Alright, we’re trying to pick up the pieces of our previous bracket projection. When St. John Fisher and Hardin-Simmons lost, the door was left wide open. Pool C went from six locks down to about four: North Central, Central, Hobart and Concordia-Moorhead. Thankfully, Pool B was pretty easy: Linfield, Thiel, Wesley and Washington and Jefferson. Willamette’s loss put them into the Pool C decision-making process, and Huntingdon’s loss to Maryville meant we didn’t have to consider them anymore.
Hardin-Simmons dropping out also meant, however, that we lose a relatively easy setup for Texas teams, with HSU at Trinity and someone flying in to play Mary Hardin-Baylor. We probably had to deal with three flights anyway, but the new bracket was a little more difficult to ponder.
A reminder of what we were given in terms of automatic bids:
Mary Hardin-Baylor ASC
Johns Hopkins Centennial
Augustana CCIW
Ithaca Empire 8
Mt. St. Joseph HCAC
Lakeland IBFC
Coe IIAC
Union Liberty League
Albion MIAA
Delaware Valley Middle Atlantic
Monmouth Midwest
St. John’s MIAC
Curry NEFC
Rowan NJAC
Wabash NCAC
Mount Union OAC
Bridgewater ODAC
Occidental SCIAC
Trinity (Texas) SCAC
Ferrum USAC
UW-Whitewater WIAC
We came down to the final three Pool C slots and started off with 12 (!) candidates:
That’s regional winning percentage followed by QOW, in no order.
Hardin-Simmons .778 9.556
DePauw .750 9.500
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Capital .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
Cortland State .778 10.333
RPI .778 10.000
Alfred .875 10.125
St. John Fisher .800 9.700
Wilkes .800 10.300
Willamette .800 10.000
The committee will look at them by region, so here’s another look. We’ve placed them in the order we think the committee will. The regional rankings help in some regions, not in others (East, too many losses):
Alfred .875 10.125
Cortland State .778 10.333
RPI .778 10.000
Wilkes .800 10.300
St. John Fisher .800 9.700
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Hardin-Simmons .778 9.556
DePauw .750 9.500
Capital .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
Willamette .800 10.000
The procedure is, take the best team from each region, put them on the board and pick the best of the four.
Alfred .875 10.125
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Capital .800 10.100
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
We have to start with Alfred, as a regional one-loss team (second loss overall is out of region, to Washington and Lee). Replace Alfred with Cortland State and start again. We don’t have wins against regionally ranked teams listed here, because we don’t have regional rankings to work with — wins against teams that were in previous rankings are no longer relevant. Capital has a win against Ohio Northern, which should still be ranked, and a loss to Mount Union. Hampden-Sydney has a loss to Bridgewater and no wins that will qualify (Johns Hopkins is out, not clear if they will get back in).
Replace Capital with Ohio Northern.
Cortland State .778 10.333
Hampden-Sydney .800 10.100
Ohio Northern .800 9.900
Cal Lutheran .889 9.667
We’ve been stuck in this position before, taking either the QOW candidate or the regional winning percentage candidate. There’s not enough data to work with here. We’re thinking Cortland State on the strength of the highest QOW and the win against a regionally ranked opponent. (You know, Ithaca, this week.)
So that’s our 32 teans. Here’s the bracket, before we put you to sleep:
EAST
Delaware Valley
Union
Rowan
Hobart
Cortland State
Ithaca
Alfred
Curry
Great interesting matchups here of teams that don’t usually play each other. And then there’s that 1/8 game between Delaware Valley and Curry. Otherwise, Alfred at Union, Ithaca at Rowan and Cortland State at Hobart.
SOUTH
Trinity (Texas)
Thiel
Occidental
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Wesley
Ferrum
Bridgewater
Johns Hopkins
Oh yeah, we went there. The flights thing is an issue. We didn’t want to pair off Linfield and Occidental, so instead we pair them off with another “island” team (a team that has nobody within 500 miles, the distance at which the NCAA will no longer bus opponents). Is this better than putting Mary Hardin-Baylor at Trinity in the first round? Not much. We’re essentially taking the South’s three seed and pairing it against the West’s four seed … and giving the West four seed the home field because of its unbeaten record. We send Johns Hopkins to Trinity, Bridgewater to Thiel and Ferrum to Wesley, in a matchup of teams that have one loss, by five TDs or more.
NORTH
Wabash
Mount Union
Augustana
North Central
Capital
Mt. St. Joseph
Washington and Jefferson
Albion
W&J coach Mike Sirianni goes against his alma mater, Mount Union. Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana, Capital at North Central.
WEST
Linfield
UW-Whitewater
St. John’s
Concordia-Moorhead
Coe
Monmouth
Central
Lakeland
Lakeland flies to Linfield, which is our third flight. We couldn’t get this done in less than three flights without twice screwing with the competive balance (pairing the Texans and the West Coasters in the first round). Central at UW-Whitewater, Monmouth at St. John’s, Coe at Concordia-Moorhead.
It’s not a standard bracket, to be sure. But then again, we’ve never had 32 teams before.