ATN Podcast: Beginning to make sense

A few conference races came into focus. A few big plays decided a few big games. And we march ever closer to Selection Sunday. Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman break down the games and look at the big numbers, from 297 to 12,903.

Click the play button below to listen.

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed:

26 thoughts on “ATN Podcast: Beginning to make sense

  1. All the discussion about C. Newport and what’s wrong. It is easy, their so called All-American tailback is NOT! I believe that Wesley held him to 12 yards. He builds up his yards against weak teams. You stop him and you stop C. Newport.

    Also, how does UMHB get the 8 slot in the poll and the team that just beat them and has the same record come in at 15? What’s up with that??????

  2. piperarcher: with regard to the UMHB – MC ranking. MC was of course, not ranked in the top 25, but was moved to #15 after the win. How much higher would you have ranked them….would you have moved them higher than all the other teams that have one loss and have been “ranked” all year? What you describe has been the case year after year……my observation is that it’s really not that uncommon… even in Div 1.

  3. I would have place UMHB behind MC! The fact that is not uncommon does not make it correct! Remember, they beat as, Keith and Pat say, one of the three “powers” in DIII.

  4. Well, I can see that you are emotional about it….so, nothing else I could say would matter. They will play again…..

  5. UMHB to Mississippi College is a road trip of over 500 miles.

    Home Field Advantage is incredible for any Choctaw team. Attendance was 4871 fans. Choctaw fans have always supported the football team well. On a neutral field, I wonder who wins the more games in a 10 game series.

    I just hope that a 9-1 overall/7-1 in-region/7-1 ASC UMHB gets a Pool C bid.

  6. But, to be clear, Ralph, not according to the NCAA’s mileage charts.

    TES – Mileage Calculation

    Miles: 480.0

  7. I would sure think that if Mississippi College and UMHB run the table they would both make the playoffs. This could also be the year that a lot of 2 loss teams get a serious look. The OAC could easily have a 2 loss team in second place. The MIAC’s best pool C could likely have 2 losses as well depending on the outcome of the STU/Bethel game. Coe may have a shot at a pool C if they end the season with only one loss (Central). The DePauw/Wabash game may decide a Pool C bid if both make it that far without losing again. The WIAC has shown a lot of parity, and is a top notch conference, but the second place team will most likely have 2+ losses. I would think the loser of NCC and Wheaton will be a pool C provided they don’t lose again.

    The new AFCA poll came out today and UMHB fell all the way to #13…wow.

  8. Obviously, Mississippi College gets in if they run the table, I meant it would help UMHB’s SOS for them to do that.

  9. Re Ralph’s comment, you have to understand that UMHB has unfairly been left at home with one loss in the past and there are certainly legitimate fears that could be the case again. With zero non-conference D3 games on the schedule, the Cru’s SOS will be very pedestrian.

  10. Ralph Turner: I agree with your earlier post…there are many
    REASONS for the UMHB loss….you pointed out a few….add to it the unavailability of the all-american running back and the early injury (broken arm) of his back-up….yeah, the 3rd team running back did a great job in the second half. UMHB was just “snake bite”…..bottom line, though….no excuses.. UM just “took it to them” and wanted it more than UMHB. My guess is that both teams will run the table for the rest of the year…assuming UMHB gets a pool C bid (no guarantee there!) they “should” meet in the first round.

  11. Thanks for the correction, Pat!

    UMHB’s OWP and OOWP will be around .500. There is no way that we in this part of the country can get the OWP/OOWP’s that the teams in the “high concentration” regions can achieve.

    When I went thru my first run of Pool C candidates on the Pool C 2009 board, I found plenty of worthwhile teams which are likely to be one-loss teams.
    Coe, WIAC runner-up, MIAC runner-up, OAC runner-up, CCIW runner-up, E8/MAC/anyone else from the East Region… there are 6 right there.

    I would like to have a #1 Miss College (Pool A) at #4 Huntingdon (Pool B)/#3 UMHB (Pool C) at #2 Millsaps (SCAC Pool A) sub-bracket.

  12. I want make excuses for MHB VS MC like everyone else is doing however did anyone see or listen to the game. It appeared to me MHB tried to run the ball against a stacked box of sometimes 9 or 10 daring MHB to pass the ball. Did anyone else see this way.

  13. Another possibility would be to send one of the West Coast teams to this subbracket if there are three teams on the West Coast. Granted this is a longshot due to needing three teams on the West Coast and the NCAA to think outside of the box.

  14. I think there is a very good chance that the WIAC, CCIW, OAC, and MIAC will have runners-up with at least 2 losses. Here are some of those teams and games remaining:

    UWSP, 2 losses, still have to play UWW, UWLaX
    UWLaX, 1 loss, still have to play UWW, Stout, UWEC, UWSP
    Unless someone beats UWW, likely 3 losses for the number 2 spot in the WIAC

    Otterbein, 0 losses, still have Capital and MUC
    Capital, 1 loss, still have Otterbein and ONU
    ONU, 2 losses, still have Capital

    NCC, 1 loss, still play Wheaton and IWU. (Augie and Elmhurst aren’t gimmes)
    IWU, 1 loss, still have NCC and Wheaton

    St. Thomas, 1 loss, play Bethel and Augsburg
    Bethel, 2 losses, play St Thomas and Augsburg

    Pool C could be flooded with really good 2 loss teams this year because of the parity in the traditionally tough conferences. Of course we’ve seen 2 loss teams make deep runs (Wheaton last year) so that doesn’t mean they won’t get bids. All of these teams will have good SOS as well. Wartburg has lost to both St. Norbert and Coe, which doesn’t help either of those teams and they were both beaten soundly by Monmouth and Central so they aren’t in a great position with 1 loss either. Coe is better off than SNC because of the win over Augie, but they keep losing too.

  15. [quote]WIAC:
    [b]UWSP, 2 losses[/b], still have to play UWW, UWLaX
    UWLaX, 1 loss, still have to play UWW, Stout, UWEC, UWSP
    Unless someone beats UWW, likely 3 losses for the number 2 spot in the WIAC[/quote]

    UW-Stevens Point has only 1 loss in D3…their second loss was at NAIA Azusa Pacific
    UWW, unbeaten, but still has to play River Falls, Stevens Point, Oshkosh and La Crosse
    Anything can happen in the WIAC and usually does.

  16. Donnie: Rudyard Kipling said “We have forty million reasons for failure, but not a single excuse.” I buy into to that…It was not my intent to make excuses…I just think there are valid “reasons” that one team in every contest loses. Your point about UMHB “trying to run the ball against a stacked box of sometimes 9 or 10 daring MHB to pass the ball”…might be true….I don’t know. I consider Coach Fredenberg to be one of the best coaches in college football….so, I would NEVER second guess him. Having said that, I just think the freshman QB too often made bad decisions while “executing” the option….seems it got to the point that MC didn’t worry too much about the option….they just “keyed” on the QB. (and yes, I did watch the game)

  17. So the Azusa Pacific loss will be completely ignored because they aren’t D3…even though they were manhandled by LaX…

    I still don’t know if UWSP will get a Pool C at 7-3 (7-2 against D3) if that’s the case. LaX has to go 3-1 against the remainder of their schedule to not end up with 3 losses.

    UWW losing 2 of their final 4 is not likely but that was my point in saying someone has to beat them or there will, in all probability, be a 3 loss team in second place.

  18. Old Sarge said

    “Having said that, I just think the freshman QB too often made bad decisions while “executing” the option….seems it got to the point that MC didn’t worry too much about the option….they just “keyed” on the QB.”

    GEE, just what the ASC needs… a freshman learning how to run the UMHB option. That means that he will still be playing in 2012!

  19. Ralph Turner:

    yeah you are right…he will still be here in 2012. He’s played very well…but he is a freshman and just needs time to “learn”….and of course, the only way to do this is to PLAY. He just had not been put under “big time” pressure…till he faced MC. This is not unlike the situation “we” had with Josh Welch —who started as a freshman…and went to the Stagg bowl. It will “all” work out……..

  20. Piperarcher,
    I wrote a item for ATN last night before I saw your comments on this that you are going to like. Regarding the UMHB and Miss Coll rankings … it’ll be under the header Poll Positions on Thursday.

  21. Oldsarge, I apologize and my reply was not directed towards anyone. I was just thinking that UMHB should have passed the ball more. Some say you establish the run and it will open up the passing game, establish the passing game and it will open up for the run. Maybe a few more pass plays would have kept MC honest and from keying directly on the option. Again, my apologies your points were well taken. Looking forward to the playoffs.

  22. Just out of curiosity, and not trying to offend anyone, can someone tell me the last team with the option as their base offense who won a collegiate championship at any level? I know UMHB went to the Stagg Bowl, but has anyone actually won a championship recently without at least having a decent passing game?

  23. Keith: Just read your piece about polls…..well done….I enjoyed it.
    Your main focus was on UMHB – MC….that game of course was just one of five (I think!) games this year in which a ranked team was beaten by an unranked team…only in one case was the unranked team moved above the ranked team ( North Central-Ohio Northern) the next week (you spoke “to” that one). I can see your point….and I don’t disagree in principle…..But, I could see some real issues with… far down do you move a highly ranked team and how far up do you move a team that was unranked….do you decide that you vote the unranked team then make sure the ranked team is below that ?? How does that effect the ranking of teams from other conferences. Seems to me that at sometime…. those with a vote are going to have to rely on opinion….):

Leave a Reply