Welcome one and all to the game we annually call our playoff projections. It’s the wacky, madcap event where we take 21 automatic bids, most of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.
In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight South teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?
First, the basics:
Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 2. This is just a projection. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.
Rowan Bracket
1. Rowan (A)
2. Delaware Valley (A)
3. Hobart (A)
4. Union (C)
5. Ithaca (A)
6. St. John Fisher (C)
7. Wesley (B)
8. Endicott/Fitchburg State (A)
Sometimes the NCAA will juggle pairings for travel purposes, or to keep conference rivals from facing each other in the first round, but no need here. The bracket works out: No. 8 at No.1, No. 7 at No. 2, No. 6 at No. 3 and No. 5 at No. 4. … Delaware Valley hops Hobart this week because it passes the Statesmen in Quality of Wins index (again, see FAQ for questions and definitions). Delaware Valley beat King’s, a .500 team, while Hobart beat St. Lawrence, a sub-.333 team. This could turn right back around next week, though, since Hobart travels to Union. … Wesley moves into this bracket because only seven East Region teams qualified in our projection. I considered moving them up the seeding ladder, but since they lost to Brockport State and St. John Fisher beat Brockport, I kept Wesley seventh. … We’ll talk about Alfred if and only if it wins the next two games (Ithaca and St. John Fisher). … We took Union although they have Hobart and RPI the final two weeks. RPI can take that spot from Union with a win, though we don’t want to get into the Liberty League’s three-way tiebreaker.
North Central Bracket
1. North Central
2. UW-Whitewater
3. Wabash
4. Mount Union
5. Augustana
6. Mt. St. Joseph
7. MIAA champ
8. Lakeland
Again, the pairings work out. … Toyed with moving UW-Whitewater out as a No. 1 seed in this bracket, but North Central holds its own in the criteria. UW-Whitewater is only 91 miles from Notrh Central, so it fits perfectly in here geographically. … Love that 4/5 matchup between the Team of the ’90s and the Team of the ’80s. … Alma, Albion, either way they’d be seeded here.
Trinity (Texas) Bracket
1. Trinity (Texas)
2. Thiel
3. Ferrum
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor
5. Bridgewater (Va.)
6. John Carroll
7. Hardin-Simmons
8. JHU/Ursinus
I can’t make head or tails of the South Region rankings that committee put out last week. Thiel is tied with Ferrum in regional winning percentage, has a sizable advantage in the QOW index, and a win against a regionally ranked team. Made them our No. 2 seed. … Here’s where I get to pull out the penny-pincher label again, but it’s not too far of a stretch to send the No. 7 to the No. 1 seed instead of the No. 8. The NCAA would take this group and put Hardin-Simmons at Trinity and Johns Hopkins/Ursinus at Thiel. … Mary Hardin-Baylor and Mount Union are a pair of tough four seeds. … John Carroll fits in here alright. Toyed with putting them in the East and Wesley here, but Wesley fit the East well where we slotted them. It’s a long drive from John Carroll to Ferrum but it’s within the NCAA’s 500-mile limit and it’s a straight shot down I-77 until the last 50 miles. … A week ago we would have called the Centennial race for Johns Hopkins, but now the chances look pretty even to us. If Johns Hopkins loses at McDaniel and Ursinus wins both its games, home games against 3-5 teams, Ursinus is in.
Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield
2. St. John’s
3. Occidental
4. Coe
5. Monmouth
6. Whitworth
7. Central
8. Wartburg
Look how conveniently we matched up two of the three west coast teams without needing to break up the brackets. … Rematch of a memorable 1999 playoff game with Central at St. John’s. … Central won’t be in this position, but we included them because their criteria outweighed RPI in all three areas, regional winning percentage (.875 to .857), QOW (10.625-10.143), record against regionally ranked teams (1-1 to 0-1). But Central plays at Wartburg this weekend. Central wins, Wartburg is out of the Pool C running with three losses, two in-region. Central loses, Wartburg is in the driver’s seat, Coe is a strong Pool C candidate. Still stuff going on here.
Who’s left over? Top team left on the board in each region: RPI (already mentioned), Capital (which plays John Carroll this weekend and can move up in the pecking order), Concordia-Moorhead (could help its 9.429 QOW with a win against St. Olaf) and, uhm … try to figure out who’s next from the South:
DePauw, .833, 9.500, 0-1 vs. regionally ranked teams
Huntingdon, .800, 9.400, 0-1
Washington and Jefferson, .857, 8.857, 0-1
Huntingdon has one regional game remaining, against Maryville, which will lower its QOW. W&J has one game overall remaining, a regional game against Thomas More, which would raise its QOW to the 9.25 range assuming none of W&J’s previous opponents’ records changes too drastically. DePauw has two regional games left, one against Rose-Hulman and the other against Wabash. Wins in both, which would be required for continued consideration, would boost DePauw’s QOW to the 10.25 range.
At any rate, that only gets that team into the conversation as the best remaining South team. That team still has to be considered better than the best remaining East, North and West teams to get in.
That’s our first projection. Now I need sleep.
The NEFC Champion will either be Curry or Fitchburg State, and that will be determined on Nov. 12. Curry beat Endicott a few weeks ago and is unbeaten (6-0) in the Boyd Division. Endicott has one more divisional game remaining, and even if the Gulls beat MIT it won’t be enough to get in.
Who is the favorite here? It’s a toss up. Fitchburg State boasts the top rushing defense and scoring defense in the conference (11.8 ppg) and already holds a 28-13 victory over the Colonels back in September.
Curry, on the other hand, has been a wrecking ball after starting out the season 1-2. They’ve averaged 30.3 ppg and are second in the conference in scoring offense. FSC is right behind them at 27.8 ppg.
Like last November, this game should be low-scoring, but whoever gets the ball last should come out on top. I’m thinking 21-17, Fitchburg State.
Very equitable for UW-W. They still get 2 home games. They weren’t going to get the #1 seed in the West, so their 3rd game, against NCC, is in their backyard and not a plane flight to McMinnville.
The IIAC will surely lose one of its bids, so we are still talking about the 32nd and 33rd teams.
NEFC champs get the bad rep of never winning a playoff game, well of course they won’t if they are matched up with the # 1 or 2 seed everytime. Too bad for them.
Going to be interesting to see what happens if North Central loses at Augie. Does UW-W become #1 or Wabash (if they both take care of business)?
As far as DePauw/Huntingdon/W&J go, don’t forget that the latter two are pool B eligible, so one of them (most likely W&J) would be next up if one of the projected pool B candidates lose.
A 9-1 DePauw with a 10.25 QoWI and defeat of current #2 north seed Wabash could bump off one of the C’s on the board, but it’s more likely that someone is going to lose and make that unnecessary.
Make that 8-1 DePauw. Stupid hurricanes!
Needless to say, this may be the most important Bell game.
All I am wondering is how did Whitewater end up in the North? I was pretty sure that all Wisconsin (state) schools fell into the West region. Maybe that’s part of the fiscal clause the NCAA has that I don’t know about???
The NCAA can move teams as they see fit, especially if one region overfloweth with playoff teams (thanks to B and C bids). They’ve done it before and they’ll do it again.
Can UW-WW stay in the North when one of the IIAC teams gets eliminated? The question I have is who goes West once the West loses it’s ninth team from these projections? I get that keeping WW in the West makes for a loaded region, but the NCAA hasn’t particularly shyed away from such things in the past.
I think Concordia deserves a Pool C over any IIAC team. Their only loss was a last second TD to the #3 ranked team in the Nation. Especially if they put on an impressive showing against St. Olaf this weekend!
I’m wondering the logic for giving Wart a bid when they already have 2 losses to teams with a combined 9-8 record. After this weekend when Central plays Wart, either Wart has 3 losses or Central has 2… either way neither one deserves a spot over Concordia in my mind.
Thoughts/ explanations?
Pat said: “But Central plays at Wartburg this weekend. Central wins, Wartburg is out of the Pool C running with three losses, two in-region. Central loses, Wartburg is in the driver’s seat, Coe is a strong Pool C candidate. Still stuff going on here.”
AKA Wartburg only gets in if they win the IIAC and the conference’s Pool *A* bid.
Ron,
I got that much, but that still leaves Wart with 2 losses, I am more miffed by the snub of Concordia than by the multi-loss IIAC teams getting in.
Pat,
Any reason you have Bridgewater seeded higher than HSU, despite HSU having a higher QOWI and better in-region winning percentage?
I know as of Oct. 26th, the South Region Committee has BC ahead of HSU, but they also have Ferrum ahead of Thiel, and I saw you changed that order. Why not BC and HSU too?
Makes no difference, ‘rat. Pool A winners qualify strictly because they won their conference. The number of losses is irrelevant as long as they win the conference.
This will change after the games are played.
Mizzou:
Because the NCAA had BC ahead of HSU last week, as you said. 🙂
Rat: QOWI numbers relevant to your question, Coe 10.286, Central 10.625, Concordia-Moorhead 9.429.
I addressed their chance to move up in the text.
Wally –
You can replace Wartburg or Central with Coe or Concordia / Moorhead. Same difference. Wishing won’t keep Whitewater in the West.
Moorhead is no lock to get in once the IIAC loses a team from these projections. Remember, at-large bids aren’t given on a regional basis (at least they’re not supposed to be). Once Wartburg or Central gets knocked out this weekend, Moorhead, while the next best West team, is still competing with RPI, Capital, Depauw, and then possibly the North Central/Augie loser (certainly North Central should they lose) for that Pool C spot. Each of those teams have stronger QoWIs than does Moorhead. It’s not as easy as just plugging Moorhead into the hole left by the Wartburg/Central loser.
Can someone give me an injury update on “key” players from the teams that are fighting for playoff spots? Is Rowan’s quarterback still hurt?
Rowan’s QB, Mike Orihel, is out for the season.
I have a feeling that Moorhead’s QOWI index will increase once it gets past St. Olaf.
The North Central / Augie game should really affect seeding only.
How has Rowan’s backup played? We he be able to lead them deep into the playoffs?
Will he ……sorry
>The North Central / Augie game should really affect seeding only.
You think Augustana is in even with a loss? That would be their second regional loss.
Ah, incomplete thought. You’re right. If North Central loses, I think they’re still a C and still in the North. If Augie loses, then it opens things up for someone.
The point being that it’s going to take a lot more than that to keep Whitewater out of the North.
pat-under your scenario in the bracket, augie has two losses. if North central is the 1 seed that means they win this weekend v augie and augie has 2 losses. i realize this is a work in progress but that would change seedings as you mention.
any chance a two loss wheaton team gets in?
That game hasn’t been played yet. This is a snapshot at this time.
thats what i figured. thx
Heavy dizzle,
there is a ‘significant injuries’ thread on the message board for that exact purpose.