Alright, this is it, our last word on who we think will be in the playoffs. This is our final projection. We’ll all find out during the selection show at 11:30 a.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. I’d like to toot our own horn, with the fact that we got every at-large team right last year, but this year the selection process changes slightly, with the disappearance of the Quality of Wins Index and the return of opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. So we’re optimistic, but cautious.

As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Gordon Mann and I, as we have for the past several years, debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.

St. John Fisher Bracket
1. St. John Fisher (C)
2. Curry (A)
3. RPI (A)
4. Hobart (C)
5. New Jersey (A)
6. Hartwick (A)
7. Ithaca (C)
8. Widener (A)
A surprise, perhaps, right off the bat as we have three Empire 8 teams in the field. Hartwick passed Widener in opponents’ winning percentage (OWP) and OOWP this week and dragged Ithaca up with them. Widener plays at St. John Fisher, Ithaca at Curry, Hartwick at RPI and New Jersey at Hobart.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Franklin (A)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
6. North Central (A)
7. Capital (C)
8. Olivet (A)
Despite Wabash’s loss, we kept them in the No. 2 slot, giving them the nod based on a significantly higher opponents’ winning percentage. The traditional pairings get broken up here a little, as Mt. St. Joseph and Franklin wouldn’t play again in the first round. Olivet travels to Mount Union, Capital to Wabash, North Central to Franklin and Mt. St. Joseph to Case.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Trinity, Texas (A)
7. Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
Despite the seedings, of course, the Texas teams play each other in the first round, with Trinity at Mary Hardin-Baylor. North Carolina Wesleyan is within the 500-mile radius of Washington and Jefferson, with Hampden-Sydney heading to Wesley and Salisbury at Muhlenberg.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Bethel (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. St. John’s (C)
6. Redlands (A)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
Whitworth would be the first team in a non-automatic bid conference to earn a Pool C bid. And of course, the money saving NCAA would put No. 7 seed Whitworth at No. 6 seed Redlands, even though it’s the only flight of the bracket. Concordia (Wis.) gets the honor of the short trip to UW-Whitewater, with St. Norbert at Bethel and St. John’s at Central.

So our Pool B decision was easy: Wesley, Salisbury, Case Western Reserve.

Pool C was easier. Wait, make that harder. It went St. John Fisher, St. John’s, Mt. St. Joseph, Hobart, Capital, Whitworth and Ithaca. Millsaps, Wheaton and Wartburg were on the board when the buzzer sounded and Wheaton was the last team left out, the proverbial eighth Pool C team. Wheaton and Ithaca have nearly identical credentials but very different endings to their seasons.

It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 22 automatic bids, 10 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold.

New Jersey Bracket
1. New Jersey (Pool A)
2. Curry (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. RPI (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Hobart (C)
7. Hartwick (A)
8. Widener (A)
We tried projecting this bracket without figuring out who would win the Liberty League, but it wasn’t doable. So we projected Hobart and RPI to win their games, which gives RPI the automatic bid. Hartwick and St. John Fisher win in Week 11 and Hartwick gets the automatic bid. Salisbury gets moved into this bracket because there aren’t enough East teams that qualify.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Trinity, Texas (A)
6. Capital (C)
7. Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
North Carolina Wesleyan can get to Washington and Jefferson within the prescribed 500 miles, and Capital can get to Muhlenberg as well. Interesting how when you lift Salisbury out of the bracket, you get the two Texas teams at 4-5.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Wheaton, Ill. (A)
5. Franklin (A)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
7. MIAA champ (A)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
The travel works out in this bracket, even from Mequon, Wis., to Alliance, Ohio. We qualified nine teams for the playoffs from the North Region, which filled this bracket after we moved Capital to the South.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Redlands (C)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Cal Lutheran (A)
Alright, NCAA penny-pinching could rear its ugly head here. But even the NCAA couldn’t possibly make Redlands and Cal Lutheran play again, one week later, right? Right?? Let’s hope so, anyway. So we’re sending Whitworth to Redlands and Cal Lutheran to UW-Whitewater in the Danny Jones Reunion Bowl. Bethel can’t play St. John’s again, unfortunately for St. Norbert, because Norbert gets the call. Bethel would be at Central.

We end up with three teams with two regional losses in Pool C in this projection: Capital, Hobart and Bethel. Occidental, with one regional loss and the weakest opponents’ winning percentage among one-loss teams (currently .391), gets passed in the regional rankings when Redlands beats Cal Lutheran and gets left home. Waynesburg’s .424 is the second-lowest.

We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.