Two weeks ago I thought projecting the playoffs would be relatively easy this year.

We had about as many one-loss teams as there were Pool C bids. Simple enough — just plug and chug, maybe with one slot for a fifth Pool B or two-loss team.

Then St. John Fisher lost to Alfred. Wabash finished up the Monon Bell victory. Sean Salinas returned to upset Hardin Simmons. Now it’s not so simple.

Is Alfred the next best bet with one-regional loss and another against Washington & Lee? Will the SCIAC really get two bids? Does the Committee look more favorably on two-loss ONU who beat Mount Union or two-loss Capital who beat ONU?

The answers are seldom easy and the numbers will often surprise you. For example, we’ve crunched preliminary numbers on the Quality of Win Index and regional records for teams on the threshold. And the one who does best in those categories?

Wilkes. Then Cortland. Then Hampden-Sydney.

That doesn’t mean any of those teams get in, but it’s better news for three teams who seemed like real long shots before today’s games kicked off.

Feel free to post your thoughts below and on the message boards. We’ll be up late and then post our final projection ahead of Pat’s big appearance on ESPN News tomorrow around 1 PM.

Some other points to ponder…

Backing in: Ithaca and Ferrum may have lost a home game or two with their defeats against Cortland and CNU respectively. But will that carry over to the first round of the playoffs? Not necessarily.

Last season two teams lost their regular season finale and neither won their first round game. Willamette lost to eventual-champ Linfield and then Occidental in the first round. Aurora fell to non-D3 Valparaiso and came up short against Wooster.

But in 2003 those who lost their last regular season game went 6-6 in the playoffs. Bethel, Hope and Redlands dropped their first round contests but CNU got through by beating Muhlenberg. Ithaca made it to the regional final where they fell to RPI. The Red Hawks got thumped by Hobart 43-25 to end the regular season, but rebounded to win the East region.

Wish you were here: With apologies to Pink Floyd, I have a message to the undefeated (again) Trinity Bantams who will sit out the playoffs:

How I wish, how I wish you were here. You’re just one game short of a playoff sport, year after year. Running over the same old ground, what have you found? Time to turn in your gear. Wish you were here.

Then again, maybe I should’ve gone with “We don’t need no education.”

Don’t Stop Believin’: Keeping the classic rock theme, let’s tip our cap to a couple teams who ended 2005 on a good note despite some struggles along the way.

Allegheny may be, as one friend said, “the best 3-7 team in the country.” Five of the Ls are by 7 or less with another in OT. But they finish strong with wins against Earlham and Wittenberg.

Kenyon wrapped up its first winning season since the other George Bush was president (1990) thanks to a 39-yard Chad Rothschild field goal with four seconds left to beat Denison.

And Colorado College and Menlo put on a grande finale of their own in the Tigers’ 58-52 3OT win. Along with 1,325 yards of total offense combined, check out these QB stats:

CC Chris Neal 24-38, 403 yards, 3 TD passing 30-181, 2 TD rushing
Menlo Adam Hazel 25-41, 400 yards, 4 TD passing

OK,
Pat and I will check in from our respective rivalry games, and through comments, you can do the same.

It’s a beautiful day here in Greencastle, about 60 degrees and bright, with a wind blowing end zone to end zone that might affect the game.

I won’t ramble too much now, but it gets no bigger than this. Rivalry game with a 9-0 vs. a 7-1, playoff implications for both sides.

We’re about 6 minutes to kickoff. Let’s get it on!

Yes, definitely looking ahead to Saturday. In fact, I’ve been looking forward to this weekend for a little over a month, since I decided I was going to spend Week 11 at the Union/RPI game. I have to be in the northeast on Sunday to do the selection show on ESPNews and felt this was easily the best use of my time on Saturday. Expect a photo gallery Sunday at some point from the game.

Top 25 team most likely to get upset: It’s not fair to pick Union — even though Union is in the Top 25 and RPI is not, I think they’re pretty evenly matched, plus it’s a rivalry game, which makes it unfair to pick. Thiel is a consideration, so is Rowan and Delaware Valley. Augustana is possible. So is either IIAC team. Going with Coe, I guess.

Top 25 team most likely to have the game in hand by 10:00 of the first quarter: Linfield. Next question.

Tiebreaker most likely to need a slide rule: Keep an eye on that MIAA. If Albion doesn’t beat Olivet and the right other things happen, it could get kind of messy.

Rivalry foreclosed: This weekend will be the last great Secretaries’ Cup game, between Kings Point and Coast Guard. The “Little Army/Navy Game” will move to September next year because Coast Guard is bailing out of the Liberty League. Talk about taking the life out of a rivalry game. Imagine Michigan and Ohio State playing in Week 2?

Why do they have their number? Frostburg State has dealt Salisbury some puzzling losses in recent years, in Regents’ Cup play. (The two Division III state schools in Maryland have a trophy game.) In 2002 and 2003, Frostburg (6-5, 4-5) stuck a fork in some pretty good Salisbury teams (9-2, 7-2). It can happen again. Would like to see if Salisbury’s Dustin Johnson can get a medical redshirt year, though. Once upon a time you could get a medical redshirt if playing four games of a 10-game football season. Otherwise, his college career is done.

Don’t go away mad, just … Anyone notice the midseason cancellation of the Lawrence/Macalester game? Lawrence needed the date to make up its conference game against Illinois College, which was postponed after an IC soccer student-athlete drowned on campus. Ignominious end to Dennis Czech’s coaching career.

Worst predictions ever: Hmm, so someone predicted F&M would go 10-0. (Yeah, someone who writes for this site.) The Diplomats need a win Saturday against Gettysburg to finish 5-5. The quarterback whom we were told “dominated” the Centennial last year has completed just 42% of his passes and thrown four TDs compared to 11 interceptions. Yay, hyperbole. Guess dominated is a relative term — he completed 48% of his passes last year. Must be something in the water — the local paper apparently wrote a story today under the headline “Diplomats on Brink of Dream Season.” Guess “nightmare” was too big to fit in the space. No seriously, here’s the story. If I were editing that story, I’d have said something like “Diplomats Hope to Salvage Season.”

That’s all I got. Now over to Gordon.