Stagg Bowl XXXIII predictions

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We’ve predicted every Stagg Bowl since Stagg Bowl XXVII, and that year we were one of the few groups east of the Rockies to correctly predict Pacific Lutheran would beat Rowan.

We’re going to rest on those laurels … well, basically forever. We’ve been right every year except 2003, when St. John’s got it done against Mount Union against very long odds. Here’s what our assorted staff and contributors see happening Saturday in Stagg Bowl XXXIII:

Pat Coleman — D3football.com Publisher, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I have some trepidation picking against Mount Union, but I’m going to. There’s just too much diversity in the UW-Whitewater offense to expect Mount Union to be able to stop everyone, whether it’s Justin Beaver, whom everyone knows about, to Derek Stanley, who, while the fastest, might not even be the best wide receiver on his team. (That would be Jim Leszcynski, who started the season as the No. 1 receiver but has been caught by Stanley.) And don’t forget tight end Pete Schmitt, as well as the work of an offensive line led by Brady Ramseier and Max Sakellaris. I seem to remember last week saying this group would have its hands full against Wesley. While that didn’t happen, I mean it this time. Now, Mount Union is no pushover, to be sure, and the secondary of UW-Whitewater will be tested. The bend-but-don’t-break defense can’t even afford to bend. If they do, expect a steady dose of running back Nate Kmic, like last week, and see Mount Union try to shorten the game. But in the end, many Mount Union games end in laughers when the opponents get outcoached. The margin of coaching will not be as significant as in previous Stagg Bowls.
UW-Whitewater 35, Mount Union 34

Keith McMillan — Around the Nation Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I’m still not 100% sure how I feel about this game, but I do think we’re looking at two teams whose skill position players are lauded but have equally important interiors. The game might be decided by the UW-Whitewater offensive line against the Mount Union front six, and both have passed several tests during the season. I think we’ll see some scoring, but we can throw out the 40 points and 500 yards each offense averages. In the second half, the defensive cream will rise to the top, led by Mount linebacker Mike Gibbons. Although Whitewater appears to be an unstoppable train right now, the Purple Raiders are more well-rounded and better on defense, so I’ll take my swing.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 22

Pat Cummings — Mid-Atlantic Region Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I am one of the few that can say I have seen both teams play this season. That being said, I could regale you with statistics and facts and historical tidbits. But all I provide is simple conjecture. The high-powered Whitewater offense will get its points, but don’t let Mount’s low point total against a solid Rowan defense make you think the Purple Raiders are punchless against Whitewater. The Warhawks won’t score as much as you think as the Mount defense, paced by Mike Gibbons, pulls through when it counts most, providing the foundation for an eighth Stagg Bowl championship.
Mount Union 27, UW-Whitewater 21

Gordon Mann — Contributor, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
2004 Stagg Bowl predictions champ
Before last year’s postseason I wrote this about the WIAC playoff reps: “I know it seems like you play Mount Union or St. John’s every year, but if you’re the best conference in the country at some point you’re going to have to beat these teams. The best team in the best conference has to be the best team in its playoff region occasionally, right?” Well, now the best team in the WIAC will be the best team in the country, though by a thin margin.
UW-Whitewater 28, Mount Union 24

Adam Johnson — West Region Columnist
The Warhawks of UW-Whitewater must feel like they’re at a McFadden and Whitehead concert singinging along to the hit “Ain’t no stopping us now.” The Warhawks have rolled over some of the most prolific programs in Division III history and their reward is the synonym for Division III excellence–Mount Union. This clash of purple pride will showcase a powerful Whitewater offense against a stingy Mount Union defense. With a deep threat in Derek Stanley, a smash mouth runner in Justin Beaver and a “Cool Hand Luke” quarterback in Justin Jacobs, the Warhawks will get their points. If their defense can put on a show like they did against St. John’s they complete their improbable run and hoist the coveted Walnut and Bronze.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 24

Tom Wilson — East Region Columnist
Three years from the Purple Raiders last championship in 2002. I think this is they year Mount Union wins their eighth title. I expect a great game.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

Ron Boerger — South Region Columnist
UW-W is on an incredible roll, but MUC has history and tradition on their side. UW-W is rolling offensively, MUC seems to have turned up the defensive effort late in the season. UW-W has great receivers and MUC has an emerging star in Kmic. Every time I’ve picked against Larry Kehres’ boys, I’ve ended up wrong. They’re 6-1 in the Stagg Bowl, but seem vulnerable this year. I think the Raiders will relish the underdog role they find themselves in. Stagg Bowl Most Outstanding Player Nate Kmic rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

133 thoughts on “Stagg Bowl XXXIII predictions”

  5. First off…are there any tickets left? Ticketmaster said that there aren’t. HELP!!!!

    Being a UWW fan, I can easily see how MUC would have the upperhand in tradition and the whole “being there” aspect of the game. However…that tradition has to start somewhere, so who’s to say that it isn’t Whitewater’s turn to start that same tradition…or at least establish that mentality?!?

    But, let’s be realistic…it is Mount Union. I remember as an undergrad cheering on the Raiders to set the record for most consecutive wins. They are an amazing team with extreme power at their disposal.

    In the end, though…I am still going with my Warhawks. If the Lindfield game didn’t end the way it did, I would be a lot more indecisive. I sat at my computer listening to the Lindfield game over the web and was impressed with the last two minutes. It was at that point that I knew UWW had the resolve and the mettle to win it all. Coach Brez has done an amazing job with the kids this year, and like he has said “They aren’t cocky…their confident”. That’s the kind of confidence that beats Lindfield in their own house.

    So, d3football.com…with all due respect, your predictions mean nothing to me. You predicted Lindfield to go all the way, and UWW to bow out in the second round. You also predicted that the Wesley game wouldn’t be a blow out. So predict away and look at your skilled positions all you’d like…

    I’ll look at the heart of the UWW Warhawk football team.

    ~Ryan

  6. Ryan,

    We did not predict that Wesley would not be a blowout. Thanks for reading.

    “Even without an equipment miscalculation such as at Brockport State, Wesley could still get blown out, even if they hang onto the football.”

    I’ll look at the heart of our predictions.

  7. As for tickets, I’d be shocked if it were sold out. The one time it happened it was because one school was 90 minutes from Salem.

    Call 540-375-3004 to get the Salem Stadium ticket office.

  8. Sorry to monopolize the comments for the moment, but just checked with the Salem folks and there are plenty of seats available.

  9. This blog should be a treat.

    I say a tight game in the first half…14-14.

    Second half Whitewater grinds, forces a big turnover or two. Chaulk kicks the game winner with time expiring.

    31-28 Whitewater.

  11. MUC 31- WCC 24 Good luck to all players! May the game be all about the players! Injury free and fun, lets go Raiders!

  12. Actually, I was referring to this article: http://www.d3football.com/atn.php where the prediction was UWW 31, Wesley 28. Since we like quotes, I’ll just state that in the article above, the author stated

    “That said, I’ve got a strong feeling — and remember, I’ve been high on UW-Whitewater for quite some time — that the Wolverines are going to have a chance to win in Saturday’s fourth quarter.”

    I can see why it’s easy to digress into smack talk on this forum. BUT…amen dlippeil..let’s have an injury free game! You cheer for the raiders and Let’s Go Hawks!!!

  13. I dont think Whitewater can be stopped. The have beat Linfield and St. Johns. I don’t think Mount Union can keep up with the Warhawks and their highpowered offense through the whole game. If they can beat the defending champs I think they can probably beat Mount Union. It will be close at the beginning and through most of the first half but I think Whitewater will pull away later in the game.

    38-17 Whitewater. let’s go Hawks

  16. Early in the week I thought it would probably be a one score game either way. I no longer think that will be the case. This game will not be as exciting as either team’s quarterfinal.

    Mount Union 37
    Whitewater 20

    Purple Raiders will “Leave No Doubt”

  17. Wow. I’m not sure which shocks me more — the words “champ” next to my name or AJ quoting a Verizon commercial.

    – James Earl Jones (who also like Whitewater to win)

  19. I’ll just remind all the Mount Union Pickers that Whitewater is 14-0 and Justin Beaver is going to set a record Saturday for most yards in a season in the Whitewater win.

  23. Although MU has historically been a true powerhouse, I think they’ve met their match this year. I have played with some really good teams at Whitewater, but this team is really special. To top it off they proved themselves. They swept thru the toughest region by far. Not to say that Linfield wasn’t tought, but they saw what UWW brought to the table, an now it’s MU’s turn. GO HAWKS!!!

    UWW 38 MU 21

  24. Well yeah, plus they were showing his TD catch against Wesley on TV-19 while talking about the game. It had to be a sign.

  27. Brockwell, I hope with all the talk about high-quality Division III football you thought you were seeing this year that you are coming out to see the Stagg Bowl in person.

  29. Remember in any sport…great defenses beat great offenses….Saturday will not be the exception. Mount wins 34-24.

  30. I was just about to make that point, lilpeds! But the Hawks seem to take one step forward and two steps back as far as the “respect factor,” goes this year. Keith, you have me completely confused. Didn’t you predict that UWW would win it all at the beginning of the post season and then back track picking Linfield to win, and now, Mt. Union. Since the Hawks have done nothing but march through the toughest region in the playoffs all the way to the Stagg Bowl, doesn’t make sense to me. Anyway, it will come down to the defenses, I believe, and much is being touted about MUC’s defense and UWW’s may be being overshadowed once again so I will just throw out this. “The Warhawks have an amazing 16 interceptions and has forced 20 turnoevers in its four playoff games.” The defense has also scored 4 touchdowns and a safety! So those numbers say to me that Mt. Union’s offense will not score more points than UWW’s . I predict a Warhawk victory by 2 TD’s. Notice, I took the cowards way out and didn’t deal in actual numbers, LOL! GO HAWKS GO AND BRING HOME THE WALNUT AND BRONZE!!!

  31. wiac watcher-
    I agree Keith can be confusing. One of the “experts” will pick the right winner, and that’s all they need to claim how right they all are.

    MUC 24
    UWW 21

    Special teams will win this game!

  32. Over the years Mount Union has had its share of losses in the playoffs to eventual DIII national champions. For example, in 1985 & 1986 to Augustana, 1990 to Allegeny, 1992 & 1995 to U. of Wisconsin at Lacrosse and in 2003 to St. John’s. Likewise, in 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2002, Mount Union was able to earn the right to be called champions themselves. Mount Union players and fans have consistently acknowledged and respected the teams who have earned the DIII national title. If fact the hallmark of the Larry Kehres era a Mount Union has been to take one game at a time and respect every opponent whether they are 14-0 or 0-9. The highest respect is being given to this years University of Wisconsin – Whitewater team. The University of Wisconsin at Whitewater’s football team and fans have much to be proud of. Likewise, we Mount Union fans are proud of not only Mount Union’s history, but also Mount Union’s 2005 football team. I believe this years Stagg Bowl will be a battle between two excellent football teams with Mount Union coming out on top because, as in the past, on the day of the championship Mount Union will play the best 60 minutes of football.
    Congratulations to the University of Wisconsin Whitewater for an excellent season and good luck.
    GO RAIDERS, bring home number 8.

  33. “They” say that good defense beats good offense most of the time. With all due respect to the W-W D and the MUC O, this is kinda being billed as the W-W offense vs the MUC defense.
    Not this time! The MUC defense will not be able to stop the W-W offense enough times to win the game.

    W-W 27
    MUC 21

    BTW- I’ll be the 40 something, “bubba” looking guy who looks like he just came out of the mountains of Amherst County Virginia. 🙂

  34. I agree with Ron Boerger’s comment about Mount Union relishing their new role as underdogs. To be in a Mount Union uniform and be an underdog has to be a motivating factor. But I think Pat Cummings was closer on the score.

    MUC 28
    UWW 21

  36. I am an alumnus of St. John’s University class of 1975. I’ve only been to two Stagg Bowls, one in 2000 and the other in 2003. Mount Union defeated St. John’s 10-7 in the 2000 game. St. John’s defeated Mount Union 24-6 in the 2003 game. I found the Mount Union players and coaching staff to be just as gracious in victory as in defeat. There were some nice interactions with fans also. There was some good hearted ribbing about how bad St. John’s was going to be defeated in 2000 which I didn’t hear repeated in 2003. The thing that struck me about both games, however, was how much difficulty Mount Union had scoring against the zone defense. Based on their record it seemed odd to me that they couldn’t put up any more than 16 points combined in the two games. I don’t know how much zone Whitewater plays but if I were the Whitewater coach I would certainly want to review the films of the two St. John’s – Mount Union Stagg Bowls for game planning.

  37. First year coach Willy Will is the addition U-WW needed to boost them into the elite of D3 football. His expertise and insight into disecting film has clearly paid dividends as the season has progressed. I predict a future coach of the year on the staff of U-WW.

    UWW 35
    MUC 24

  38. This is a no-brainer.

    UW Whitewater 35 (at least)
    Mt. Union 21 (at most)

    If you can beat St. Johns, Central, Linfield and Wesley (not to mention go undefeated in the WIAC), then Mt. Union will get beat too.

    And yes, I think Mt. Union is a great team (one of the all time greats in any division as far as legacy / domination), but they are going to get stomped this weekend by an amazing UW Whitewater team.

  39. This is a no-brainer.

    UW Whitewater 35 (at least)
    Mt. Union 21 (at most)

    If you can beat St. Johns, Central, Linfield and Wesley (not to mention go undefeated in the WIAC), then Mt. Union will get beat too.

    And yes, I think Mt. Union is a great team (one of the all time greats in any division as far as legacy / domination), but they are going to get stomped this weekend by an amazing UW Whitewater team.

  41. Mt Union has a great tradition, but games aren’t because you’ve won before. They are won on the field and the Warhawks have the mojo.
    WW 27, MUC 17

    GO WARHAWKS,
    Steve

  42. Two outstanding teams!! I feel the difference will be coaching. Larry Kehres knows how to prepare his team for a national championship. He knows what his team will experience in Salem and has them ready. He’s a master at developing game plans and making mid-game adjustments. As long as Mount doesn’t lose the turnover battle, they’ll be returning to Alliance with another National Championship. Look for a low scoring first half as both teams feel each other out. Then look for Kehres’ adjustments in the second half to be the difference.

    Mount wins… 28-24

  44. I’ll pick UWW 28, Mt. Union 24. I’d like to see a different team win it this year. MU already owns 7 titles!

  45. The only thing that I know about Mount Union is that they have a very good team again this year and one that has a long history at the Stagg Bowl. Being a long time resident of Whitewater and having seen many Warkhawk teams, this one has something very special being put on the field every week.

    Hawks 34
    MU-23

  47. What has Mount Union showed this year that really even gives them a chance against UWW. The line is UWW by 4 I saw online. I just dont see them keeping this game close. Tradition don’t mean anything here. This is UWW with Div 1 caliber athletes playing a solid team with Div 3 caliber athletes. When I am out there I think I might book a room for next year too. Cause they will be back here.

  49. Mount Union has quite a few D1 caliber players, too, you know. This game will be a good one, regardless of who wins.

    MUC 27
    UWW 24
    in overtime

    Mount is far too good to be blown out and in saying so, I am taking nothing away from UW-W, who have likewise had a tremendous season!

    I agree with MUC78 100%. Very nicely stated.

  50. UKNOWNOTHING – Where to start with what MT. has shown….#1 in Yds. Per Game (Vaunted WW Offense is almost 30 YPG behind) #2 in Total Defense (WW didn’t make the top 30 and gives up 104 more YPG) #18 Rushing Offense (WW is #24 with 15 fewer YPG) #10 Rushing Def. (WW #27 with 22 more YPG given up) #19 Passing Offense (WW #30 with 15 fewer YPG) #6 in Passing Effeciency (WW not in the top 30) #7 Scoring Offense (WW #4 with 0.3 more PPG) #2 in Scoring Def. (WW #19 giving up 6 more PPG) Turn over margin goes to WW +24 -v- +7 (great Stat for WW!)

    I’m not putting WW down put come on “What has MT. showed this year…” I think the numbers speak a lot better than you do.

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