What a difference a week makes.
Last week at this time I was shocked at Chris Sharpe’s performance for Springfield against St. John Fisher and shocked at Susquehanna upsetting Delaware Valley. Just seven days later Springfield gets held to single digits by Ithaca and Delaware Valley looked down right giddy after a gritty win over King’s.
And then there are things that never change. Mount Union 38 Capital 12.
I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot of questions the next two days over how the Empire 8 and CCIW will sort out their three-way tie at the top, should they have one two weeks from now. I don’t know how the Empire 8 will break the tie for their AQ since every conference does it differently. Thanks to the North Central website, here is how the CCIW would handle things.
The Cardinals (6-2/4-1) sit atop the CCIW standings along with the Vikings (5-3/4-1) and Wheaton College (7-1/4-1). Should all three win out, the tiebreaker is point differential between the three schools. Augustana edged Wheaton 17-14 and Wheaton defeated North Central 20-7. The Cardinals’ 27-point victory gives them the edge in point differential.â€
Wheaton (Ill.) would still have a good shot at a Pool C bid as they have one-loss and a 10.571 Quality of Win Index (QOWI) coming into this week. Augustana is now just 5-3 in region and will probably miss the playoffs. If you’re a Vikings fan, you’ll need IWU or Carthage to upset North Centralin the last two weeks. That would create a two-way tie at the top between Augustana and Wheaton, with the Vikings winning the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Teams that helped their playoff cause
Well, Concordia (Wis.) for starters. They clinched the Illinois-Badger Football Championship and its AQ today. Congratulations to Coach Gabrielsen and the rest of the Falcons for being the first ones into the party. Mt. St. Joseph pretty much wrapped up another HCAC title by beating Defiance. Wilkes can do the same in the MAC by winning either of its last two games, thanks to Del Val beating King’s today.
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NOTE: In my haste to post this, I overlooked three other teams that locked up bids with wins today. St. Norbert clinched the MWC and its automatic bid by beating Beloit. Even if the Green Knights stumble against Illinois College next week, they would finish the MWC season with a one-game advantage on their closest competitors. The MWC wraps up its season a week early.
As best I can tell, Occidental clinched the SCIAC with their come-from-behind win over Cal Lutheran. The Tigers now have a lead of two games or more on every team but Redlands (3-1 in conference). But Oxy already beat the Bulldogs and only has one conference game left. The worst Oxy can do is finish tied with Redlands and they have the head-to-head tie-breaker advantage.
And Wesley came as close to clinching a Pool B bid as you can by beating Salisbury 13-10. The Wolverines wrapped up the ACFC title and, more importantly for the playoffs, finished their regional season 5-0. The last two games against Chowan (D-II) and Morrisville State (D-III Provisional) won’t impact the record the NCAA Committee looks at for the playoffs.
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Wartburg rallied from a 10-point deficit to beat Buena Vista in overtime and avoid that critical second loss. Considering that the Knights were ranked 10th in the first regional rankings, they may be on the fringe of Pool C consideration as it is. And beating Cornell and Dubuque in the final two weeks won’t boost their QOWI that much. Speaking of teams with one loss, here’s what we’re left with.
Hardin- Simmons
Wheaton
Two of St. John Fisher, Ithaca and Springfield
Franklin
Wartburg
Bethel
Rowan
Capital
UW-LaCrosse
Dropped off: Alfred, Sul Ross State, Defiance, Wooster
Added: Springfield
Special thanks to “TecmoBowler” on the message board for doing the leg work here. He also broke down the biggest games left for each team before this week.
That’s 10 teams for seven spots, assuming the Pool B teams don’t take a Pool C bid. I still think that we’re going to have a two-loss Pool C team in the playoffs when it’s all said and done.
The team that best fits that profile right now is Baldwin-Wallace. The Yellow Jackets are the only team in the regional rankings with two-losses outside of those that need to win their conference to get in. If they can beat Capital in the final game, they would have an edge over the Crusaders. And not getting shelled by Mount Union looks good, too.
Teams that hurt their cause
Aside from the teams who picked up that dreaded second loss today, Rowan tops this list with its overtime loss to Montclair State. The Profs now either have to beat Cortland State next week to take over first in the NJAC or could miss the playoffs entirely. What a turnaround for a national title contender. For that matter, what a turnaround for Montclair State who got mashed 41-3 last week by Cortland. My unsung hero of the day — Vin Doffont who kicked two field goals over 40-yards in the Red Hawks win. If the weather in North Jersey is like what it was in Northeast PA, that’s very impressive.
I know Rowan’s offense has been subjected to a lot of criticism this year. But the Profs’ defense today gave up a 78-yard pass for one score, a nine-play 91-yard drive for another, a 43-yard drive in the final two minutes to allow the tying field goal and a score in overtime.
At a glance, it looks like Alma is out of the MIAA hunt. The best they could do is finish in a three-way tie with Olivet and Hope at 5-2 and the Comets and Dutch both already beat the Scots. How much of the MIAA title will be on the line next week when the Comets and Dutch play? Olivet! Let’s Hope we get a good game (ducks tomato).
If they win out is there any chance the E8 gets 3 in with the possibilities that the LL and MAC runner ups having 2 losses and Rowan facing a win or stay home situation?
I think that’s a possibility, yes.
I know there’s no official rule that says the NCAA has to pick East region teams for the nominally East bracket, but I could see them taking three teams to fill this one out.
But Rowan has to lose first and IC and SJF have to win tough games first.
Carnegie Mellon beat Washington in overtime 10-7.
Yep. They could be on that list of teams who’ve helped their cause. Thiel is probably the last major “test” and they are 3-4 in region.
What are the chances that Bridgewater will make the playoffs as an at large bid with their win today over Washington and Lee
Bridgewater (Va.) falls in a long, LONG list of teams with two-loses who all need help.
My guess is that one 2-loss team will get in. I’d say Bridgewater’s chances are no better than maybe 5%.
Bridgewater has no chance as an at-large.
W&L and E&H will play for the ODAC AQ next week, basically.
If W&L (4-1 in ODAC now) beats E&H, they finish 5-1 in league play and win the AQ.
If E&H (3-1 in ODAC play right now) beats W&L, they would have to lose to Guilford to finish 4-2 in league play. They hold the tiebreakers over Bridgewater and W&L, who would also be 4-2.
Hampden-Sydney is 3-2 in league play with the R-MC game left, and Guilford is 2-2 with a home game against CUA and a road finale at E&H.
A four-way tie is possible if R-MC beats H-SC and Guilford beats E&H and CUA.
A five-way tie is possible if H-SC beats R-MC and Guilford beats E&H and CUA.
In both of those scenarios, E&H would have to beat W&L next week and Bridgewater would to beat both R-MC and Catholic.
As for who would take the AQ in four- and five-way scenarios, I would check the ODAC board for speculation.
But no ODAC team will sniff at at-large bid in any way, shape or form this season.
Wow. This is like the “Odds Makers” thing on PTI or something.
I’m even balding like Kornheiser. And his son and I went to the same school for a short period of time.
Next…chances that Keith listens to Bon Jovi on his drive to Jersey next week.
OriginalUpstate-
Not to turn this into Around the Horn, but I’m definitely buying 3 teams in for the E8 if the big 3 win out. Woody Page is selling on the basis of an outsider being invited in (Capital?).
Cortland had a tough day offensively. For the first time the absence of Alex Smith became obvious. On the positive side Ray Miles got banged up, made some mistakes, but kept his head in the game. TCNJ’s defense deserves respect. In my game preview last week I noted they were yielding only 2.6 yards per carry this season, and were among the top in the NJAC in sacks. If they had an offense, TCNJ would be one of the best teams in the NJAC. Everyone watching on the sidelines could tell it was just a matter of time before Cortland took over the game. Every TCNJ offensive possession was a disaster. Their offensive line doesn’t give the QB time, nor open any holes for Schoonover.
The Montclair-Rowan result seems surreal after last week’s Red Hawks performance. However not as surreal as last season’s William Paterson win over Rowan which shocked everyone. Rowan obviously has chinks in their armor this season despite the presence of Orihel. They remain in control of their own destiny – beat Cortland and William Paterson and the NJAC is their’s again.
The IC-Springfield result is not much of a surprise but the margin of victory sure is. It goes to show you that a solid defense with the proper scheme and excellent coaching can shut down a one dimensional offense no matter how good they are. Exactly the reason I cannot see Springfield winning the East bracket . Eventually a good defense is going to shut down their run game. Then what do they do?
Hobart apparently keeps getting better. They struggled early in the season against teams they should have hammered. Now they are playing their best ball of the season, and I have to believe they are going to beat Union for the LL title and go into the playoffs undefeated. Like Ithaca and Cortland, Hobart has excellent coaching which is capable of making the team better as the season progresses.
Gordon-
You haven’t referred to anyone as “Your Boy” yet. 🙂
CFB –
Bart seems to be making progress, but Union is still Union. 11/4 has been circled on Bart’s calendar since the schedule came out. Will need to play error free ball to beat the Dutch and take the LL title back.
Interesting side note: Alfred statistically beat Hobart in pretty much every major category today including total o, turnovers, etc. The only 2 areas Bart won was TOP and the most important stat of all – pts scored!
whoops – guess i should have read the fine print a little better!
“The two teams played a fairly even contest with Alfred outgaining Hobart 363-304. The difference proved to be turnovers. The Statesmen defense recorded three takeaways, while the Saxons had just two.”
QOW has been updated:
http://www.d3football.com/qow.php
8.625 is Bridgewater’s QOW. When you’re not even the first Bridgewater to come up in the QOW list, that’s a bad sign.
And now that Springfield took their nosedive……….Guess who is numero uno in the NCAA East region.
HOBART.
Well, for six days at least, until the Union litmus test.
Oh and this year, can the stars NOT align a rematch with Cortland.
Had to see the cardiologust after the last one.
Cardiologist 🙂
The good news is that Hobart and Cortland are far up the ladder right now and there are enough other teams in the area that you could avoid it in the first round at least.
Upstate:
I dont see SJF, IC and Pride all getting in unfortunately, while I do agree they are all locks if they win out. The tough pill to be swallowed maybe by IC if they lose the ‘CORTAGA’ game in a tough fought rivalry game. That will of course give them the dreaded second loss. As you pointed out in Post patterns, the Pride are virtually a lock to win-out and SJF has 2 weeks to rest up and hopefully not lay down like they did last year against Alfred.
Bottom line is that Ithaca isnt going to like watching the Pride play in November after stomping them in the Reg. SJF should beat AU and be in at 9-1 with a top 15 QOWI.
Union vs Hobart should be a heck of battle next weekend. Hobart has hit its stride after some inconsistency earlier in the season and once again, Union got well vs StL with 570 yards of offense (415 rushing) on a windy, rainy day in Schenectady. More importantly, Union had all of their key personnel on the field including all-american WR Steve Angiletta for the first time this season.
The last two years have been great games that determined the LL champion with one each going to Hobart in ’04 and Union in ’05. This year is the rubber match.
This will be the first time in the last 3 years that Hobart doesn’t come off a bye week to play Union having played a very tough Alfred team yesterday. Union had a bye last week and a relatively easy time vs the Saints yesterday.
Union will come into next week at Hobart as the underdog, no question…but… With Angiletta and Twitchell back, Union (even though it was against St L) never looked as good as they did yesterday. With Angiletta the offense opens up so much. I also liked Marotti running the ball. A healthy Dutchmen are a dangerous team and not one to be taken lightly by anyone.
I was at Reser Stadium yesterday, and after the surreal experience of watching the Beavs take down ‘SC, it was comforting to see that Linfield wrapped up winning season #51. So, of course I expected the whole world to be talking about that, and looking forward to the huge Linfield-Whitworth game next weekend. But no, its an endless sea of East Coast school acronyms, and comments like “A healthy Dutchmen are a dangerous team…” Are we British now?!? I feel like an idiot because it took me half an hour to make any sense out of D3Keith’s post about the ODAC. And just when I feel like I’m up to speed, pcole pops in and says there’s more than one Bridgewater…
So, what I want to know is: How many Bridgewaters are there, and are the ‘Kitties in if the they beat Whitworth and L&C? (hah! Us West Coasters know how to use acronyms too!)
LOL Go ‘Kitties!
How nice it would be if some season Bridgewater College (VA) and Bridgewater State (MA) would meet. Gordon Mann and Pat Cummings would
have fun calling that game, I think …. 😉
As an ‘Eastcoaster’ in the E8, I myself always wonder why it is that the ‘eastcoast’ dominates the ‘talk’ on the d3 blogs. My only explanation (in case anyone cares) is that we in the East have little major conference football to root for nor was there a team to glom onto growing up…The Orange f/k/a/ Orangemen are only good for basketball and Lacrosse. What else do we have?….so point is that perhaps all of us alum from our various schools…SJF, IC, AU, SC, RPI and so on like our d3 football…enjoy Ohio State in the Mid West, Miami and Co. in the South, Texas in the SW and USC (look even big time schools have acronymns) in the west….we love our New York/New England D3!
on the CCIW tiebreaker the NCC website is wrong on many fronts–you need only read the CCIW blog on PP to get the real scoop.
Point differential is the 3rd of 5 criteria used to consider the tiebreaker for the CCIW.
1-head to head among tied teams
2-head to head against next best non tied team
3-point differential
4-yds allowed vs tied teams
5-random draw
Also, NCC lost to wheaton 31-19 (not 20-7 as reported). so the differential right now is NCC +15, Wheaton +9, Augie -24.
If Augie had scored 1x vs NCC, wheaton would own the AQ. As it stands, NCC is the AQ if they win out and wheaton will be a pool C if they win out. Ironically, if Augie loses to millikin in decatur, wheaton becomes the AQ because of h-t-h win over ncc.
Well, I’ve taken my head out of the sand this week after the Aggies of Delaware Valley College, Doylestown, Pa. (notice no acronyms) had a very nice win at Kings. Realizing the loss against Susquehanna leaves us in a perilous position for making the playoffs – does winning out, including a win at Widener, give us at least a 5% chance of getting in?? I just want a little hope for these guys (26 seniors) who’ve given us some real thrills the past two years in those playoff runs. Am I asking for too much??? Does begging help???
SJFF82 has nicely summarized the reason D3football.com means so much and is so useful to “Eastcoasters” in general, New Yorkers in particular…lack of a DI power in NY (excepting, of course, the powerful UB Bulls who “scared” Auburn this year in a 38-7 loss). We grew up following our “local” college teams at Alfred, Hobart, Ithaca, St. Lawrence, Union, etc. comprised of primarily NY kids who were competing against high school teammates or players they’d seen in high school ball. AUPepBand spoke with Mrs. Duliba of Forestville at halftime of Hobart’s 21-14 win over AU. She said, “It’s weird to be over on that side, not cheering for Alfred.” Son Matt Duliba plays for Hobart; older brother Ron was AU’s starting QB for three(?) seasons. Scene on Merrill Field after the game, following team gatherings: chats among Hobart and Alfred players who had played together in high school. D3 football…the way it oughta be.
Nobody in Geneva is taking Union lightly. As stated above, Union is Union. And, I don’t buy Union being an underdog in this one. Union’s only blemish is an 8 point loss to Springfield. Also, as several people have noted, Union is now at full strength. The Dutchmen seem to have hit their stride.
Hobart seems to bend but not break. Their young defense was the question mark at the beginning of the season, but they improve every week and appear to be to be as solid as any defense in the east. The Alfred game could have gone either way. Hobart’s superior punting may have been the difference in this one. Can’t wait til next week!
Kitty Fan:
We have a healthy contingent of East Coast posters on this blog. While Linfield has an active community, Whitworth fans are fewer in number which makes for less exchange between the fans.
Here’s something to throw out for people’s thoughts – if Linfield loses this week should they get in the Playoffs with a 5-2 regional record? I’ve had them on my ballot all year and probably would even if they lose to the Pirates. But do they deserve a playoff spot without a win on Saturday?
Aggie Fan:
I said BC has a 5% chance to get in the playoffs, which might be an overstatement. I think the Aggies are even closer to zero. Right now Susquehanna is 2-6. Losing to them at home gives Del Val a zero in terms of Quality of Win Index for that game. I don’t think there’s any coming back from that.
It’s not the success of previous years, but an ECAC appearance for a team who replaced the best quarterback, running back and center in school history is not bad considering where this program was 4 years ago.
Gordon … close to zero is better than zero … I’ll take it!! Go Aggies!!!
I don’t think that Linfield will lose to Whitworth, but if that should happen, in a close game, I still have to think that the ‘Cats are among the top 32 teams so yes, I’d still say that they should get a slot. But of course my opinion and 2 bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Just to be clear, I was poking fun at myself, not grousing about the volume of East-centric posts. It really did take me awhile to get through that post because I’m not familiar with all the schools.
Linfield seems to be a different team with the change at QB, and they are at home, so I think they have the edge against Whitworth. I was under the impression that 7-2, 6-1 and the NWC title was their only shot to get in.
is there anyway that Alfred can make the tournament still? Or are they defintitly out of it?
Just curious, but is there a realistic possibility of one of the South teams from DE/PA playing in the East Bracket this year?
Looking at the South Top 10, Wesley (who the heck is CHOWAN!?!!?), W&J (remaining 2 games they should win), Dickinson (Ursinus might be tough), and Carnegie Mellon (not playing any above .500 teams) are all in there.
I think it’s likely that those 4 teams will all run the table.
GoBombers-
LOL. Chowan (pronounced Shoe-Wann I believe) is in the process of becoming a full-status D2 team. The name pronounciation is unfortunate, as I always liked to think of them as Seinfeld’s Bizarro Rowan.
Regarding importing a south team into the east bracket…yes I think it is realistic but a lot can happen still. If IC were to run the table, which I’m not exactly wishing for as you might guess, it would likely leave 3 E8 teams with 1 loss. That would almost certainly put all 3 in the tourney. With the MAC champion, the NEFC, NJAC, and Liberty League automatic bids, there might not be a reason to import an extra team.
However if there are a multitude of 2 loss teams in eastern region at the end of the season, then I think the odds favor a team being brought in from outside. Might be a south team, yes. But why not someone from the north like Capital? Or if Baldwin Wallace beats Capital, and each team has 2 losses, you might see 3 OAC teams in the tournament with 1 of them coming to the east bracket.
Regarding Linfield making the playoffs if they lose to Whitworth.
Are they one of the 32 best teams if they were to loss to Whitworth ? Definately (might still be ranked in the top 25), and I don’t think many would doubt that. I mean, their losses would be to two top 10 D3 teams and a 5-3 DII team (which isn’t supposed to count in the primary criteria). Yet, they most likely would not get in.
I wanted to take a moment to invite anyone interested in Eastern Region football to participate in the blog I set up for CortlandFootball.com. We’ll be talking regional football, some inside Cortland stuff, and what is like shooting games and running the website. You will even see the occasional reference to professional wrestling and the history of heavy metal. 🙂
It is moderated, and like to keep things fun and light-hearted. GoBombers, you are more than welcome to stop by. I don’t participate on PostPatterns these days, but there are some good people over there who I miss chatting with. By all means the invite is open to BobNapoleone, ManIntheYellowHat, etc.
http://www.cortlandfootball.blogspot.com/
Cortland–
Nice work and great photos. Even if you did lose some equipment in Danbury. 🙂
I invite others to check out his site.
I am a proud graduate of Wilkes University. This website is great and gives the out the area fan an update quickly. From 1987 to 1992 I believe we won a total of 10 wins and now we are ranked #13 but in top 10 with quality of wins.
Dickie V says it the best “c’mon lets show the love” for Wilkes and now lets beat the arch rival Kings at the end of the year
is there any chance that alfred can make the playoffs? Even if they win out and have some outside help?
JPCP:
Glad to have you aboard. I haven’t seen many Wilkes fans on this blog or the message boards, but we’d love to have more join the fun.
I’d expect another physical and fun Mayor’s Cup battle with King’s in the season finale, even if the Colonels have locked up the title at that point.
Red Dogg9:
Like Bridgewater and Delaware Valley, it’s a long shot at best. There are so many teams battling for just seven at-large spots. I’m not sure there’s going to be much room for teams with more than one loss, like the Saxons.
They would certainly help their own cause by handing Ithaca and SJF another loss. But they’ll need help from lots of other teams who far away from Upstate New York.
Season is dragging and dragging!! I am sick of waiting for UWW and MU rematch! Grrrrrrrrrrr!!
JPCP, just so you know, the QOW is not the be-all and end-all of strength of schedule. It shouldn’t be mistaken for a real national ranking.
Wilkes’ schedule is rated the 82nd-most difficult by the Massey Ratings, for what that’s worth. Just letting you know there are other measurements out there that are considered more accurate.
Whitworth over Linfield
Union over Hobart
Cortland over Rowan
This will end Rowan and Linfield’s playoff run
I didnt think that it was possible last week, but the E8 may get three in….Ithaca still has a tough road vs alfred and cortland
I think that Wesley’s close win over Salisbury will make them a better team in the playoffs
Never liked the Quality of Wins Index much at all . . . it seems to fail to recognize the differences in strengths between conferences.
For example, the index has St. Norbert’s of the MWC about SJU. Both are 9-0. SNC has one NC win over a mediocre NAIA school. SJU’s two wins were over two schools from perhaps D3’s toughest top-to-bottom conference. While UW-EC and UW-RF aren’t having great years, either one of them would likely pound any of SNC’s conference rivals.
When Pat’s crew factors in common sense, it comes out SJU No. 3 and SNC 28th — which seems about right. (Although, I would flip UW-LX and Oxy elsewhere in the top 10.)
Courtland,
Don’t know much about Chowan these days. (pronounced: show-juan according to allsky’s new standard dictionary 🙂 At least that’s what we called them back in the day when I was at Ferrum. They were Ferrum’s big rival back in the early 80’s when both teams played on the JUCO level. Come to think of it…we probably called them worse things than that at the pre game “warm up” at the Ground Floor Country Club in Bassett Hall. 🙂
My guess is that’s why QoW is just one of the criteria. It’s not like the committee will seed St. Norbert higher than St. John’s.
I can see a scenario where three Empire 8 teams make it. The out-of-conference games against Union and Cortland State would help.
East Coast talk dominates the blog because only 16 Division III schools are West of the Rockies, and not many more West of the Mississippi.
Do the math.
Of course so-called East Coast talk will dominate (although the D3 presence is just as strong in the Midwest, the West Coast has a complex about anything that’s not them — I’ve been on both coasts, it’s true).
KittyFan, me and everyone I’ve seen projecting playoffs likes Linfield to make it if they beat Whitworth.
Have you seen Pool B thread on Post Patterns? Good insight there on their chances and possible matchups.
Hey Corland Football that blog page is fantastic! Nice job!
Union is back! Not that they had gone too far. With their receiver corps intact for the first time this season they throttled St. Lawrence in a game accurately predicted by Adam Samrov to be a statement. Can’t wait ’til Sat.