We’ve predicted every Stagg Bowl since Stagg Bowl XXVII, and that year we were one of the few groups east of the Rockies to correctly predict Pacific Lutheran would beat Rowan.
We’re going to rest on those laurels … well, basically forever. We’ve been right every year except 2003, when St. John’s got it done against Mount Union against very long odds. Here’s what our assorted staff and contributors see happening Saturday in Stagg Bowl XXXIII:
Pat Coleman — D3football.com Publisher, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I have some trepidation picking against Mount Union, but I’m going to. There’s just too much diversity in the UW-Whitewater offense to expect Mount Union to be able to stop everyone, whether it’s Justin Beaver, whom everyone knows about, to Derek Stanley, who, while the fastest, might not even be the best wide receiver on his team. (That would be Jim Leszcynski, who started the season as the No. 1 receiver but has been caught by Stanley.) And don’t forget tight end Pete Schmitt, as well as the work of an offensive line led by Brady Ramseier and Max Sakellaris. I seem to remember last week saying this group would have its hands full against Wesley. While that didn’t happen, I mean it this time. Now, Mount Union is no pushover, to be sure, and the secondary of UW-Whitewater will be tested. The bend-but-don’t-break defense can’t even afford to bend. If they do, expect a steady dose of running back Nate Kmic, like last week, and see Mount Union try to shorten the game. But in the end, many Mount Union games end in laughers when the opponents get outcoached. The margin of coaching will not be as significant as in previous Stagg Bowls.
UW-Whitewater 35, Mount Union 34
Keith McMillan — Around the Nation Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I’m still not 100% sure how I feel about this game, but I do think we’re looking at two teams whose skill position players are lauded but have equally important interiors. The game might be decided by the UW-Whitewater offensive line against the Mount Union front six, and both have passed several tests during the season. I think we’ll see some scoring, but we can throw out the 40 points and 500 yards each offense averages. In the second half, the defensive cream will rise to the top, led by Mount linebacker Mike Gibbons. Although Whitewater appears to be an unstoppable train right now, the Purple Raiders are more well-rounded and better on defense, so I’ll take my swing.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 22
Pat Cummings — Mid-Atlantic Region Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I am one of the few that can say I have seen both teams play this season. That being said, I could regale you with statistics and facts and historical tidbits. But all I provide is simple conjecture. The high-powered Whitewater offense will get its points, but don’t let Mount’s low point total against a solid Rowan defense make you think the Purple Raiders are punchless against Whitewater. The Warhawks won’t score as much as you think as the Mount defense, paced by Mike Gibbons, pulls through when it counts most, providing the foundation for an eighth Stagg Bowl championship.
Mount Union 27, UW-Whitewater 21
Gordon Mann — Contributor, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
2004 Stagg Bowl predictions champ
Before last year’s postseason I wrote this about the WIAC playoff reps: “I know it seems like you play Mount Union or St. John’s every year, but if you’re the best conference in the country at some point you’re going to have to beat these teams. The best team in the best conference has to be the best team in its playoff region occasionally, right?” Well, now the best team in the WIAC will be the best team in the country, though by a thin margin.
UW-Whitewater 28, Mount Union 24
Adam Johnson — West Region Columnist
The Warhawks of UW-Whitewater must feel like they’re at a McFadden and Whitehead concert singinging along to the hit “Ain’t no stopping us now.” The Warhawks have rolled over some of the most prolific programs in Division III history and their reward is the synonym for Division III excellence–Mount Union. This clash of purple pride will showcase a powerful Whitewater offense against a stingy Mount Union defense. With a deep threat in Derek Stanley, a smash mouth runner in Justin Beaver and a “Cool Hand Luke†quarterback in Justin Jacobs, the Warhawks will get their points. If their defense can put on a show like they did against St. John’s they complete their improbable run and hoist the coveted Walnut and Bronze.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 24
Tom Wilson — East Region Columnist
Three years from the Purple Raiders last championship in 2002. I think this is they year Mount Union wins their eighth title. I expect a great game.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21
Ron Boerger — South Region Columnist
UW-W is on an incredible roll, but MUC has history and tradition on their side. UW-W is rolling offensively, MUC seems to have turned up the defensive effort late in the season. UW-W has great receivers and MUC has an emerging star in Kmic. Every time I’ve picked against Larry Kehres’ boys, I’ve ended up wrong. They’re 6-1 in the Stagg Bowl, but seem vulnerable this year. I think the Raiders will relish the underdog role they find themselves in. Stagg Bowl Most Outstanding Player Nate Kmic rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21
Tradition means nothing ? What has happened in the past doesn’t matter ?
55 AND 54 consecutive game win streaks speak differently, as does the 7-1 title game record. Knowing how to win, adapt to the situation, and being in a proper mental state despite what’s happening all come into play in any game … let alone one of this magnitude. You don’t build what Mount Union has with those things being empty words and meaningless expressions. I wonder how many of the people making these comments have actually PLAYED the game on any level, let alone the collegiate level.
Mount Union – 38
Whitewater – 24
My prediction!
One heck of a football game and a whole lot of respectful Mt. Union fans cheering their 2005 Team Football team on. Win or lose we will as always show respect for others. We have our share of bad apples just like all teams do. When you have the tailgating going on your bound to have one or two jerks causing a bad image for the good fans. Just like this website has just a few bad people making comments about these two Great Football Programs.
Iknowitall:
Statistics do not win football games, but after 14 games they can be pretty good predictors of future performance. I suggest you go back to the home page of D3football and use the NCAA Stats link to check out the 2005 stats. The NCAA ranks team performance in 12 categories. UW-W and/or Mount Union are nationally ranked (in the top 35) in 9 of those 12. This 2005 Mount Union team ranks ahead of UW-W in 8 out of the 9 categories. UW-W wins this stats comparison in turnover margin only. Your zeal for your team is commendable, but I believe both teams have a good “chance” in the Stagg Bowl.
Exactly. Well put. Let’s just all get real – it’ll be a great game. I’m just curious after the final score, which people are going to be eating their own crow.
I’ve said all along, close game, two great teams.
and Jim, hopefully you find that the Whitewater fans respectful as well and not take some of these inane comments seriously. Because there are some of us out there.
Remember: More often than not, the team with the fewest turnovers wins the game. That is definitely not a stat to disregard in my humble opinion.
this will not be a game. The Warhawks will scream loud and long. UW-W 52 MU 10
I love how unrealistic these scores are coming from UW-W fans. Give a 2nd rated defense some credit no matter how good your offense is. I hope Mount beats UW-W at there own game and has an offensive explosion, unfortunatly I think it will be closer than that.
Mount Union 35
UW-W 28
Pierre blows by the DB’s for 2 TD’s and Nate has 2 rushing TD’s.
Go RAIDERS!
All:
I can be confusing for two reasons. One, I have no guts. I like everyone, and I don’t mean that I’m afraid of insulting someone by not picking them. I mean I like what I see when I see teams playing at this high a level. I see a lot of good in them and not many weaknesses. That makes either team hard to pick against, even though the nature of making picks means you must ruffle one side’s feathers by “slighting” or “overlooking” them. Predictions are something we’ve done this year more than ever, and it’s basically just to get the conversation started — something we can all agree the blog has been successful doing. No one can predict how everything will turn out, and if we could, there’d be no need to watch the games. Being wrong is usually more fun than being right.
Honestly, having seen Whitewater and Wesley with my own two eyes, I thought that could be a matchup for the ages, especially Whitewater’s O-line and Wesley’s D-line. As we all know, it wasn’t.
Maybe I’m guilty of getting a good feeling about teams I’ve recently seen or talked to. But I’d still rather get opinions from someone who has seen several teams and has something to compare it to than a big ‘ol homer who always thinks his team is going to win. Even when that is the case, it’s not like it takes thoughtful consideration to tell us how awesome your favorite team is. Everyone (except Philly fans) thinks their favorite team is ultra-cool, and in the end, most of us are wrong.
So it’s not a big deal if our picks mean nothing to you; they don’t mean all that much to us either. It’s just conjecture/gut feeling/analysis … to get the conversation started. Some people put more time into them than others, but in all cases, you should just take them for what they’re worth. “Expert” doesn’t mean “Way smarter than you,” it means “spends time watching/comparing/caring about more than one team, therefore I should be able to offer some perspective that you don’t already have.”
Even when winging it, I think most of our staff has been correct often enough to have earned their credibility, and I think people who know the game in Division III would agree. But at the same time, if you’re going to step to the predictions plate, you’re going to swing and miss plenty.
As I often say, I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again. But right now I’m right. 🙂
The last time MTU gave up over 50 points was a Triple OT win vs. John Carroll in 1999 (57-51).
The last time MTU gave up over 50 points in a 4 Quarter Game was Nov 17th 1962 in a 0-53 loss to Akron.
I don’t think the Warhawks will go that high this weekend. Especially this year where MTU is only giving up 9.0 points a game (12.75 a game in the playoffs).
Just not going to happen.
IKnowitall – “What has Mount Union showed this year that really even gives them a chance against UWW?”
Obviously you are not familiar with the OAC where every year any of the top three teams could make a run at the national title, and the fourth and fifth teams would advance past the first round. Lucky for the other conferences, the NCAA only accepts two teams from the OAC, and these two teams meet prior to the title game. This would be an all OAC title game if Captial would have been placed on the other side of the bracket than Mount Union.
MUC – 24
UWW – 21
lilpeds
I have no doubt in my mind that the WW fans are every bit as respectful as the good MUC fans. As I said earlier. It’s always just a few bad ones that cause the wrong picture to be painted.
Good Luck to both teams!
52 – 10 are you even familiar with reality? The #2 defense in the country practices daily against the #1 offense in the country and you think they’ll give up 52 points! Even if they don’t win it won’t be a 42 point game.
In other words, in a lot of these matchups, I can see either team winning. You know the old saying ‘if we played 10 times …” The great thing about football is you only get to do it once.
So even though I can see things going UW-W’s way just as I can see things going MUC’s way, nobody wants to hear that as your prediction. Even if you don’t take a stand in your words, you have to put up a score that says “here’s what I think.”
It is what it is. Games like this often come down to who can run the ball better, who can stop the run/play great defense and who can generate turnovers … that’s true and all, but it makes for a lame-sounding predicition.
Still, I won’t back off my Mount Union by a hair pick even though I think Whitewater is more talented.
And for the record, we may pat ourselves on the back when we’re right, but if you look at the stuff that I write, it is frequently (and justifiably) self-deprecating, and the year-in-review has included the categories “we got these right” and “we got these wrong.” Don’t play us like we’re only telling the side of the story that makes us look cool.
It’s quite possible that I’ve never picked the right Stagg Bowl winner. I must’ve hit MUC-Trinity in ’02 …
D3Keith:
Excellent points! We can’t forget “intangibles” too… battle of field position, weather, injuries, etc.
If these 2 squads played ten times, the series might be 5-5 and nothing would get resolved. As you correctly point out, they play once. Just like the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. So what if Ohio State played the “perfect” game? They did it when it mattered.
So, good luck to both schools and I can’t wait for the matchup this weekend!
Ah,
I meant to sign my post “Keith Kerry.”
Flip-floppin’ in ’05 baby-baby!
UWW-27
MUC-17
Looks like weather will play a part in this game!
Whitwater by at least two touchdowns.
D3Keith,
I’m sure you know that I wasn’t calling you out for picking MUC over UWW. That is your choice. My question is what changed from the beginning of the playoffs when you picked them to win it all? Certainly nothing WW has done on the field this playoff run. If it is because of the intangible that they have never been to the dance before, than, ok. but you knew from the beginning as well. Maybe it is because the opponent is MUC which is new info you didn’t have before and that would make sense as to why you re-evaluated your decision.
You’ll have to forgive some of our overzealous UW fans. As with the football team itself, this will be our first trip to the Stagg and some are a bit pumped up. As has been said, for the most part, UW fans are very respectful. Don’t let a few bad apples spoil your opinion of us fans from Wisconsin. This has all the earmarks of a fantastic showdown between two very talented and excellently coached D3 football teams. Good luck to all involved and GO HAWKS!!
Whoever posted that they want to see someone other than Mount Union to win really has no clue…considering St. John’s and Linfield have taken the last two years.
The only way to truly appreciate seven championships is to not get another one for three years…
And these blowout scores are ridunkulous…get real people.
D3Keith – speaking of ’02 Trinity and intangibles, who would have ever thought drinking on the riverwalk would be an intangible.
Whitewater 24, Mt. Union 21
Never seen Mt. Union play so this is pure speculation and wishful thinking. Does have the makings of a close one from all that I have read.
This Mount team recalls how it felt to walk off the field after the MHB game last year and vowed not to end another season that way
Muc 38
WW 28
=66 RIP Bro
wiac watcher,
well, I was responding to three or so posts that called me out by name and/or quote. And it’s cool.
My feeling at the beginning was that Whitewater could be the most talented team in the playoffs (and I’ve been known as a WIAC overrater) and could — could — defeat St. John’s and Linfield.
However, I think this matchup plays into Mount Union’s hands in that Whitewater loves to run, Mount Union has a great run defense. Both teams have the skill kids and secondaries to play with each other, so I’d say unless one dominates the other in the trenches, it should be a good game that comes down to second-half defense and lack of turnovers.
That is exactly Mount Union’s strength … to say nothing of an offensive line that has started four of the five for 27 games now.
Mount Union’s not as sexy, if you will, as some of their past teams, but they won’t beat themselves. They will have to be straight up overpowered … I have seen it happened once (UMHB last year) so it’s not impossible …
That’s really all that’s changed, is the matchup. I honestly think it could go either way by no more than 10 points (17 if some freak stuff happens), but if it comes down to bad weather, playing run defense and not making mistakes … as great as I think UW-W is, that’s MUC’s game.
But I’ve been wrong before. A lot.
Also, don’t overlook that while this is Berezowitz’s first trip to Salem with this team, he’s been there like the past 5 years as part of the D3 committee, the Linfield trip was a dry run for a long away trip against a big-time opponent and the guy has quarterbacked a national champion. He knows how things are run.
Conversely, most of the people who actually got run for the last Mount Union team to win it are gone, as are many of the key guys from the last Salem team.
I think that helps even out the intangibles, and I think a WIAC team and a team coming out of that West bracket this year has seen enough opponents that should intimidate them … no intimidation on either side by “tradition” or “size” or whatever … as one of my coaches somewhere along the way said, blow up your guy the first play or two of the game, then tell him it’s gonna be like that all day.
That’s much more intimidating than a name on a jersey.
FWIW (for what it’s worth)
sitlux,
you’re funny. I think that’s why I got that pick right. So, um, thanks Roy?
(actually thinks that was all a shame)
Don Hansen predicts Whitewater 35 and Mount Union 14 and he’s a pretty good prognosticator.
Prognosticator – Perhaps
Knowledgeable about DIII ?????
Hansen sucks as a band and as a prognosticator.
Thanks, Keith, that was the info I was looking for. IMHO, however, don’t agree with the point that WW loves to run. It is only 1/2 of our very balance offense. They may have some success shutting down the run, (although SJU had a great rush defense as well,) but not for 4 quarters and when they do, WW just passes! What makes this team unusual for me is that most teams run and then pass when needed. This teams execution for both has given them the luxery of not caring which way they go. Pass or run, doesn’t really matter to them. And let’s not forget that WW’s defense has only allowed approximately 77 yards rushing on average in their 4 playoff games if my math is right. MUC having the better rush defense could be debated. Also giving the bad weather intangible to MCU doesn’t work for me either as the game against Wesley surely proved. Got 4 by air and 3 by foot in some pretty lousy conditions. Anyway, just a few of my thoughts. Thanks for talking with me. I always respect the opinions of D-3.com. Will be a great game but got to have faith in the Hawks and how far they have come and that they will find a way to win this game. Good luck to both teams, no injuries and safe travels to all.
everyone face it. Whitewater can’t be beat and their defense is strong and with Stanley, Jacobs, Beaver and Jimmy all on offense Whitewater can’t be stopped. 14-0. if they don’t win I will be amazed. Mount Union is solid but Whitewater is better. We beat the number 1 and 3 team
Well you don’t really know who the #1 team is until the end of the year. Polls are opinions by sportswriters who have their favorite teams as well. If Mount wins then they are actually the #1 team in the country and all that hot air about the West bracket being the best will certainly have been deflated and proven to be untrue.
And visa versa, of course!!!
OU#25,
If pools are “opinions by sportswriters who have their favorite teams”…then I guess all the writers favorite team this year was Linfield.
I don’t know how you can say that it’s “hot air” about the west being the toughest and deepest bracket in the palyoffs. It’s pretty clear that the west was the toughest bracket to advance in.
However, that doesn’t mean squat because it all comes down to this Saturday.
Unless UWW falls all over themselves and turn the rock over to MUC then I don’t see how the Warhawks lose this game.
excuse me….”polls”
IKnowitall
Have you EVER played football, other than playing X BOX? Coach K will have the boys ready to go!
MUC 27
WW 17
Ready or not, I think it is UWW by 14
Augie had a great team this year that was mentally and physically tough, talented, focused and hungry. MUC won 44-7, mainly on the strength of their o-line and a frosh rb who scampered for 361 yards. People who are counting MUC out are just INSANE! I’d be furious if I were a UWW fan, with all these blabbermouths helping to motivate the Purple Raiders. D-1 atheletes? MUC has ’em too, even recruited a transfer for the wide-out position. Wow! This is gonna be an interesting game. Good luck to both teams.
p.s. If I’d have seen a UWW game, I’d feel more comfy in making a prediction. The only point is this: These are both great teams, and it’s surprising to me that so many people are so confident in what the outcome will be.
They do not know how to act…..they have NEVER been here before.
saidentary
“even recruited a transfer for the wide-out position”
Please read this article and then explain how MTU recruited Garcon:
http://www.d3football.com/features.php?feature=84
Team from Cheeseland 21
Team from Ohio 12
Normally a team that is new to the playoffs is lucky to make to the 2nd round. However this team is abnormal. They’ve won impressively in the post season taking down the 2003 Champ, SJU, and the 2004 Champs, Linfield. I also expect them to beat the 2002 champs, Mount Union.
Come on with this stats crap. We all know UWW offense is light years better then Mount Unions. How can you compare Offense/Defensive stats when they have no common oppenents and play in different leagues. Lets keep it real here. UWW defense is better too. If Mount Union tries to play smash mouth football game will be over real fast. Jacobs is gonna carve up that secondary Saturday especially if there is snow. Ask Wesley how they did on the snowy field against UWW Div 1 athletes.
I am so glad there are so many know it alls. I guess my concern is which MUC team shows up. When they are sharp they are near impossible to beat but the offense in particular has been uneven this year. During the middle of the season, they did not look like the MUC teams that we have been used to seeing. Then they turned it around. Fortunately they have been on a roll in the playoffs. The defense has been extremely impressive. Looking at the stats it was interesting to see finally a team that is more penalized than MUC!
You know about stats and how they lie, but since we got nothing else to really go on, I will go with MUC since it wins the battle of the numbers, as long as the ‘good offense’ shows up.
kirasdad,
oh……yeah….. I see that he contacted THEM. OOPS!! My bad! Please accept my apologies. Thanks for the clarification. The statement, “even recruited a transfer for the wide-out position,” was ignorant.
The article even said that MUC historically hasn’t had that many transfers. Please excuse me while I go wipe the egg off my face that I was eating as a side dish with the crow.
Now I have black feathers stuck in my teeth too.
Ah yes, this promises to be a classic matchup between an established power (Mt. Union) and an upstart on the rise (UW-W). With all the purple and black flying in the breeze, it wouldn’t surprise me if Prince came to Salem and did the halftime show. Let’s have fun out there and for those of us who can’t make it, we’ll be tuned in to ESPN2!
After seeing how much our guys were running THROUGH the Wesley players rather than around them, I feel we’re going to see some amazing play out of our Hawks. On many runs by Justin Beaver, and one punt return I remember, the Hawks drove the Wesley defenders right into the ground with a good ol’ fashion stiff arm. They’re hungry and aggressive and I see them coming out as pumped as ever.
WW 42 MUC 24
UWW – 28
MUC – 18
I feel it’s going to be similar to last year’s Stagg. Not as much scoring as was expected due to good defense. Now that I’ve said that it will probably be 48-38.