Welcome back to the game we annually call our playoff projections. This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, most of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.
In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight South teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?
First, the basics:
Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Keep in mind, these are the NCAA’s criteria:
The following primary criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-wins index–only contests versus regional competition
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams (ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process).
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.
Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 9. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.
Delaware Valley Bracket
1. Delaware Valley (A)
2. Union (C)
3. Ithaca (A)
4. Rowan (A)
5. Hobart (C)
6. RPI (C)
7. St. John Fisher (C)
8. Curry/Fitchburg State (A)
This setup works so that there are not any conference rematches in first-round games. … We still have three Liberty League teams in because they all have decent numbers, but I think if RPI wins Saturday’s game against Union then Hobart will drop out. If RPI loses then RPI will drop out. Why? RPI already has a better regional winning percentage and Quality of Wins index, but Hobart has the head-to-head win. A win against Union will give them the automatic bid and a guaranteed slot. Union would have the win against Hobart on its résumé. … This committee is apparently giving a lot of weight to one game: Hobart over RPI. The win against a regionally ranked opponent gives Hobart a better regional ranking than St. John Fisher, even though SJF has a better regional winning percentage and better QOW. … If Rowan loses to Montclair this week, Cortland gets the automatic bid and Rowan is out.
Wabash Bracket
1. Wabash (A)
2. UW-Whitewater (A)
3. Mount Union (A)
4. Augustana (A)
5. North Central (C)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
7. Adrian/Albion (A)
8. Lakeland (A)
They will not rematch Augustana and North Central in the first round. Projected matchups: Lakeland at Wabash, MIAA winner at UW-Whitewater, North Central at Mount Union, Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana. … Stiff price for North Central lining up in the neutral zone on the blocked field goal at Augie. … UW-Whitewater was the No. 2 team in the West regional rankings. They wouldn’t be put up higher than No. 2 in the North.
Trinity (Texas) Bracket
1. Trinity (Texas) (A)
2. Thiel (B)
3. Ferrum (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (C)
5. Wesley (B)
6. Bridgewater (Va.) (A)
7. Hardin-Simmons (A)
8. Johns Hopkins (A)
Geography still dictates Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas). That puts Johns Hopkins at Ferrum. … Thiel still leads Ferrum in QOW and has the win against a regionally ranked opponent. Why is Ferrum ahead of Thiel in the regional rankings? … This has Wesley headed for its second-ever NCAA playoff game, both in the state of Texas.
Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Occidental (A)
4. Concordia-Moorhead (C)
5. Coe (A)
6. Monmouth (A)
7. Central (C)
8. Willamette (B)
Alright, Willamette, you have this spot for now. At 4-0 in-region with an 11.000 QOW you are in the last Pool B slot. At 4-1 in-region next week with a projected 10.000 QOW you won’t be, so the playoffs start a week early for you. (And if Pacific Lutheran beats Whitworth, the QOW for Willamette will fall even further.) … First-round matchups: Willamette at Occidental, Central at Linfield (no mud anymore), Monmouth at St. John’s (455 miles on NCAA map), Coe at Concordia-Moorhead (490 miles on NCAA map).
Who’s left? Our next Pool B team (i.e., the one waiting for Willamette to lose) is Washington and Jefferson. They were considered in Pool C but had a lower QOW than anyone selected in Pool C, save Hobart, which had the win against the regionally ranked team. Huntingdon next, as its QOW dove from 9.400 to 8.600 this week. The Maryville game, even if a win, will drive it even further down.
I have another separate playoffs post coming later, possibly tomorrow. I like that idea better.