Good morning, Division III fans.
As those of you focused on the playoff picture eagerly await Wednesday afternoon’s release of the selection committee’s regional rankings, I thought I’d further an experiment I started Tuesday morning on the Pool C thread of Post Patterns.
Attempting to illustrate the not-seen-before possibilities the geography of this year’s potential field allows, I slapped together a mock bracket to get some discussion going. I’ll run a slightly-adjusted version of that bracket below, plus a more traditional one, and maybe even a third to show how slightly altering the field via Pool C can have a domino effect.
Let it be very clear that these are not things I think will or should happen, necessarily. And I wouldn’t want anyone to confuse a few of my hastily-assembled mocks with Pat and Gordon’s carefully crafted, traditionally accurate night-before-Selection-Sunday projections. There are too many unknowns as of yet to spend a lot of time working up something we’re likely to see Sunday, but it’s not too early to consider as many possibilities as situations might allow.
Mock One
Pool C teams: UMHB, St. Thomas, Coe, Wabash, Redlands, Lebanon Valley/Albright winner
1 Mount Union
8 Union
4 Thomas More
5 Alfred
3 Case Western Reserve
6 Mount St. Joseph
2 Wittenberg
7 Trine
————
1 UW-Whitewater
8 DePauw
4 Ill. Wesleyan
5 Wabash
3 Monmouth
6 Coe
7 St. Thomas
2 Central
———–
1 Wesley
7 LV/Albright
3 Hampden-Sydney
8 NCWC/Averett winner
4 Kean/Montclair State
5 Curry
2 Delaware Valley
6 Johns Hopkins
————
1 St. John’s
8 NathCon champ
3 Huntingdon
6 Mississippi College
4 Cal Lutheran
5 UMHB
7 Redlands
2 Linfield
Mock Two
Pool C teams: St. Thomas, St. Norbert, Dickinson, Coe, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Ohio Northern
1 Mount Union
8 Susquehanna
4 Mount St. Joseph
5 Ohio Northern
3 Case Western Reserve
6 Alfred
2 Kean/Montclair
7 Johns Hopkins
————
1 UW-Whitewater
7 Trine
4 Wittenberg
5 Thomas More
3 Monmouth
6 Ill. Wesleyan
8 (Nath Con)
2 Central
———–
1 Wesley
8 Curry
4 Huntingdon
5 Mississippi College
3 H-SC
6 NCWC/Averett
2 Delaware Valley
7 Dickinson
————
1 St. John’s
8 St. Norbert
4 St. Thomas
5 Coe
4 UMHB
5 DePauw
7 Cal Lutheran
2 Linfield
Mock Three
Pool C teams: LV/Albright, Otterbein, Wabash, W&J, UMHB, St. Thomas
1 Mount Union
8 Wash. & Jeff.
4 Case Western Reserve
5 St. John Fisher
3 Montclair/Kean
6 Maine Maritime
2 Susquehanna
7 Delaware Valley
————
1 UW-Whitewater
8 Concordia (Wis.)
5 Otterbein
4 Wabash
3 Wittenberg
6 Mount St. Joseph
7 Illinois Wesleyan
2 St. John’s
———–
1 Wesley
8 Randolph-Macon
4 Dickinson
5 Leb Val/Albright
3 Miss. Coll.
6 UMHB
7 Averett
2 Huntingdon
————
1 Central
8 St. Thomas
4 Thomas More
5 Trine
3 Monmouth
6 DePauw
7 Cal Lutheran
2 Linfield
No. 1 seeds: as for the top seeds, I did not determine who would meet in the semis with these brackets. But I think it’s likely that UW-W and St. John’s brackets would be paired and Mount Union and Wesley would, based on how the teams have been ranked.
Quick observations: This is hard work. … As you can see in mock 3, I tried, but I don’t think with all the Ohio area teams set to make the field that it’s a great idea to build the East around Mount Union. It makes sense to do the North there and group a bunch of the Pa. teams around Wesley … I tried in mock 3 to throw some of the improbable AQ winners in there to bump the familiar names … unless UMHB misses out, splitting up those three deep south teams is going to be costly … seeds vary a lot through the mocks, and some of the brackets would likely be seeded differently than the traditional 1-8, 5-4, 3-6, 7-2.
Anyway, let me know what you think below. Happy speculating!
Keith,
I think the Mock One has identified solid choices for Pool C based on what we know right now. I also believe the Four Number One Seeds should be the following (listed as how I would seed them):
1. MUC
2. UWW
3. St. John’s
4. Wesley
SIDE NOTE: Pretty sure you meant Concordia (ILL) in your Mock Three.
Interesting and a lot of work. I tried doing one and gave up after about 10 minutes. I can’t wait for selection Sunday to see where everything falls. My biggest curiousity is the East Region to see whether Wesley or Mount Union is brought in as the #1 seed.
Mock #1: Yes!
I’ve often thought and wondered about putting the west coast and texas/deep south teams together to get all the flights in one bracket, but never wanted to do all the figuring, so thanks for doing the work. I wonder if the committee would find this a useful thing to do.
Especially with Wesley being a nearly sure #1, and being so much closer to many east region teams rather than south, i like the way this comes out, and it would be interesting for players and fans to see some new matchups.
If Maine Maritime upsets Curry this week, they’ll throw in a geographic monkey wrench – the only teams within a bus ride for them will be Union and the NJAC winner.
I know this is just a Mock bracket, BUT . . . There is NO WAY that a 2nd place team from the SCIAC can get in ahead of Willamette, who has already beaten Cal Lutheran this year. The NWC is the ONLY CONFERENCE in D III to have TWO DIFFERENT NATIONAL CHAMPIONS in the past 10 years and is still one of the top 3 or 4 conferences in all of D III. I understand the weak argument about the costs involved to fly teams around, but its time that the NWC got a little more respect. Willamette can beat any second place team and most first place teams, YES, to include ONU, Capital and Otterbien! Thanks.
Eagle, I agree that Willamette is a strong and deserving team, but unfortunately, the committee seems to be using W-L records as their primary criterion this year without much regard to who beat whom or how soundly. See the earlier blog post, NCAA regional rankings take 2, where they ranked Cal Lu and Redlands, who both only have one loss, while Willamette has a 6-2 regional record – their victory over SOU is not factored in, even though it shows their strength in beating a d-2 team.
The system does not guarantee that the best 32 teams in the nation get in (otherwise we’d see the top 3 or 4 teams from several conferences, including the NWC, and no teams from the NATHC etc. – not to disparage those teams, we have a good system that gives everyone a chance to get in by winning their conference).
Also, the who-beat-whom scenario is always shaky – note that Willamette lost to Concordia-Moorhead, who are not even close to getting in.
Note that if Redlands is a Pool C team (as in Mock 1), it will be because they are 8-1 with a win over Pool A Cal Lu this week – Cal Lu would get the AQ because of the Rose Bowl rule, even though Redlands would be an OT 3-pt loss (vs Oxy Week 6) away from undefeated. If they crush Cal Lu, I’d have a hard time keeping them out.
We’re still going to do a mock bracket tonight after the regional rankings come out. I think.
@ Eagle23, you raise a good point in considering Willamette’s victory over Cal Lutheran, which puts the Bearcats ahead of the Kingsmen in Pool C. But the only bracket above where a second-team SCIAC is brought in is the first one, which includes Redlands.
The Bulldogs have no h2h result against the Bearcats, but have two common opponents in Whitworth and CLU, a comparable OWP/OOWP that will improve when they play CLU and the Bearcats play Menlo, and a better regional winning percentage (i.e. they would have only one loss to Willamette’s two).
They have a strong case.
Everything else you mentioned, about the NWC being strong and having champions in 1999 and 2004, is not on the list of criteria and has little, if anything, to do with the 2009 selections.
And if you think a two-loss NWC team is a lock to get in, you must have missed the Whitworth fiasco a few years ago.
The thing I got out of this exercise more than anything else is that with all the Ohio-area North Region teams, all the Pa.- and Va.-area South Region teams, and with the trio of deep south teams, it’s going to be hard to center the East bracket around Mount Union this year.
I think the Ohio group has three other teams that can host (Case, Witt, T. More/MSJ) and potentially several more (incl. OAC runner up) that could make the “north” region around MUC really a mix of Ohio teams and the one or two NY teams.
That leaves Wesley’s bracket to host perhaps 1-2 CC teams, ODAC, LL, NJAC and the one New England team. (agree about Maine Maritime BTW. Sending them to Union would not be ideal since both should be on the road low seeds. But that has happened)
Then the three South teams and someone else could be “podded” with one of the two West No. 1 seeds — that would mean after two rounds, only one deep south team (aka flight) could be left standing — and like someone mentioned above, the flights would be concentrated in one bracket.
I’m don’t think that the committee is directed to think this far ahead, but it might also want to spread the flight teams around early, especially since there are few stone-cold cases to host, in hopes that they all lose and we’re flight free later … when you put two outliers together, one is guaranteed to advance.
I wasn’t able to build a bracket that featured just one flight in the first round, though it might still be possible once we know the exact 32 teams.
What are the chances UW-Stevens Point gets in? The rumor is that they have a good shot with a win this Saturday.
That’s not bad at all. lol