A penny pinched is still just a penny.
For the cost of one extra flight, the NCAA decided to pair up top 10 teams in the first round, not once, but twice. That’s just plain wrong.
I know the folks in Indianapolis are tired of hearing the term, but the shoe fits.
Perhaps it happens so often that I’ve become anesthetized to it, but the more I reflect on this bracket, the more upsetting it is. What’s the point of adding teams to the bracket if we’re still going to be stuck eliminating Top 10 teams so early?
The fascination over saving first-round flights is interesting, considering that the current policy guarantees second-round flights. When you eliminate one of the two Texas teams early, you guarantee someone flies to or from Texas for the duration of team’s life in the tournament. If you set them up to play in the second round, the reward comes later.
Besides, even if we are indeed to bow down to the altar of “geographic proximity,” why not put UW-Whitewater in the north and Lakeland in the West? Whitewater is much closer to Illinois, which is the gateway to the rest of this bracket. I know this committee has never done much for competitive balance, but how about at least following your own guidelines?
“Once selected, teams will be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity.”
But apparently, only for reasons of saving money, not for balancing the bracket.
SmedIndy,
Thanks for filling me in regarding the Massey rankings. The CCIW still looks good.
Is it just me, or is Bracket 4 the weakest by a long, long, long way? I mean wow. Congrats to the teams that made it, but lets get real, they are lucky to be where they are. Undefeated teams should not be playing each other in the first round, just as the bottom feeders shouldn’t be playing each other in the first round.
JOHNS HOPKINS OR THIEL? I am having a tough time deciding between the two. Will JH defense hold Thiel? Both are in weak conferences and have weak schedule rakings.
CORTLAND ST. OR HOBART? Give me something people. These are two teams that would have 0% chance of winning in Bracket 1, but now can move on.
I will not like it when the season is over.
Sean – I do a power rating amalgamation using three power ratings, SOS and a factor of my own that I’m going to post in Top 25 and the playoff thread on Post Patterns. It’s just something fun but it does reveal something about the strength of each region.
Well, I’ll post it there when Post Patterns gets back on line.
Needless to say, the West is a beast, and you CCIW fans will be happy. And Ohio Northern, Hardin – Simmons, DePauw, and Cal Lutheran may be questioning Wilkes. Ah, well.
Reply to midwest fb-I hope the North Central game doesn’t last 5 hours because I will be there with my two young children!
I’ll be there too Palermo. NCC has already played 3 1/2 hour games this season (imagine how long the games would be with tv timeots). Capital is also a very good offensive team. There could be a lot of scoring, a lot of passing, and it could took a while to settle this one. Good thing the game starts at Noon …
mwfb & Palermo,
I will be there too. The weather forecast is calling for rain. Not good for NCC offense…even worse for my tailgating aspirations!
I hope SJU isn’t looking past Monmouth to Whitewater. Keep in mind that St. Norbert lost 27-20 in Collegeville (’01), and trailed 17-13 before the Johnnies ended the 2nd half with 21 unanswered in ’03. The Scots are well rested after a week 11 bye, and Dante Daniels (851 yds, 12TD in 8 gms.) will be back in the backfield to compliment the nations top rated passer. The Johnnies are a better team, and their at home, and MC is the only unbeaten NOT RANKED, but don’t get cocky! I’d love to see the Scots prove a point this Saturday.
The Scots are without a doubt, undeniably, unquestionably, the best unranked 10 win team in the country (feel the sarcasm). Can I say that MC is the best team with the name SCOTS? Can I at least say they are the best D3 school in Warren County, IL? This is just disgusting!
The NOAA forecast for Naperville on Saturday is Sunny and 43. If it does rain, NCC has played in the rain the last two weeks. So, it should be a little familiar. Field turf is fine in the rain, the only problem is whether the ball stays dry. Capital averages 250 yds/game passing and 150 running. So, their offense will be hindered too if it rains. It’s not like playing Augie who would be happy with rain, since they love to run anyways. Rain wouldn’t necessarily favor either North Central or Capital.
Well I should certainly hope Ferrum isn’t looking past this weekends team. They will really need to get something going this weekend….I just hope it is more than the bus back to Franklin County.
Ferrum 24…Wesley 19
What would lead you to believe Ferrum would look past anyone? They got railed by a 6-4 team from an average-at-best conference. If they weren’t an automatic qualifier, a loss like that could’ve cost them a playoff spot all together. The only saving grace was their 42-37 win vs. Methodist.
“Ferrum 24…Wesley 19”
Wesley’s 42.4 ppg offense should have a field day against Ferrum. Wesley and Ferrum had two like opponents this year; Averett and Chowan. Ferrum went 2-0 with a combined 98-66 score, while Wesley outscored them 108-22! Not to mention Wesley has something Ferrum does not…a win versus a ranked team (beat Salisbury 63-19). The only thing these two have in common is that they both forgot to show up once this year (Wesley vs. Brockport and Ferrum vs. CNU). If anyone should be avoiding looking forward to the 2nd round it’s Wesley.
My prediction:
Wesley 41, Ferrum 21.
As someone said earlier, there will be TV timeouts. Unfortunately I must leave the friendly confines of Wabash and Holliet Stadium this saturday b4 the game to return home to for the holidays. Does anyone know the channel in which the games will be broadcast. I’d love to follow the little giants still. Any help would be appreciated. thx.
blackhatson the hill – Being a Ferrum grad I hope you are right. My heart says you are but my head says you are not.
GoScotties – Not sure what you mean by Ferrum’s victory over Methodist being their saving grace except for the fact it got them in the playoffs. (Ok, guess that is saving grace enough) In my opinion Methodist is a slightly above average team that if you remove a couple of skill guys, they become very average. No dis intended to Methodist and it is perhaps unfair to judge a team on one ball game but an average Maryville (though probably better than their record) team whipped Methodist for over 3 and a half quarters. (winning 24 to 14 with less than 5 to go) Methodist wins 28 to 24 only because of those couple skill guys I mentioned. Ferrum beating Methodist by only 5 is a concern when you look at it through the goggles of the national stage. Of course all this score comparing can get you in BIG trouble but many of us tend to do it anyway. As someone mentioned earlier, the good news is this will all get decided on the field shortly.
GO PANTHERS!!!
GO EAGLES!!! (I’m an H-SC fan but hey, lets keep it in the family, right?!)
SeanGOP,
In response to you:
“Is it just me, or is Bracket 4 the weakest by a long, long, long way? I mean wow. Congrats to the teams that made it, but lets get real, they are lucky to be where they are. ”
Interesting thought, but I disagree. I’d point out that Bracket 4 only has 1-two loss team, whereas Bracket 2 & 3 have multiple 2-3 loss teams. I hope you’re not just going by a flawed Massey Ratings system for your analysis.
“Undefeated teams should not be playing each other in the first round, just as the bottom feeders shouldn’t be playing each other in the first round. JOHNS HOPKINS OR THIEL? Both are in weak conferences and have weak schedule rakings.”
Interesting again that you would say undefeated shouldn’t play in the first round, and then you imply that Undefeated Thiel is a bottom-feeder.
Also, Thiel has a Top 10 QOWI, which, unlike Massey, is a tool the NCAA uses to evaluate teams.
Mizzou –
But that doesn’t mean the QOW index isn’t flawed. It is…
Mizzou Mofia,
I meant the weakest bracket ever was Bracket 2 at the bottom of the page (I made a mistake – bottom of page, must be 4 – oops). So your pointing out the stats were right on about Bracket 4.
What I should have said was the East Bracket is the weakest bracket of them all by a long, long, long, long way. There is Delaware Valley and Union for the good, and all the rest are crap (not so much Rowan). They play weak schedules and come from weak conferences. They all lucked out by making that bracket – BIG TIME. And Delaware Valley is not that great – I think Monmouth could whip them.
The Champ will come from the West, and the West Championship game should be the Stagg Bowl.
Also dude, there is no way that Thiel can be compared to UW Whitewater, Linfield, St. Johns or Occidental. The only way Thiel could even be in the same sentence is to mention how badly those 4 teams kicked their butt – if they even made it that far (which they won’t), or even played someone of that caliber.
If Thiel played in the CCIW or the WIAC we wouldn’t be having this discussion, because they would be lucky, very lucky to be a .500 team.
Thiel, as you may be aware, has a strength of schedule ranking a whopping 143rd toughest in the country. Not exactly intimidating. The Presidents conference ranks a lowly 18th in the country. The other “power” team in the same conference, Washington and Jefferson, has a strength of schedule which ranks in at the 181 toughest in the country. Wow, I wish Augustana could play them (my powerful team from a powerful conference, you know, a conference with real competition. 4 different ranked teams this year, and 6 teams which got votes in the d3football.com poll)
Thiel should be thankful that they get to play someone with just as weak a schedule as themselves.
So people, THIEL OR JOHNS HOPKINS? Give me a reason I should pick one over the other.
Again with the Massey ratings? Please. You show me the Massey ratings that say how good the WIAC is, and I’ll show you 3-7 in the postseason. Top to bottom, yes, a strong conference. Not a lot of ‘free wins’ in the conference. But it’s been awhile since the WIAC’s best team has made some noise in the postseason.
“The Champ will come from the West, and the West Championship game should be the Stagg Bowl.”
I think I could half-agree with you. Linfield has to be the favorite to win it all again. But the West Championship game “the Stagg Bowl”…come on.
Last year Linfield pasted the WIAC champ by 38 points, then destroyed Occidental by 29. The closest game Linfield had all season was IN the Stagg Bowl, a closely fought 28-21 win over UMHB.
I don’t think Thiel will make it far enough to ‘test the west’, but I also think the West’s unbeaten 5 aren’t so much better than Thiel that you can write off Thiel, but not write off some of them. I could see 3, if not 4 of the West’s Unbeatens going home curtesy of a Monkey Stomp.
BTW, Pick Thiel because Hopkins can’t score.
Massey has nothing to do with the past – it’s all in the here and now and how teams are doing in the here and now.
SmedIndy,
Alright 🙂 Let’s just take a look at how good (or bad) of a system Massey is at the Division III level.
Here’s the final Numbers from last season in Massey. Linfield Number 1. Ok..good. UMHB Number 2. Congrats, they put the two teams in the finals at the top. I wonder what formula they used to figure that out…
Let’s see how Massey does after that…
7-4 UW-Lax was Number 4 and rated higher than Mount Union, even after getting blown out by Linfield. Number 6: UW-Whitewater (7-3), Number 7: UW-Eau Claire (7-3), Number 8: UW-Stevens Point (6-4), Number 11: UW Platteville (6-4). 5-4 UW-Stout was Number 13. UW-Oshkosh was 5-5 and Number 15.
And maybe the kicker, UW-Riverfalls was 3-7 and in the Top 20 out of 212 schools. Poor east coast semifinalist Rowan and 12-1 W&J didn’t even get ranked that high.
So after looking at that, please excuse me from believing Massey is a good ranking system at the Division III level.
Just wanted to address this “knock ” on the WIAC teams play-off records of the past. Not really familiar with any teams before 2003 so have a limited knowledge of the details of those records. I recognize that the numbers are not great. But if this years bracketing is any indication of the road to the Stagg Bowl of WIAC teams in the past, I understand how an early exit is very possible. The 2005 WW Warhawks is one of the most accomplished teams in regards to record, rankings, not to mention the school and WIAC records they have been breaking throughout the season, to come out of the WIAC in 5 years. (The last time a WIAC team ran the table.) Yet by the end of the 3rd round they will have had to beat the #1 and #3 team in the nation just to get out of their region and that is after they have had to beat #18. The West bracket has guaranteed that only 1 of the top 3 teams can make it into the final four!! So, if WW is unable to win out and loses as early as the 2nd round to one of the top teams in the nation, will it be said that this WIAC team is weak and couldn’t make it past the second round? Because without examining the circumstances of the loss, that would be an unfair assessment of the team and conference. But, somehow, I suspect that is exactly what will be said in the years to come when play-off comparisons are made. The PR is much better if one loses in the Semi -Final or Final round!! The “Yellow Brick Road,” to the Stagg Bowl has become a mine field for the top 3 teams on the nation as well as #6. The NCAA should be embarassed!
Mizzou – the whole POINT of the Massey ratings (and the other ratings systems) is to compare schools – where records DON’T matter. Who knows, based on the criteria, River Falls MAY HAVE BEEN BETTER than Rowan.
You must acknowledge that the WIACs records are such because they beat each other up in the conference season. They get such high ratings because they mop up the floor with some pretty good teams in the pre-conference season.
it’s a way to OBJECTIVELY compare schools, which is hard for some people to grasp. I think the Massey ratings, Sagarin ratings, et. al. are great tools in looking at disparate teams.
Wiac watcher,
I don’t mean any disrespect to the WIAC as a conference. My point in typing above was more to knock the Massey ratings for D3 than the WIAC. As the WIAC is Massey’s D3 baby, I threw out some results that, on paper, don’t look great for the WIAC. Those that have followed D3 football know that most of those playoff loses were to top tier teams in close games.
As Ralph Turner pointed out earlier on this blog, the 2004 UMHB team played #7 Trinity, #3 HSU, #5 W&J, and #1 MUC on the ROAD, but made it through that mine field to the Stagg Bowl. With at least 2 home games, the Warhawks will have an even better chance to make some noise.
That said, they better come prepared, especially in that bracket. There are no free passes. The last WIAC team to run the table in the regular season can attest to that.
To back up SmedIndy, I will repeat myself. The WIAC teams this year played 22 preseason games against teams in over 9 different conferences. They won 14 and lost 8. The 8 losses were to the defending national champs (Linfield,) a D-1A team, Drake, 2 D-2 schools, (SDSU and Bemidje State), #3 St. Johns, #22 Hardin Simmon and #10 Augustana to name a few. The WIAC teams have earned respect in the polls and rankings because of years of successful competition against some of the best teams and conferences in the country.
Drake is not only not Division I-A, it’s not even really I-AA. It’s I-AA nonscholarship, which means it awards the same number of football scholarships as WIAC schools do: zero.
I believe we can officially consider South Dakota State a I-AA school, however.
And yet they always have SOME excuse for not getting to the Stagg Bowl. If the conference is head-and-shoulders above all the rest (as Massey implies) then there should be a WIAC rep in the Stagg at some point.
Smed,
In 2004, based on the criteria, the LAST PLACE TEAM in the WIAC WAS better than Rowan, W&J, St. Johns, Wheaton, Trinity, Augustana, Pac Lutheran, Delaware Valley, Wooster, Bridgewater, and every team in the OAC except MUC.
I’m aware of the WIAC’s out of conference success. But these schools I listed all had out of conference success too. Some even won playoff games, and one even *GASP* beat a WIAC team. BUT, based on Massey’s criteria, because these schools aren’t in the WIAC, they can’t get the ‘bonus points’ associated with being in the WIAC.
This is a flaw in Massey’s criteria. It regionalizes talent to the extreme, and at the D3 level, it comes up with flawed results. This isn’t a problem at the D1 level because money for cross-country games isn’t a problem.
Ron – This may be the year.
Mizzou –
Massey isn’t the only power rating that rates all of the WIAC (along with the MIAC, the CCIW and the IIAC) – so does Born and La-Z.
And how do you get “bonus” points? You play the teams on the schedule and it measures how well you do against them, that’s all. If all of a sudden Curry and the rest of the NEFC starting rolling over everyone non-conference by wide margins, then they’d get the bump.
One thing I did notice was that some conferences took a plummet over the last three weeks of the season – especially the aforemented NEFC and that motley UMAC collection of schools.
I stand corrected on that point, Pat. I knew that Drake was a nonscholorship school in football as is their entire conference, I believe.
Looked all that up several weeks ago and was going by memory today. Obviously, it is not so good these days, lol!!
Oh, and I don’t think I had it exactly right then either! Will do better with the homework in the future!
The correction doesn’t really detract too much from my point, however. Instead of one D-1A and two D-2 schools, the corrected account is one D-1AA nonscholarship school and one D-1AA school and one D-2 school. Still all pretty good competition for D-3 teams.
And Ron,
Can’t argue with your point. There should be a WIAC team in the Stagg Bowl at some point if the conference is so much better! Can’t really explain why their play-off history isn’t better than it is. Maybe this year! Go Hawks!
Smed,
I’ve read a lot about what other people have said about Massey, but didn’t read any of the official methodology until today when I started reading it off the Massey site. The way I understand it, there is a slight carryover from records from the previous year, which is supposed to be mostly washed out by the end of the year. Key late season victories count more (which is how the 2 finalists usually get 1-2).
As far as the ‘bonus points.’ Here’s my basic take on that. A WIAC team (take River-Falls last season) could lose all of its non-conference games and still get ranked in the Top 20 by Massey (as did River Falls). That’s a credit to the other league members winning so many non-conference games. Massey includes the who-beat who-beat who-beat who (etc) principles into its ratings. So really, I think you’re right in saying that if another conference started consistently winning a large portion of its non-conference games, they could get a good spike.
A problem then arises for ranking good teams in medium-to-weak conferences in Division III, where you don’t have a lot of travel outside of driving distance in the regular season. They don’t get the benefit of the who-beat-who circle until playoff time, and the playoff’s often don’t provide enough games for every good team to move up to where they should be. Even when Trinity beat the West Region Champs in 02 to make the Stagg, a West region team finished ranked higher.
I haven’t read the Born or Laz methodology recently, so I can’t comment on them. It’s my hunch though that many of these power indexes (including Massey) were built for Division I sports, where there are considerably less teams, and more overlap in games between regions. If you look at the final Massey ratings in 2004 Division I football, it’s not a far stretch from the final AP poll. If you look at the final Division III ratings, it looks nothing close to the D3football.com Top 25. The method serves a purpose, but serves it much more accurately outside of Division III.
That’s why I have my own methodology, and have posted a mix of the power ratings with my own factors.
OK OK,
The past of the WIAC is the past. I’m looking at this year, and this year they are the best conference in the nation. The CCIW is a close second (21-3 best in the nationnon-conference record, two of the losses by one team). How do you think a Thiel or a Delaware Valley would do in the WIAC or CCIW? Answer – not good. There are only a handfull of teams in the playoffs that would have made it had they had to play a CCIW or WIAC schedule.
This year UW Whitewater is my pick in the pool to win it all. I having them beating Augustana in the final. My other final 4 picks are Mary Hardin-Baylor and Rowan.
And for Mizzou Mofia, I picked Thiel over Johns Hopkins. Johns Hopkins may have good defense, but they only have good defense against weak opponents.
And for those who don’t like the Massey ratings, your team must not be ranked too high. Massey does not use win / loss record as the only criteria. Only a fool would use win / loss criteria exclusively to make picks for the playoff pool or for rankings.
GO AUGIE!! I would love for Augie to win the whole thing, believe me, but I have to use my brain when making picks. That way, I have a better chance at winning the pool. I like my chances
Larry Kehres was offered the Head Job at Kent State a few years back. But many wouldn’t call that a major college football program.