Last year at this time I was having a beer, shouting in a loud room at a former D-III quarterback and future D3football.com color analyst, breathing in the smoke and looking at the shambles of my previous bracket projection while trying to assemble the next one.

This year at this time … well, it’s done.

Wednesday night’s projected hold up pretty well. All of the at-large teams remain the same, though selected in a different order. And the wrinkle of Maine Maritime, which is so far away from the rest of the field that there’s only one team in our projection it can drive to, actually got a fairly simple solution, if surprising to some.

But enough with the chit-chat and on with the brackets. Pool B and Pool C teams are noted. The rest got automatic bids.

Bracket 1
1. Mount Union
2. Delaware Valley
3. Alfred
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (Pool C)
5. Montclair State
6. Maine Maritime
7. Johns Hopkins
8. Susquehanna

The games: Susquehanna at Mount Union; winner faces the winner of Maine Maritime and Mary Hardin-Baylor. Johns Hopkins at Delaware Valley; winner faces the winner of Montclair State at Alfred.

Why? Maine Maritime could only drive to one place: Montclair State. Mary Hardin-Baylor doesn’t have an opponent it can drive to. (Or, more accurately, it could drive to Mississippi College, but that would leave Huntingdon without an opponent. Basically, two flights are required in the first round no matter how we arrange the 32 teams, so why not match UMHB this way?)

Bracket 2
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Wittenberg
3. Case Western Reserve (Pool B)
4. Illinois Wesleyan
5. Coe (Pool C)
6. Wabash (Pool C)
7. Trine
8. Mount St. Joseph

The games: Mount St. Joseph at UW-Whitewater; winner faces winner of Coe at Illinois Wesleyan. Wabash at Case Western Reserve (again, yes); winner faces winner of Trine at Wittenberg.

Why? Coe wasn’t going to be in this bracket, but there’s a bind in the West that would either force Coe and Central to play each other or put Coe at St. John’s in the first round. Coe can get to Illinois Wesleyan easily within 500 miles, as well at UW-Whitewater.

Bracket 3
1. Wesley (Pool B)
2. Thomas More
3. Hampden-Sydney
4. Huntingdon (Pool B)
5. Albright (Pool C)
6. Mississippi College
7. Ohio Northern (Pool C)
8. North Carolina Wesleyan

The games: North Carolina Wesleyan at Wesley; winner faces winner of Mississippi College at Huntingdon. Ohio Northern at Thomas More; winner faces winner of Albright at Hampden-Sydney.

Why? Well, Ohio Northern is here because it’s closer to the rest of the teams than DePauw is, even though DePauw is in the NCAA’s South Region. I put Albright here instead of swapping them with Johns Hopkins because Albright would likely have had been seeded to play Delaware Valley if both were in the same bracket.

Bracket 4
1. St. John’s
2. Central
3. Linfield
4. Monmouth
5. St. Thomas
6. Cal Lutheran
7. DePauw
8. Lakeland

The games: Lakeland at St. John’s; winner faces winner of St. Thomas and Monmouth. Cal Lutheran at Linfield; winner faces winner of DePauw and Central.

Why? Cal Lutheran was going to play Linfield no matter what. Central nudged ahead of Linfield in my mind with a .537 SOS compared to Linfield’s .508. Each was 1-0 against teams in our mock regional ranking: UW-Stevens Point did not make the ranking.

When Ohio Northern was selected as our last Pool C team, Springfield, Washington and Jefferson and St. Norbert were left on the board. Ohio Northern has a win against a regionally ranked team, which those teams lacked.

The final board, with regional record, strength of schedule and results against regionally ranked opponents:

Springfield 7-2 .568 lost to ALF
Ohio Northern 8-2 .537 beat NCC, lost to MTU
Wash. & Jeff. 9-1 .433 lost to TMRE
St. Norbert 9-1 .491 lost to MONM

This is a fairly unusual-looking bracket for those who may still be stuck in the pre-Pools era and expect to see only East, South, North and West teams in their respective brackets. But when you have a South team from Indiana and another from suburban Cincinnati … when you have three East teams from Pennsylvania and a South team even further East, in Delaware, you simply cannot build a bracket that makes sense to the old guard.

This bracket makes the best use of the limited first-round flight resources, and does so in a responsible manner. It makes sense.

We’ll see if it makes the big screen tomorrow.

Here’s the list of teams that has clinched. I’m keeping this post clear — let’s only post clinches here, alright? There will be another Game Day post tomorrow.

The conferences with automatic bids are listed below:

ASC Mississippi College
CC Johns Hopkins
CCIW Illinois Wesleyan
E8 Alfred
HCAC Mount St. Joseph
IIAC Central
LL Susquehanna
MAC Delaware Valley
MIAA Trine
MIAC St. John’s
MWC Monmouth
NATHC Lakeland
NCAC Wittenberg
NEFC Maine Maritime
NJAC Montclair State
NWC Linfield
OAC Mount Union
ODAC Hampden-Sydney
PAC Thomas More
SCAC DePauw
SCIAC Cal Lutheran
USAC North Carolina Wesleyan
WIAC UW-Whitewater

It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 23 automatic bids, 11 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or fiscally, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket by itself. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 23 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining six bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we hope to answer. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

We projected the following results for Week 11: Wabash beating DePauw, Thomas More beating Mount St. Joseph, Johns Hopkins winning the Centennial. We didn’t project a winner in the NJAC, NEFC, Liberty League, USA South or NATHC because it didn’t appear it would matter to seedings. Nor did we project an Albright/Lebanon Valley winner. Their numbers are fairly similar no matter who wins.

Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold. On with the brackets:

Mount Union Bracket (seeded No. 1)
1. Mount Union
2. Delaware Valley
3. Alfred
4. NJAC winner
5. Lebanon Valley/Albright winner (Pool C)
6. NEFC winner
7. LL winner
8. Johns Hopkins
If Susquehanna beats Union, we’d probably flop them with Susquehanna. That would put JHU at Delaware Valley, but the NCAA committee only tries to avoid conference rematches in the first round. It doesn’t worry as much about non-conference rematches. If Averett wins the USA South, I would put it No. 8 in this bracket. The schools are within 500 miles of each other. The other USAC contender is North Carolina Wesleyan, which is more than 500 miles from Mount Union, outside the driving radius. Oh, and I guess I should just point out that Mount Union is in a bracket filled with primarily East teams.

UW-Whitewater Bracket (seeded No. 2)
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Wittenberg
3. Case Western Reserve (Pool B)
4. Illinois Wesleyan
5. Wabash (Pool C)
6. Trine
7. Ohio Northern (Pool C)
8. DePauw
DePauw with a loss would be looking at the No. 8 seed. With a win, they would grade out ahead of Trine, Wabash isn’t in this bracket, or even in the field. Dickinson would be next on the list if it wins and doesn’t get the Centennial Conference bid. Ohio Northern is in over Dickinson for now because it possesses something no other Pool C contender has: a win against a regionally ranked team. It also had the highest SOS of any Pool C contender. UW-Whitewater moved into this bracket

St. John’s Bracket (seeded No. 3)
1. St. John’s
2. Linfield
3. Central
4. Monmouth
5. St. Thomas (Pool C)
6. Coe (Pool C)
7. Cal Lutheran
8. NATHC champ
I was tempted to swap Monmouth and Illinois Wesleyan, but either way, one bracket would have had four unbeaten teams at the top. This would be a spot where we’d break apart the brackets, not because of geography but because the NCAA would not have Coe and Central meet in the first round. So, the Northern Athletics Conference champ at Central and Coe at St. John’s.

Wesley Bracket (seeded No. 4)
1. Wesley (Pool B)
2. Hampden-Sydney
3. Thomas More
4. Huntingdon (Pool B)
5. Mississippi College
6. Mary Hardin-Baylor (Pool C)
7. Mount St. Joseph
8. USAC winner
Mount St. Joseph fits better in this grouping than DePauw does, geographically. Mary Hardin-Baylor is flying to Thomas More, but heck, it has to fly somewhere.

St. Thomas, Coe, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Wabash, Lebanon Valley-Albright winner and Ohio Northern were the six Pool C teams I chose. Left on the board: the NJAC runner-up representing the East, North Central representing the North, Dickinson from the South and St. Norbert from the West.