Triple Take: Stagg Bowl predictions

Predicting the Stagg Bowl has now reached double digits.

Dating to 1999, this marks the 10th consecutive time that we have made predictions for the championship game, though it hasn’t always been with this broad of a forecasting base. To cap the season, we have several voices leading off the discussion about Saturday’s game.

Last year, Tom Pattison of Warhawkfootball.com and Matt Barnhart of Bridgewaterfootball.com were our “champion” pickers, each foreshadowing a 27-24 Whitewater victory. The actual final score was 31-21.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007

This year is unique in several ways, and with that comes unique ways of looking at
the matchup. The takes:

Pat Coleman, D3football.com
I haven’t had a great postseason of picks after a good early start, and often it seems to be from picking UW-Whitewater wrong. Last year we saw the key to beating Mount Union, and part of it is containing Nate Kmic. One thing I’ve seen from the Warhawks this year is the ability to limit, if not eliminate, yards after contact. And that’s despite starting two new linebackers. If the game becomes a battle of the secondaries, I like Whitewater’s chances. If it’s a battle of the kicking game, then I like Whitewater even more. But I worry about the quarterback play when I make this prediction. Mount Union clearly has a decided edge in Greg Micheli, with both his arm and his legs. I’m not big into cliches about wanting it more, or stuff like that. I just can foresee UW-Whitewater doing enough things right to win this game.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
I’d like to call this one a toss-up, but I’m not sure it is one. Unless Anthony White and the UW-Whitewater defensive line can cause some disruption among Luke Summers and the Mount Union offensive line (yeah, I just name-dropped linemen), it seems like the Mount Union offense will hum as usual. It will be physical, and the Warhawks will get their licks in, but if they defend their title, it would be a mild surprise to me. If all else is equal, the combination of the most efficient passer in college football history and the leading rusher in NCAA history should put Mount Union over the top.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Whitewater vs. Mount Union IV. From a Whitewater perspective, looking at the statistics of Nate Kmic, Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts, you wonder if the Warhawks belong on the same field. Had the same feeling in ’07. A reporter from the Roanoke area repeatedly tried to get MUC head coach Larry Kehres this week to say that the Purple Raiders were out for revenge following UWW’s 31-21 win in last year’s Stagg Bowl. No dice! Kehres isn’t looking for revenge, he is looking for
his team to play error-free football, something it did not do in last year’s game. The farther you go in the playoffs, the more magnified are turnovers and missed scoring opportunities in the Red Zone. Whitewater getting back to the Stagg Bowl after losing 24 seniors and 17 starters from last year’s National Championship team is simply amazing. The team jelled early in the season and rode its defense to a share of the WIAC title. As a fifth seed, UWW needed to travel to Salem, Ore., to slow down the high octane offense of Willamette. Last week, the Hawks dominated a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that most predicted would beat Whitewater and advance to the Stagg Bowl. The Hawks possess a strong, physical, fast defense. The offense features two 1000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. They are not Justin Beaver, but they are pretty darn good! I also think Whitewater’s special teams have an advantage over MUC, lead by Jeff Schebler, NCAA Division III’s all-time leading field goal kicker. Hawks win the special teams play and force four MUC turnovers.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 21

Bret Page, former Mary Hardin-Baylor linebacker
I believe that both teams will try to set the tempo early by trying to set up and establish the run game. UWW will have a slight advantage at being more balanced and mixing in the pass. Mount Union will have to play well on defense as they seem a little small, and I think Whitewater will make them pay for that as they have proven to be very big and physical in their impressive win over UMHB this year. I think it will be a clean game as both teams are disciplined, so which ever team is able to capitalize on errors such as penalties and turnovers will have the upper hand. I think neither team will be able to count on one player to carry them through, but it will be a total team effort for both sides as they will have to mix it up to try to pull out the win. Whitewater in a close one …
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 28

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
Regardless of how the Stagg Bowl turns out, Coach Lance Liepold has my vote for the D3football.com Coach of the Year. Both Mount Union and UW-Whitewater had to replace a significant portion of their starting lineups this year, but the Warhawks lost the offensive player of the year and their starting quarterback. They’ve battled through injuries, playoff road games and the toughest conference in Division III. The magnitude of that accomplishment underlines potential weaknesses going into Saturday. Last year the Warhawks had an intangible edge in that Justin Beaver was playing the last game in a spectacular college career. This year that edge slides over to Mount Union because of Nate Kmic and Greg Micheli. The situations aren’t the same but watching Mount Union stifle Wheaton when its top running back was hurt makes me wonder how effective the UW-Whitewater’s ground game will be if Levell Coppage isn’t at full strength. And while UW-Whitewater has impressive wins, they haven’t looked invincible. Remember they lost to two-loss UW-Stevens Point and had close games with Willamette and Wartburg (20-17 in fourth quarter). On the bright side for UWW, I was wrong on two of three previous matchups.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater is proof that the whole is greater than the parts. The skill players aren’t household names like Mount Union’s Micheli or Kmic, but as a unit, the Warhawks have overcome tests of injury, travel and inexperience, to name a few. They emerged from the toughest branch of the “West” bracket, have been forcing turnovers (+13 on the season) and can put pressure on a quarterback. The biggest offensive weapon for UW-W could be dual rushers that have the potential to sustain a drive and wear down Mount’s defense. But for every score Whitewater can put up, Mount should be able to match. UW-W has proven throughout the postseason that it can stop the run, but facing a passing game as sophisticated and crisp as MUC’s may become the Achilles’ heel for the defending national champions.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 31

Frank Rossi, D3football.com
It’s a tough choice, now that the Warhawks have broken the ice with a win last year. There are some things that are consistent every year with these teams: 1) Mount Union’s offense is in tip-top shape; 2) Mount Union’s defense has proven sturdy all season; and 3) UW-Whitewater’s defense has improved all year. That leaves one question for me — but the Warhawks’ offense is not as strong as it was last year with Justin Beaver. Because of this, Mount Union unseats the defending
champions, pulling away at the end.
Mount Union 42, UW-Whitewater 24

Sideline Guy: Cold Weather, Warm Reception

[Note: This is an entry of an ongoing Stagg Bowl blog by sideline commentator Frank Rossi. To read his previous entry, click here.]

My first full day in Virginia has started very well, although, as some have pointed out after my first blog entry, the weather has become suspect. More on that in a bit, but first, an update to the map since last I updated you here.

Last night, I waited in Dulles Airport for Pat Coleman to finish his day job and tripped onto a Washington, D.C., staple, Five Guys, for a makeshift lunch/dinner. I now understand the hype that I’ve heard — “cheap eats” that make a burger lover happy. For me, this trip is about accentuating the positives, so Five Guys gets high marks on the karma scale to kick things off (granted, my diet is deteriorating down here with the hotel cookie and the greasy food, but New Year’s resolutions don’t start for another couple weeks…). When Pat picked me up, we headed down to Roanoke without incident (meaning, no fights about the music choice). By the time we got settled in at the hotel, it was bedtime for me after a long day of travel.

This morning, I woke up pretty early without any problem — I think I have a little adrenaline running through my veins with the Stagg Bowl approaching. The daytime hours involved two events; the first was interview sessions with both teams, and the second was watching both teams practice on the actual Stagg Bowl field. Interviews with the coaches present some instant contrasts when you compare the two men. For Whitewater, Coach Lance Leipold comes across a little reserved but very warm — an easy guy to talk to, and someone who you know bonds well with his team. For Mount Union, Coach Larry Kehres comes across more as a stoic authority figure at first — very direct with his answers, but very open about his feeling about certain topics. In fact, Coach Kehres was more fun to speak with after the official interview, as he became anecdotal (for instance, we know now that he’s a “Criminal Minds” fan on CBS based on some post-interview comment he made). This is the type of thing you don’t get to see on game day or from conference calls with the teams; it truly humanizes the men who have become household names in Division III households over the last couple years.

We also had a chance to briefly speak with Mount Union senior running back phenom Nate Kmic, who can’t even explain himself why other teams have trouble tackling him (aside from crediting his offensive line). Let me be honest: if the Mount Union offensive line blocked for unathletic 5’9”, 160-pound me, maybe I’d average two or three yards per carry — not eight. Kmic is modest, but I know, like all of you, that he has a talent that can’t easily be measured — especially since he comes across as unimposing when you meet him in street clothes for the first time.

The interview session was a good time — and a chance for me to confirm that Pat Coleman is the equivalent of “Norm” from “Cheers” in Salem (except, without the alcoholic intake on a perpetual basis and much thinner). He might be able to run for mayor around here, although Coach Kehres might be able to run a close race against him.

The daytime hours closed with both teams practicing. I won’t get into specifics about what the teams did on the field as the practices are not for public consumption. However, I was able to place faces with a lot of the names that play major roles in Division III Football on the sidelines, including Selection Committee Chair Dick Kaiser and many of the Committee members. It was also great to see a man I interviewed after the Warhawks’ win last year, former head coach Bob Berezowitz, who stays very much involved with Whitewater Athletics (that’s a good thing with his wisdom surrounding the team to this day). We all braved the rain on the sidelines in 50-degree temperatures to watch the teams prepare, and there were plenty of stories being shared by everyone. The weather today was not as bad as the weather we experienced during the 2007 Stagg Bowl (which was about ten degrees colder with a more persistent rain), but it also provides a preview of the weather forecasters believe we will see this Saturday (my big ears can’t wait).

So, Thursday at the Stagg Bowl isn’t so much about the families and the fans as it is about the teams, the media and the NCAA role players that helped to get us to this point this season. Now that today’s practices are over, we will move into a transition point — tonight’s Gagliardi Trophy presentation reception — when families and fans begin to become more integral in the process. Mount Union quarterback Greg Micheli will receive the honor — no surprise there as his play on the field and grades and service off the field are tremendous feats. I’ll discuss this ceremony more later. In the meantime, it’s time to get ready for the reception — but all in all, I just wanted to say that today’s experiences have made me understand a bit more that a lot of people care a lot about the promotion of Division III Football and the values it promotes. I felt part of a bigger family today based on the work we do in Salem — and I’ve been treated like family all day.

Sideline Guy: The Road (Sky) to Salem

I’m Frank Rossi. For those who don’t know me, please let me introduce myself. Since 1995, I have been a play-by-play commentator for the Union College Fighting Dutchmen, and over the past few years, I’ve been a contributor to D3Sports.com. In 2007, I was called in at the last minute to work the sidelines for the NCAA.com/D3Football.com broadcast of the Stagg Bowl. It was an interesting experience, driving eight hours from New York City to Roanoke, VA, with two hours to spare before our pregame show airtime, working outside for five hours in 40-degree temperatures and getting to watch what many people think was one of the biggest upsets in Stagg Bowl history from field level. It’s an experience I still cherish, not because I was rooting for either team, but because the atmosphere was electric and the event lived up to the years of hype I had heard from many fans.

The only letdown in 2007 was that I spent a total of 24 hours in the Salem/Roanoke area, half of which was consumed sleeping after the game was over and five hours were on the air. I asked Pat Coleman if I could renew my role as sideline commentator for this year’s game, but on one condition: that I could enjoy the entire Stagg Bowl experience. Pat agreed, and I’m writing this blog entry from my flight from Fort Lauderdale Airport to Washington-Dulles Airport. In a few hours, Pat will meet me, and we’ll begin the 3 1/2-hour trek to Roanoke.

Among the events that I am looking forward to are the awarding of the Gagliardi Trophy, meeting the teams and coaches, meeting the families of the players and enjoying the area that has become the long-time home of the Stagg Bowl. As the week and weekend continue, I’ll update you with the activities in which I partake for those of you that can’t make it to Salem for the first couple days — or who unfortunately can’t make it at all.

Let me end this entry with my take on this year’s game as I head into the conclusion of the first leg of my trip to Salem. Yes, it’s a rematch of the same teams for the fourth straight Stagg Bowl — and that fact is getting a lot of play among Division III Football fans. However, what people are forgetting is that UW-Whitewater beat Mount Union in 2007. No matter how hot Mount Union has come into and through the playoffs this year, they still haven’t dethroned the defending National Champions. In many ways, for the first time in this heated rivalry, the pressure is on the Purple Raiders. Sure, my belief is that Whitewater has had more trouble than Mount Union in the playoffs to this point, but the score is still zero-zero right now until we kick things off Saturday.

Am I disappointed with the rematch? Initially I was concerned — but the more I have thought about it, the more I realize that these two teams deserve to be playing in front of a national crowd this year. We have a playoff system to force the teams to earn their path to a championship — instead of basing it to a large degree on teams’ reputations. I’d rather have this rematch than have a dissatisfied taste in my mouth after the fact that the winner might not REALLY be the best team in the land.

This should be an exciting and fun week. I hope you join me as I update you on my experiences at least once a day — maybe more if time allows. Feel free to comment with any Salem stories, recommendations on what I should do with my down time this week, or assessments on the big game, and I’ll try to respond as I can.