Bracket analysis, podcast

If you think this bracket is good … and I do, at least a little … you should’ve seen the first version that went out. It had one extra flight in it, and that made a world of difference.

Instead, we have business as usual. And I mean business.

I’m in between show No. 3 and No. 4. I’ll be on North Central’s radio station later, where I’ll probably get asked most of the same questions, which is fine, because it’s a different audience. But there are a lot of things on people’s minds.

We took a ton of questions on our post-selection analysis show. If you missed it, it’s below, and it will end up in your feed if you’re a podcast subscriber.

We also talked with Wheaton coach Mike Swider, Willamette coach Mark Speckman, Mount Union quarterback Greg Micheli and Washington and Jefferson coach Mike Sirianni. Plus, you’ll get an interesting insight into the bracket that did not make ESPNews.

Thanks to the more than a thousand people who listened to the show live, and to the 75 percent of our audience that stuck with us even as we went 45 minutes longer than we planned. But we got to everyone’s questions.

59 thoughts on “Bracket analysis, podcast

  1. It was a great show. I listened to the whole thing. I couldn’t IM my question but I wished we had gotten a chance to have Keith ask Coach Swider about Randolph Macon Head coach Pedro Aruzza, whom swider recruited to wheaton and played 4 years for him, about his trip to alliance this weekend. Pedro went there as a player in 1995. It would have been a unique opportunity to mesh several worlds. Great job on the show and analysis Pat and Keith!

  2. It was indeed a very well done and informative show! Pat, both you and Keith did a great job breaking down matchups for the first round. Keith, I agree with you that you guys tend to “fawn over” Mount Union, but again you shared that they’ve earned it and clearly they have. I fully admit my bias as a Franklin fan, but I have to wonder why they get so very little “props” from you? I really think the matchup with Otterbein will be a great game, although the coverage would indicate that they (Otterbein) are already penciled in. Remember a couple of things: 1. Franklin barely lost (by 2 points) to North Central (this year’s #1 seed in the region) last year on the final play of the game in the first round after really dominating the game for 3 1/2 quarters. 2. Franklin has a win on the road over a DII team (Butler) this year and they (Butler) have had a pretty respectable season, including wins over Drake and Valporaiso. 3. The only common opponent that Franklin and Otterbein have this year is Baldwin Wallace…Otterbein beat them by two touchdowns, Franklin by one. 4. Chad Rupp, Franklin’s quarterback, has been a consistent DIII stat leader since his freshman year and this year became the all time touchdown pass leader in Franklin history, which has included a ton of very very good QBs. This team has gone 9-1 for the 3rd straight year and has won, I think, 17 straight conference games. Pat, I recall you saying on last years selection show that you thought they should have gotten in the first year they went 9-1, so I have to wonder why they get such little “pub”? Is it the HCAC as a conference?

  3. maybe i need a late pass, but after this weekend, i am beginning to think the whole the “region games” thing is a crock.

    if the brackets are done ala D1 NCAA hoops, don’t call regular season games in/out of region. it’s a joke. kaiser on ITH showed he barely knew most of the teams in the regions – let alone the specifics contained therein the NCAA handbook – and it would be better if the NCAA let pat and keith make the picks for the play-offs – they are infinitely more qualified.

    i have no issue with there being a “Mt Union” bracket. they are the best and deserve it, but please i can’t EVER refer to “regions” going forward – regular season or otherwise – b/c when it comes to earning a championship – it’s simply not true.

  4. Yeah, I don’t get why the LL people are so up in arms about it. It’s not four regional championships anymore. It’s much more of a national championship than it’s ever really been in Division III football, and this is just fine.

    This is a good thing, and, one selection aside, this committee is doing a good job.

    Grizfanbill: I think that’s because the list of teams not named Mount Union that have beaten the OAC runner-up in the playoffs is fairly small.

  5. Pat –

    With all due respect, especially given what you and the D3fb.com crew do for the sport BUT, the “LL people” is a gross generalization Pat.

    I don’t know any other conferences/leagues with their own talk show(s) actively interviewing the D3 chair and pointing out the discrepancies between what happens in the selections with what’s actually “stated in writing” in the NCAA handbook.

    You of all people should be grateful for this (LL) passion and interest from the D3 fan base – even if it doesn’t bow to the altar that is Mt Union Football.

  6. I heard one thing on the NEFC Selection, and that was the commitment to affirming the conference integrity. I understand Coach Kaiser to say that the Selection Committee valued the procedures that each conference had determined with respect to scheduling, etc. Of course, we need strong viable conferences with active constructive leadership by the college presidents. That is one of the ongoing efforts in the NCAA.

    It seems to me that the committee held to their position that they would honor conferences, even when faced with 9-1 Curry as a candidate for Pool C.

    The conferences are designed to provide solid frameworks of competition for student-athletes. I have met several presidents in the ASC, and their commitment is to provide an excellent experience for student-athletes. In the case of the ASC, that means being good stewards of the resources that we have for a full 10-game (football) 25-game (hoops) or 40-game season (baseball). Travel and missed classtime are financial and academic concern. I am sure it is no different anywhere else in D-III.

    If the presidents of the NEFC want to watch their budgets and support conference play, then that seems to be a decision with which the committee members understand, having shared the responsibility in their own institutions. The NEFC is not traveling 350 miles across the East Evaluation Region, from Boston to Rochester/Buffalo for a non-conference(non-division)/in-region game, when they can play one 60 miles away. Fortunately, this is not D-1, where the “athlete-student” gets class time subordinated to TV schedules for midweek games on ESPN.

    Thanks to all for the contribution of each to this interesting playoff discussion. I I believe that the sources that we have heard have made the process even more transparent.

    Pat and K-mack, I really enjoyed the podcast.

    (You, too, Eric Ren and Frank Rossi on “In the HuddLLe”.)

  7. It was a great show. I listened to the whole thing. I couldn’t IM my question but I wished we had gotten a chance to have Keith ask Coach Swider about Randolph Macon Head coach Pedro Aruzza, whom swider recruited to wheaton and played 4 years for him, about his trip to alliance this weekend. Pedro went there as a player in 1995. It would have been a unique opportunity to mesh several worlds. Great job on the show and analysis Pat and Keith!

    It did occur to me, but I guess at that point we were trying to stay on time for an hour show. I don’t know if my mic was up or not, but I was about to ask a second question, and that was it.

    In any

  8. Fair enough.

    Even if this “generalization” is not “gross” – the “LL people” have a valid point.

    If the point is truly a national championship, let’s clarify as such vs. give the impression to the fan base, implicit or implied, that “regional” games actually come into consideration from an NCAA stand point. They don’t. The committee – specifically the chair – has articulated as such.

    I agree with you that the committee did do a good job picking the field, but according to the actual rule book, they clearly didn’t follow the guidelines, so the best remedy is simply a updating of said guidelines to reflect the current reality of the game.

    This is not a question of bad or good, just updating to reflect the current status of the game to eliminate future confusion among informed fans/participants.

  9. grizfanbill,

    1. YES…. the Heartland Conference is not what it was even a year ago. It was a terrible year for the HCAC.
    2. comparing teams by scores with common opponents is very dangerous. Nobody should even have to tell you why this is.
    3. Franklin has gotten plenty of publicity during their “run of 9 win seasons” … The Grizz haven’t won a playoff game during this run of 9 win seasons …remember there’s 32 teams in the playoffs and 239 total that play Division III football. If you want more publicity, have your SID cooperate with the newspapers in Louisville or Indianapolis

  10. I don’t know any other conferences/leagues with their own talk show(s) actively interviewing the D3 chair and pointing out the discrepancies between what happens in the selections with what’s actually “stated in writing” in the NCAA handbook.

    I say this not having listened to the show, only seen the arguments on the board this week … I’m all for bringing the selection committee on air and grilling him. But there’s a difference between nitpicking and arguing with a purpose.

    What exactly is the beef with what’s stated in writing and the practical application? Is there some reason Mount Union should not have been the top seed in a bracket filled with East Region teams not worthy of a top seed themselves? What am I missing?

    In a different situation, an East team would be the No. 1 and there’s no need for another MUC move … so it doesn’t seem like it’s the process that’s broken, or even the interpretation of the handbook.

  11. The inclusion of Administrative Regions in the definition of “Regional Games” has expanded the options for non-conference play for Liberty League teams in NY and PA to include every Presidents AC team except Thomas More and Bethany and the Centennial Conference teams except JHU and McDaniel. For WPI, they pick up Wesley, JHU, McDaniel, Frostburg and Salisbury.

    Respectfully, I did not hear Dr Kaiser say that in-region games were not the basis of the decisions by the committee.

    I am interested in what wording needs to be added to the Handbook that accomplish what you desire. Thanks. 🙂

  12. I posted that before I read the remarks about regional games. Explain to me what the discrepancy is there. Is it related to seeding, selection of at large teams, No. 1 seeds, what?

    I’m not a big fan of the regional emphasis, but I understand why it’s in place. A) because it’s how D3 schools voted to do it. B) The travel costs in D3 associated with all sports, not just football, encourage the emphasis on region games and C) it makes sense for the regional subcommittees to each rank their own region because those are the areas the volunteers have the most experience with.

  13. This is more general, but since you mentioned it last …

    even if it doesn’t bow to the altar that is Mt Union Football.

    What’s with the Mount Union hate from the LL/E8? I know it’s not everyone, and it’s mostly been the past couple seasons.

    I get the idea of rooting against the favorite and going for the underdog. I get that Pat and I are perhaps quick to assume Mount Union is going to get to a certain round of the postseason without giving it much thought, but trust it’s because we’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends.

    What I don’t get about the snide comments about Mount Union — and as you all know, not only am I NOT a Mount Union guy, I should be rooting against them this week more than anyone — is that they are not like the Yankees or Cowboys, teams that are hateable because they are good, but also because of the way they do business.

    Mount Union does business the exact same way the majority of the rest of us do, just better. If anyone in D3 plays with a stacked deck, it’s the low-tuition state schools with 10,000 students in the WIAC and NJAC. And CNU.

    The thing about Mount Union, love them or hate them, is you have to respect them. They conduct themselves more or less with class, they play football in a way that deserves to be emulated, and at least within the program — fans might be an exception at times — they emphasize having respect for the opponent. They aren’t flawless or unbeatable, but they do about as good as job as one can expect within the Division III football framework.

    It’s the model program. If I bow at the altar, it’s because they earned it, fair and square. I would do the same for any other Division III program that accomplishes a fraction of what Mount Union has.

  14. I think you guys (pat, ralph, and keith) are missing the point. I can’t speak for all the “East” fans/alums, but context is extremely difficult to convey via written words vs face to face conversion, namely:

    we don’t “hate” MUC – we actually do respect them and wish our teams were more like them (ie. they are the standard now – and some teams like Union, IC, etc were the same 20 some years ago)

    we may be jealous, envious, etc, but from an outsider POV (esp. via written media – not saying it’s how you are guys are but how it can be interpreted w/o context) is that you kiss the *** of the current dynasty program for the benefit for your business (this is not a fault, but a reality and tougher “skin” as journalists should prepare you accordingly. Problem here is once again context, ie since it’s D3 it takes a more personal tone so when that gets called into question we react with a defensive posture).

    re the WIAC and CNU – it’s not even close:

    there are 100s, if not 200-300s of eastern (NE, NY, etc) schools with total cost of attendance over 35-40k annually. i’d be interested in seeing a similar list from the midwestern US. that’s not a fair statement and one that leads “east” fans into the “sour grapes” mode (although we’ve got no beef vs. the Oxy, CLU’s SCIAC and probably TX teams of the nation…)

    re: ralph’s comments that:

    The inclusion of Administrative Regions in the definition of “Regional Games” has expanded the options for non-conference play for Liberty League teams in NY and PA to include every Presidents AC team except Thomas More and Bethany and the Centennial Conference teams except JHU and McDaniel. For WPI, they pick up Wesley, JHU, McDaniel, Frostburg and Salisbury.

    I’d argue until now that only Pat, Keith and Ralph (and maybe a handful of VERY informed others) knew that fact.

    So it should not become a “surprise” to the crew here that the fan base is still learning the rules of the game.

    Have a heart and not be so judgmental of the group that’s driving the traffic and interest into the game and site you’ve so graciously provided.

    If anything, I’d say the opposite would be preferred, ie, to correct, but not get defensive (ie, easy for me to say since I haven’t been hawking d3football.com or dealing with crazed zealots for the past 9 years).

    not sure if this makes any sense, but i appreciate the format the opportunity to debate.

    i guess i really have become my voted moniker from the LL boards.

  15. I must have missed where they seeded the regions overall 1-4. I’m assuming the MUC and Willamette regions are #1 and #2 since they are on the top half of the bracket, and the North Central and Millsaps regions are #3 and #4 since they are on the bottom. Is this correct and where has it been noted?

  16. Saints FAN: I agree with you about the common opponent comparisons….it is a dangerous thing to use for initial analysis, but on a Selection Sunday afternoon, its about all we had to use as a guage. I also agree that with Mt. St. Joe not having a typically strong season, it does affect the HCAC overall perceived strength. That being said, Franklin has had some nice wins in that span (Wabash, Ohio Wesleyan, Butler, Mt. St. Joe twice, Baldwin Wallace, etc.) As far as the playoffs during the three 9-1 seasons, remember our first season at 9-1 we missed the playoffs as a Pool B or C selection, so in that time we have only played one playoff game (last year with North Central, the now famous last play of the game 44-42 loss). Finally I couldn’t agree more with you about our SID and cooperation with the Louisville and Indianapolis media outlets. I live in Louisville, and in spite of the Courier Journal being about as bad a newspaper as there is, we don’t get near the coverage here that Hanover or Centre enjoy and the comaparative distance away is not significant.

  17. grizfanbill,

    you would have only been eligible for Pool C. Thats for the “conference runner-ups” if you will. But yes, I do remember and thats my point. Out of those three years… you have one playoff game.. a loss.

    Pat’s crew gives “the rest of the field” plenty of publicity during the regular season… but you’ll notice the MUC’s, UW-WW’s and St. Johns getting theirs during the playoffs. I think it works well.

    Good luck with your SID… believe me, its not an isolated problem.

  18. Seems awful funny that two outright conference champs (Wartburg and St. John’s) have to travel to two WIAC schools. Whitewater could not even win their conference outright. Stevens Point lost to River Falls which was beaten by St. John’s. One has to wonder, one has to wonder.

  19. Not really — I mean, teams are seeded on their overall season numbers and both of them had better seasons than St. John’s and Wartburg.

  20. I love the rip off of the playmakers theme song.

    Anyway, you guys do a great job with this. It was refreshing to hear Pat on ESPN News saying if anyone were to knock off Mount Union in the East it would be Ithaca.

    I just hope it gets to that point. Which bracket do you think has the most depth?

  21. You mean the WIAC had less parity. The MIAC was 16-2 against non-conference foes. If the WIAC teams are that great why didn’t they move one of them.

  22. Now I am not very familiar with Wheaton at all, but the way that it sounded to me watching the ESPNews and reading the website that Wheaton is a sleeper in the bracket and (sounded like) a lock to beat Trine. My question is why? I understand that they were in a strong conference and they have been strong in the past, but why just assume that they are going to slide past Trine? Again completely understand that the MIAA has struggled in the playoffs for years, but it has been a long time since any MIAA team has looked as strong as Trine. Trine’s D has been extremely tough and they just have found ways to get things done. I believe that they may surprise some people come Saturday.

  23. Wheaton is 5-0 in 1st round games, has only ever been eliminated from the playoffs in Alliance v Mt Union and has beaten the MIAA in 13 of the last 14 games they have played. It’s not hard to figure why they may be a favorite.

    You sound a little like th MSJ folks in 2004. They had a defense ranked in the top 10 nationally, yielding only 220 yds a game and less than 50 yds on the ground. A runner w a 100 yds a game avg and a great qb. Wheaton was the CCIW pool C rep. The result? 31-7 wheaton. Wheaton had 500 yds offense including 230+ on the ground. MSJ had less than 200 yds offense. This Wheaton team is better than that one.

  24. D3forme,

    The Committee seede the top four seeds as follows: 1-MUC 2-Millsaps 3-Willamette 4-North Central.

    Dick Kaiser said this on the ITH show.

  25. USee

    I realize all of those stats, but Trine this season is plain and simple just better than there conference opponents. They did have some close games this season, but they are a young team. They have won 12 games in a row, and have not lost a home game since the 2006 season. They are have been good on the road, but they have been great at home since Coach Land arrived. I understand why Wheaton will be a tough matchup, but I don’t believe they should be a favorite (let alone a lock to win) at Trine.

  26. D3RS,

    I definitely don’t think they are a lock. I am only explaining why some (all outside of wheaton) may think Wheaton is a favorite. Those of us who know Wheaton certainly are glad we are playing at Trine instead of at Mt Union but we are experienced enough in playoff football to know if you are undefeated, you are good. Wheaton players and coaches will afford Trine all of the respect they have earned.

  27. What are the chances that some team in the East bracket can knock off Mount Union? Can an Ithaca or a Cortland do it?

  28. As nobody has brought it up yet, what do you think about North Central and Wheaton both gettting in, as well as North Central getting a bracket named for them. They have barely scraped out wins at times this year, and have lots of injuries. I like the CCIW just as much as the next guy but i can’t be sure that North Central can make it out of this bracket alive, and as for wheaton, i don’t think they have much of a chance either. The CCIW seems to be kinda like the Big Ten where teams constantly beat each other up so much that come playoff time nobody can be all that effective. Any opinions?

  29. “there are 100s, if not 200-300s of eastern (NE, NY, etc) schools with total cost of attendance over 35-40k annually. i’d be interested in seeing a similar list from the midwestern US. that’s not a fair statement and one that leads “east” fans into the “sour grapes” mode (although we’ve got no beef vs. the Oxy, CLU’s SCIAC and probably TX teams of the nation…)”

    —–

    Well … golly labart, those of us who got our schoolin’ in the Midwest just brought a cow and a chicken each semester and we got all that learnin’ for free.

    GMAFB, if you’re looking for a reason why the East can’t product a contender — since when??? — then keep looking.

    Carleton, for instance, was 50 seconds away from the field and costs there are pushing 50k (http://www.mnprivatecolleges.org). The average cost for a Minn. private college is over 35K and the MIAC schools are the state’s priciest.

    It’s also worth noting that between the LaCrosse titles in the mid-90s and Whitewater’s relatively recent rise, the WIAC didn’t have all that much success against the smaller privates in the West region.

    Indeed of the four non-MUC Stagg winners since 1996, three of them have been private schools with comp costs now of $35K or above. I’m sure that they’re all from the West is a mere coincidence. 🙂

    Please accept this lovely parting gift …

  30. Im not really sure. That’s why i posed that question. I noticed last week that Dominic Sulo didn’t have a rush for NC and Fanthorpe seemed to be quite beat up. Their defense is also a little banged up from the looks of the game. And they have had a few other injuries this year too. It seems like they have a knack for winning games one way or another, but will that be enough in the playoffs. Can they compete with otterbein/franklin winner, and what about if they do play wheaton again, or Trine. From the looks of things, I’m just somewhat skeptical about them. I almost think wheaton might have a better chance the second time around. Just my opinion, i haven’t seen any other teams but the conference teams.

  31. Can you say CORTACA JUG pt. 2??

    Having gone to the CORTACA JUG game for the second year as a fan because I previously played in four of them, winning three, I knew the Red Dragons were the favorite. However, the Bombers prevailed. Ithaca won the game on defense after the first half and capitalizing on Cortland’s mistakes in the red zone.

    Yet, the bracket has been made and I’m not one to look past one game for the next, but we are all licking our chops for another shot at the blue and white.

    GO C State!

  32. Keith,
    I would like to take an opportunity to ask a question I’ve long wondered about. In an earlier post you said:

    “Mount Union does business the exact same way the majority of the rest of us do, just better. If anyone in D3 plays with a stacked deck, it’s the low-tuition state schools with 10,000 students in the WIAC and NJAC. And CNU.”

    My question is this: Just how does the enrollment level of an institution “stack the deck”? My assumption is that none of these schools conduct a campus wide tryout to determine the members of the team. Virtually all the players are recruited. Therefore, why does it matter if the football team has 1,000 classmates or 10,000 classmates?

    Obviously the purple I bleed is Warhawk Purple, not Purple Raider purple. (Have you ever seen the work purple 4 times in one sentence before?). I am certainly open from learning from another point of view. But at this point, I can’t really see the size of the school being relevant to a “stacking the deck” discussion.

    I’ll tell you what would impress me. Play a game between Mount Union and UWW in which all recruited players are ineligible. Both teams are drawn from the remaining student body. If Mount wins that game, I will be impressed. (Please know that I am already more than impressed with Mount Union. This paragraph was a slightly tongue in cheek way of making a point. Although if Kehres coaches the Mt. roster, maybe they would win!!)

    Anyway, I digress. Keith, could you tell me your thoughts on why you believe a large enrollment is a factor in “stacking the deck” for a particular school?

    Thanks!

  33. C State FB06 ..be proud of C S its a great team…Mt Union is a good team and they know it…Ithaca looks forward to meeting the best of the East…the plan is Curry….Cortland….hello Mt. Union here we come…may the best team win

  34. I’d like to see Ithaca in Alliance again…good football team….one game at a time though…Cheering for the Otterbein Cardinals to go deep in the bracket…They have taken that spot this year that Capital has owned for the last few years as the OAC runner up and a very formidable football team…I think they were a little shaky with JC…coming off a big game that didnt go the way they hoped…could have put in a stronger end of season effort…but nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how far they go…whether they get to the semis remains to be seen…a number of very good football teams will have to go down for that to happen…but then again, im in the camp of people who thinks that capital, if not for muc, would have several staggs and maybe a title under their belts over the last few years…if otterbein brings that same hard nosed brand of football that cap has brought to the playoffs, and they very well could with their good D and their running game,watch out…

  35. K-Mack just doubled the enrollment at CNU! Thanks Keith! More student fees to support the Athletic Dept. 🙂

  36. pearlaker Says:
    November 17th, 2008 at 9:46 am
    You mean the WIAC had less parity. The MIAC was 16-2 against non-conference foes. If the WIAC teams are that great why didn’t they move one of them.

    pearlaker,

    I guess we will find out on Saturday. St. John’s gets to play the WIAC runner-up. If the 16-2 MIAC is so great. And if the WIAC isn’t “that great”, then I guess SJ got an easy draw and should breeze Saturday regardless of where the game is played. The best way for St. John’s to prove the seedings incorrect is to win on Saturday. I think I read that St. John’s has won 15 consecutive opening round games. UWW is very young, having only 6 seniors. Looks easy for the champion Johnnies against the 2nd place Warhawks. I guess we’ll find out a lot about MIAC and WIAC on Saturday.

  37. Just curious as to the thought of the Randolf Macon faithful. This will be there first journey to meet “The Machine.” I wish them luck and hope that the players enjoy the experience. A great opportunity for that program.
    On another note, bleedpurple, exactly what do you mean by “if Kehres coaches the Mt. roster, maybe they would win!!”

  38. Actually, the Warhawks are WIAC Co-Champions, (not runner ups,) sharing the title with UW-SP, both with a 9-1 record. The Pointers won the head-to-head matchup making them the AQ for play-off purposes only, but both are 2007 WIAC Conference Champs.

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