Immediate Thoughts on Week 9

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What a difference a week makes.

Last week at this time I was shocked at Chris Sharpe’s performance for Springfield against St. John Fisher and shocked at Susquehanna upsetting Delaware Valley. Just seven days later Springfield gets held to single digits by Ithaca and Delaware Valley looked down right giddy after a gritty win over King’s.

And then there are things that never change. Mount Union 38 Capital 12.

I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot of questions the next two days over how the Empire 8 and CCIW will sort out their three-way tie at the top, should they have one two weeks from now. I don’t know how the Empire 8 will break the tie for their AQ since every conference does it differently. Thanks to the North Central website, here is how the CCIW would handle things.

The Cardinals (6-2/4-1) sit atop the CCIW standings along with the Vikings (5-3/4-1) and Wheaton College (7-1/4-1). Should all three win out, the tiebreaker is point differential between the three schools. Augustana edged Wheaton 17-14 and Wheaton defeated North Central 20-7. The Cardinals’ 27-point victory gives them the edge in point differential.”

Wheaton (Ill.) would still have a good shot at a Pool C bid as they have one-loss and a 10.571 Quality of Win Index (QOWI) coming into this week. Augustana is now just 5-3 in region and will probably miss the playoffs. If you’re a Vikings fan, you’ll need IWU or Carthage to upset North Centralin the last two weeks. That would create a two-way tie at the top between Augustana and Wheaton, with the Vikings winning the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Teams that helped their playoff cause

Well, Concordia (Wis.) for starters. They clinched the Illinois-Badger Football Championship and its AQ today. Congratulations to Coach Gabrielsen and the rest of the Falcons for being the first ones into the party. Mt. St. Joseph pretty much wrapped up another HCAC title by beating Defiance. Wilkes can do the same in the MAC by winning either of its last two games, thanks to Del Val beating King’s today.

—
NOTE: In my haste to post this, I overlooked three other teams that locked up bids with wins today. St. Norbert clinched the MWC and its automatic bid by beating Beloit. Even if the Green Knights stumble against Illinois College next week, they would finish the MWC season with a one-game advantage on their closest competitors. The MWC wraps up its season a week early.

As best I can tell, Occidental clinched the SCIAC with their come-from-behind win over Cal Lutheran. The Tigers now have a lead of two games or more on every team but Redlands (3-1 in conference). But Oxy already beat the Bulldogs and only has one conference game left. The worst Oxy can do is finish tied with Redlands and they have the head-to-head tie-breaker advantage.

And Wesley came as close to clinching a Pool B bid as you can by beating Salisbury 13-10. The Wolverines wrapped up the ACFC title and, more importantly for the playoffs, finished their regional season 5-0. The last two games against Chowan (D-II) and Morrisville State (D-III Provisional) won’t impact the record the NCAA Committee looks at for the playoffs.
—

Wartburg rallied from a 10-point deficit to beat Buena Vista in overtime and avoid that critical second loss. Considering that the Knights were ranked 10th in the first regional rankings, they may be on the fringe of Pool C consideration as it is. And beating Cornell and Dubuque in the final two weeks won’t boost their QOWI that much. Speaking of teams with one loss, here’s what we’re left with.

Hardin- Simmons
Wheaton
Two of St. John Fisher, Ithaca and Springfield
Franklin
Wartburg
Bethel
Rowan
Capital
UW-LaCrosse

Dropped off: Alfred, Sul Ross State, Defiance, Wooster

Added: Springfield

Special thanks to “TecmoBowler” on the message board for doing the leg work here. He also broke down the biggest games left for each team before this week.

That’s 10 teams for seven spots, assuming the Pool B teams don’t take a Pool C bid. I still think that we’re going to have a two-loss Pool C team in the playoffs when it’s all said and done.

The team that best fits that profile right now is Baldwin-Wallace. The Yellow Jackets are the only team in the regional rankings with two-losses outside of those that need to win their conference to get in. If they can beat Capital in the final game, they would have an edge over the Crusaders. And not getting shelled by Mount Union looks good, too.

Teams that hurt their cause

Aside from the teams who picked up that dreaded second loss today, Rowan tops this list with its overtime loss to Montclair State. The Profs now either have to beat Cortland State next week to take over first in the NJAC or could miss the playoffs entirely. What a turnaround for a national title contender. For that matter, what a turnaround for Montclair State who got mashed 41-3 last week by Cortland. My unsung hero of the day — Vin Doffont who kicked two field goals over 40-yards in the Red Hawks win. If the weather in North Jersey is like what it was in Northeast PA, that’s very impressive.

I know Rowan’s offense has been subjected to a lot of criticism this year. But the Profs’ defense today gave up a 78-yard pass for one score, a nine-play 91-yard drive for another, a 43-yard drive in the final two minutes to allow the tying field goal and a score in overtime.

At a glance, it looks like Alma is out of the MIAA hunt. The best they could do is finish in a three-way tie with Olivet and Hope at 5-2 and the Comets and Dutch both already beat the Scots. How much of the MIAA title will be on the line next week when the Comets and Dutch play? Olivet! Let’s Hope we get a good game (ducks tomato).

108 thoughts on “Immediate Thoughts on Week 9”

  1. allsky7 –
    Well I can tell you that unlike everything else at Ferrum Bassett has not changed. About time Ferrum got another win. Maybe they will pull out the final two games, knock CNU out of the playoffs and finish with some fight. Oh before I forget, why is CNU so inconsistent? Averett may knock em off afterall.

  2. Thanks Dlippiel! I liked Union to win the LL originally. With their receiver back I’m thinking they are the favorite again heads up with Hobart. Union is in a must-win situation. Hobart on the other hand could get into Pool C with 1 loss. In fact I would bet money that they would get a bid based on the current standings across the East.

  3. You guys make me laugh. Union never left. They give up their first game to Springfield which knocks them out of the Top 25 rankings for weeks (that makes a ton of sense).

    They have the best coach in the league with John Audino. The guy is 108-34-0 in just 14 years. He led the Dutchmen to the NCAA Div. III Playoffs, the NCAA Div. III Quarterfinals, and to the NCAA Div. III Second Round. This does not include 4 ECAC Northwest Championships, and who could forget last year’s LIBERTY LEAGUE CHAMPIONS. Maybe we should give the Coach of the Year award to Mike Cragg again after he gets his first defeat of the year from the Dutchmen, the second defeat by Union in two years. This way he at least gets to put something positive in next year’s team prospectus.

  4. I think there’s all the East Coast chatter now because it always seems to dry up after the semifinals … 🙂

  5. I find it amusing that carnegie mellon’s quality of wins rating is so high. It is higher than cortland who has beaten three teams with winning records…….funny. At least division III allows some questions to be answered on the field with a very good (but not perfect) playoff system.

  7. RunFerrum,

    I actually walked through the GFCC in Bassett a few weeks ago before the Ferrum/Maryville game. The place hasn’t changed a bit.
    As for CNU, I have no clue. That’s the million dollar question for most coaches. Trying to figure out how to motivate and get kids prepared (mentally and physically) week to week is a huge challenge. They obviously have a talented football team. Could CNU have been overlooking NCW with Averett coming up?
    Wouldn’t it be fun if the ODAC ends up in a five way tie as Keith layed out on the ODAC board? Ok…with BC’s dominance in recent years, it may not be so much fun for them. 🙂 Ok… so maybe W&L is the only one that would consider it fun because after all the tie breakers, they would get the NCAA bid. (I think) While it is unlikely that all the things will fall into place for this to happen, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Of course, I’m sure W&L would rather take care of business Sat. against E&H and claim the ODAC outright.

  8. Keith,

    Guess you chose the correct game to be at this past weekend. Looks like my Crusaders (Capital, not UMHB) pretty much got it handed to them by MUC. I’m man enough to admit I was wrong. I just thought sure it would be a better game than it was.

    I just hope we get through BW in a few weeks and get into the playoffs.

  9. IC, Springfield, Rowan, SJF are all in a must win situation. UC and Hobart took care of IC and Cortland pretty easy last year. This week will separate many of the NY schools. Not sure which game to go see R vs. C or UC vs. Bart.

  10. Been away for a few days, just a quick and biased comment on the D3 poll/rankings: Apparently the pollsters now view the SJF 24 point win over Ithaca as a “what have you done for me lately victory”. IC jumped Fisher in the poll by 4 spots and alot of votes (238-162) by beating Springfield. SJF didnt exactly beat a good team this week, but they did do so 64-0.

    Lets hear it Bombers…..lol

  12. What a weekend this is going to be. Heading out to western NY to watch the Hobart Union game will be as exciting as D3 football gets…at least for me. Earlier in the week I stated that Union is coming into this game as a big underdog. I think I was too quick to put the Dutchmen on the bottom looking up. They are very very dangerous on O now with Angiletta back in the lineup. I honestly feel that this is anyones game to win with both teams playing at their respecive peaks right now. Many have questioned the Statesmens regard because of some of their narrow victories, but I don’t buy it. With Hobarts victory over a decent Alfred team last week they are clearly a top 25 football team. I think that the Union D has the ability to shut down (at least enough for a Dutchmen victory) the Statesmens O, but I don’t think the Statesmen can do the same in return. If Marotti makes few mistakes the Dutchmen will role. Prediction: Hobart 24 Union 35

  14. Yes, Union will take it this weekend. dlippiel’s analysis is right on target. Hobart’s D won’t be able to shut down Union’s offense which is at full strength for the first time this season. I think Union’s D made a statement by shutting out St. Lawrence….St.Lawrence’s only score came late in the game against Union’s second string D.
    Will be making the trek out from the west coast to watch my kid finish up his collegiate career.

  15. bart beat cortland by only 1 pt last season in the ncaas so i wouldn’t exactly call it an “easy win”.

    bart has enough d to shut down the u. they have lived by the bend don’t break all season and have always come up big when they had to.

    union has had trouble in the turnover dept and with the usual bad upstate weather expected this weekend, will continue to struggle with ball control. that plus the fact that bart has done a great job in terms of TOP will keep the u’s offensive stars on the sideline.

  16. I guess we shall see labart96. I wish both teams good luck and even though I clearly am a Dutchmen fan I will route for the winner in the NCAA tourney. Just to mention, turnovers were a problem when Union had only one reciever to throw to. Arcidicano does not fumble, plus Angiletta cannot be covered one on one which opens up Twitchell, and Marotti is even running the ball now. That is a lot of options to stop. If Hobart can stop that O then they will clearly deserve to win and represent the LL in the tourney…and I will route them on.

  17. I’m terribly biased, but I’m quite sure few Union fans would call their game against IC an “easy win” last year. IC led late in the third quarter until a kickoff bounced off a Bomber helmet, and miraculously shotgunned directly back to the kicker. A touchdown later, UC took the lead, and Union had a late score after an IC turnover.

    I give tons of credit to a talented Union team, but it was no rout.

  18. allsky7,
    Does my Randolph-Macon team have a shot at the 5-way ODAC tie? Man, my ’98 team could of hung with Mt Union.

  20. Who called the IC Union game a rout? It was a hard fought game that could have gone either way. Both teams deserved tons of credit and it was a shame someone had to lose. There was a ton of respect gained from that game by fans and players alike. I don’t think anyone routs IC, or Union for that matter.

  21. TecmoBowler,

    I absolutely agree with you that last years Union-IC game was anything but a route, but for the record when Union’s kicker bounced the ball off of the IC player and directly into the hands of a Union player, it was during the 4th quarter and the score was 41-41. A few plays later IC intercepted Union’s QB at their 29 yard line, so the play had no real effect on the outcome of the game.

    Union then went on to put up another 14 points to seal the victory, and it was certainly a very tough battle until that last Union’s TD.

  22. JimRome: Sounds as if you have a bug up your pooper regarding Mike Cragg. I’m sure Cragg had nothing to do with Union’s absence from the top rankings. He’d have the class to tell even you, that Union is a very tough tem, great college with a deep tradition. I’m not armed w/every detail of every stat, but like the Union coach, his resume is very impressive. He’s the winningest coach in Hobart history, has made the playoffs in 3 or 4 of the past 5 or 6 years and is currently undefeated. He has won the Liberty League title, a few times I believe. He really does not need to prove anything and certainly does not need a win this weekend to enhance his “prospectus”. I hope for Union’s sake, you are not involved in recruiting. Did you get cut by Coach Cragg? Forced to play intramurals? Get a grip my boy!

  23. pumkinhead,

    Fraid not. R-MC & CUA would be left out under the 5 way scenario. I wouldn’t stress too much about it. 🙂

  24. Repete:
    “I think there’s all the East Coast chatter now because it always seems to dry up after the semifinals”

    Ouch. Burn.

    Way I see it, East is the second-strongest region this year (judging by depth of playoff eligibles) after the West.

    MSJ and Concordia (Wis.) are the two and three right now in the North. Nothing against those teams this year, they’ve earned it, but rarely has an HCAC or IBFC team been thought of so highly, which means it’s a down year for the CCIW, NCAC and whoever else normally puts out a top-flight North team.

    Pumkinhead,
    “Does my Randolph-Macon team have a shot at the 5-way ODAC tie? Man, my ‘98 team could of hung with Mt. Union. ”

    You couldn’t even have hung with the ’97 R-MC team … but I’m biased. 😉

  25. Last weekend union looked great against st. lawrence. Earlier in the year union could never put a team away, letting them come back all game long. With Angiletta back it opens up the whole offense. Audino can now get back to his preseason game plan and union will take care of hobart with ease. Hobart’s defense will not match up with the power of the Union offense. Not to mention, Union also has the best back in d3 football, Tom A…. Prediction this weekend- Union 31, Hobart-14.

  26. Nice to see the LL getting some respect. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens this year.

    Score by Quarters 1 2 3 4 Score
    —————– — — — — —–
    Ithaca………….. 16 7 18 0 – 41 Record: (8-3)
    Union College……. 7 14 13 21 – 55 Record: (11-0)

  27. jimrome – lets see whose playing on the 18th this year but do have to admit Union’s combination of winning tradition and academic ranking is impressive. What do others think about the Cortland and Rowan match-up? Any predictions?

  28. NEfootball: We will have to see who is on the field on the 18th. I think Cortland is going to come out on top of Rowan. They have a strong program and winning tradition. Rowan could come out strong after last week. If Cortland can hold them off and score first that could break them. The Liberty League keeps getting stronger ever year, and does not get the respect it deserves. I would put Union and Hobart up against anyone from any conference.

    Statesmen78: Your coach is good but not great. He can always go back to coaching high school football where he started. Audino played at Notre Dame and has coached at the college level his whole career. Oh I will get a grip – on the champagne bottle to celebrate Union’s win this weekend.

  30. jim_rome

    Tell Union or Hobart. Mt. Union is looking for future Opponets for week one. And who cares where someone when to college and played football. Some of the best coaches in sports never really made it in college because of grades, too small, injuries and so on. Lay off the coaches.

  31. Coach Cragg and Coach Audino are both great coaches. Both have been heading up their school’s programs for the past 12+ yrs (Audino for 14 at Union, Cragg 12 at Hobart) and have similar W/L records and winning %s (Audino’s being slightly higher due to his 2 extra seasons over Cragg).

    Both have taken their teams to 4 NCAA appearances and won ECAC bowls and have about an even # of league titles to their name (Cragg has 5 not sure about Audino, but it’s probably similar) during their tenures.

    Obviously with a moniker like “LaBart” I am biased, I’d give the edge to Cragg b/c when Audino became HC Union was still a perennial East power, while Hobart was a consistent sub .500 club prior to his taking over as head coach. What Cragg has done with Hobart over the past few seasons has been pretty remarkable.

  32. I don’t have a problem with someone respectfully promoting their team while discussing on this website, but I think some have taken it a little too far. I think both coaches Audino and Cragg are great and have done remarkable jobs throughout their careers. But it sounds like to me some have some serious animosity toward Hobart and its coaching staff in particular. Both team’s success over the past several years is a testament to that. Let’s just let the talking be done on the field Saturday. I’m confident that it will be a great game; a tough fought battle like it is every year. And like someone said earlier, how does where u went to school or where you got your start determine how good of a coach you are?

  33. jimjearsa: Union will see you in the semi-finals. I hope the game is before grades come out for the term at Mt. Union. Half of the team will be academically ineligible at that point. If you would like me to double space this so you can read this let me know. I tried to use 8th grade grammar for you so you can follow along. The Mt. Union football team should have some Hooked On Phonics in their lockeroom.

    I will leave the coaches alone for now and let the Union players do my talking.

  34. now that’s what i’m talking about – let’s hear it mt Union fans – how dare jim_rome disrespect your school like that!

  35. jim_rome: You have no right to say anything negative about MT. Union the school or its football program. They have dominated for too long and have gained way to much respect. Leave your personal feelings about their players and the academic prowess of the school out of discussions. And I really hope your affiliation with the Union College community doesn’t go any farther then you being a fan, because I think it would be same to say you are embarrassing a lot of people who are involved with that school. Take it easy, there are so many great games in the next two week’s to be bothering with silly things like this.

  36. While I am a diehard Union fan, I have to say that I don’t quite know where jim_rome is coming from with his vitriolic comments, and I am sure that no one associated with Union’s football team would much care for them either. In this instance, I think I would prefer to stand on the sideline with the fans from Bart.

  37. I am hoping for another repeat performance from Union this year. Last year was some of the most exciting football I’ve seen played at Union. I’m expecting Union to win out this year and host another home playoff game like we did last year with Ithaca. It may be bittersweet this year because we are losing so many seniors to graduation and it may be a few years until we are on top again and hosting playoff games. The Ithaca game was great and the Rowan game in the snow was rad. A few less turnovers and who knows how far we would have made it. At full strength finally we are going to make another strong run into the playoffs. The only lousy thing is the new president at Union has banned alcohol at the games. CRAP! That’s tradition man! Anyway, a sober crowd will still back our men. GO DUTCH!

  38. This has become very entertaining. I guess there is no interest in the Rowan v Cortland game. Both H and U are 2 great schools who unfortunately run out of muscle come the 2nd round of the NCAAs.Jimerome way to lite a fire. For some reason I’m guessing you could care less about who earns a victory this weekend.

  39. jim_rome

    You might want to look at a few teams before the semi-finals. You not ony trashed Mt. Union today, but you also trashed another D3 dynasty. They may not of won any Championships, but they got to 5 Stagg Bowl games in a 7 year span. I don’t recall seeing your team there. I wish your team the best of luck. They will need it because of your mouth.

  40. jimjearsa: that is the best you have? Predictable, but I would expect nothing less from a Mt. Union fan. Hey the BALCO truck just arrived at your practice facility, and Victor Conti wants to know when he is getting paid. You better help with the injections because I am not sure the players can figure out how much is in a cc.

    NEfootball: If you had clue, Union vs. Hobart has more at stake in terms of the playoffs than Rowan vs. Cortland. Rowan already has a loss against a team that is going to end up around 4-6.

    tlm: you call yourself a Union fan, and then want to go stand on the sidelines with Hobart. You were probably a Yankees fan, and cheered the Red Sox when they won the world series. Let me guess you will have a Hobart jacket on during the game, then when Union wins you will take it off to display your Union t-shirt.

    bart52: sorry for being so hard. Did not know you are such an emotional guy. We are talking about football. If you cannot take it you might want to see if the cross country team is running in a meet this weekend. They have not been the same since you left.

  41. jim_rome

    I’m not going to get into this on here with you. You better win the national Championship so you can keep trashing people on here. Because if your team gets beat. You will be destroyed on here. Unless you hide after a loss. Stop making statements of steroids and other crap you can’t prove. Grow up and show this site and the people, players, coaches and teams the respect they all have earned.

  43. jim_rome-
    Very entertaining! Chalk me up as one who is tired of hearing about Mt Union, tired of hearing how great larry K is, tired of hearing about their 200 player roster, tired of hearing about them beating someone 67-7, and tired of seeing them in the Stagg Bowl.

  44. tim I am right with you. I am a diehard Dutchmen fan to the end, but too all, jim-rome does not represent Union. Anyone who would make these ignorant, classless comments does not represent Union football or d3 fottball in any way. I think this is just a kid trying to stir up the pot. So let us just ignore him and enjoy some great football between two excellent schools. LETS GO U!

  46. Wow…with a name like jim_rome, I wouldnt expect so much un-originality…GET A LIFE and get the heck off this blog you ‘never were’.

    Let me guess, you were the guy who always wished you had a chance to play but never quite were good enough and now you are living vicariously through this site as a ‘blogball player’.

    I hereby apologize to the staff from d3football.com and all the legitimate users of this forum for stooping to ‘rome’s’ level…but I could not help it.

  47. I don’t think Rome is or ever has been affiliated w/Union. I checked the ciriculum and found no special ed programs for the emotionally disrturbed. More likely, Romie boy got his GED while in prison and is light headed from donating his plasma 3 times a week to make ends meet. However, despite his obviously low self esteem, he is amusing.

  48. Hey Pat, Keith……can you make jim_rome go away just like you made D3knowitall go away in the past? If not, I’ll have to put my Swarthmore education (undergrad that is) to use. Technology is amazing when you’ve got the smarts!!

    I’m not a big fan of Mount Ohio State Union either, but I respect it and would never trash their program. Challenge….yes. Trash….no!!

    jim_rome – you’re about as affiliated with Union as I am….not at all. You’d better pray that Union does not face Mount Union or you’ll have more issues than you six month winter or your burning the coffee on your midnight shift at Cumberland Farms!!

    Time to go and make more money…..the year is slowly coming to an end and I’ve got to pile it in now before the Dems raise our taxes in 2007 (don’t worry jim_rome…….your minimum wage is going up!!!).

  49. jim_rome – when your mother and father got divorced did that mean that they were no longer brother and sister as well??

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