I’ve been asked this question more this year than any other, and it usually takes one of a couple of forms:
Isn’t it boring if the same team wins all the time?
Don’t you hate that Mount Union wins every year?
Is it boring? Ehh, probably a little bit.
Do I hate it? Nah, not at all. We’re watching one of the greatest dynasties of our day. It’s not like Mount Union 2002 and Mount Union 2005 have anything in common. Each year is a little different.
However, what I don’t like in Division III football is when we enter the season with Mount Union’s championship being a foregone conclusion. Unfortunately, it looks like 2007 is shaping up to be one of those years. Mount Union loses a key piece in Justen Stickley, but the Purple Raiders have proven that offensive linemen are replaceable and Greg Micheli returns, as does Nate Kmic and Pierre Garcon.
Everywhere else you look, teams are losing key pieces. UW-Whitewater loses its coach, its quarterback, three of its four starting defensive linemen, its No. 1 receiver. Capital loses the only quarterback they’ve had during this run of impressive seasons. St. John Fisher loses the best running back in school history and its top tackler. And those are just a few of the key names on the list.
So this is the challenge I throw out to the other 233 Division III teams. Show us something, please. Give us something to be excited about. Move your game to the next level. Otherwise fans outside of Alliance will be hitting the snooze button and waiting for 2008.
Or 2009.
The nice thing about the NEFC is its contribution to the calculations for the Pool C bid allocations. After “doing the math”, the NEFC is responsible for one of the Pool C bids that we receive.
Let us thank the 16-team NEFC for selecting its best team thru its NEFC Championship Playoff Games and donating “its Pool C” bid to the pool of more qualified Pool C contenders. 🙂
mainjack – with ref to your Dec 28th comment about DIII players being what they are at MUC…..I don’t disagree with you, but give MUC a little credit. Over the past 3 years I have seen several D1 AA teams in action (Richmond, JMU, William & Mary, VMI and Norfolk State) and I truely believe the Mount Union team this year could have stayed with any of these teams and chances are they would beat them.
Ralph, Repete, et al –
Here is something you might find interesting. As you probably know I run a statistical rating system for D3 teams, and it is backed by an ability to accurately predict most of the following week’s games (like 75-79%).
I ran a 7 year average (1999-2006) of all teams in Division III to see who is historically very strong. The following is a list of the top 10 D3 teams on average from 99-06 (keep in mind some teams are averaged over a shorter time frame because they just started programs):
1. Mount Union 71
2. Linfield 60
3. St Johns 59
4. Whitewater 54
5. Lacrosse 53
6. UMHB 50
7. Ohio Northern 49
8. Hardin Simmons 49
9. Stevens Point 48
10. Pac Lutheran 48
The difference between the ratings cannot necessarily be used to estimate point differential. Rather it is an indication of overall power and consistency at the top. However you can use it by the following list:
A 3 point differential gives a 65% chance of winning to the higher rated team on a neutral field.
7 points – 70%
14 points – 90%
30 + points – 99%
Here are the top East teams
1. Rowan 46
2. Ithaca 38
3. Springfield 37
4. Brockport 36
5. Widener 33
6. Union 33
7. Cortland 33
8. Hobart 33
9. RPI 32
10. Wilkes 32
So yes, 1999-2006 the East is much lower rated than the West. However the East and South are pretty close, as there is a big drop-off after Hardin Simmons.
The highest ranked NEFC team, you ask?
Curry 19 – which is roughly equivalent to Kalamazoo, Hartwick, and Grove City.
I love looking at this stuff. It’s fun to see how teams would likely stack up in a different conference alignment. If you have any specific team questions fire away.
Some follow up information. This is what I was talking about with the East producing some very good teams in 2006:
St John Fisher rated out at 62 (3rd in the nation) in 2006
Springfield 55
Ithaca 49
Cortland,
Interesting stuff. It ought to be noted that Linfield is 0-2 vs. St. John’s during that span, including one game in McMinnville.
On another note, I was surfing around and went to the cortlandfootball site where the shots of the stadium blew me away. Awesome setup. Gotta like the red and white …
Cortland, I appreciated your stating the statistical probablilty, 3pts being 65%. Is that your standard deviation?
One other quesition…from 1999 to 2006 is 8 seasons. Did you tabulate 7 or 8 seasons?
I was curious. Where are Bridgewater and Trinity TX? The West is brutal. The North has the OAC? What is the highest North Region non-OAC team?
Sometime in the offseason, could you post the entire list?
Good point – 1999 to 2006 is indeed 8 seasons.
Bridgewater VA rated out at 41 on average, with a high of 59 in 2001. Trinity TX rated at 46…but have had a lower rating 4 consecutive seasons. Hmmm.
Yeah, the OAC rules the North.
From 1999 to 2006, the highest rated team in the North outside of the OAC is Wheaton (46). On average, they would finish behind Mt Union, Ohio Northern, John Carroll, and Baldwin Wallace. Capital is closing fast on all of them.
As far as I can tell the West is the nastiest region by far, but the North has Mt Union who is the nastiest team by far.
To answer your question it is roughly a standard deviation. In strict statistical terms, it is not. I did a breakdown of ratings vs. probability of victory, and after some smoothing that is what I came up with.
Cortland, the figures for the OAC are interesting. Can you tell if they are a product of the MUC-pull or would they be appreciably different (higher or lower) without any MUC games? Let me restate that question. Does this formula boost the OAC because MUC is a member or is sufficient non-MUC inter-conference and/or playoff data to give similar results? Thanks.
Wow, that’s an interesting question. It is one I have been aware of since I started doing these systems. I have strived to ensure one team could not pull the remainder of a conference up. However when Ohio Northern beats Mt Union as in 2005, and Capital plays them as tough as anyone twice in 2006, those teams prove themselves.
My guess is the OAC teams stand on their own due to performance outside of conference. John Carroll winning the East bracket a few years back, Capital’s performance the past few seasons, as examples.
However it is testable. I’m going to eliminate MUC games from 2006 and run the ratings for that season only. I’ll let you know what I come up with.
Ralph,
Not much changed. The OAC teams were still near the top. Ohio Northern fell a little (probably because they had a win vs. MUC erased), and Capital actually came up a bit.
Thanks, Cortland. That makes sense.