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Nov/13

29

Triple Take: Score predictions for Round 2


Two-thirds of our Triple Take crew will be calling the Wesley-Ithaca game on Saturday.
Wesley athletics photo

Half the field is now gone after an exciting Round 1 of the playoffs. Teams that had Cinderella seasons – Gallaudet and John Carroll among them – and other squads will now have to watch the remaining four weeks of Division III football away from the sidelines.

All four of the top seeds survived the first round, and three of the four seeds that were likely the No. 2 seeds also advanced.

This week, Pat, Keith and Ryan again give you the game-by-game score predictions.These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

We invite you to leave your own score predictions in the comments below, or reach out to us on Twitter.

MOUNT UNION BRACKET
Ryan’s take:
Mount Union 41, Wittenberg 34
Keith’s take: Mount Union 30, Wittenberg 20
Pat’s take: Mount Union 42, Wittenberg 24
Consensus: Mount Union, perhaps a close game.

Ryan’s take: Wesley 35, Ithaca 17
Keith’s take: Wesley 24, Ithaca 16
Pat’s take: Wesley 35, Ithaca 10
Consensus: Wesley, perhaps comfortably.

BETHEL BRACKET
Ryan’s take:
Bethel 34, Wartburg 14
Keith’s take: Bethel 24, Wartburg 17
Pat’s take: Bethel 45, Wartburg 17
Consensus: Bethel, comfortably.

Ryan’s take: North Central 28, UW-Platteville 24
Keith’s take: North Central 35, UW-Platteville 33
Pat’s take: North Central 35, UW-Platteville 30
Consensus: North Central in a tight game. Although none of us picked Platteville to win, since everyone thinks it will be a one-score game or less, nobody is ruling Platteville out.

UW-WHITEWATER BRACKET
Ryan’s take:
UW-Whitewater 31, Franklin 21
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Franklin 14
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, Franklin 17
Consensus: UW-Whitewater.

Ryan’s take: Linfield 49, Hampden-Sydney 20
Keith’s take: Linfield 51, Hampden-Sydney 21
Pat’s take: Linfield 49, Hampden-Sydney 14
Consensus: Linfield, comfortably.

MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
Ryan’s take:
Mary Hardin-Baylor 45, Rowan 13
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Rowan 0
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 51, Rowan 9
Consensus: UMHB, comfortably.

Ryan’s take: St. John Fisher 27, Hobart 24
Keith’s take: St. John Fisher 21, Hobart 16
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 31, Hobart 28
Consensus: St. John Fisher in a tight game. Similar to the North Central/Platteville game, this low margin suggests nobody is ruling Hobart out.

Feel free to add your score predictions for all of the games below!

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27 comments

  • Author comment by edstone · November 29, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Guys;

    I’m curious about the Hobart – St John Fisher pick; since Hobart is the higher ranked team, and possibly the higher seed, why pick SJF? I realize you’ve qualified it as a close contest, yet what’s behind favoring the under dog?

    Thanks!

  • Author comment by rc226 · November 29, 2013 at 12:33 pm

    So I assume by the UMHB-Rowan scores that you think the Crusaders can finally stop Wit Marcelin?

    Also, Rowan’s defense has only allowed 20 points in three games this year (1 of which was in garbage time vs. TCNJ and they only allowed 7 to DelVal before the fourth quarter). They’re also 25th against the run and have allowed a 100-yard rusher just once. That includes limiting Van Alstyne to 63 yards, Pena to 97, and Walsh to 42.

    The formula that keeps any team in any game is a strong defense and a strong running game. Rowan has both. I think you’re underestimating Rowan’s chances of keeping it a close game.

    Your thoughts?

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 29, 2013 at 12:40 pm

    Rc226 — thanks for the feedback. I am the high picker on that game so here’s my thoughts:

    Let’s look at the opposite side of the equation: UMHB has not been held under 31 points in any game this season. The Cru scored 34 points vs. Kean where Rowan scored just seven and they crused Wesley where Rowan barely beat them. (Wesley got to the Rowan 8 on a drive that would have tied the game in the final minute.)

    That’s the thinking behind my high pick.

  • Author comment by timp · November 29, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    Mt Union 45 Wittenberg 38
    Wesley 28 Itaca 20
    Bethel 28 Wartburg 14
    North Central 24 UW-Platteville 17
    UW-Whitewater 38 Franklin 14
    Linfield 63 Hampden-Sydney 17
    Mary Hardin-Baylor 38 Rowan 21
    Hobart 28 St John Fisher 17

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 29, 2013 at 12:55 pm

    Thanks for making picks! Seems like a consensus kind of week, which is unusual for the second round. There are lots of good games, just all with established favorites.

  • Author comment by timp · November 29, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    Went against you fellas on the Hobart game. Ithaca is the correct spelling of course. I was tempted to pick Wittenberg in an upset, but Mt Union’s past and program make them almost impossible to pick against at home..and almost anywhere else.

    I agree with you Pat. It seems like the top teams are the best. Most of them are at home which never hurts. I’m with you guys on 7 of the 8. SJF is playing great and capable. However, I like Hobart at home and to not turn it over like crazy like John Carroll did. Weather is a little better in the eastern US this week. It is 10-15 degrees warmer and there should be less wind. That factored into my Witt vs Mount high score.

  • Author comment by wolverinepride · November 29, 2013 at 4:32 pm

    Upset alert… Wittenberg 34. Mt Union 30
    4th quarter comeback yet again Wesley 38 Ithaca 31
    Complete control Bethel 42 Wartburg 17
    Defensive battle N. Central 17 UW Platteville 14
    Surprisingly close one UW Whitewater 31 Franklin 29
    The blowout Linfield 59 Hampden Sydney 13
    Long flight home UMHB 42 Rowan 28
    OT thriller SJF 31 Hobart 28
    Let me know what you think!

  • Author comment by middlerelief · November 29, 2013 at 4:48 pm

    I am of the mind that all top seeds with exception of Bethel could be in store for an upset. . .

    Wittenberg Over MUC
    Ithaca Over Wesley
    Bethel Over Wartburg
    US Platteville over North Central
    Franklin Over UWW
    Linfield Over Hampden Sydney
    UMHB over Rowan but surprisingly close
    SJF in a huge blow out win of Hobart 31-7 or by 20 or so points.

  • Author comment by middlerelief · November 29, 2013 at 4:58 pm

    To Edstone on the Hobart / SJF game. Hobart is a very impressive 22-1 the last two seasons and counting. And the last time these two squared of Hobart smacked SJF around pretty good at Fisher’s home field back in 2011. That said, there may be a perception that the competition that Hobart has faced this season, and perhaps last season might not be at the same level as the other highly ranked teams. I’m not saying Liberty League is a pushover conference, but it is not viewed as competitive as some of the other conferences that challenge the conference winners such – MIAC, WIAC or perhaps more regionally relevant like E8 or NJAC.

  • Author comment by timp · November 29, 2013 at 6:54 pm

    Wow. 2 picks of Wittenberg over Mt Union and I thought long and hard about it. Mt Union seems to answer every challenge. Wittenberg is an experienced playoff team. They won at Heidleberg last year before losing at Hobart. They have almost all of their key guys back.

    I seem to be the only guy who thinks Whitewater rolls over Franklin. Franklin seems to be not playing as well as they did early on in those close losses. However, those games show what their upside is.

    Hobart is hard to guage, but I think they’ll handle SJF by over a TD. Great picks by all. It would appear there should be some excellent ballgames tommorow other than perhaps a couple. Nobody has Bethel, Mary Hardin-Baylor or Linfield losing. A couple of Wartburg hanging. Enjoy the games.

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 29, 2013 at 7:22 pm

    Hobart is indeed 22-1 the past two seasons. But it’s only one win that got them where they are ranked today, and that’s the second-round win vs. Wittenberg last season.

  • Author comment by middlerelief · November 29, 2013 at 7:46 pm

    timp – my call of Wittenberg over MUC is on two fronts: 1) is a combination of both wishful thinking and just tiring of the same teams in the finals and 2) MUC has not rolled teams the way they have in prior seasons. When facing tougher teams – Franklin, JCU, and Heidelberg they all more than tested them I think is fair to say. So, a strong program like Wittenberg may be the one challenger that is able to see it through the end this season anyway. But I do agree with you, good or at least interesting ballgames set for tomorrow.

  • Author comment by jaypick · November 29, 2013 at 8:30 pm

    Proud Hobart Aunt here. Tyre Coleman leading defense and Steven Webb leading offense. I believe we will have a sweet victory!

  • Author comment by art76 · November 29, 2013 at 9:34 pm

    Just two thoughts – the first is that I think Wittenberg will scare the Purple Raiders in some way – though not enough to pull out the win. The second is that I will be surprised if Bethel scores less than 6 times – they are on a roll – and it is more than just the opposition they have had of late.

    Go Royals!

  • Author comment by grantbethelmn · November 29, 2013 at 9:45 pm

    My picks:
    Mount Union 38 Wittenberg 28
    Wesley 27 Ithaca 14
    UW-Platteville 31 North Central 28
    Bethel 38 Wartburg 21
    UW-Whitewater 35 Franklin 21
    Linfield 49 Hampden-Sydney 13
    St. John Fisher 28 Hobart 27
    Mary Hardin-Baylor 42 Rowan 10

  • Author comment by taa20 · November 29, 2013 at 9:51 pm

    I like Mount, but it is going to be close, and an upset could happen if they continue to play sloppy. But, this is the same team that gave up 5 turnovers last week and still had a 20 point lead at some point in the second half. The problem with this Mount team all year is that they are either just not good enough to lay the knock-out when they have a team down or the opposition has closed the gap significantly (at one point they were up 23-7 on Franklin, 30-13 then 44-27 late on Heidelberg, 35-13 then 42-27 late on JCU, then 34-13 on Washington). Previous iterations get a stop and another score and end those games. This year, the secondary gives up a play, a very inopportune personal foul or a turnover and the other team is right back in it.

    Whitewater will not give Franklin hope, especially not knowing which Franklin will show up. Ditto for Bethel and UMHB (whom I hate to admit is the best looking team in the bracket this year, but could not displace the reigning champ that scored two big late season wins or UWW’s history).

    I am ignorant about most of the other teams beside those 4 (and even Bethel is a stretch). If the games are going to be close, upsets could be abound. Going to be a fun and very stressful 4 hours for me (OSU and Duke have rivalry games).

  • Author comment by grantbethelmn · November 30, 2013 at 8:49 am

    BU BU BU BU BU BU! GO BETHEL!!

  • Author comment by jlawrence01 · November 30, 2013 at 1:06 pm

    I have this feeling that North Central will win it all this year. In the games I have seen, they have looked more impressive than UW-Whitewater.

  • Author comment by grantbethelmn · November 30, 2013 at 4:28 pm

    I have to dissagree.. haha.. I just hope Bethel can keep toe to toe with north central. They do seem pretty potent

  • Author comment by GoCru · December 1, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    Rc226,

    Now I think you understand Pat’s logic on UMHB stopping Rowan. Total domination on both sides of the ball by the CRU.

  • Author comment by GoCru · December 1, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    I think the big sleeper is North Central. They are very good this year. After looking at their schedule, stats etc. they have a good chance to win it all.

  • Author comment by wolverinepride · December 1, 2013 at 8:19 pm

    Is anyone giving my boys from Wesley a chance this weekend in Alliance…. I’m biased so I am curious what you guys think! Just curious don’t crush my hopes too hard haha

  • Author comment by rc226 · December 1, 2013 at 8:48 pm

    Reminded me a lot of the Salisbury game last year in that the Profs defense struggled to bring down Hudson like they did Joe Benedetti. Also, I don’t think they were prepared for how fast UMHB is. One thing you can’t get a sense of on film is speed. It was unfortunate that their season had to end that way after a great year. The thing that kind of gets lost in that type of game is that Rowan wasn’t a bad team that didn’t deserve to be there, but that UMHB is just a step higher. Rowan only loses 6 starters and their kicker so they should have another great year in 2014. Hopefully, they can make a deeper run.

  • Author comment by raidertweets · December 1, 2013 at 11:30 pm

    I was nervous about Wesley the last time they came to Alliance, but this year I would say no Wolverine.

    I’ve been a bit down on the Raiders, and am FAR from a homer (which constantly gets me in trouble) but I think that scare from JCU (you can’t kick FGs in Alliance) woke this team up. Winning like the Raiders do has a way of making you sleep walk a bit during the season, and that seems to happen here every few years. Yes the defense isn’t lights out this year but the Kehres’ are the kings of adjustments in game. Wittenberg found that out last week, and I thought that would be a closer game. Witt came to play, but not for all 4. The UMU defense really turned it up.
    And let’s face it, just because they aren’t dominating as usual, they are still really good (which even I overlook constantly). Past success sometimes skews the view. Take away the past and this team is very impressive. At some point you still have to stop Kevin Burke. The kid is just a winner. There is no Cecil Shorts or Pierre Garcon on this team, but the WRs are really good. BJ Mitchell is trying to do his best impersonation of Nate Kmic, going over 1,000 yds in half a season as a freshman, and at 5’6″ is really hard to tackle as well.

    From the time the brackets came out I’ve been eyeing the North Central game. That’s the first one that has real attention for me. But Wesley has been here before so it’s not like they’ll be surprised by the atmosphere.

    I will say 3 times in my four years of covering this team I picked against them and they won it all. The one time I picked them they lost to UWW on Cecil’s fumble. I picked the CRU this year.

    It’s the other bracket that has all the teams I don’t want to see. TheCRU has been my pick for awhile now. After seeing what they did in Alliance, I don’t want to see them on a neutral site. I think they’re the horse to beat. UWW’s defense is nasty. And they can run it just enough to keep the Raiders offense on the sidelines. I think turnovers could be a big issue there for UMU. And like every year, I thought this would be Linfield’s breakout year. And again I’m wrong. I think it’s sad that they have to play a road game. I know the D3 poll has nothing to do with it but I believed they should be the home team. After last week, I don’t think it will matter. Great O vs Great D. I’ll take the defense in the cold.

    Would definitely think about traveling to the UWW-CRU game, I think that’s the game everyone wants to see this year, much like UMU-CRU last year.

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · December 1, 2013 at 11:42 pm

    The thing that kind of gets lost in that type of game is that Rowan wasn’t a bad team that didn’t deserve to be there, but that UMHB is just a step higher.

    RC226 — this is what we’ve been saying not only all season but for the past several years. There are different levels of competition and the elite six or seven teams are just on a different plane.

  • Author comment by raidertweets · December 2, 2013 at 12:03 am

    Great comment rc226, I don’t think most people realize the gap from the big schools until they see them up close with their school. I see people saying things like “oh, this team didn’t show up” when really, if you take out the big 4, they may be a great team. There is a reason these teams continue to be ranked high. And until you play them a few times you cannot adjust. Not saying they cannot be beaten, but it takes a great four quarters. People should watch two middle of the road teams play, then tune in to the Stagg Bowl.

    I had a reporter from W&J tell me on the sideline a few years ago to get ready to see history, UMU wasn’t that good “this year” and they were going to battle. It was 35-0 as he was leaving at the start of the 2nd quarter.

  • Author comment by sader · December 4, 2013 at 4:17 am

    I would love to see UMHB and MU rematch for Stagg this year on neutral ground after witnessing the Cru give MU a run for their money in their own house last year. Cru’s running back broke his arm at the end of the 3rd and their Defense allowed 34 points in the 4th giving MU a 13 point victory over the Cru. I believe that game should have been scheduled for Stagg last year, and beating the raiders in Alliance Stadium was the ultimate challenge for the Cru. This year the circumstances will be different along with the outcome. This year the Cru will not settle for anything less than a perfect season. I think we will all get a heavy dosage of the Cru’s potential this Sat as we welcome in the freezing rain and unfamiliar oppressors. UMHB 42 SJF 10 Can’t wait! Hope God keeps everyone safe.
    iliya

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