We’ve predicted every Stagg Bowl since Stagg Bowl XXVII, and that year we were one of the few groups east of the Rockies to correctly predict Pacific Lutheran would beat Rowan.
We’re going to rest on those laurels … well, basically forever. We’ve been right every year except 2003, when St. John’s got it done against Mount Union against very long odds. Here’s what our assorted staff and contributors see happening Saturday in Stagg Bowl XXXIII:
Pat Coleman — D3football.com Publisher, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I have some trepidation picking against Mount Union, but I’m going to. There’s just too much diversity in the UW-Whitewater offense to expect Mount Union to be able to stop everyone, whether it’s Justin Beaver, whom everyone knows about, to Derek Stanley, who, while the fastest, might not even be the best wide receiver on his team. (That would be Jim Leszcynski, who started the season as the No. 1 receiver but has been caught by Stanley.) And don’t forget tight end Pete Schmitt, as well as the work of an offensive line led by Brady Ramseier and Max Sakellaris. I seem to remember last week saying this group would have its hands full against Wesley. While that didn’t happen, I mean it this time. Now, Mount Union is no pushover, to be sure, and the secondary of UW-Whitewater will be tested. The bend-but-don’t-break defense can’t even afford to bend. If they do, expect a steady dose of running back Nate Kmic, like last week, and see Mount Union try to shorten the game. But in the end, many Mount Union games end in laughers when the opponents get outcoached. The margin of coaching will not be as significant as in previous Stagg Bowls.
UW-Whitewater 35, Mount Union 34
Keith McMillan — Around the Nation Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I’m still not 100% sure how I feel about this game, but I do think we’re looking at two teams whose skill position players are lauded but have equally important interiors. The game might be decided by the UW-Whitewater offensive line against the Mount Union front six, and both have passed several tests during the season. I think we’ll see some scoring, but we can throw out the 40 points and 500 yards each offense averages. In the second half, the defensive cream will rise to the top, led by Mount linebacker Mike Gibbons. Although Whitewater appears to be an unstoppable train right now, the Purple Raiders are more well-rounded and better on defense, so I’ll take my swing.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 22
Pat Cummings — Mid-Atlantic Region Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I am one of the few that can say I have seen both teams play this season. That being said, I could regale you with statistics and facts and historical tidbits. But all I provide is simple conjecture. The high-powered Whitewater offense will get its points, but don’t let Mount’s low point total against a solid Rowan defense make you think the Purple Raiders are punchless against Whitewater. The Warhawks won’t score as much as you think as the Mount defense, paced by Mike Gibbons, pulls through when it counts most, providing the foundation for an eighth Stagg Bowl championship.
Mount Union 27, UW-Whitewater 21
Gordon Mann — Contributor, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
2004 Stagg Bowl predictions champ
Before last year’s postseason I wrote this about the WIAC playoff reps: “I know it seems like you play Mount Union or St. John’s every year, but if you’re the best conference in the country at some point you’re going to have to beat these teams. The best team in the best conference has to be the best team in its playoff region occasionally, right?” Well, now the best team in the WIAC will be the best team in the country, though by a thin margin.
UW-Whitewater 28, Mount Union 24
Adam Johnson — West Region Columnist
The Warhawks of UW-Whitewater must feel like they’re at a McFadden and Whitehead concert singinging along to the hit “Ain’t no stopping us now.” The Warhawks have rolled over some of the most prolific programs in Division III history and their reward is the synonym for Division III excellence–Mount Union. This clash of purple pride will showcase a powerful Whitewater offense against a stingy Mount Union defense. With a deep threat in Derek Stanley, a smash mouth runner in Justin Beaver and a “Cool Hand Luke†quarterback in Justin Jacobs, the Warhawks will get their points. If their defense can put on a show like they did against St. John’s they complete their improbable run and hoist the coveted Walnut and Bronze.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 24
Tom Wilson — East Region Columnist
Three years from the Purple Raiders last championship in 2002. I think this is they year Mount Union wins their eighth title. I expect a great game.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21
Ron Boerger — South Region Columnist
UW-W is on an incredible roll, but MUC has history and tradition on their side. UW-W is rolling offensively, MUC seems to have turned up the defensive effort late in the season. UW-W has great receivers and MUC has an emerging star in Kmic. Every time I’ve picked against Larry Kehres’ boys, I’ve ended up wrong. They’re 6-1 in the Stagg Bowl, but seem vulnerable this year. I think the Raiders will relish the underdog role they find themselves in. Stagg Bowl Most Outstanding Player Nate Kmic rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21
Who is the Willy Will character that Pounds32 is talking about?
Ohh yeah,
U-WW big over the MUC purpler haters
Great article Pat.
Leaving later tonight for the game, hope the roads aren’t as bad on the way down as they are up here.
who’s got the better kicker and punter?
What I’ve seen out of the Whitewater kickers, it’s more inconsistency than anything. Chaulk has a good leg – made a 44 yarder against St. John’s. I believe that’s his season long. He has missed a couple extra points (69 for 74). He tends to come up clutch, though (12 for 15 FG’s) and overall is a reliable kicker.
As for the punter Nick Croak’s average per punt (34.3 yds), it’s a little decieving. He’s had 19 punts inside the 20, helping the UWW field position. He had a few against Linfield that were about 50. He kicks it high, too, allowing the gunners to get down there (like Stanley). Their net average is 32.5, so punt returners basically get very little.
That’s their kickers scouting report. I don’t know anything about MUC’s.
Special teams/field position will be big in this one, too.
It takes a darn good team to beat SJU 34-7, even with all of the SJU turnovers. The last team to beat the Johnnies like that was the 2001 MUC squad (I think 35-15 in the Natl semis). I haven’t seen that type of domination out of 2005 MUC squad. Considering those two factors I’d say it’s:
UWW 31
MUC 21
Hard to really compare punters. Firstly Mount Union only punted 38 times, but of that 27 were by the Soph who will punt if necessary Saturday. Matt Massaro is averaging 34.1 with eight inside the 20. His longest is 50 yards.
Mike Zimmerman is the field goal kicker. He is 12-19 and 74-78 on PAT’s. He is pretty consustant inside 30 yards. His longest is 40 yards. Hope that helps.
Don’t think anyone has asked this yet: If MUC had not dropped a regular season game this year, would they still be the underdog? Would UWW, having been the first team to run through the WIAC in a long time and with wins over Central, SJU, Linfield still be the favorite?
And when I say UWW is the favorite right now, I realize that is somewhat debatable, since the experts seem pretty divided. But based on posters comments and the line which someone said has UWW as a +4, they appear to be the favorite.
AS A wiac graduate of Platteville, I have no love for UWW. However, you cannot deny they are a great team by their playoff performance. Mount Union has tradition, but came from a soft bracket. i predict UWW will defend our conference in the tradition of UW lacrosse. They will win a close game and uplift the best D3 Conference in the USA. Tomorrow you fans and alumni of both schools can wear a purple finger twice in the same week. GO USA!
I think it is funny people are underestimating Mount. The OAC is by far the toughest conference in the country. You play 3-4 playoff caliber games before the playoffs even start. Mount can pull the “upset” this Saturday. They are a solid team……their defense will give the Warhawks trouble.
That loss was Mt. Union’s first regular season loss in 11 years and only their….. what, 3rd since 1996. No team is going to win every game. Sometimes those types of losses do nothing but motivate. We’ll see.
While some feel Mount may have had a “soft” bracket, I don’t think Capital and Rowan are doormats by any stretch of the imagination. Had Mount not opted to go for a number of 4th downs against Rowan, the score may have been more lopsided, but make no doubt of the Raiders domination. If I am not mistaken, they had the ball more than 40 minutes. In any event, you have to get ready to play every week, regardless of the team on the other side, and I imagine that is exactly what both teams are gearing up for tomorrow.
Congratulations to both schools and both conferences for fine years.
Once again with the toughest conference stuff?? Articles written on this site named the WIAC as the toughest conference…………… “The OAC is by far the toughest conference in the country. You play 3-4 playoff caliber games before the playoffs even start.” -RaiderJake………I’m not doubting the OAC is a tough conference, but you obviously have never seen true WIAC football. Never a blowout, never a bad game. Its not possible to beat a team 66-0 in the WIAC just because all are so evenly matched. This is a good reason why their isnt ever any undefeated teams in the WIAC, and a good reason why we only are able to get 1 team into the playoffs.
If Linfield cant outscore WW, how will Mount Union??? Talking to some of the players as well, no one on WW is afraid of this Mount Union D. Not a new challenge, especially with so many offensive weapons.
Do hope to see both teams bring their best.
UWW 38
MUC 21
“If Linfield cant outscore WW, how will Mount Union??? ”
Maybe because Mount Union is number 1 in total offense and post more points on average than UW-W does.
Alot of you do not like to hear numbers but seeing as the game hasn’t been played yet that is all we have to go on for now. And enough with the UW-W has so many offensive weapons, like we don’t? Pierre and Casto, two wideouts with 1000+ this year and Boehm who has about 500 in only 3-4 starts. Kmic is about to get 1000 yards for the PLAYOFFS. And Ibeh our fullback hasn’t had that much of an impact in the playoffs but being his last game ever I expect big things from him. And Jorris the QB is in the top 5 for QB effiency. I just had to mention that because all I hear is UW-W is unstoppable on offense when actually both teams have players with very similar stats.
I know this Mount Union talk is nuts. They have no chance tomorrow. Too bad Linfield cant play tomorrow in place the rematch would be epic although UWW would win by 2 touchdowns. If Coach Berewitz shows mercy it will only be 38-7. If he sticks the knife in it could be 65-7. I get sick of this Capital crap. they squeeked by two bad playoff opponents North Central and Wabash, hardly scored any points in those games. Then they roll up 34 on Mount Union and they should have won the game. You have to wonder how intimidated Mount Unions players are right now. You can see the fear in them and their coaches eyes. UWW is the USC of D3 football this year. Problem is Mount Union aint Texas more comparable to a Northern Illinois. WIAC is best confernence right now no doubht
One more thing Mount Unions offensive numbers were against much weaker competition. Look at Wesleys vaunted offense how much of an offensive explosion they have last Saturday in the Perk? UWW will be up and down the field Satuday. For any team looking to get to this level watch and learn how offenise football is played on Satuday. This freshaman running back for Mount Union, saturday he will be welcomed to WIAC football!!!! No John Carrolls, Capitals, or Ohio Norterns out here Saturday. Can you say speed and athletism!
Iknowitall whatever you are on pass it this way. Please go to muc.edu and read the pre game quotes, the team does not really sound that intimidated. I know how tough it must be for you to maybe admit this will be a good game and show weakness that your beloved UW-W might have a tough opponent but to say that they will win 65-7 is truely insane. I am cheering for Mount but I am not going to say they will win 65-7, I have more respect for the Warhawks’ and they would not be in the game if they were not good. So your comments just sure your immaturity and disrespect for our school.
UDon’tKnowAnything,
UWW = USC
MTU = NIU
WTF????
I think you need to quit drinking all that cough syrup. IF, UWW wins tomorrow, I will be the first one to congratulate you all, but jeez, have some objectivity when posting. This is just rediculous. Again, IF UWW wins, it will not be a blowout by any means.
MUCfan49…….So you think Mount Union has a better offense than Whitewater and Linfield??? I’m not sure if that’s what your saying, but if it is, your crazy. You guys are able to run up your numbers when you play teams like Heidelberg. We had no teams on our schedule like that this year. The one major blowout, and the worst team I believe we played all year was Lakeland College, a playoff team…….And by the way, we average more points than Mount Union. 42.1-41.8. Check the numbers next time.
Run Up The Score Warhawks!!!!
Having not seen you play it is hard to tell. But I am just talking about overall the consenus of these messages make it sound like Mount Union is incapable of putting a drive together. I was just stating that from the game notes it appears that Mount and UW-W have similar numbers in regards to each position, the one exception being that we have two RB’s over 1,000 and UW-W having one at 2,000 and not sure if #18 and #3 are RB or FB for you guys. My mistake on the point averages, got a little mixed up on who had more because I was just going off of memory on that one.
“If Linfield cant outscore WW, how will Mount Union??? “
Easy…don’t turn the ball over 4 times (1 for a TD) and you have a pretty good shot. WW created their own luck with some good D-Line play vs. Linfield in the turnover department but the Warhawks DB’s were being used all game long vs. Linfield.
Regardless I still like WW by 10
wildcat1144,
You just mentioned the Warhawks DB’s being used in the Linfield game. Does that normally happen or was that just a freak occurence. Mount likes to go deep to Pierre alot but Jorris has trouble getting it to him when he isn’t wide open. Even when he is it is hard, for example against Rowan, Pierre beat a DB by about 10 yards and Jorris threw it right to the Rowan player. But if the DB’s aren’t as fast then a deep ball to Garcon might be something Mount goes to alot tomorrow.
UWW DB’s are fast, and solid. The Linfield wideouts and obviously QB are off the charts. Their passing game is a thing of beauty. I couldnt imagine any secondary hanging with them.
Both #18 and #3 are our back-up RB’s. Travis Reuland #9 is our FB. Underrated FB at that.
The numbers may be similar between the teams, but I dont think the opponents are equal. Again, just opinion.
Go Warhawks!
Mount – 21
WWW – 13
know it all know we understand your thinking. IF you think LK is intimidated by any d3 team then we truly understand where you are coming from.
Right now LK is finalizing his game plan in the Wyndam hotel like he has done eight other times in the last 12 years. He has the best record in the history of college football. I don’t think he wil be the coach that is intimidated tomorrow.
anyone who says 13 points by uww has no clue what they are talking about
No disrespect at all to Mount Union. What they accomplished for last decade is incredible, probably unmatched, what UWW is striving for. But this UWW team is incredible, unbeatable machine. I hate to see a storied program take one like they will tomorrow but LK game plan wont make a differnce. You could take greatest coaching minds for the last 15 years and put them all on the sideline tomorrow but it wont matter………….
Dont downplay how good of a coach Bob Berezowitz is. He’s been around for a long time with good reason. I dont think coaching will win the football game tomorrow.
Ive been reading these for a little while now, and I’m so disgruntled by all the spam that I just had to log on and leave my own message. First of all, lets be realistic. Both of these football teams are exceptional, and a blowout will not occir on either end. Both coaches are exceptional in that they have advanced their teams to the National stage with a chance for a championship. These teams mirror one another in both offensive firepower and defensive presence. This will be a tight game from the onset, and it could go either way. Its going to be a game of momentum, all be it, a turnover, big special teams play, or otherwise. Being a former Raider player and excited fan ready to watch a great game of live high caliber football, my herat is obviously with MUC, however, UW-W can and will bring it, and Im just excited to be a part of it. So no more downplaying each others players, coaches, and supporting staffs. Just enjoy the game for what its billed to be….a National Championship! If I anyone knew who was gonna win, then we woudn’t be playing the game! Everyone is beatable on any given day, and may the best team win…..Nonetheless, GO RAIDERS!!!!!!!
One other thing…..It’s kind of sketchy to downplay the strength of the OAC….If you’ve noticed, the OAC has more playoff wins than any other conference in history. On the same note, the WIAC is a very strong conference as well, so I beleive conference strenghths negate one another. Also, many players who play national championship caliber D-III football become D-I caliber athletes by the time their careers are over. More and more D-III players are making their way to the league every year. I think this year, and these two teams are no exception. Hope its nice out tomorrow!!!! Enjoy the game…..wear purple!!!!!
MucATOAlum
If you dont like the comments, why are you reading them??? Everyone has their own opinion, and wants to back their team. Either MUC or UWW fans are pulling fortheir team, and are trying to prove what makes their team superior……If everyone was like you, their would be no purpose for a message board. No one would post anything.
WIAC was rated the better conference this year.
GO Warhawks!!!!
I agree that the WIAC is probably top-bottom the best conference in DIII, but the OAC is no slouch either (“No Judge, you’re a tremendous slouch”). The Top 4-5 schools in the OAC could probably win a first round game in any playoff year and our bottom 5 may not be anything to write home about, but seeing how JCU, ONU, CU are starting to beat up on each other and catch up to MTU (ONU took them this year if you haven’t heard) I think the OAC is getting even tougher.
Good Luck to both teams today and here is to an injury free, cleanly played win by the Raiders!
D3football.com declared Pat Cummings the D3football.com predictions champ with a projected final of Mount Union 27, UW-Whitewater 21.
We also would like to recognize MUCfan49, who was the first commenter who got the score correct.
Once again, the collective wisdom of the D3football.com experts, which picked Mount Union 5-4, was correct.