Welcome back to the game we annually call our playoff projections. This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, most of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.
In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight South teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?
First, the basics:
Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Keep in mind, these are the NCAA’s criteria:
The following primary criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-wins index–only contests versus regional competition
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams (ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process).
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.
Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 9. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.
Delaware Valley Bracket
1. Delaware Valley (A)
2. Union (C)
3. Ithaca (A)
4. Rowan (A)
5. Hobart (C)
6. RPI (C)
7. St. John Fisher (C)
8. Curry/Fitchburg State (A)
This setup works so that there are not any conference rematches in first-round games. … We still have three Liberty League teams in because they all have decent numbers, but I think if RPI wins Saturday’s game against Union then Hobart will drop out. If RPI loses then RPI will drop out. Why? RPI already has a better regional winning percentage and Quality of Wins index, but Hobart has the head-to-head win. A win against Union will give them the automatic bid and a guaranteed slot. Union would have the win against Hobart on its résumé. … This committee is apparently giving a lot of weight to one game: Hobart over RPI. The win against a regionally ranked opponent gives Hobart a better regional ranking than St. John Fisher, even though SJF has a better regional winning percentage and better QOW. … If Rowan loses to Montclair this week, Cortland gets the automatic bid and Rowan is out.
Wabash Bracket
1. Wabash (A)
2. UW-Whitewater (A)
3. Mount Union (A)
4. Augustana (A)
5. North Central (C)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
7. Adrian/Albion (A)
8. Lakeland (A)
They will not rematch Augustana and North Central in the first round. Projected matchups: Lakeland at Wabash, MIAA winner at UW-Whitewater, North Central at Mount Union, Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana. … Stiff price for North Central lining up in the neutral zone on the blocked field goal at Augie. … UW-Whitewater was the No. 2 team in the West regional rankings. They wouldn’t be put up higher than No. 2 in the North.
Trinity (Texas) Bracket
1. Trinity (Texas) (A)
2. Thiel (B)
3. Ferrum (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (C)
5. Wesley (B)
6. Bridgewater (Va.) (A)
7. Hardin-Simmons (A)
8. Johns Hopkins (A)
Geography still dictates Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas). That puts Johns Hopkins at Ferrum. … Thiel still leads Ferrum in QOW and has the win against a regionally ranked opponent. Why is Ferrum ahead of Thiel in the regional rankings? … This has Wesley headed for its second-ever NCAA playoff game, both in the state of Texas.
Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Occidental (A)
4. Concordia-Moorhead (C)
5. Coe (A)
6. Monmouth (A)
7. Central (C)
8. Willamette (B)
Alright, Willamette, you have this spot for now. At 4-0 in-region with an 11.000 QOW you are in the last Pool B slot. At 4-1 in-region next week with a projected 10.000 QOW you won’t be, so the playoffs start a week early for you. (And if Pacific Lutheran beats Whitworth, the QOW for Willamette will fall even further.) … First-round matchups: Willamette at Occidental, Central at Linfield (no mud anymore), Monmouth at St. John’s (455 miles on NCAA map), Coe at Concordia-Moorhead (490 miles on NCAA map).
Who’s left? Our next Pool B team (i.e., the one waiting for Willamette to lose) is Washington and Jefferson. They were considered in Pool C but had a lower QOW than anyone selected in Pool C, save Hobart, which had the win against the regionally ranked team. Huntingdon next, as its QOW dove from 9.400 to 8.600 this week. The Maryville game, even if a win, will drive it even further down.
I have another separate playoffs post coming later, possibly tomorrow. I like that idea better.
So who is the next Pool C on the list? Cal Lutheran? Capital?
Why would JHU play Ferrum instead of Thiel who is the next highest ranked opponent?
With Wabash listed as your first seed what happens if the unexpected happens. Like Depauw winning. Would WW be the #1 or would this go to MUC?
bluejay,
Yeah, I think Pat meant Hopkins at Thiel and Bridgewater at Ferrum. Makes sense seeding wise and geographically.
Yes, sorry. Thanks. Hopkins at Thiel and BC at Ferrum. Forgot I switched my 2 and 3 away from the NCAA’s regional ranks!
I favored Capital for the next C spot — they had a significantly higher QOW than anyone left on the board and are 2-1 against regionally ranked teams.
WILLAMETTE IN WITH THREE LOSSES? (PROBABLY FOUR WITH A LOSS TO LINFIELD THIS WEEK.) GIVE ME A BREAK. THERE ARE BETTER ONE LOSS TEAMS OUT THERE. CAL LUTHERAN IS ONE OF THEM.
The Linfield bracket is pretty stacked. It has 4 top ten teams even without UW-Whitewater. pcole, what are the chances that UW-Whitewater will be removed from the West bracket and why?
pitkaine,
You’ve missed one important piec of info with regards to Willamette.
2 of their losses are outside D-III (Western Oregon, Azusa Pacific) and
1 of their wins is also outside D-III (Southern Oregon).
The NCAA looks at Willamette right now as 4-1 overall, 4-0 in REGIONAL competition.
They are, in fact under the guidelines, a 1-loss team and an unbeaten In-Region team.
Pitkaine, please read the playoff FAQ that I linked in my post.
I personally think a Bridgewater v. Ferrum game would be a great first round game. The best two teams in Virginia going head to head. It will also let Ferrum know how they stack up against national powerhouses and given the team a sense of how much improvement is needed for next years team, which could probably be even better. However if this game takes place, it should be close and high scoring. Any Football Fan would love to see the offensive fireworks. Ferrum 48-BC 42.
It’s good to see that Concordia is now predicted to go to the playoffs. I think they have the best football program aside from St John’s in the MIAC, and they will only get better with Horan at the helm. I played (well I was on the team anyway) for them back in the late 90s and when we went to the playoffs it was based strictly on regional rankings. Thanks to this website for keeping me up to speed on the new method.
North Central gets completely jobbed in this scenario.
pcole,
What do you think will happen in the North if Augustana loses to Wheaton this Saturday?
Has been,
How do they get jobbed. They lost. If they wanted to guarantee home field they need to go undeafeted.
RE: North Central getting jobbed.
Eh, come on. Mount Union’s lost 2 home games more recently than any other North Region team seeded higher than North Central. Should be a great matchup 😉
I loved the (no mud anymore) comment, Linfield vs. Central. You know the Linfield fans want this matchup. Bring-um back to the Catdome, We will leave no Doubt this time!!
Forget home game. They get jobbed b/c they should play the appropriately seated team. Because this team is in their conference, they have to travel 10 hours and play the 473 time National Champs!?!?! Sorry bro, that’s a crappy scenario for a team that lost one road game, to a ranked team, with no time on the clock, after blocking the first kick. I hope for their sake it doesn’t play out this way.
Has been,
If they wanted to avoid that scenario they should have just won that game then.
The rules are very clear. They don’t, match up conference teams in the first round. Look at this way if they were in the West region they wouldn’t be near the top. They would be after all the undefeated and thus 6th or 7th. Possibly palying Linfield the defending champions.
Damn rules. Point taken.
WHAT A SHAME AND DISGRACE……..WHAT ABOUT THE HAMPDEN SYDNEY TIGERS.
NO DOUBT A TOP 25 FOOTBALL TEAM. THIS YEARS TEAM WOULD GO DEEP IN THE PLAYOFFS.
TEAMS LIKES FERRUM GOING ? WE WOULD BEAT THIS TEAM LIKE A DRUM. IT WOULD NOT EVEN BE A CLOSE GAME…………..AND THATS A FACT !! WE ARE 3 TO FOUR PLAYS AWAY FROM BEING UNDEFEATED.
WE JUST BEAT JOHN HOPKINS LAST WEEK 49-20 AND TRUST ME THE BEATING WAS WORSE THEN THE SCORE SHOWS………..WE SIMPLY RAN OVER THEM. WE WILL END UP 8-2 AND WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS…..THIS IS A SHAME AND DISGRACE FOR D-3 FOOTBALL.
TO PROVE MY POINT …….IF FURREM FACES BRIDGEWATER OR JOHN HOPKINS IN THE EARLY ROUND.
THIS WILL NOT EVEN BE A BALL GAME…………THEY WILL GET BEAT VERY BAD.
DO D-3 FOOTBALL A FAVOR AND GET HAMPDEN SYDNEY IN THE PLAYOFFS AND MY POINT WILL BE PROVED……….GO TIGERS !!
P.S. NO DISRESPECT FOR FERRUM FANS……..I AM JUST SIMPLY TELLING THE TRUTH 🙂
COME ON PLAYOFF PANEL……..YOU KNOW HAMPDEN SYDNEY BELONGS IN THE PLAYOFFS !!
GO TIGERS !!
Play a team in the USASouth and maybe you could truly boast such utter dominance over our schools. HSC may very well be better than Ferrum, but the truth is simple…we will never know and you have no idea about what you are talking. What makes you top 25, except for the fact that you have ODAC voters? Get over the loss to the mighty W&L and have a nice offseason in the post-Ricca era. Get up off your high horse and play someone. NO DISRESPECT TO HEMP-DEN SYDNEY FANS…I AM JUST SIMPLY TELLING THE TRUTH 🙂
hscfootball1959
Way to much about who you might beat if you only had the chance. There is a real simple solution to your problem.
Beat Bridgewater and win the conference. Others do it.
99-L, 00-L, 01-L, 02-L, 03-L, 04-L, 05-L.
You have to take care of your backyard before you can come out to play with the kids down the street.
I AM SIMPLY TELLING THE TRUTH.
HSCGUY, NO NEED TO SHOUT.
You very well could go deep into the playoffs as long you didn’t have to face Bridgewater or Washington & Lee.
Ncccards99= Mak?
loelmama: Playing conference opponents in the first round is not forbidden by the rules. It is also not required. It has not happened (or at least not as far back as I could remember) but it is not out of the question.
Hasbeen,
What is that supposed to mean?
Where does Wilkes University stand in all of this? A win against Kings College makes them 8-2, and a 7 game winning streak. Even though an early loss to William Paterson, which was the 1st game of the season, and William Paterson beat Rowan and has a shot for .500, Wilkes should get in. A Deleware Valley loss and a Wilkes win will give Wilkes win will also give Wilkes a share of the conference, but not the automatic bid.
Wilkes is probably in the middle of the pack among two-loss teams, none of which is getting in the playoffs in this last projection.
Nccards99,
If you don’t know, you’re not who I thought you were. I played with a certain number 99. Thought maybe you were him.
40
hscfootball,
No need to bash Hopkins or anyone else for that matter.
Yeah, Hopkins got pounded by HSC last week, but it was one game that HSC desperately needed, while Hopkins did not.
If you can’t beat Bridgewater and W&J, why be all high and mighty? Get over it already.
NOT BASHING ANYONE……JUST WRITING FACTS !!! HAMPDEN SYDNEY BELONGS IN THE PLAYOFFS AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT. ” I DON`T BLAME YOU FOR NOT WANTING THEM IN BECAUSE I UNDERSTAND YOU KNOW WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN…..YEAH, BUTT WHIPPING TIME !
THE WAY THE TIGERS ARE PLAYING NOW BRIDGEWATER WANTS NO PART OF THEM AND WE WILL NOT EVEN BRING W&L UP BECAUSE EVERYONE GETS LUCKY. ” EVEN A CROW FINDS A KERNAL OF CORN EVERY SO OFTEN.
AS FOR BRIDGEWATER THEY ARE GOOD AND BELONG AND DESERVE ALL THE CREDIT THEY GET.
AND WE DON`T RIDE HIGH ON OUR HORSES……WE RIDE HIGH ON OUR TIGERS ” KING OF THE JUNGLE.
AND YES TALK ALL YOU WANT, BUT THE FACT IS YOU ARE SCARED TO PLAY HAMPDEN SYDNEY BECAUSE IF THEY GET IN YOU KNOW THEY WILL BE KICKING SOME TOP RATED 20 TEAMS TAILS.
THE BEST TEAMS DESERVE TO GO…….JUST BECAUSE YOU WIN IN A WEAK CONFERENCE, THAT DON`T MAKE YOU A PLAYOFF TEAM !!!
SIMPLY WRITING THE FACTS !!
GO TIGERS # 1
How bout we see a rematch between the Washington & Jefferson Presidents and the Theil Tomcats. It would be a great game and W&J would definately come out on top. Then W&J would be a definate contender in the Trinity bracket….
hscfootball1959,
Are we supposed to take you seriously? You write like an opponent of HSC disguised as an HSC fan that’s making a fool of himself.
ernstjff,
I at least agree that that would be an exciting rematch.
W& J made the final eight last year and is better this year. If they can just squeeze in, they’ll go all the wya this year.
Re: H-S, no way a 2 loss team should be in the playoffs. Re: Wilkes, Del Val has clinched the MAC championship, remember Wilkes LOST to Del Val.
HSCfootball.
If you don’t like the rules of D3 football maybe you should go NAIA?
Why do you think HSC should go before someone like Ohio Northern or Capital?
hw, yes, but Wilkes can still get a share of the conference’s title with a win and a Del Val loss tomorrow. They just can’t get the automatic bid.
Mount Union may feel they are being jobbed too. They get to play North Central who, if not for a late penalty, is the number 1 top in the region.