While Keith is off climbing South America’s five highest peaks, swimming with sharks off the Yucatan Peninsula, dog sledding in the Northwest Territories, or doing whatever else he may like to do on vacation, Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann is going to help us break down the Allhallows Eve matchups for this week’s Triple Take. Regional rankings are out, and only 32 teams can be in. Some teams are in for treats, while others are certain to get tricked.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 11 Washington and Jefferson at No. 20 Thomas More. This is a game I’ve been looking forward to with curiosity for much of the season, primarily because I’ve been unconvinced as to how good the Presidents are this year. I’ve looked on Thomas More considerably more favorably throughout the past two months, and with both teams able to rest their laurels on their rushing offenses and defenses, it’ll be interesting to see how much of this comes down to the muscle in the trenches.
Gordon’s take: Rowan at Kean. These two teams have spent several weeks drawing a very bright line between the title contenders and the lower level teams in the NJAC. Now they put aside those impressive margins of victory in what could be a very entertaining match up. Which quarterback will lead his team to victory — Profs scrambler Frank Wilczynski (243 total yards per game, 11 touchdowns) or Cougars gun slinger Tom D’Ambrisi (222 passing yards per game, 14 passing touchdowns)?
Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at UW-Stevens Point. Do you think Whitewater got a little extra incentive this week? Whitewater lost to Stevens Point last year, costing it the WIAC’s automatic bid to the playoffs a second-round home game. And now, this week, Whitewater learned that it was the fourth-ranked team in the NCAA’s West Region rankings. So I am not picking this necessarily as a great game on the field, so to speak, but a showcase for what Whitewater can do.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Franklin at Rose-Hulman. No team in the HCAC may be in as good a position as the Engineers to put the brakes on Franklin’s passing game. And if Rose can keep the Grizzlies out of the red zone, they have a chance to make their five-touchdowns-a-game average really count.
Gordon’s take: No. 23 Delaware Valley vs. King’s. The Aggies defense has been very stingy, surrendering just seven points total to Wilkes and Lycoming. But Wilkes-Barre has always been a tough place for Del Val to play, plus the Aggies will be without senior quarterback Mike Isgro who is battling a sore shoulder. Instead junior Mark Hatty will get his first career start against a Monarchs squad that just missed beating Lycoming and hung in against Albright.
Pat’s take: Salisbury at No. 3 Wesley. I suspect Salisbury is only playing for Eastern Shore pride, perhaps an ECAC bowl game. The Sea Gulls don’t have enough firepower to get through the Wesley defense and hang with the Wesley offense, at least not on paper. But they’re rivals, after all … and can’t things happen in those games? Right?

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 9 North Central. What more talked about kink in the CCIW hose would there be than for Illinois Wesleyan to bring together all the pieces and pull out the upset against North Central? Will the Cardinals be complacent after winning big last week against Wheaton? I doubt it, but Aaron Fanthorpe will need to be on target for the full 60 minutes because few teams can exploit turnovers the way Illinois Wesleyan has been able to this season.
Gordon’s take: No. 21 Occidental. The Tigers should be favored at home playing Cal Lutheran with a chance to take a strangle hold on the SCIAC. But they were at home last week, too, when they narrowly beat winless La Verne 14-13. The Kingsmen would still have to get by Redlands if they can pick up the road win here, but I like CLU to add some Hollywood level drama to the conference race.
Pat’s take: No. 24 Alfred. With injury questions about No. 1 quarterback Tommy Secky, who didn’t get out of the second quarter, I’d think that Rochester has a shot. The Yellowjackets are 3-4, but have only been blown out once, losing tight games to St. John Fisher, Union and Susquehanna while beating RPI and WPI.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Salisbury. I haven’t decided whether this is a team that’s down and out, or just down. The Gulls are 2-2 against Division III teams, and all register as either quality wins or understandable losses. But with Wesley on tap for tomorrow, it’ll be important to know which Salisbury team is going to show up and whether this defense-heavy squad can come close to slowing the Wolverine machine.
Gordon’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater. Okay, it’s not that the Warhawks are off anyone’s radar. Nor do I think they’ll lose to UW-Stevens Point, despite the Pointers’ upset last year. But I’ve been as indecisive as Brett Favre at an offseason press conference on whether Mount Union or UW-Whitewater should be No. 1. This game will give us a point of comparison for the Warhawks similar to what we already have for Mount Union in its wins over Capital and Ohio Northern.

Based on preseason expectations, which team are you most surprised/impressed with to see in the regional rankings? And how will they fare Saturday?
Ryan’s take: The three MAC representatives. I hope I’m not stepping on Gordon’s turf too much here, but I couldn’t help but register the fact that last year, only one MAC team made an appearance on any of the regional rankings, and that was Albright at the very end of the regular season. It seemed like the polish had tarnished on the proud conference. This year, though, has marked an impressive resurgence for the conference top to bottom, going 16-8 in nonconference play, and getting three teams (Albright, Delaware Valley and Lebanon Valley) in the debut regional rankings. And come Saturday, all three should emerge winners.
Gordon’s take: No. 7 Otterbein. In the preseason I thought the Cardinals could be good, but probably not good enough to distinguish themselves from the talented scrum of OAC teams sitting behind Mount Union. And certainly not good enough to be ranked second in the first North region rankings. Otterbein needs one more win to equal last year’s 8-0 start with the trip to Alliance still looming on Nov. 7. The Cards will get it emphatically against Marietta (2-5).
Pat’s take: Coe. Although I seem to be typecasting myself as the West Region guy these days with this pick. Coming off a 4-6 season last year, the Kohawks were an afterthought in my projection of the IIAC race, but a Week 1 win against Augustana, and then a Week 7 win at Wartburg changed that. Coe shouldn’t have a problem at 2-5 Loras.

Which relatively new program has the best chance at a win this week?
Ryan’s take: St. Vincent. It wasn’t so long ago that the Bearcats were an easy win even for a team like Gallaudet, which was coming to the varsity level after years of club play. At 0-8, St. Vincent still isn’t a success story in the grand scheme of things, but a narrow 21-7 loss to W&J just two weeks ago suggests that they’re moving in the right direction. And both of the next two games (against Thiel and Bethany) are squarely in the “winnable” category.
Gordon’s take: Castleton State. The Spartans head to Becker which has scored more than one touchdown just once all year, a 62-39 loss to Maine Maritime. Castleton State has put some points this year and should be focused on this road game as a chance to notch its first win over a non-first year team. If the Spartans can go 3-6 in their first season, that’ll be a nice feather in their helmets when they recruit against the other very young programs in New England.
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica. Yeah, West guy. The Saints play Eureka on Friday in the Metrodome as part of the expanded UMAC’s Dome Day. I’d like to say Anna Maria, which hosts Gallaudet, can finish off its inaugural season with a win, but the Amcats have only been competitive against Castleton State.

Which conference without a team ranked in this week’s poll will go deepest in the playoffs?
Ryan’s take: Centennial. With four teams tied at the top, the team to get the automatic qualifier is still very much an unknown — and a Pool C isn’t out of the question either. But what I’ve seen of the Centennial teams is that when they’re healthy and on their game, they’re to be taken seriously. The conference this year is a classic beat-each-other-up scenario, leaving teams to easily fly under the radar. But that doesn’t mean they can’t drop some bombs on opponents into Round 2.
Gordon’s take: Essentially we’re looking for a surprise team who might be able to get two wins, and definitely one, in the playoffs. The East is definitely the easiest place to do that, provided a team can avoid getting shipped to Mount Union. There’s room for an unranked team to get a favorable first round draw and surprise a playoff newbie, like Alfred or Albright, at their place in the second round. So let’s go with the NJAC.
Pat’s take: The Liberty League. If Union wins, I figure there are plenty of opportunities for the Dutchmen to get a first-round game against a beatable opponent. I don’t see that for the HCAC, SCAC or some of the other leagues that don’t have any ranked teams.

Some conference races are becoming clearer, and three pairs of top 25 teams will meet on Saturday. With several one-loss teams still dotting the landscape and clusters of teams bunched at the top of conferences like the Centennial, the New Jersey and the Southern Collegiate, there is still plenty to watch and cheer for out there. Pat, Keith and I again break down some of the games that will play a role in the big picture — as well as noting a couple that aren’t as a big a factor as the early indicators suggested.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: No. 14 Capital at No. 10 Otterbein. The OAC’s No. 2 team is typically a lock to get selected for the playoffs — and this will be the likely decider for that honor. Expect the offenses to be at full throttle on Saturday, so far averaging 443 and 434 yards per game for Otterbein and Capital, respectively. But those same offenses will be testing the strongest facets of their opponent’s defense. As if playoff hopes, morale and pride weren’t enough to play for, would it help to be reminded that these Columbus-area rivals are but 20 minutes apart and have played each other 89 times during their histories? The series between them is nearly tied.

Keith’s take: No. 3 Wheaton at No. 13 North Central. Wow, I got third choice this week, and I feel like it’s a steal. I thought the Little Brass Bell game would be first off the board. Here’s why: It matches two top 15 teams who are CCIW title contenders and playoff possibilities. It’s a rivalry game. It’s been on the front page once already this week. And the Cardinals and Thunder have split the past four games, with each team winning once at home and once on the road.

Pat’s take: No. 6 Linfield at No. 17 Willamette. Can Linfield stomach losing three years in a row to the Bearcats? After giving up 429 yards of total offense to Pacific Lutheran, Willamette will need a better game on defense to beat the Wildcats. Linfield isn’t exactly La Verne or Lewis and Clark, two of the teams Willamette has put up big numbers on offense against.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: No. 24 Delaware Valley at Lycoming. The Warriors will be able to stay in this game if they find a way to spark even a little bit of offense. They match up well on defense against DelVal’s solid run game, but so far this season, opponents have been putting up more impressive numbers on the scoreboard than Lycoming has been able to generate.

Keith’s take: No. 11 Washington and Jefferson at Westminster and No. 23 Thomas More at Thiel. It’s important to remain in the moment. As a coach would say, the biggest game of the year is this week’s game. In the case of St. John’s (mentioned below) the challenge is not to look backward, but here’s it’s not looking ahead. The road game before an all-the-marbles conference clash is a danger spot. The Presidents and Saints each prevail, but not without some consternation.

Pat’s take: Wartburg at Dubuque. The two teams are headed in opposite directions right now, with Dubuque coming off a win against Simpson and Wartburg having lost to Coe last week. Slowing down Michael Zweifel (11 receptions, 137.6 yards per game) will be key for Wartburg, as will getting a better game from Nick Yordi (12 for 27, three interceptions, four sacks in last week’s loss).

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: None. If we’re talking upsets by non-top 25 squads, then I think the teams on the poll run a clean sweep of their opponents.

Keith’s take: No. 5 St. John’s. I don’t know that the Johnnies will really lose at home to 3-3 St. Olaf, which has been competitive in losses to No. 16 St. Thomas, Bethel and Carleton. But after having vanquished its two toughest MIAC challenges in the Royals and Tommies, St. John’s must guard against overconfidence as they finish out.

Pat’s take: No. 22 Franklin. Mount St. Joseph has plenty of players who remember what it was like to be the top dog in the HCAC and be a playoff team. A victory on Saturday would put them in the driver’s seat for a return trip

They’ll be on your radar.

Ryan’s take: Wooster. The Scots might be 4-2, but they are still undefeated in conference play and face the big dogs down the stretch — No. 18 Wabash, Allegheny and No. 21 Wittenberg. Wooster might not be the same team people were predicting it to be at the start of the season, but a few good bounces and the ability to continue forcing turnovers could keep the Scots in the spotlight.

Keith’s take: Union. The Dutchmen’s route to 5-1 has not been without risk; They’ve won by 10, seven, four and by three twice. The season’s longest road trip, for a non-conference game that has no bearing on Union’s pursuit of a playoff spot, against a Salisbury team whose triple-option attack had it ahead 31-6 in the fourth quarter of a 38-20 win against St. John Fisher a few weeks back, will be an interesting test. I’m also keeping an eye on Alfred (at St. John Fisher), Mount St. Joseph (at No. 22 Franklin) and Plymouth State (at Curry).

Pat’s take: McMurry. In a game that McMurry would be favored in, the former Indians have a chance to get back to .500 at 4-4 this week against Texas Lutheran, heading into a home game next week against struggling crosstown rival Hardin-Simmons. Just something to keep in mind.

By the end of Sunday, how many conferences will have at least two teams in the Top 25?

Ryan’s take: Eight. There are seven conferences right now sporting at least two teams on the poll, and I think a good showing by UW-La Crosse against UW-Stevens Point could cause them to bump out No. 25 Centre if they don’t play well against Millsaps.

Keith’s take: Six. Let’s say North Central, Willamette and Wabash (at Wooster) each picks up its second loss and drops out, leaving four (the OAC, ASC, MIAC, PAC) and Franklin does too, but Mount St. Joseph doesn’t garner enough votes to move in. Redlands is unconvincing in a game it should win but Alfred is, and the Saxons leapfrog in. All those things are imaginable, but not necessarily likely, so I split the difference.

Pat’s take: Eight. I picture Redlands coming in after the Franklin loss cited above. I don’t know about UW-La Crosse. A win would help but would also be perhaps unexpected after the past two weeks.

Which lost-its-luster game would you just as soon avoid?

Ryan’s take: Carthage at Augustana. The bubble has burst on these two teams’ playoff hopes despite promising starts in the early part of the season. Instead of vying for first place in the CCIW, this game will be a better indicator of fourth or fifth place. Which isn’t to say that’s without respect in a conference this tough, but it will get overshadowed by the more impactful matchups on the slate.

Keith’s take: Trinity (Texas) at DePauw. Are we dissing teams now? It’s not that the shine is completely off the ol’ Tiger-Tiger matchup, because it isn’t. But it has competition for biggest SCAC game of the day, which was unanticipated earlier in the year. It’s hard to believe that if the results break right, with Centre beating Millsaps and DePauw winning, that the Colonels could have the conference virtually won in Week 8.

Pat’s take: Montclair State at New Jersey. New Jersey’s oldest small-college rivalry looked like it was going to be a significant NJAC showdown, clash of styles, etc. But with TCNJ losing two of its last three, including last week’s game at William Paterson, it’s now more a curiosity, an offense vs. defense battle.

Which result will be least like last year: Cortland State at William Paterson; King’s at Lebanon Valley; Plymouth State at Curry; or Muhlenberg at Franklin and Marshall?

Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg at Franklin and Marshall. Last year the Diplomats were struggling to scrape together a .500 season and suffered a low-scoring loss to the Mules. Fast forward to ‘09, and the 5-1 Diplomats will see their playoff hunt stay alive after this weekend, which promises to showcase a punishing pass offense led by sophomore John Harrison, who averages 312 yards a game. The air attack will also give the Dips the ability to sidestep Muhlenberg’s still-tough run defense.

Keith’s take: King’s at Lebanon Valley. If you couldn’t remember why last year’s Cortland State (31 first-half points in 38-0 win) or Lebanon Valley (34-7 road win) results were significant, don’t feel bad, I didn’t either. As for this season, if we get the King’s team that beat Randolph-Macon and Widener and led Lycoming by 11 with six minutes left, and not the one that gave up 57 to Springfield, scored six against William Paterson or let the Warriors game slip, then that final should be more interesting than 34-7.

Pat’s take: Plymouth State at Curry. This isn’t to say that I think Plymouth State won’t win again — I actually do think it will. But this year it won’t be nearly as much of a surprise.

If the season was condensed down into a week, we would have just gotten over hump day (a term I think is particularly lame but does illustrate the point). The playoff picture is becoming clearer in some instances, and the first installment of the NCAA’s regional rankings is right around the corner. Welcome to the beginning of the regular season home stretch.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: Wittenberg at No. 10 Wabash. It looks like the Little Giants will be playing this one without starting quarterback Matt Hudson, but that won’t matter. I say that not because of Wabash’s capable talent waiting in the wings; I say it because this is just going to be Wittenberg’s year — no matter who would be under center for their opponent. Wittenberg boasts one of the stingiest defenses in the country, especially against the pass, and though Wabash is less one-dimensional than past years, the Tigers are hungry for a big feast. No matter how it plays out, both of these undefeated teams are primed for a postseason run.

Keith’s take: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Mississippi College. Honestly, I think it’s the Tommie-Johnnie game, but in the interest of variety, I’ll look south. And with the Cru going on the road to face the high-scoring Choctaws, and giving freshman LiDarral Bailey another start at quarterback, it could live up to the billing. Then again, UMHB averages 44 points per game and has allowed just 49 all season.

Pat’s take: No. 15 St. Thomas at No. 6 St. John’s. The Wabash grad takes the Wabash game and the Catholic guy from Minnesota takes the Tommie-Johnnie game. But I have a game where the winner could be a No. 1 seed that makes it possible for the committee to move UW-Whitewater out of region in the playoffs. And I’ll have 10,000 people in the stands at my game. Listen on the D3football.com Game of the Week. But about the game, it’s St. Thomas with the No. 1 total offense in the MIAC … and tops with 259.2 rushing yards per game against St. John’s, which allows 97.2 yards per game.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Wilkes at No. 23 Delaware Valley. Sure the Colonels are seeing their season unravel after two straight losses, but the fire is still there, and Delaware Valley isn’t yet the overwhelming team it has the potential to become.

Keith’s take: Concordia (Ill.) at Lakeland. In the Northern Athletics Conference, the 2-3 Muskies are at home against the 4-1 Cougars. Yet they’re likely the favorite, given their history of success, and that their three losses are against teams (Central, Mount St. Joseph and Carthage) that are a combined 15-1. Concordia is the upstart, and after a 56-7 loss to the Muskies two seasons ago, expect this year’s game to more resemble last season’s 35-32 Cougars victory.

Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at UW-Stout. Marcus Ball was clearly back at full strength last week at defensive end for Stout, recording three and a half tackles for loss and two fumbles against UW-Stevens Point. Whitewater running back Levell Coppage will be facing a defense that allows an average of 111 rushing yards per game, and that includes 224 by UW-River Falls, which needed 52 carries to do it.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: No. 4 Wheaton. It’s easy to think that the Thunder would roll through this weekend, en route to a CCIW title matchup against North Central next weekend. But Saturday’s opponent, Millikin, is 4-1 and coming off a win against previously unbeaten Illinois Wesleyan. The Big Blue are in a good position to play spoiler in the conference, though with just one loss, maybe “contender” is a better title for them.

Keith’s take: No. 16 Capital. Losses by No. 6 St. John’s, No. 10 Wabash or No. 11 Monmouth would technically be upsets, but not be completely surprising. But if the Crusaders, perhaps feeling good about themselves after pushing No. 1 Mount Union to the brink, get caught napping against a John Carroll team that lost at Wilmington two weeks ago, that’d be eye-opening. And yet in the upper-middle tier of the OAC, it’s always a possibility.

Pat’s take: No. 10 Wabash. I say this not knowing whether Matt Hudson will be able to play at quarterback, but with the expectation that he won’t. While Wittenberg’s strength of schedule is legendarily low (literally, with an OWP of .208) Wabash’s offensive edge will be lessened if its No. 1 quarterback can’t go. That won’t affect the Little Giant defense, which features a quick front seven, and while Wittenberg can put up points on Hiram, Earlham and Wash. U., that doesn’t necessarily translate.

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets are squaring off against an Emory and Henry team that’ll be looking to rebound from last week’s loss. E&H will be fired up to remain in the at-large playoff hunt, but more noticeably, R-MC has been carefully keeping itself in contention to win the ODAC after opening the season with two nonconference losses. The Yellow Jackets made it to Week 12 last year a little slyly through the back door, and a win here is imperative if they want to accomplish that again.

Keith’s take: Christopher Newport. It’s hard to know what to make of the perennial USAC top dogs. Two of their three wins came in multiple overtimes, perhaps demonstrating impressive resolve, but they also lost the opener 34-0 to No. 5 Wesley. North Carolina Wesleyan has an identical 2-0, 3-2 record, with a 55-23 loss to No. 18 Hampden-Sydney and, like CNU, a close win against Salisbury. The Captains are playing for control of the USAC, though Maryville might be trouble later. I’m curious as to what they’re made of.

Pat’s take: Coe. I just might be prepared to say they’ll shock the IIAC by defeating Wartburg on Saturday. That will make the Kohawks 5-1, 3-1 in the conference, and who knows? A win against Augustana helps the ol’ Pool C resume.

Which team that lost for the first time last weekend will have the most impressive rebound on Saturday?

Ryan’s take: St. Norbert. Carroll is in the unenviable position of having to line up against St. Norbert a week after the Green Knights were pasted by Monmouth in one of the key indicators toward the MWC’s automatic qualifier. This conference hasn’t made the grade before in the Pool C hunt, but an impressive run down the stretch — starting against Carroll — can give St. Norbert some recognition.

Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse. After a loss at UW-Platteville took the wind from under the Eagles’ wings, they’ve likely humbled themselves to take UW-River Falls very seriously. Though 0-2 in the WIAC, the Falcons lost at Stout in overtime and by two at Oshkosh. La Crosse’s rebound won’t be impressive in margin of victory, but as an accomplishment.

Pat’s take: Redlands. A home game against Whittier is a good cure for what ails you, even if the Poets have already won twice as many games as last season and are coming off a strong win against Chapman. Now, Capital, on the other hand, needs to guard against a post-Mount Union letdown. Just thought I’d throw that in.

Which of the nation’s statistical Top 10 defenses will be put to the test on Saturday?

Ryan’s take: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Mississippi College has been averaging 45 points a game already this year in one of the nation’s toughest conferences. Quarterback Adam Shaffer has a plethora of receiver options, which will push the speed and depth of UMHB’s secondary. If the Crusaders can keep the points down, there will be little denying how talented this team is.

Keith’s take: No. 11 Monmouth. It’s easy to assume the Scots passed their toughest MWC test by beating perennial power St. Norbert last Saturday, but it might be 5-1 Ripon that pushes them most. With the nation’s 14th-best rushing offense, rolling up 263 yards per game on the ground, the Red Hawks will put Monmouth’s 17th-ranked rushing defense (73 yards per game) to the test.

Pat’s take: No. 14 North Central. The Cardinals rolled up some gaudy defensive numbers against Benedictine, Olivet, Millikin and North Park. I think it’s fair to suggest that Carthage is a different animal. Consider the following: North Central gave up 402 yards of total offense to Ohio Northern in Week 1. It has given up 187.5 yards per game on average to the other four.

With a win this weekend, which unbeaten team most deserves a spot in the Top 25?

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney. Sorry to trot out another ODAC team in Triple Take, but the Tigers started getting votes from me this past week. As balanced of a team as they are this year, a place in the Top 25 should emerge soon.

Keith’s take: Albright. You mean of the teams that aren’t ranked already? I’ve voted for Alfred and Hampden-Sydney for a couple weeks now, and Wittenberg would definitely attract votes with a win over Wabash. But few have made mention of the Lions, whose resume is similar to several of the unbeaten ranked teams that have yet to face their toughest opponents. Scoring 34 a game and holding three opponents to single digits is definitely worth considering.

Pat’s take: Alfred. The Saxons don’t even need a win this weekend to merit their spot. (That’s good, because they have a bye.) They’re far more qualified for a Top 25 slot than Ithaca was entering last week, for example.