Conference coaches’ polls almost always throw out at least a few puzzlers a year, usually at the bottom of the standings. For the most part, top picks are defensible, and certainly the coaches have a good idea of what to expect from teams in their conference. But sometimes things don’t add up.
Take the last-place pick in the USA South. I would be very surprised if USAC newcomer Maryville follows up on the near-unanimous eighth-place pick it was voted. This is Tony Ierulli’s third season with the Scots after taking over a program that had a 12-game losing streak. They were 2-8 in his first season and 5-4 last year. Even though the USAC looks like a conference on the rise, Maryville will be more than competitive. Even if they don’t win a single road game because of the travel distances, the road to Tennessee goes both ways, and I can see Averett, Greensboro, Ferrum and Methodist each having trouble. The Scots could also pick off a win at North Carolina Wesleyan.
Paying your dues? Maybe. But then again, the PAC slotted Thomas More fifth in the league’s first year with seven teams. That seems reasonable, although I might have put them fourth considering the coaches changes at Waynesburg and Westminster (Pa.).
I don’t see Lycoming finishing seventh in the MAC. Last year was an aberration. I really think you have to throw out the year immediately following the death of a player or an assistant coach, and we’ve seen it happen more than once. Last year was not indicative of where the Lycoming program is and I wouldn’t pick them any lower than fourth.
I also have to think Catholic will do better than last place in the ODAC, with Tom Clark able to get a full recruiting class in and the anticipated return of wide receiver Nick Bublavi. I’ll be honest — I saw them play once last year and they were truly awful. But history won’t repeat itself.
On the other hand, the NCAC, OAC and PAC had Hiram, Heidelberg and Bethany coming in last, and it’s hard to argue with any of those picks.
Then again, no poll is perfect. Even our own preseason Top 25 saw Wooster slide in at No. 25. I think the No. 4 pick they got in the NCAC preseason poll is more reasonable.
I do think many of these coaches and media polls in the leagues are as accurate a guess as you can make.
I do wonder if they look at the schedule when voting, though. In the NCAC, there are five haves and five have-nots. In looking at the schedule, it’s quite plausible that a have-not could finish 4-3 ahead of a 3-4 have, based on schedule.
I know some leagues allow coaches/SIDs to vote for their own shool, and some don’t.
Which is the better way?
Catholic was awful last season, but should be much better than a 7th place team in the ODAC. They had a roster full of freshman last year and little upper class experience. Not only does Nick Bublavi return this year, but 3 other players who would have been seniors in 2004 also return, including 2 of those who have also gained ODAC postseason honors in 2003. However, Catholic hasn’t really deserved any votes of confidence after a 0-10 season, but Tom Clark isn’t the type of coach to let what happened in 2004 repeat itself.
Maryville will surprise a lot of USAC coaches if they voted them dead last.
More on the subject out of the NCAC. Thanks to “Vince McMahon” for posting this link on Post Patterns regarding Allegheny’s reaction to getting picked fifth in the league.
http://www.meadvilletribune.com/story.asp?id=4328
I’m not sure whether or not maryville will finish as low as projected, but one thing is for sure. With teams like shenandoah and christopher newport its a looong way to the top for alot of teams in the conference, not just maryville, even if it is their first year.
Kalamazoo in the MIAA, who has struggled in the recent past should show some improvement. With a new coach who has serious intentions to turn the program around, they should build a strong base, still not a contender though
Don’t laugh, but I also think that Coast Guard may fair better this year than they did last season. The Bears were very close to a .500 season in 2004 and I think that the team will pick up where they left off after 2003 and begin to win games again (like the glory days of 1996/1997). I also think that moving to the NEFC in 2006 will be a brilliant move as the USCGA will be much more competitive in the New England Football Conference than in the tougher Liberty League.
I should specify that by “very close to a .500 season in 2004” I meant that several games were decided by only a few points and could have been Coast Guard victories and not losses.
CGA may be more competitive in the NEFC but entering one of the weakest conferences in Division III isn’t going to make them any better in their region or the country.
I agree. To be honest, if a program is looking to build their prestige and build their competitiveness, they need to start small with conference championships. If CGA can win the NEFC a few times over 10-15 years, then they can begin to build up a program that can be competitive on a regional/national level.
“If CGA can win the NEFC a few times over 10-15 years, then they can begin to build up a program that can be competitive on a regional/national level.”
If you think so. But nobody else who has won the NEFC has been competitive on that level.
You’re right, Pat… I’m saying in a best case scenerio. Or rather, that would be my plan if I were the athletic director at the Coast Guard Academy (which I’m not, sigh…).
Lycoming will be back on top this year. The offensive line will be retooled around two returning starters, Baltz and Murphy. They have a couple of D-II transfers on the line that will contribute big time. Delaware Valley will get a reality check when they visit Williamsport this year.
The Augsburg Auggies will be at the top of the MIAC conference at the end of the season. The offense will be unstoppable with the addition of D-II transfer, tailback Garry Ashby (5’8 210lbs) of Concordia (St. Paul), and a juco transfer named Demarcus Williams (5’9 225lbs), RB/LB. If what I am hearing is true 1st team All-MIAC QB Marcus Levesseur will be converted into a wide receiver this season to better utilize his athleticism better. He has already proven himself this past season with (267.8 all purpose yards per game). The 1st game against NO. 24 Wartburg will be the first test for the new coach Frank Haege and the Auggies.
Wow, this became the scrub pub thread really fast. 🙂
I’m not sure how much effort is put into the preseason polls or their accuracy. But even if everyone votes, is six or seven people (in some conferences) enough of a sample size to get a good read on a conference? Usually, if the seven people are the league’s coaches, they have a good idea of who will do what … but then you are looking at the possibility of incorporating personal feelings, politics, voting for friends’ teams in the vote. Or simply, even if everyone is honest, two guys down on one team can throw a team three spots down the rankings or something. And of course, when a coach can’t vote for his own team, or thinks it’s classy not to do so, or doesn’t want the No. 1 bullseye on it’s back, that results in teams getting No. 1 votes in conferences you just know should have a unanimous leader.
The d3 polls I really like are the ones that give each coach one vote and each SID one vote, to double the number of votes without bringing in voters who don’t know the teams.
I always enjoy when there’s an honest surprise in a poll … often they are just last year’s ranks rehashed.
All that said, preseason polls are a fun way to get the juices flowing. There’s no harm in having them, whether they are accurate or not.