Our projected Field of 32

It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 23 automatic bids, 11 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or fiscally, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket by itself. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 23 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining six bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we hope to answer. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

We projected the following results for Week 11: Wabash beating DePauw, Thomas More beating Mount St. Joseph, Johns Hopkins winning the Centennial. We didn’t project a winner in the NJAC, NEFC, Liberty League, USA South or NATHC because it didn’t appear it would matter to seedings. Nor did we project an Albright/Lebanon Valley winner. Their numbers are fairly similar no matter who wins.

Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold. On with the brackets:

Mount Union Bracket (seeded No. 1)
1. Mount Union
2. Delaware Valley
3. Alfred
4. NJAC winner
5. Lebanon Valley/Albright winner (Pool C)
6. NEFC winner
7. LL winner
8. Johns Hopkins
If Susquehanna beats Union, we’d probably flop them with Susquehanna. That would put JHU at Delaware Valley, but the NCAA committee only tries to avoid conference rematches in the first round. It doesn’t worry as much about non-conference rematches. If Averett wins the USA South, I would put it No. 8 in this bracket. The schools are within 500 miles of each other. The other USAC contender is North Carolina Wesleyan, which is more than 500 miles from Mount Union, outside the driving radius. Oh, and I guess I should just point out that Mount Union is in a bracket filled with primarily East teams.

UW-Whitewater Bracket (seeded No. 2)
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Wittenberg
3. Case Western Reserve (Pool B)
4. Illinois Wesleyan
5. Wabash (Pool C)
6. Trine
7. Ohio Northern (Pool C)
8. DePauw
DePauw with a loss would be looking at the No. 8 seed. With a win, they would grade out ahead of Trine, Wabash isn’t in this bracket, or even in the field. Dickinson would be next on the list if it wins and doesn’t get the Centennial Conference bid. Ohio Northern is in over Dickinson for now because it possesses something no other Pool C contender has: a win against a regionally ranked team. It also had the highest SOS of any Pool C contender. UW-Whitewater moved into this bracket

St. John’s Bracket (seeded No. 3)
1. St. John’s
2. Linfield
3. Central
4. Monmouth
5. St. Thomas (Pool C)
6. Coe (Pool C)
7. Cal Lutheran
8. NATHC champ
I was tempted to swap Monmouth and Illinois Wesleyan, but either way, one bracket would have had four unbeaten teams at the top. This would be a spot where we’d break apart the brackets, not because of geography but because the NCAA would not have Coe and Central meet in the first round. So, the Northern Athletics Conference champ at Central and Coe at St. John’s.

Wesley Bracket (seeded No. 4)
1. Wesley (Pool B)
2. Hampden-Sydney
3. Thomas More
4. Huntingdon (Pool B)
5. Mississippi College
6. Mary Hardin-Baylor (Pool C)
7. Mount St. Joseph
8. USAC winner
Mount St. Joseph fits better in this grouping than DePauw does, geographically. Mary Hardin-Baylor is flying to Thomas More, but heck, it has to fly somewhere.

St. Thomas, Coe, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Wabash, Lebanon Valley-Albright winner and Ohio Northern were the six Pool C teams I chose. Left on the board: the NJAC runner-up representing the East, North Central representing the North, Dickinson from the South and St. Norbert from the West.

53 thoughts on “Our projected Field of 32

  1. Man, Dickinson being left out is tough….Are they your 7th Pool C? I understand how the Pool C process works, it seems you picked ONU just over them. Very well explained, looks like Dickinson & North Central are the last 2 lookin’ in.

  2. In the SJU bracket… Maybe they’d send Coe to Monmouth and St. Thomas to Central. That would be a little closer to the seeding.

  3. Thank you for all the time, work, research, and thought that has gone into this. Two days ago, I tried doing a “quick” projection like Keith did earlier in the week. I hope to be done tomorrow night! Putting these brackets together is like trying to keep dominos upright on a pontoon boat in rough seas! Great job, guys!

  4. agreed, Ralph… It would be a great match up of two teams who pride themselves on running the ball and stopping the run.

  5. Great job here and with the podcast. It will be interesting to see how the NCAA Committee deals with the whole “mess.” Since I do not get ESPN News I guess I will just have to stay dialed into the D3 web site to find out how everything develops.

  6. I assume you also projected Hampden-Sydney to beat RMC. All of us UMHB fans REALLY want that to happen so HSC stays in Pool A. Also, it would really be nice if Johns Hopkins loses and Dickinson moves up to Pool A and out of Pool C.

    Pat, if I am correct, of the four left on the board, only Dickinson and St. Norbert have only 1 loss. If that is not correct, correct me!

    Also, in the My Union bracket I think you meant flip Johns Hopkins and Susquehanna if Union loses.

  7. Fantastic job of laying out the virtually impossible task of “projecting” what the NCAA COMMITTEE might do on Sunday.

    1st question: Is Coe close enough, geographically . . . fiscally . . . to be moved along with UWW, in the case of a loss by Wabash?

    2nd question: Do you think that the NCAA COMMITTEE might rank Wesley bracket #3 instead of #4, allowing for a potential UWW vs. the winner of Linfield / St. Johns Final in Salem? (Of course they would have to go through Alliance first?)

    Thanks for the effort and the time it took to prepare! We’ll see on Sunday?

  8. Coe is more than 500 miles from either Case or Wittenberg, so it would be a tough call in terms of mileage. If Wabash loses, I think Dickinson is the next choice for an at-large spot. That would kick Mount St. Joseph or Mary Hardin-Baylor into the Whitewater bracket and Coe would stay where it is.

  9. As for the ranking of the brackets themselves, I would think they’re fairly fluid and could go in a bunch of directions. Wesley’s bracket could well be No. 3, with a win against the East’s No. 2 that might push them up the list.

  10. How much consideration is there to how well teams are playing now and injuries?
    I.E. SJU is all banged up. UST is playing the best ball in the MIAC right now. Might be under-rated .If those two go head to head again, even in Collegeville, does SJU still have the horses to hold off a visitor.

  11. It would also be interesting if the committee ranked Thomas More and MSJ as 3 and 6 giving the winner of the game a three seed and a home game next week against the same opponent. Can you imagine the buzz that would be created!

  12. I agree that realistically the bubble pool C teams (Dickinson, St Norbert, W&J, NorthCentral, and OhioNorthern) would like for Depauw to beat Wabash and Hampton Sydney to beat Randolph Macon. I do not feel that Ohio Northern is a look for the last seed.

  13. If HS and Thomas Moore for some reason should lose this weekend, do you think that would bump UMHB up in the regional rankings and have them seeded higher than a 6th seed?

  14. Also, it always seems that MUC gets put into the weakest bracket———do you think there are any teams in that bracket capable of knocking them off?

  15. If Wabash loses this weekend I don’t see how Dickinson can get the nod over North Central. Yes, Dickinson has only one lose compared to two by North Central but Dickinsons strength of schedule is 114 while North Central is 30. Dickinson has also had some close calls in conference so how could they be the probably nod over North Central?

  16. I don’t see how Union or Susquehanna would be ranked above Hopkins, Union lost to Muhlenberg, which had a mediocre year at best.

  17. I don’t think we really say Susquehanna would be seeded above Hopkins.

    As for Union being seeded above Hopkins, they could be based on the same thing that has Dickinson seeded above Hopkins: better regional record.

  18. mille125,

    NCAA doesn’t do rematches in the 1st round… so MSJ/TMC would not happen in 1st round. Especially the week following the 1st meeting.

    Who is Thomas Moore?

  19. This bracket does look good, Pat… I’m watching the game scores this weekend with some anticipation of there being some chaos from some of the rivalry games giving us unexpected results.

  20. SaintsFan: It’s only conference rematches that they try to specifically avoid. But I would hope they would also at least attempt to avoid teams meeting in Week 11 and Week 12 when geography is not an issue.

    Cru, probably higher than a six seed but not sure it would really have a big impact on who they play. Someone *might* fly to UMHB in that case but I think more likely UMHB still travels.

  21. SaintsFan:

    Who is Thomas Moore? I dont know why dont you tell me.

    You are wrong about first round playoff seeding. TMJ and MSJ are not in the same conference last time I checked.

  22. Saintsfan,

    Next time you call someone out, please have the correct information. CaptainCru spelled you beloved team that way, not me.

  23. correct me if I’m wrong, but basically a team can mathematically help themselves by playing their out of conference games out of their region since a loss won’t count against them in the playoff seadings

  24. Why MUC gets the “weakest” region? Well, a) they are #1 overall and b) Alliance, OH is as close (if not closer) to the east as they are to the “north”.

  25. If UST is looking forward to a rematch with SJU, they will be in big trouble against either Central or Monmouth.

  26. St Thomas could help themselves by scheduling some real non conference teams. Macalaster? Northwestern? Sheesh.

  27. Everyone is saying that the NCAA will not put two teams in the same conference in the first round but havent we seen UMHB/HardinSimmons in the first round in both 2006 and 2008?

  28. Pat, what are the chances of Redlands getting a Pool C bid if they beat Cal Lu saturday to go 8-1 and force a three-way tie for the SCIAC assuming Oxy beats Whittier. I mean Redlands only loss is in OT to Oxy, who has only lost to Linfield in week 2 by 4 and then Cal Lu by 10. Where Cal Lu would have only lost in their first game to Willamette by 7, who has only lsot to Willamette and Concordia-Moorehead; and then assuming Cal Lu’s 2nd loss would be to Redlands. As far as in region has gone I think that Redlands and the majority of the SCIAC have proven they are tougher than preceived.

    So, if Redlands beats Cal Lu by 14 or more points Saturday and Oxy wins handedly against Whittier would there be any justification for Redlands not to get a playoff spot?

  29. W&J is in serious trouble concerning a pool C bid even though they are ranked 13 in the NCAA poll. Pat, do you recall another team in the recent past who was ranked this high and missed the postseason?

  30. If you simply go by the rankings pool c would be UMHB, StThomas, W&J, Wabash, Northcentral, and Williamette. Coe, OhioNorthern, Dickinson, and LehighV/Albright would be left out. Why is there such a discrepancy?

  31. I don’t understand how you can’t rank Monmouth higher. Sure they play in a terrible conference but they have destroyed everyone in every single game. I think that has to be taken into consideration and give them some weight in their seeding. Bump them up over Central at least, maybe Linfield if you are feeling generous.

    Again, I guess it is considered a bad loss if you play in the WIAC and lose to Whitewater. There are no Division II schools in Wisconsin, so essentially any recruits that don’t go to the Badgers are going to these D-III schools. If anyone watches some game tape it is a little more physical style of play (Big Ten style) and the entire conference could sneak up on Coe, St. Thomas, Wabash, and Ohio Northern. Not to take anything away from those teams because they are all solid but the last place team in the WIAC could give them a run for their money. Not saying they would close out the game and win, because they found their way to the cellar of the WIAC for a reason.

  32. Did I misread the notes on the projected brackets ~ are you saying you DON’T think there’s a place in the field for Wabash even if they defeat DePauw today…?

  33. They’re only loss was by 3 points to an undefeated Wittenberg when Wabash’s starting quarterback was sidelined…?

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