Two weeks ago I thought projecting the playoffs would be relatively easy this year.
We had about as many one-loss teams as there were Pool C bids. Simple enough — just plug and chug, maybe with one slot for a fifth Pool B or two-loss team.
Then St. John Fisher lost to Alfred. Wabash finished up the Monon Bell victory. Sean Salinas returned to upset Hardin Simmons. Now it’s not so simple.
Is Alfred the next best bet with one-regional loss and another against Washington & Lee? Will the SCIAC really get two bids? Does the Committee look more favorably on two-loss ONU who beat Mount Union or two-loss Capital who beat ONU?
The answers are seldom easy and the numbers will often surprise you. For example, we’ve crunched preliminary numbers on the Quality of Win Index and regional records for teams on the threshold. And the one who does best in those categories?
Wilkes. Then Cortland. Then Hampden-Sydney.
That doesn’t mean any of those teams get in, but it’s better news for three teams who seemed like real long shots before today’s games kicked off.
Feel free to post your thoughts below and on the message boards. We’ll be up late and then post our final projection ahead of Pat’s big appearance on ESPN News tomorrow around 1 PM.
Some other points to ponder…
Backing in: Ithaca and Ferrum may have lost a home game or two with their defeats against Cortland and CNU respectively. But will that carry over to the first round of the playoffs? Not necessarily.
Last season two teams lost their regular season finale and neither won their first round game. Willamette lost to eventual-champ Linfield and then Occidental in the first round. Aurora fell to non-D3 Valparaiso and came up short against Wooster.
But in 2003 those who lost their last regular season game went 6-6 in the playoffs. Bethel, Hope and Redlands dropped their first round contests but CNU got through by beating Muhlenberg. Ithaca made it to the regional final where they fell to RPI. The Red Hawks got thumped by Hobart 43-25 to end the regular season, but rebounded to win the East region.
Wish you were here: With apologies to Pink Floyd, I have a message to the undefeated (again) Trinity Bantams who will sit out the playoffs:
How I wish, how I wish you were here. You’re just one game short of a playoff sport, year after year. Running over the same old ground, what have you found? Time to turn in your gear. Wish you were here.
Then again, maybe I should’ve gone with “We don’t need no education.â€
Don’t Stop Believin’: Keeping the classic rock theme, let’s tip our cap to a couple teams who ended 2005 on a good note despite some struggles along the way.
Allegheny may be, as one friend said, “the best 3-7 team in the country.†Five of the Ls are by 7 or less with another in OT. But they finish strong with wins against Earlham and Wittenberg.
Kenyon wrapped up its first winning season since the other George Bush was president (1990) thanks to a 39-yard Chad Rothschild field goal with four seconds left to beat Denison.
And Colorado College and Menlo put on a grande finale of their own in the Tigers’ 58-52 3OT win. Along with 1,325 yards of total offense combined, check out these QB stats:
CC Chris Neal 24-38, 403 yards, 3 TD passing 30-181, 2 TD rushing
Menlo Adam Hazel 25-41, 400 yards, 4 TD passing
Here is my shot in the dark at playoff projections:
HEre is my shot at the brackets:
Delaware VAlley Bracket
1.Del Valley (A)
2. Union (A)
3. Wesley(B)
4. Rowan(A)
5. Hobart(C)
6. Cortland(C)
7. Ithaca(A)
8. Curry(A)
Wesley gets shipped in. The Cortland win over Ithaca gets them in.
Wisconsin Whitewater Bracket
1. UW WHItewater (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. MT UNION (A)
4. Augustana (A)
5. North Central (C)
6. Mt St Joseph (A)
7. Lakeland (A)
8. Albion (A)
Wabash may be the number 1 seed. I think Capital gets in as well, but i have them shipped south.
Trinity Bracket
1. Trinity (A)
2. Thiel (B)
3. MHB (A)
4. Ferrum (A)
5. BRidgewater (A)
6. Washington and Jeff (B)
7. Capital (C)
8. Johns Hopkins (A)
Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St Johns (A)
3. Occidental (A)
4. Coe (A)
5. Monmouth (A)
6. Concordi Moorhead (C)
7. Central (C)
8. CAL Lutheran (C)
New York State’s oldest rivalry and one of the nation’s oldest (1886) produced one heck of a football game in Schenectady as Union hung on to beat RPI 49-42. In a crazy season where the Dutchmen barely beat some teams of little note, they ended up with convincing victories over the cream of the Liberty League, Hobart and yesterday’s victim. Union’s final drive proved to be the perfect sine qua non as they ate up precious time in the waning minutes of the game. With the game, for practical purposes, out of reach, RPI scored one last touchdown, doubtless against a defense intoxicated with visions of an undefeated season. RPI has a splendid team but Union has been blessed this fall. John Audino’s Dutchmen have executed brilliantly in the last two weeks after exhibiting some very disconterting impotence in the middle of the season. With the playoffs now a certainty, Union can hopefully maintain its impressive trajectory.
RPI’s losses vs. Hobart in OT and yesterday @ Union were games they could have won…THey have a high powered offense and have proven themselves worthy opponents in the NCAA playoffs..They should get Pool C consideration.
Both of RPI’s losses were on the road Hobart in OT and yesterday @ Union. The Liberty League has become a tough league and should begin to gain respect from the selection committee…RPI has a quality non-conference wins vs. Endicott & Utica…
Great game yesterday! Union Dutchmen come out on top! Undefeated, Liberty League Champs and going to the NCAA tourney. Wonderful season Union congrats! The past two weeks have been amazing and Union deserves all the attention they are getting! Hats off to RPI, they played great yesterday but they did lose to the better team. Hobart should join Union in the NCAA this year, but sorry RPI even though the games were great and you are a wonderful team with two loses, with respect to other strong conferences in the nation Liberty League will get two teams not three. Good luck in the ECAC RPI your rivals have won this year! Go Dutchmen!
The other conferences in the nation do not have 3 strong teams in it like the Liberty League this year…RPI deserves serious consideration…2 losses on the road, one in OT, to Hobart & Union…RPI put up 90 points in those 2 losses against tournament teams with great defenses. 3 teams from the Liberty League is a possibility…
I just wanted to say, now that I have some time to actually clear my head and (gasp) think, that I had a great time covering the Union/RPI game on Saturday. I loved the atmosphere and it was an entertaining game. I know the 4200 attendance announced was paid attendance but I bet there were 5,500 in the stadium.
Hard to believe that’s the same Union team that struggled to beat Coast Guard and Kings Point. Coach Audino said after the game that they concentrated more on getting the ball into the hands of their playmakers and it showed.
Great to meet some of the folks from the message board. Thanks for your support.
Pat,
D3Football.com is a great site. Your coverage is absolutely extaordinary. To include virtually every program in the country as comprehensively as you do is just short of miraculous. The banter is fun to read and to participate in.
The Union-RPI game could not have provided higher drama. On a perfect day in upstate New York two wonderful teams knocked heads, epitomizing the essence of D III football. What has been overlooked has been the webcast of the game, which, I believe, was a first. It was a treat for us from afar to watch the game live.
You are to be commended for job very well done!
teatord RPI fans are amazing! No matter what ever happens you guys are never satisfied and something is always unfair. Whether it is football, hockey, etc RPI always needs to be in the forefront even if they do not earn it. You have a great football team! As a Union fan I respect them and feel they are good enough to be in the NCAA tourney. Problem is they have two loses, two, and with two they do not deserve to be in the tourny over many other one loss teams. It is that simple and that is why they were not selected. Should they have gone before Alfred (who also was not selected with only 1 loss and a win in there final game) or Cortland who defeated Ithaca? Come on. If RPI beat Union on Saturday and Union did not get selected I would not have complained. I have said it before, you have to earn it and the only way to do that is with W’s. Your team is full of class and great scholar atheletes! Focus on what they did accomplish and stop being unrealistic. By the way the Liberty League is not one of the strongest conferences in the country. It has three teams and then it really drops off. Many other conferences have much more consistancy across the board.
I WOULD LIKE TO CONGRATULATE THE CAL LUTHERAN KINGSMEN ON A WONDERFUL SEASON. AFTER THE LOSS TO OCCIDENTAL THEY HAD TO WIN 7 STRAIGHT TO EVEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THEM THE NON-CONFERENCE TEAMS THEY PLAYED SUCKED THIS YEAR. NEXT YEAR THEY ARE GOING TO MAKE A SERIOUS RUN AT THE PLAYOFFS. GREAT JOB GUYS!