bethel is going to win.

    UWW 23
    Linfield 13

    UW-W’s defense will not only slow down the Cats in a big way, they will take the ball away, giving UW-W’s offense a short field on which to operate. I’m expecting this to be very close with UW-W dominating the wounded, but game Cats in the fourth quarter.

    UMHB 31
    SJF 13

    I think Fisher’s defense may hold up a bit better than people expect, but in the end UMHB has a little too much of everything for the Cardinals.

  14. The Cru is in for an unusual weather event [26 degrees with 15mh north winds]- defense is the best ever [16 years history] – hope that is enough [the run will be important].

    UMHB 21 SJF 7
    UWW 24 Linfield 21
    MU 35 Wesley 7
    NC 28 Bethel 14

    GO CRU

  15. My thoughts/predictions…….

    UWW – 21
    Linfield – 10

    All of our esteemed prognosticators are picking a fairly low-scoring game, and I believe the weather and defenses will dictate that outcome. However, Linfield hasn’t played a defense like UWW all year, nor have they played in that kind of weather. UWW beats up Linfield at the Perk.

    MHB – 28
    SJF – 21

    I think SJF’s battle-tested defense will really step up their game tomorrow, and the weather will definitely help. I think MHB has just a myriad of talent that will (just barely) overcome the weather, and SJF’s defense.

    NCC – 28
    Bethel – 27

    I think Bethel’s defense, and their diversity on offense will make this game a close, nail-biter type game. This one will go down to the wire, UNLESS, Bethel’s backup QB can’t rise to the occasion (which doesn’t seem likely).

    Mount – 42
    Wesley – 24

    Mount is hitting their stride, and their defense just needs to “do enough”, because there isn’t anyone that is stopping this Mount offense. With the advent of an extremely potent running game, Mount is reaching the unstoppable range.

  16. I believe UWW’s defense is stingy enough to force a couple Linfield turnovers which may result into UWW points.

    UWW 31- Linfield 23

  17. Chuckling at bleedpurple. You know that NCC just beat the #7 seed UWP last weekend? And then you say NCC hasn’t faced any adversity? When they were predicted to almost lose? 52-24, not even a close call. Bethel was hanging on a string last weekend and now they lost their starting QB (which I wish a speedy recovery for). Predict all you want, you’ll see the final score tomorrow afternoon. GO CARDS

  19. The comments about Linfield not seeing a D like WW hold no (white)water. They practice against a defence every bit as good if not better every week…

    I would like to see my Cats move on, but if they don’t get out of the gates quickly once again, ala Pacific and HS, a long day it may be for the Cats.

    With that said, I am confident our boys will get the TO’s and short fields tomorrow for the O to takes advantage. Play hard, no injuries… both sides.

    Linfield 35
    WW 18

  20. Every year we fill out our brackets, pick our favorites, sit in the heat and the cold watching our favorite sport. This weekend will be cold for each team. The team that is accustomed to taking care of the ball will win.

    UWW 27 Linfield 23
    Mount 35 Wesley 27
    UMHB 28 SJF 14
    NCC 28 Bethel 27

  21. This weekend could get interesting very early on!!!!
    Linfield 23 UWW. 21
    Bethel. 28. NCC. 17
    UMHB. 42. SJF. 20
    Wesley. 30. MU. 28

    Yea I love the wolverines and hope this is their year!! I quote a d lineman from three years ago for the wolverines…
    Wesley has not had a team with this much team effort…. Not just one guy can win a game it is a team… They will be ready and prepared execution will be the factor this time around and what better time than now…

    I realize the task having been there however I believe this is the best shot we have…. Wwhhhooooopppp!!!

  22. Pat- I’m not saying that being predicted to lose is adversity. Being an “underdog” in the quarterfinals is fine with NCC; they’re happy to be in this spot and want to go to Alliance next week. They’ve had their fair share of injuries, like any other team, and fill in the gaps and prepare each week for another good fight. “Adversity” is a broad, vague term that I used loosely.

  23. Kby22,

    I believe you were “chuckling” at me using the term. And I did not use it broadly. I specifically stated “NCC has not faced adversity IN A GAME all year.” And then you cited an example that, in your own words, was “not even a close call.” Exactly, no adversity faced in that game. I even acknowledged that NCC should probably be the favorite and I just had a gut instinct. But it’s all good, I’m always fine with making someone chuckle! 🙂

  24. In order of comfort (most to least), I am going with:

    UMHB. If Mount is not the best team in the tournament this year, UMHB is. They have certainly looked the part. A few trips to Wisconsin and Alliance suggest they are not going to be phased by the cold.

    UMU. If UMHB is not the best team in the tournament this year, UMU is. Wesley has had a respectable run, but I do not see any aspect of the team (offense, defense, special teams) where Wesley has a significant advantage. Wesley can make it a game if Mount gets particularly sloppy (and by game, I mean stay within 2 touchdowns).

    NCC, only because I think UMHB and UMU are going to be less challenged in their games. I am looking for NCC to take care of business, especially hearing that Bethel’s QB is out.

    WW. Homefield picked this one for me, but I am thinking it should be the best game this weekend, and would not be surprised at all if Linfield pulled this out.

  25. Hard to have adversity when your QB has thrown 39 td passes and only 1 interception on the season and has the highest qb efficiency in the nation. Biggest factor in this game is the weather and the dirt field…bad weather and a bad field will help even the playing field for Bethel. NC hasn’t played on a dirt field all year(or natural grass). I’m sure the condition of this field last week is probably a big reason Bethel’s QB separated his shoulder. It’s probably like getting tackled in the parking lot…

  26. Well boys, I waited till the last minute to make my picks. I gotta say it’s funny to read the homer picks (as the known anti-homer) with a half-hearted nod to the other team just in case. It’s cute.

    UWW 17 Linfield 7 – The Hawks are for real. Linfield trips up every year. Last week, they stumbled over a rock. And this week they get hit with a boulder. I feel like I’m being too conservative with the 10 point spread.

    NCC 42 – Bethel 14 Every year it’s the big 3 and a wildcard. NCC is that wildcard this year. This team is nasty. Even with their starter I don’t think Bethel wins. Maybe more underrated than UWW cuz their offense is much better. Don’t want to see NCC in Alliance next week, especially in bad weather.

    CRU 126 – SJF – 0 I don’t care what the temperature is, it’s hot in Texas because the CRU are on fire. This team has a chip on it’s shoulder and they get the weakest team left. Maybe SJF can score the frequent miles from the NCAA because that’s about all the scoring they’ll do. I can’t pick a real score to this game because it’s really up to when the CRU take their foot off the throat. 30+ point message sent tomorrow

    And last, be not least UMU ? – Wesley ? I’m not going to pick this game after all. I’m pretty good at jinxing visiting teams by picking them to finally breakthrough in Alliance. But frankly, I don’t see it. Nothing about Wesley is scary this time. It’s not that I don’t think they can win. If the Raiders play like they did against W&J, Wesley leaves Alliance with a double-digit win. I just can’t find something to point to and say that’s where they are better. And Mount seems to be focused in. I think the weather plays a huge factor, as it usually does in football. But I think it grounds Burke and the Mount passing game a bit, which has been rolling. We received quite a bit of snow this afternoon in a short time, but it’s letting up. I’m afraid that Mount could revert to it’s sloppy ways but both teams may have trouble holding into it. This game will be close, and the lower the score, the more it will favor Wesley. The last two Mount games I’ve attended came down to the last minute, and I’ll be in the house.

    I really hope it plays out this way. I want to see the CRU’s offense vs. UWW D next week. That game would be worth traveling for. NCC vs. Mount has all the making for a game where whoever has it last wins.

    If my phone or fingers don’t freeze off I’ll be tweeting from the UMU game tomorrow, you can follow me @douglasbowers

  27. My picks
    Mount 42 Wesley 17
    North Central 31 Bethel 28
    Linfield 20 Whitewater 17
    Mary Hardin Baylor 42 St. John Fisher 14

  28. Mount Big
    UWW. Close
    Bethel. Gets smashed
    UMHB. Big

    Great Stagg. Mount wins on another last minute drive by 3

  32. 31-0 Mount. 1:00 to go in 1st qtr

    Someone might want to see if they sent the correct team??? Maybe this is the Freshman Team?

  33. Looks like Wesley is settling down. Problem is, by the time they blinked, they were down 31-0. Can Wesley start making up ground?

  40. And just like that it is 62-51. Reflective of Mount’s season, there are points and yards to be had _against this secondary_ (no team has really consistently solved the Run-D). Also, Mount will look bad on offense and defense at times (they gave up another 3rd quarter 3-score or better lead), but they have been able to win track meets due to one key play or another going their way.

    All credit and MAD RESPECT to Wesley for continuing to fight. Most teams that spot Mount 31 points in the first quarter are trying to get on the bus and go home at halftime.

  42. I would NOT want to be in the secondary meeting for the Raiders on Monday.

    GG Wesley Wolverines in a classic I did not think was coming. Posted 59 points. 8(!) touchdown passes. 633(!!) yards passing. IN Alliance.

    Is this a blueprint for other teams? Just abandon the run entirely (how many rushes were called runs in the second half) and pick on the secondary? 2 yards rushing, but one of the closest games Mount has played all year, definitely suggests this might be a sound strategy.

  44. Three straight 3rd quarters drives for Wesley were just all dink/screen passes and get the guy it space. It was a nice halftime adjustment. Can’t stop the pass rush so they just used it against Mount.

    Would have like to see this game with a better group of officials. Long huddles about calls, bunch of picked up flags. Two phantom tackles. They looked clueless

  45. raidertweets- Isn’t that what Wesley was supposed to do? Find a weakness and adjust? It was an awesome game to follow play-by-play!

    Also, for those with past playoff experience, what will be the criteria (a rough guess) for hosting the UWW/UMHB game? I’m curious to know how NCAA decided this.

  46. kby22 – Yes, that’s why I was giving the coaches props. It was a great job. They were dead. Fighting with each other on the sideline, and made it a game. I don’t think anyone expected that. Never seen anything like that. Callahan was terrible, staring down every WR in the first half. And then Superman came out of the locker room.

    Really disappointed by Mount Union yet again. Call me spoiled, but I expect better football then that after being up 31. This team has no killer instinct. Maybe they are just young, only one returner on offense. But the 3rd quarter play calling was horrible. It was like they kept trying to just run clock, and forgot Wesley was scoring. I’ve yet to see them play four complete quarters, and that’s going to kill them at some point. No offense to the Wolverines, but this UMU team is way more than 3 points better than Wesley, and yet that happened. Might have to wait till next year for that 12th ring because the next two teams are better.

    Oh and good luck covering that TE for Wesley, that kid is the size of a house!

  47. And as the dust settles on all this, it sure seems like these playoffs have produced the four best teams in the country. Both semi-final games are good match-ups. It seems like the national committee did a good job putting this field together, at least in terms of balancing out each side of the bracket.

  48. bleedpurple- Agreed. The best 4 teams have come out to the Semi’s. I was a little nervous about the bracket initially, however it ended up competitive on each wing. NCC is ready to travel to Alliance and UWW or MHB will have to mentally prepare to travel a good distance, too.

  49. The CRU pulled the game out but this was a closer game than the box score indicates. I felt like they stopped playing as hard which is why SJF kept it close. SJF stopped the CRU run game, credit SJF defensive line. The CRU will have to play better next week or they will lose.

    SJF had that one fan everyone dislikes. This guy basically yelled vulgar comments all day at the UMHB players, but most people began to just laugh at him because he is a nut job.

    Very disappointed that the fan base failed to show up, less than 1,000 fans showed, pitiful. Hopefully, if we get the home game next week the fans will appear. I noticed UWW had less than a 1,000 fans, Bethel had over 2,000 and MU over 1,200. True fans show regardless the weather conditions.

    UMHB QB got injured, anyone know how bad or if he will return next week?

  50. Wesley hung 59 on MU, unbelievable. Great job Wesley, nobody gave you a chance, including me. Wesley’s playoff team is not the same team that UMHB destroyed in September.

    Someone told me UMHB tried to schedule MU in regular season but MU declined. Anyone know if this is true?

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