Monthly Archives: November 2005

Insider: Another week, another battle

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From week to week there are many factors that build up to every Saturday. The most essential component leading up to a game has to be preparation. A good week of practice is imperative to the success a team earns, and that goes for the whole team, not just the guys who step on the field on Saturdays.

The guys who give the first and second string teams a look everyday are often overlooked and taken for granted. The harder they work, the better they are making their teammates and team. It’s a hard role for many guys to accept considering many of them were the go-to-guys on their high school team.

Going into week ten and our conference championship game we knew we had to have a good hard week of practice as we faced North Central College. Led by the self- proclaimed “Hit Squad” (defensive scout team) and senior Bill Smigiel, our offense was provided with great looks all week which we greatly benefited from. The intensity and concentration of each practice was higher than usual as our setback last year in Naperville, IL was still instilled in our heads.

We had been waiting for November 5th for 364 days and the seniors had been waiting four years for a conference championship. It is always a thrill when two highly touted teams meet head-to-head because there is usually a lot on the line. Last Saturday was no exception. As time ran out Josh Patterson booted a 22 yard field goal giving us a 20-17 victory and conference championship.

It was a hard fought battle, filled with plenty of emotion and good football, the way a game should be played by two playoff caliber teams. No matter what outsiders may have seen during and after the game and what they had to say about it, the players on both sides of the ball played their hearts out for 60 minutes. Both teams came ready to play and went after it the entire game, garnering nothing but respect for the players on the field.

Coming off last weeks victory, we head into another battle that bears a great challenge steeped in tradition. This Saturday we head to Wheaton, Illinois to take on Wheaton College. This senior class has yet to walk away from this game with a ‘W’. This game has come down to the last minute with potential to win on the last play the past two years and we walked away empty handed both times. Anyone who follows CCIW football knows that this game breeds great football and this Augustana squad comes into this game recalling the anguish of too many recent setbacks to Wheaton.

Projecting the playoffs, take 2

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Welcome back to the game we annually call our playoff projections. This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, most of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight South teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Keep in mind, these are the NCAA’s criteria:
The following primary criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-wins index–only contests versus regional competition
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams (ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process).
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.

Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 9. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.

Delaware Valley Bracket
1. Delaware Valley (A)
2. Union (C)
3. Ithaca (A)
4. Rowan (A)
5. Hobart (C)
6. RPI (C)
7. St. John Fisher (C)
8. Curry/Fitchburg State (A)
This setup works so that there are not any conference rematches in first-round games. … We still have three Liberty League teams in because they all have decent numbers, but I think if RPI wins Saturday’s game against Union then Hobart will drop out. If RPI loses then RPI will drop out. Why? RPI already has a better regional winning percentage and Quality of Wins index, but Hobart has the head-to-head win. A win against Union will give them the automatic bid and a guaranteed slot. Union would have the win against Hobart on its résumé. … This committee is apparently giving a lot of weight to one game: Hobart over RPI. The win against a regionally ranked opponent gives Hobart a better regional ranking than St. John Fisher, even though SJF has a better regional winning percentage and better QOW. … If Rowan loses to Montclair this week, Cortland gets the automatic bid and Rowan is out.

Wabash Bracket
1. Wabash (A)
2. UW-Whitewater (A)
3. Mount Union (A)
4. Augustana (A)
5. North Central (C)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
7. Adrian/Albion (A)
8. Lakeland (A)
They will not rematch Augustana and North Central in the first round. Projected matchups: Lakeland at Wabash, MIAA winner at UW-Whitewater, North Central at Mount Union, Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana. … Stiff price for North Central lining up in the neutral zone on the blocked field goal at Augie. … UW-Whitewater was the No. 2 team in the West regional rankings. They wouldn’t be put up higher than No. 2 in the North.

Trinity (Texas) Bracket
1. Trinity (Texas) (A)
2. Thiel (B)
3. Ferrum (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (C)
5. Wesley (B)
6. Bridgewater (Va.) (A)
7. Hardin-Simmons (A)
8. Johns Hopkins (A)
Geography still dictates Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas). That puts Johns Hopkins at Ferrum. … Thiel still leads Ferrum in QOW and has the win against a regionally ranked opponent. Why is Ferrum ahead of Thiel in the regional rankings? … This has Wesley headed for its second-ever NCAA playoff game, both in the state of Texas.

Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Occidental (A)
4. Concordia-Moorhead (C)
5. Coe (A)
6. Monmouth (A)
7. Central (C)
8. Willamette (B)
Alright, Willamette, you have this spot for now. At 4-0 in-region with an 11.000 QOW you are in the last Pool B slot. At 4-1 in-region next week with a projected 10.000 QOW you won’t be, so the playoffs start a week early for you. (And if Pacific Lutheran beats Whitworth, the QOW for Willamette will fall even further.) … First-round matchups: Willamette at Occidental, Central at Linfield (no mud anymore), Monmouth at St. John’s (455 miles on NCAA map), Coe at Concordia-Moorhead (490 miles on NCAA map).

Who’s left? Our next Pool B team (i.e., the one waiting for Willamette to lose) is Washington and Jefferson. They were considered in Pool C but had a lower QOW than anyone selected in Pool C, save Hobart, which had the win against the regionally ranked team. Huntingdon next, as its QOW dove from 9.400 to 8.600 this week. The Maryville game, even if a win, will drive it even further down.

I have another separate playoffs post coming later, possibly tomorrow. I like that idea better.

Immediate thoughts on Week 10

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OK, so I’ve written in the past about my concerns about Rowan (Immediate thoughts on Week 7 and Week 9). Today my fears came true. Rowan couldn’t muster up enough offense (or, according to observers, much of a sense of urgency) in a 20-19 loss at William Paterson. When was the last time William Paterson was the lead story on D3football.com? Sept. 19, 2002, for a Mark Simon Feature on a pair of Pioneers who returned to football after returning from military service.

Funny, when I started to write that sentence, my assumption was “never” — but I checked it out.

Rowan needs to come out firing next week. They won’t get into the playoffs with two losses, not in their final two games. There might be a two-loss team that gets in the field somewhere, but not in this situation. Rowan wins and it’s in (beating both Cortland State and Montclair, the other two teams they’d be tied with). If Montclair wins, Cortland goes to the playoffs because Cortland beat Montclair.

Nice little 32-0 run, Whitewater. That was another one of the early scores that sent ripples through knowledgeable D-III fans.

Who’d have thought that we could have six potential playoff teams meeting at the Monon Bell, Cortaca Jug and Dutchman Shoes games next week? Cortaca won’t have any effect on whether either team makes the playoffs (Cortland’s at-large bid chances are a longshot at best, they wouldn’t even be the best two-loss team out there) but Ithaca is in and Cortland will be scoreboard-listening. RPI almost didn’t make it to this dance, however, needing a late TD to beat Rochester.

Capital had another great day on defense. In fact, if you throw out the Mount Union game, Capital has allowed just 7.6 points per game all season. Usually I’m not in favor of throwing out a game to make a point, but Capital has allowed just 11.4 points per contest even with that game, and shoot, for most of the past decade the Purple Raiders have been the Priceline of offense — you know, name your own score.

Only today did McDaniel refute my hypothesis that their 4-1 season could very well turn into 4-6. The Green Terror had lost four in a row before beating Muhlenberg today 13-6.

Ferrum clinched its first playoff bid since 1990, UW-Whitewater its first since 1997, and Johns Hopkins its first ever. Welcome to the show. See you on ESPNews in a week.

If Crown plays Southwest Assemblies of God and nobody reports a score, does it count?

E-mail of the day:

Below is the result of your feedback form. It was submitted by
K (xxxxxx@comcast.net) on Saturday, November 05, 2005 at 09:55:34 AM
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Subject: What About Rowan
Notes: I consistanly monitor your website and I think that it great, however you never write anything about Rowan football. Rowan has been at the top of Division III football for many years and you never give them any respect. I would like to see anything about Rowan football Thanks

I think the moral of the story is, don’t complain about lack of respect on Saturday morning. Save it for the blog. Ugh.