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Storylines to watch heading into the Sweet 16

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The second weekend of the 2024 NCAA Tournament has arrived! Tip-off is just hours away for these Sweet 16 games set to be played tonight in Brunswick (Maine), Providence (Rhode Island), New York City (New York), and Whitewater (Wisconsin). We’ve got 16 teams contending for one of four spots in Columbus next week, and the stakes are incredibly high, with no clear far-and-away favorites in these eight matchups. It is crazy to think the season has gone this fast, but nonetheless, here we are. I love the fact that we have so many teams from different parts of the country facing off tonight, and there is plenty to follow in each of these sectional pods. I figured I’d put together three storylines to keep an eye on in each sectional tonight, as we get closer to the first games of the day.

NYU Sectional

  • The Matchups

  • Scranton vs Johns Hopkins, 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Hardin-Simmons vs NYU, 7:00 p.m. ET

3 Key Storylines

First-year success at JHU: JHU is the only program in the Sweet 16 who is led by a first-year head coach at Rodney Rogan continues to impress in his first year at the helm of the Blue Jays. A top contender in the Centennial Conference all season long, JHU is 26-3, with its first season of 25 wins or more since 1996-97. This is a special team, and will give Scranton a real test in a battle of Region 5 powers.

For the first time in a long time: Hardin-Simmons is a relatively new face in the third round, as the Cowgirls are set to make their first appearance in the Sweet 16 since 2006. This year marks just the second season since 2006 in which HSU has qualified for the NCAA Tournament, as the Cowgirls are led by a quartet of fifth-year seniors in Anna Fanelli, Paris Kiser, Parris Parmer, and Samantha Tatum.

NYU’s one-two punch in the post: The Violets are 27-0 for a reason and their post play has certainly been a significant contributor to that. The guard play, led by Belle Pellecchia and Megan Bauman, has been fantastic and has certainly contributed to the production in the paint that makes NYU such a tough opponent. The one-two punch of Natalie Bruns and Morgan Morrison continues to be impressive as the forwards are amongst the top three on the team in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, and blocks. Bruns is averaging 14.9 points and 7.3 boards, and 3.04 blocks, while Morrison averages 14.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and is shooting 60.2 percent on the year. Bruns and Morrison complement each other when both are on the floor at the same time, and that is one of the reasons NYU has been so consistent offensively.

UW-Whitewater Sectional

The Matchups

  • UW-Stout vs Transylvania, 6:00 p.m. ET
  • Hope vs UW-Whitewater, 8:30 p.m. ET

3 Key Storylines

A national title game reunion: This sectional is unique in that three of the four teams who played in the national title games in 2022 and 2023 will be in action. Hope and UW-Whitewater find themselves in a rematch of the 2022 championship in Pittsburgh; a game Hope won, 71-58. And Transylvania enters as the defending national champion with a 29-0 record. The Pioneers took down Christopher Newport in Dallas last spring for the 2023 national title.

Stout on a surge: UW-Stout has authored one of the best in-season turnarounds in Division III women’s hoops in recent memory. The Blue Devils started WIAC play with a 1-5 record, before flipping the script and closing the league schedule with a 7-1 record. That carried into the WIAC Tournament, as Stout took down Whitewater and Oshkosh, both Sweet 16 teams, in consecutive order on the road, claiming the league’s AQ to the NCAA Tournament. And at Carroll last weekend, Stout got past WashU, 71-61, in a tight game, before rolling past Puget Sound in the second round, 61-40.

Transy in midst of making history: Transylvania carries a 62-game winning streak into the sectional, the eighth-longest in college hoops history and the third-longest in D-III women’s basketball history. While all four teams here have postseason experience, and more so Hope and Whitewater from a recent standpoint, Transy enters with the longest active streak of consecutive Sectional appearances, with three. UW-Whitewater is making its second-straight, and while Hope is in its 14th Sweet 16, the Flying Dutch fell to Wartburg in the second round of last year’s tournament. This marks the first time within this three-year span that Transy will be playing in the second weekend away from their home court in Lexington, Kentucky.

Bowdoin Sectional

The Matchups

  • UW-Oshkosh vs Smith, 5:00 p.m. ET
  • Baldwin Wallace vs Bowdoin, 7:30 p.m. ET

3 Key Storylines

First-time meetings: Neither Oshkosh and Smith nor Baldwin Wallace and Bowdoin have ever met previously, based on each team’s “opponent history” as listed on their websites. These unique matchups are partially made possible by the sectional including four different regions, with Regions 1 (Bowdoin), 2 (Smith), 7 (Baldwin Wallace), and 9 (UW-Oshkosh) represented. It is one of two sectionals with that distinction.

Home Sweet Home: The Polar Bears are set to make their 16th Sweet 16 appearance in program history, the most of any NESCAC program, on Friday, and will do it inside historic Morrell Gymnasium. Bowdoin has historically been very successful in postseason home games, having beaten Bates in the NESCAC title game two weeks ago to go along with a 27-2 record at home in NCAA Tournament duels.

The sharpshooting Pioneers: Smith continues to be one of the country’s most efficient offenses, which is certain to create an intriguing duel between the superb defense of Oshkosh and the shooting ability of Smith. The Pioneers rank No. 1 in the D3 in in field goal percentage as well as 3-point percentage and have three 1,000-point scorers leading the way; Ally Yamada, Sofia Rosa, and NEWMAC Player of the Year Jessie Ruffner.

Rhode Island College Sectional

The Matchups

  • Bates vs Wartburg, 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Washington & Lee vs Rhode Island College, 8:00 p.m. ET

3 Key Storylines

Battling beyond the arc: The Bates/Wartburg matchup features a strength for both teams that will go head-to-head in this neutral court duel. Bates has been one of the NESCAC’s top teams in 3-point defense this season, with opponents shooting just 25.3 percent against the Bobcats. Wartburg, on the other hand, is ranked in the Top 10 nationally in 3-pointers per game, with 8.7. Britney Young, Jaedon Murphy, and Sara Faber have all made at least 50 3-pointers this season for the Knights.

The pressure of playing with a lead doesn’t seem to faze W&L: Mary Schleusner has been the headliner throughout W&L’s tournament run, and really, for the majority of this season. And rightfully so. She continues to put up incredible double-doubles, like the 45-point, 29-rebound performance against Vassar in the first round on Friday. Slowing her down will undoubtedly be a major task for the RIC defense. But in the midst of all of that, something even I wasn’t aware of was the fact that the Generals have not trailed at any point over their last 75:36 of game action. That is huge considering their challenging first weekend draws of Vassar and Catholic. Being able to play well with a lead, especially in the second half, could come into play for W&L tonight against an RIC team that tends to be fairly productive over the final two quarters of games.

Back-to-back Final Fours for RIC?: Last season, the Anchorwomen seemingly came out of nowhere in making a run to the Final Four, surprising many along the way. This season, it’s been a different story, and RIC has lived up the hype. They are 29-0 this year, having broken the program record for consecutive wins, and that goes along with a 26-game home winning streak, evidence of just how tough it is to take down the Anchorwomen on their home court in recent seasons. RIC is in the midst of its third-straight 20-win season, but has never before won 30 games in a season, a feat that could be accomplished on Friday night. Of course, there is also a question as to whether RIC reaches an unprecedented second-straight Final Four. We could see that accomplished on Saturday night.

That’ll wrap up this gameday post! I’m headed to the UW-Whitewater sectional tonight and look forward to catching up with a few teams I’ve already seen this season, as well as UW-Whitewater, who I have watched plenty of, but haven’t yet seen play in-person. The stakes will be high in what is the only sectional being played in the Midwest. I’ll have a couple postgame columns from there along with notes on the rest of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games over the course of this weekend. So stay tuned! And best of luck to all of the teams tipping off tonight!

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Pool C WBB: Who’s in and Who’s Out?

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By Riley Zayas, The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops

Good morning! Welcome to Selection Monday eve! We’ve got all but eight automatic qualifiers to the 2024 NCAA Tournament decided, and those championship games will be contested this afternoon. What a great weekend this is for D3 basketball! As I’ve continued working on my book on D3 hoops, I’ve had the chance to talk to several coaches and student-athletes within the past week, as they’ve navigated through their respective conference tournaments. Now comes to the NCAA Tournament, and 64 teams battling for the national title. As D3hoops.com’s Pat Coleman wrote on X/Twitter yesterday: “This is one of the best days on the #d3hoops calendar, hands down.” He’s spot on.

This evening, I’ll be part of a panel on Hoopsville, the national Division III basketball talk show, attempting to correctly predict all 21 Pool C selections for this year’s tournament. This is my second year on the panel, and I’m looking forward to it! Based on what I’ve been told, our WBB panel will be on during the second half of the show, which begins at 5:00 p.m. ET this evening. You can watch on D3hoops.com or on YouTube/Facebook, but make sure you tune in! Of course, the bracket is released by the national committee tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. ET on NCAA.com. So a big next 36 hours in the world of D3 hoops!

Congratulations to all of the teams who have made the tournament already, and to the others who will soon punch their tickets. I’ll have a short write-up on our Pool A qualifiers coming out later this afternoon.

But now for a focus on Pool C…who’s in? Who’s out? How does the bubble look right now heading into today’s games? And most importantly, if your team is on the bubble, who should you be rooting for in today’s games? I may not know the answers to all of those questions, but will give my best assessments below. Even one result from today could shake up the entire Pool C situation, but as it stands right now, here’s a look.

Some notes before I get into this:
When I list two numbers as a “resume”, that is the Win Percentage/Strength of Schedule being listed. Win percentage is always listed first.

“ v/RROs” means results vs regionally-ranked opponents. This is a key piece of primary criteria in the selection process.

The data referenced below comes from Scott Peterson’s “NCAA resumes” section on his fantastic D3 WBB data website: d3data.weebly.com.

Teams on this list have finished their conference tournaments entirely. That is why you won’t see teams like Gettysburg, Shenandoah, Washington & Lee, Smith, and Babson referenced here.

I split the teams in this Pool C discussion into five buckets: Locks (teams that are safe but will take a Pool C bid), Teams on the bubble that are likely to be in, teams with 50/50 odds to make it via a Pool C bid, and teams on the bubble who are on the outside looking in.

These teams are in no particular order, but are generally how I think the process may play out.

Locks…
UW-Whitewater: With an 846/645 resume, along with seven regionally-ranked wins, the Warhawks are not only a lock to make the tournament despite having lost in the WIAC tournament semifinals, but are in line to host an opening weekend pod as well.

Catholic: The Cardinals lost to Scranton in yesterday’s Landmark championship game, but will be one of the first three teams off the board with a solid 926/540 resume. It’s not all that often we get teams with a 25-2 record whose SOS is also above 540, but that’s what we have here. Balanced resume that the committee will certainly reward. Like Whitewater, Catholic should host in the opening weekend.

UW-Oshkosh: The Titans fell in Friday’s WIAC title game, but put together an incredibly strong season in the WIAC, and won the league’ regular season title. An incredibly strong SOS of 593 coupled with the 815 win percentage will come off the Pool C board early. I expect Oshkosh to be playing at home on Friday, hosting a pod.

Illinois Wesleyan: Playing in the ultra-tough CCIW, IWU is another team that will come off the board quick. The Titans dropped Saturday’s CCIW championship game to Carroll, but like Oshkosh, have an .815 win percentage along with a solid .573 SOS. The question now is, will IWU host in the first two rounds?

Hope: The Flying Dutch may end up hosting as well, and like many of these teams I’ve listed, put together an outstanding regular season, but were defeated in their conference tournaments. Hope picking up a Pool C is the result of a bid thief, as Trine, whose Pool C chances were nonexistent entering last night’s MIAA title game, took down the Flying Dutch, 73-69. It forces Hope to contend for a Pool C bid, which has a ripple effect down to the teams sitting on the bubble.

Springfield: Out of the NEWMAC, Springfield’s 815/561 balanced resume stacks up well, along with its 4-3 record v/RROs. Springfield is another team that should come off the board within the first 10 rounds, and should be on the board in Round 1 as Rhode Island College and Smith, who are both ahead of them, won the Pool A bids out of each of their respective conferences.

Trinity (CT): The Bantams are in, despite a somewhat shaky start to the season. The .731 win percentage sticks out a little bit more, but Trinity’s .637 SOS should be rewarded well by this committee, who has emphasized SOS and the impact playing a strong schedule has on your tournament chances in Pool C. I don’t think Trinity sits on the board long, though it may be a few more rounds than you’d think with that kind of SOS, simply because the win percentage is much lower.

Emory: Out of the UAA, the Eagles should be feel safe about their chances despite taking a tough loss at home to Rochester in the regular season finale. That one loss doesn’t change a whole lot for Emory’s Pool C outlook, and the 760/595 resume stacks up well. Especially out of Region 6. That’s the key here; who’s ahead of you in this week’s regional rankings (which we obviously aren’t able to see yet, but try our best to project). In this case, Emory should be first to the table out of Region 6, so the Eagles may sit on the table for 9-10 rounds, but should be picked towards the middle rounds of the Pool C process.

Millikin: The third team out of the CCIW, Millikin’s 815/557 resume is balanced and strong, and the 3-4 record v/RROs indicates that. Milllikin’s resume may sit on the table for a little while too, but the Big Blue are a lock to get in, even as the No. 4 team in Region 8. Once IWU comes off the board, Millikin will get to the table, and should be a team selected towards those middle rounds.

WashU: This is an interesting one, considering WashU’s .680 win percentage. The Bears aren’t even in the conversation with a win percentage this low, without a .621 SOS, which looks very impressive, as does the 5-7 record v/RROs. A benefit of playing in the UAA, certainly, but WashU also scheduled really well in non-conference. I don’t think WashU is on the bubble, especially having beaten Chicago on Saturday in what certainly appears to have been a Pool C elimination game.

Messiah: Another situation with a bid thief involved. Widener went to Messiah in the MACC championship game and took down the Falcons in an upset, causing a least one team’s bubble to pop. Messiah now is in the Pool C mix, rather than taking the AQ out of the MACC. With an 815/553 resume, there’s no need for Messiah fans to worry about missing the tournament. They’re going to be in.

Mary Hardin-Baylor: Again, these are not in a hard-and-fast order, but more of a general ordering of teams in the various buckets. UMHB lost in yesterday’s ASC title game to Hardin-Simmons, and even if The Cru drop to No. 3 in Region 10 (as opposed to No. 2), it would be behind Trinity (TX), who in that case, would have to have won today’s SCAC title game. Meaning that UMHB is going to be first to the table out of Region 10. As a result, the Crusaders’ 778/548 resume should be considered strongly between around Round 12 or so of the selection process. The SOS, along with an incredibly significant head-to-head win, is keeping UMHB above Willamette in the regional rankings, which is key for UMHB feeling fairly safe at this point.

UMass-Dartmouth: Alright, last team in this bucket. UMD finished as the LEC runner-up to Rhode Island College, and UMD’s 852/547 win percentage is going to be enough to get the Corsairs selected at the table without a ton of debate. The 1-3 v/RROs isn’t great, but they’re in a good spot, likely to be picking within the first 15-16 rounds.

On the bubble (but likely in)
Arcadia: Without the bid thieves we had yesterday, Arcadia may have been a safer Pool C lock. That said, odds are good that they will make the tournament field, with an 815/533 resume, but there’s a good chance they sit on the table for 17 or 18 rounds before being picked. Having a win percentage above .800 will help, though.

Willamette: Like Arcadia, I think Willamette is “bubble-in” as it stands right now. Why? In an interesting situation, Willamette losing to Puget Sound on Friday, and Puget then winning the NWC title means Puget will be regionally ranked. And Willamette already has two wins over Puget Sound this season, which gives the Bearcats two additional RRO wins, which keeps them relevant within Pool C. The .739 win percentage means Willamette will be sitting there until the late rounds, most likely, but an impressive 5-2 record v/RROs stands out. The SOS overall is .528, which is certainly Pool C viable.

Concordia-Moorhead: Out of Region 9, Concordia is a quality program in the MIAC, and the MIAC tournament runner-up. The 800/543 resume is solid, and this resume is very similar to what Arcadia has (with the 1-3 v/RROs), which is why these are “bubble-in” teams. But I think it is going to be close.

Baldwin Wallace: Compared to some of the other teams I have towards the later rounds, I think BW’s 769/566 resume stacks up fairly well, especially because the Yellowjackets are likely to be ahead of Marietta in Region 7, which could make a significant difference, considering BW will get to the Pool C table first in that scenario.

On the bubble (50/50 odds)
Marietta: The Pioneers will need BW to be picked before they can get to the table, so it’s a tough process when you’re in this spot. Marietta’s resume, at 778/552, is Pool C viable, but the question is, will they get to the table soon enough? I think so, and I’m leaning “bubble-in” on the Pioneers.

Loras: Another situation where a team will get to the table very late in the process. Loras has a decent 852/532 resume, but holds only one regionally-ranked win (over Elizabethtown in Puerto Rico). With Concordia (MN) likely to be ahead of Loras in the process, Loras may only be on the board for the final 2 or 3 rounds.

MIT: Out of the NEWMAC, MIT will be in contention for one of those final spots…I’m not sure if their .587 SOS makes up for the .704 win percentage, though. That’s the concern here for MIT. Along with a 2-7 record v/RROs. How much value are we going to place on going .222 against regionally-ranked opponents? Scheduling good teams and taking losses in the majority of those games isn’t something that should offset such a low win percentage, in my opinion. But we will see.

Whitman: Whitman may not get to the table until the final 4 or 5 rounds, which will make it difficult. The 750/527 resume is solid and 3-3 v/RROs is worth noting. But does it get Whitman in? I can see a situation where it does, but the question becomes if the .527 SOS is too low. With a sub-.800 win percentage, it seems that having an SOS above .545 is necessary, but that isn’t always the case.

On the outside looking in…
Elizabethtown: With the bid thieves involved, Elizabethtown is in a tough spot. Region 5 is stacked, but Elizabethtown will be on the table for at least 8 or 9 rounds. That said, the .704 win percentage is interesting. Much like MIT, how will the committee grade a team with a low win percentage and an SOS below .600? ETown is at 704/555 right now, and 1-6 v/RROs, with a win over Scranton, which could end up being a win over a region No. 1 depending on how much emphasis the committee places on yesterday’s win for Scranton over Catholic in the Landmark title game. That will help ETown’s case, but will it be enough? We’ll have to find out. As it stands right now, the Blue Jays are on the bubble, but on the outside of the Top 21 Pool C resumes.

Ohio Wesleyan: The Battling Bishops lost, 56-53, to DePauw in yesterday’s NCAC final, and while OWU will move up to No. 5 in Region 7, most likely, I think OWU may have a difficult time even reaching the Pool C table. Marietta is likely to block OWU from getting there until at least Round 20. Which will make it tough for OWU, whose resume currently sits at 778/521.

Ithaca: The No. 3 team out of the Liberty League, Ithaca’s chances are very slim. The 778/525 resume includes a 3-6 record v/RROs, and to make matters worse, if Vassar beats Skidmore today, Skidmore is likely to block Ithaca from ever even reaching the Pool C table, much less being selected.

Middlebury: This is tough for Middlebury, who challenged Bowdoin for four quarters in yesterday’s NESCAC semifinal, yet came up short. Middlebury will likely be left out, even with a .607 SOS considering the .654 win percentage. They’ll get to the table, but being selected is a different story. The general thought is that you need a win percentage above .667, and while that is not a hard line in the sand from what I have heard, .654 seems way too low.

How do today’s games affect Pool C?
Vassar/Skidmore (Liberty League title game): Vassar is the projected Pool A according to Scott Peterson’s model, while Skidmore sits firmly on the bubble. If Vassar wins, Skidmore will be in contention for one of the final Pool C spots and its 834/510 resume will be put to the test. Vassar losing creates an interesting scenario in which someone’s Pool C bubble pops, as I don’t see Vassar missing the tournament, despite its .476 SOS. But how soon would Vassar be picked? That’s the big question.

Babson/Smith (NEWMAC title game): Potential bid thief situation here. Everyone on the bubble, and I mean everyone, needs to be rooting for Smith today. Because Smith is in the tournament as the projected NEWMAC champ, so a Babson upset would mean both Babson and Smith get in, which takes another Pool C spot. So if you’re a bubble team, make sure you’re keeping up with that game in the northeast. It might be the most impactful game of the day for Pool C.

Shenandoah/Washington & Lee (ODAC title game): Shenandoah is on the outside looking in, so this is another bid thief situation. W&L is the favorite in this one, so the Generals winning would simply give W&L the AQ. If Shenandoah wins, now we get into a situation where W&L takes a Pool C spot. Even with a slightly lower win percentage, W&L is getting into the tournament field…I feel pretty confident on that. So bubble teams, being paying attention to this one as well.

Colorado College/Trinity TX (SCAC title game): There aren’t a ton of implications, even within Region 10, on this one. If Trinity loses, the Tigers remain behind UMHB and Willamette, and likely will not get to the table until the later rounds. In fact, this is a must-win game for Trinity to get into the NCAA Tournament itself from what I’m seeing, so that will certainly heighten the intensity. But point being, a Trinity loss or a Trinity win doesn’t affect a whole lot. It would, however, mean an additional flight for the committee to figure out, as Colorado College is unable to bus to any of the potential hosting sites.

Centre/Millsaps (SAA title game): Neither of these teams are in contention for Pool C. It is win or go home in Jackson, Mississippi! Bracketology note though: Centre can easily get to Transylvania and is also within 500 miles of Hope. Millsaps? Nowhere within 500 miles. Not Transylvania or Hardin-Simmons. So likely a flight there if Millsaps wins the SAA.

Gettysburg/Johns Hopkins (Centennial title game): Both teams are in the tournament, either as Pool A or Pool C. So not a ton of implications here, either. Winner likely hosts a first weekend pod.

St. Norbert/Wisconsin Lutheran (NACC title game): Neither team is Pool C viable, so this is another must-win game for both teams.

Bowdoin/Bates (NESCAC title game): Both teams are in, either by Pool A or Pool C. I think there’s a likely chance that both teams end up hosting as well.

Let me know any questions/comments you have! Happy to answer anything as it relates to this Pool C process as best as I can. Leave a comment below or email me at rileyzayas@gmail.com. DMs are also open on Twitter (@ZayasRiley).

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The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops: Geneva stuns W&J, ONU takes down top seed Baldwin Wallace in OAC semis

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Welcome back to another day in one of the best weeks of the year, as conference tournament time unfolds and we approach championship weekend. We’ve got several league title games in play tonight, and honestly, we had so much that happened yesterday that most of this newsletter will be looking back on last night. After all, two No. 1 seeds fell in a matter of minutes, and we had great games from coast-to-coast (literally).

UPSET COMPLETE: Geneva ends W&J’s season in PAC semifinals

Three days ago, Geneva entered the week with a sub-.500 overall record, sitting at 12-13, lucky to have grabbed to the fifth seed in the PAC Tournament. But what do records matter when it comes to postseason basketball?

The Golden Tornadoes cleared their first hurdle at Allegheny on Tuesday, winning 84-73, clinching the program’s first PAC semifinal appearance in the process. And last night, they made history once again, finding their way into Saturday’s championship game with a chance to reach the NCAA Tournament. Who would’ve thought…

The 89-75 win for Geneva over heavily-favored Washington & Jefferson came as a shocker, especially considering W&J’s 23-2 record and No. 6 ranking within Region 7. After taking a surprising loss to Chatham in last year’s PAC semifinals, it seemed W&J may have used that loss as motivation in this scenario, jumping out to a 26-15 lead through one quarter.

Things changed in the second half however, after Geneva had gotten the halftime deficit to just nine. A 26-17 third quarter was followed by a massive 31-17 fourth for Geneva, who saw its seven-point lead dwindle to zero with 4:32 left. In fact, at that point, Geneva trailed, 68-67. But a 16-0 run followed for the Golden Tornadoes and there was no bigger stretch at any point in the contest. Mackenzie Barricklow’s 3-pointer for an 81-68 lead was the nail in the coffin to W&J’s hopes at a comeback, as Geneva earned the biggest upset of the night…by far.

W&J scheduled really well in non-conference, but unfortunately, the Presidents are going to have a difficult time getting into the Pool C discussion. The SOS is just too low, and much of that is the PAC weighing those numbers down. The win percentage is impressive, but with the emphasis on SOS in this conversations, W&J is very far down on the Pool C board. Scott Peterson’s updated NCAA resumes model has W&J at #51 on the Pool C board. And for reference, only 21 Pool C bids are up for grabs.

Ohio Northern stuns top seed Baldwin Wallace in OAC Tourney

That said, Ohio Northern might have something to say. The Polar Bears also took down a top seed, though as I noted in yesterday morning’s newsletter, this was one we could see as being a possibility. Fourth-seeded ONU took down No. 1 seed Baldwin Wallace in the OAC semifinals on the road, 57-43. For as tough of a year as its been for ONU, I think it was always understood that the Polar Bears had the talent capable of winning a game like this one. It was 33-13 at halftime, and ONU absolutely controlled the game from start to finish in one of the more dominant semifinal showings I saw last night. Brynn Serbin had 22 points and with Kristen Luersman having been back on the floor as of late, ONU has looked more in rhythm offensively.

This also creates an interesting situation with Baldwin Wallace and the Yellowjackets status as the current No. 3 team in Region 7. While they might not be a Pool C “lock”, I think chances are good that Baldwin Wallace gets to the selection table within the first 10 rounds at least. As the projected Pool A out of the OAC, we also have our first potential bid thief situation, as Baldwin Wallace is likely to “steal” an at-large bid now. We knew coming into the week that BW’s chances to get in via Pool C were decent but not secure, and we’ll see how that aspect of things plays out, especially since Marietta, who beat Capital handily the other OAC semifinal, will almost certainly jump ahead of Baldwin Wallace now. In the case that ONU wins on Saturday, Marietta will likely get to the Pool C table before Baldwin Wallace, creating a situation where BW is “blocked” from being considered until Marietta is selected, which could be in the later rounds. It is definitely something that Scott Peterson and I have both been tracking, and will continue to keep an eye on as it relates to the Pool C projections and how other teams are fitting into that mix.

Closest game of the day? Loras vs. Coe

The finish to the ARC semifinal between Loras and Coe might have been the closest of any of the day’s games, with the difference being a free throw made with four-tenths of a second left on the clock. Loras’ 61-60 victory sent the Duhawks to the ARC championship as Daniella Jarrell converted on a critical free throw, undoubtedly the biggest free throw of her career, to break a 60-60 tie. With nine seconds left, Coe’s Ellie Wisner hit a 3-pointer that knotted the score, and Loras inbounded the ball with just over eight seconds left out of a timeout, looking for the game-winner. Silvana Scarsella had a decent look with only a few seconds left from the right corner, but missed short, and Jarrell was in the right spot for the offensive rebound. As she went up for the putback, it appeared contact was made, resulting in the trip to the line with 0.4 left. Needless to say, the call was met with some frustration from the Coe bench, and to a degree, the contact seemed minimal, especially for that kind of a moment in a tournament semifinal. But take a look at it yourself (VIDEO LINK)…I’d love to hear thoughts on whether that contact warranted a whistle, especially with under a second left. As an overall game, it was so competitive, and credit to Loras for fighting back. Coe led big, 40-29 at the half, but Loras outscored Coe 30-22 over the final 20 minutes. And I’m certainly not criticizing the officiating here at all, but the free throw disparity is worth a mention. Coe was 3-of-3 at the FT line. Loras? 15-of-18.

Carroll starts fast, takes down Millikin in CCIW semifinals

I’m not sure anyone had a better start in a more pivotal game than Carroll last night, who defeated Millikin for a THIRD time this season. This time, it was in the CCIW semifinals on a neutral court at Illinois Wesleyan, and Carroll got out to a significant lead in a hurry. It was 27-17 after the opening quarter, and 45-26 at halftime, as the Pioneers shot a ridiculous 19-of-29 in the first two quarters. Millikin answered with a 22-12 third quarter, and impressively, got the deficit to three with 4:46 to go. But Carroll refused to let it slip away and sealed its trip to the CCIW championship game with a 9-3 spurt for a 71-62 lead. Carroll walked away with a 75-66 victory and one of the day’s more impressive performances. Olivia Rangel was terrific for Carroll, as she has been all year, and tallied 24 points in the win.

As for NCAA Tournament implications, both teams are safe. Millikin is in a good position right now, and should be one of the first several teams taken in Pool C. Carroll now plays for the CCIW’s AQ, but the Pioneers also have a strong Pool C chance.

Other Notes

Occidental and La Verne battled in a game that saw the final minute play out in about 17 minutes total…it was a true chess match, and La Verne cut an 12-point deficit to 3 in the span of 36 seconds. Marissa Howell had two big 3-pointers (off-balance, too) for La Verne, but Occidental was 10-of-13 at the free throw line in the final minute. That kept Oxy in front en route to the 76-70 win, and sends the Tigers to a SCIAC title game on Saturday against top-seeded Cal Lutheran.

In a MASCAC semifinal, Framingham State emerged with an 81-55 win over Salem State. In that victory, FSU’s Flannery O’Connor scored 24 points along with 19 rebounds, four assists, and two blocks in an absolutely stellar performance. Her presence will be key as FSU prepares to face Bridgewater State in the MASCAC title game. FSU also set a new program record for wins, with 23, last night, surpassing the previous high of 22.

Houghton pulled off a big win at Nazareth in the Empire 8 Tournament semifinals, 63-52, sending Houghton to its first E8 championship game. Second-seeded Nazareth fell behind in the first quarter, and never got especially close to taking back a lead, as third-seeded Houghton took down the Golden Flyers for the second time within the last two weeks.

Scranton and Elizabethtown battled hard in the Landmark Conference semifinals, with Scranton eventually pulling out a 51-42 win. But it was close all the way through, and with 5:43 left, the score was tied at 40. ETown briefly took a 41-40 lead with 3:23 left before Scranton scored the next six points. Notably, Kaci Kranson did not play for Scranton in the win, so that is something to keep an eye on heading into Saturday’s Landmark championship game, and the NCAA Tournament beyond.

Conference Championship Games finalized last night:

GNAC, Region 1: #2 St. Joseph (CT) at #1 St. Joseph’s (ME), Saturday

MASCAC, Region 2, #2 Bridgewater State at #1 Framingham State,

OAC, Region 7: #4 Ohio Northern at #2 Marietta, Saturday

PAC, Region 7: #5 Geneva at #2 Chatham, Saturday

MIAC, Region 9: #2 Concordia (MN) at #1 Gustavus Adolphus, Saturday

SCIAC, Region 10: #3 Occidental at #1 Cal Lutheran, Saturday

Championship Games on tap tonight

CUNYAC, Region 4: John Jay at Brooklyn, 5:30 p.m. ET

NJAC, Region 4: NJCU at TCNJ, 7:00 p.m. ET

WIAC, Region 10: UW-Stout at UW-Oshkosh, 8:00 p.m. ET

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The most impactful results of the weekend in D3 Women’s Hoops

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The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops by Riley Zayas

February 19, 2024

It’s been a few days since I posted a write-up here, but we’re in the postseason now (for almost everyone with the exception of the UAA) and I’m excited for what is to come. You can expect much more consistent coverage here as we follow along through conference tournaments and into this weekend as the NCAA Tournament discussions ramp up. This is such a fun time of the year to be following D3 women’s hoops!

I wanted to quickly recap some of the most impactful games of the weekend (all of them coming from Saturday’s slate) from a regional ranking/Pool C perspective. As I will note below, these were games that could shift regional rankings as well as the Pool C conversation and there will certainly be plenty more of these in the week ahead.

Before I get to that though, I wanted to quickly mention a few things…

  • The Conference Tournament Tracker is up on D3hoops.com…find that here and keep up with all of the tournament games across the country!
  • All data referenced here is from Scott Peterson’s D3 WBB website, d3data.weebly.com. Check it out if you get a chance. Lots of insightful data there, especially with Pool C outlook and projected final regional rankings.
  • I will probably not be putting out a Top 25 ballot breakdown this week as I want to focus more on regional rankings and conference tournaments. At this point in the year, those are the things that will be much more impactful to the national audience than my Top 25, but a screenshot of my ballot is below.

Most impactful games of the weekend
Scranton def. Elizabethtown, 67-58: The odds were stacked against Elizabethtown, playing on the road, but the Blue Jays certainly had a chance to knock off the Lady Royals, already holding one win over Scranton this season. But the Lady Royals defended their home court well, and in the process, eliminated Elizabethtown from Pool C contention. It is possible Elizabethtown remains regionally-ranked, which will help Scranton and Catholic, but the Blue Jays will likely fall to the No. 7 spot in Region 5.

Hardin-Simmons def. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 88-85: UMHB’s resume was not impacted all that much by the overtime loss at home to close the regular season, but HSU put itself in even more of a firm Pool C position, in the event the Cowgirls do not win the league tournament. UMHB’s Pool C resume remains solid as well, and it is likely we see The Cru still sitting at No. 1 in Region 10 tomorrow. For HSU, this was big, as the Cowgirls have been a bubble-in team for the last several weeks. Now, it’s safe to stay HSU is a lock to get into the tournament, with a projected final 865/523 resume.

Nazareth def. St. John Fisher, 73-65: In Region 3, this was a big win for Nazareth, who went down the road and took down its bitter rival. Due to an SOS tiebreaker, SJF got the top seed in the E8 Tournament, but there’s a chance Nazareth might jump ahead of SJF in Region 3. Maybe. SJF was No. 5 last week in R3, while Nazareth was No. 6. SJF is now 21-4, while the Golden Flyers are 22-3. In terms of projected resumes, Nazareth has an edge via both win percentage (+15 points) and SOS (+2 points). But current resumes are what is used. SJF has a slight edge on SOS, but it is very narrow. The two teams split their season series, and interestingly, both lost to Houghton two weeks ago. There are plenty of common opponents between the two, including Rochester, who Nazareth lost to, while SJF beat. I think SJF still probably stays ahead, but Nazareth’s head-to-head win makes this something to keep an eye on.

Vassar def. Ithaca, 66-59: Another big Region 3 result here. Vassar was No. 2, and Ithaca was No. 4 this past week in the regional rankings. Vassar lost to William Smith last week before bouncing back with this Ithaca win. By Vassar winning this one, I think it keeps them ahead in Region 3, which will be important considering three Liberty League teams are currently in the Top 4 in this region. Even with the loss, Ithaca’s Pool C resume is really solid. For Vassar to execute on the road like they did, coming off a bad loss, is impressive to me.

UW-Stout def. UW-Platteville, 66-52: I tell you what, Stout continues fighting elimination, and did so against a really good UW-Platteville team on Saturday. Stout found itself in a position six games into conference play in which the Blue Devils really couldn’t afford another loss without falling out of Pool C contention, and since that point, they’ve only lost once, to Oshkosh. Everything else has been a win, and Stout is currently sitting No. 6 in Region 9. With the depth in the region, they are the definition of a bubble team, with a slim Pool C possibility but a need to continue winning. Every time they step onto the court, they are fighting elimination from Pool C contention. As a reminder, tonight’s result against UW-River Falls has zero bearing on where Stout ends up in tomorrow’s regional rankings. Only games through Sunday are considered.

Marietta def. Baldwin Wallace, 71-56: The final team ranked in Region 7, Marietta kept itself in the Pool C conversation with this win over the OAC’s top team and did so on the road, which is so impressive. Margin of victory isn’t included in the NCAA regional ranking or Pool C conversation, but for my own assessment, I thought the 15-point win really added significance to Marietta’s victory. The Pioneers won that game on both ends of the floor, but are still going to be on the outside of the Pool C discussion. I think the Pool C chances are slight for Marietta, but still, this win at least keeps the Pioneers in the conversation. If you’re a Marietta fan, you need to be rooting for as few bid thieves as possible. It’s going to take a strong performance at the OAC Tournament and reaching the championship game. Of course, if Marietta wins the championship game, we don’t have to talk about the Pool C chances.

CalTech def. Whittier, 59-47 : CalTech played spoiler in the SCIAC on Saturday, and eliminated Whittier from the SCIAC playoffs, and as a result, NCAA Tournament contention. Whittier notably fell by just four points at NYU earlier this season, and seemed like a team that could make noise in the NCAA Tournament if they got in. As it turned out, Whittier’s season is already over. Only the top four teams in the SCIAC make the postseason, and the Poets ended up tied for fifth after the loss (at home!) to CalTech. Just a disappointing finish to what was a very promising season early, but credit to CalTech for pulling off that big win.

Piedmont def. Berea, 57-50: This result won’t affect the NCAA Tournament as Berea should be the Pool B selection by a significant margin. But it could affect the Region 6 regional rankings. Berea was No. 7 in R6 last week, and I have to think there’s a chance Berea falls out with this loss and Millsaps gets in. It’ll be close, and Berea’s 22-3 record is strong, but the 469 SOS is not good, especially with a committee that values SOS highly. We saw it with undefeated Webster being unranked. So I’m not sure 22-3 is automatically going to keep Berea in. But then again, Millsaps 472 SOS is only three points higher, and doesn’t seem like enough to overcome 73 points of win percentage. So we’ll see.

Game of the Day: UW-River Falls at UW-Stout (WIAC Tournament)

As I already mentioned, this is a must-win for Stout in terms of staying alive in Pool C. And for UWRF, it is also a must-win. It’s tournament time. Neither team really has a Pool C berth to fall back on, so it heightens the intensity of this matchup that much more. What makes it more interesting is that both matchups this season have been especially close and competitive. They just played last Wednesday with Stout at home, and the Blue Devils emerged with a 71-66 win. I fully expect a similar-type game tonight, and both teams can shoot the ball well. UWRF is one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the league, so Stout’s perimeter defense needs to be on point through all four quarters, and Macy Nilsen always tends to be a tough matchup for the Stout defense. She is one of the more dynamic scorers in the WIAC, and scored 29 points in last week’s meeting with the Blue Devils. Stout has a high scorer of its own in Raegan Sorensen, who had 35 points against UW-Eau Claire two weeks ago, and both Nilsen and Sorensen rank in the top three in points per game in the WIAC. 7 p.m. CT tip-off from Menomonie tonight. Watch here: https://wiacnetwork.com/stout/

Have a great rest of your day! I’ll check back in tomorrow morning and take a look back on how tonight’s conference tournament action unfolded.

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The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops: In this past week, here are resumes that saw rises and resumes that took hits

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By Riley Zayas

February 12, 2024

Welcome back to another week! I’ll have a Top 25 ballot breakdown for you soon, but wanted to first take a look at the teams whose resumes rose and fell the most over this past week. These are my thoughts and assessments, and not necessarily the way it will be perceived by the regional advisory committees in putting together regional rankings today. Additionally, as I will note throughout this, not all of these teams are in Pool C contention, so some of the teams I mention are still only able to reach the national tournament via Pool A, even with an improved set of results.

But here are a few thoughts for you as we begin the FINAL week of the regular season (for everyone except the UAA)!

Teams whose resumes are on the rise
Trinity (CT): The Bantams are 18-6 overall, but 8-2 in the NESCAC, which is tough to do considering the depth in the league this season. With five straight wins heading into the NESCAC Tournament, something has certainly clicked for Trinity as of late. A 59-45 win over Bates on Friday really pushes the Bantams into a position where they could host in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, an opportunity that appeared pretty doubtful when they dropped four games between Nov. 26 and Dec. 9. Reilly Campbell has recorded four-straight double-digit scoring performances and the Bantams currently lead the NESCAC in scoring defense and free throw percentage. I will not be surprised if we see Trinity still playing in the second weekend of the national tournament.

Concordia-Moorhead: The Cobbers’ 2-0 week was highlighted by their 73-65 win over #4 Gustavus Adolphus, as it not only makes the MIAC title race a bit more interesting, but very much keeps Concordia in the Pool C conversation. The Cobbers are 9-0 at home this season, and by splitting the season series with Gustavus, solidified their spot within the Region 9 regional rankings. Now 17-4, and 16-2 in MIAC play, Concordia is on the rise and playing some of its best basketball at the right time of year.

Smith: The Pioneers went 3-0 on the week, opening things up with a 68-61 win at Tufts before holding Mount Holyoke to 26 points in yet another victory, followed by Saturday’s 68-63 road win at MIT. Two of those wins (both on the road) came against Massey Top 100 opponents along with another RRO win over MIT for Smith. The Pioneers have reached the 20-win mark now, as well, and are 20-3, sitting atop the NEWMAC standings along with Springfield. Smith should be a solid No. 2 in Region 2 behind Rhode Island College.

UW-Stout: The Blue Devils were sitting dead last in the WIAC three weeks ago, with a 1-5 league record. But in a pretty remarkable turnaround, Stout has won four straight and five of its last six. The Blue Devils now sit in fourth place in the league standings, and are 16-7 overall, playing with plenty of confidence and momentum in a late-season surge. Raegan Sorensen had 35 points to lead Stout to a dominant win at UW-Eau Claire on Saturday, 96-64. Why is Stout’s stock rising so much? Well, they beat both UWEC and UW-La Crosse on the road by double-digit margins this past week, and the fact that they previously lost to both of those teams at home makes the victories that much more impressive. The Blue Devils head into the final week of the regular season with a pair of home games upcoming against UW-River Falls and UW-Platteville and are #14 in Massey.

Willamette: The Bearcats now likely have the No. 1 resume in Region 10 after a pair of huge home wins over Pacific and Puget Sound this past week. Willamette now holds a two-game lead in the NWC and just continues to find ways to win. The Pacific win came on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Elyse Waldal in a dramatic conclusion to such a back-and-forth game and Saturday’s 57-47 victory over a quality Puget Sound squad saw Willamette lead 34-17 at halftime. The Bearcats are really in a good position to close the regular season this week with a 12-2 record since January. That’s impressive.

Albion: There are a couple potential bid stealers in the MIAA, and Albion is certainly one of them. The Britons have won five straight, including a statement 67-41 over Calvin on Wednesday that now puts them a half-game back of Trine in the MIAA standings. Albion isn’t in position to be ranked in the Top 25 or contend for a Pool C spot, but the win over Calvin was an impressive result. Going further back, Albion has wins over Trine and Alma and while the Britons are just 5-5 on the road this season, I do think this is a team with the capability to spring an MIAA Tournament upset, especially with the way they are playing lately.

Teams whose resumes took a hit
Dickinson: I’m not sure what happened to Dickinson this past week, but the Red Devils looked very much out of sorts. They dropped three straight games in the span of seven days, including a 70-67 OT loss to Massey #147 Washington College (MD) on Saturday. That came on the heels of double-digit home losses to Centennial Conference foes Gettysburg and Johns Hopkins, and Dickinson is now 16-7 overall with a 13-5 mark in the league. In a very tough Region 5, I’m not sure the win percentage will hold up, despite a projected SOS of .550, much less earn Dickinson a Pool C bid. This week’s performance may put Dickinson in that “Pool A or bust” category, especially because Elizabethtown holds a 1-0 head-to-head against them, and has a good chance to move ahead of Dickinson, potentially “blocking” the Red Devils from even getting to the Pool C table until late in the process.

Mary Hardin-Baylor: The Cru are 1-3 on the road in their last four road games and two of those losses came this past week to UT-Dallas and Ozarks. UMHB has now dropped to second place behind Hardin-Simmons and while the Crusaders are still in a fairly comfortable Pool C position, UMHB does have McMurry and Hardin-Simmons coming up this week at home in a two very tough conference duels. The offense has stagnated, even with Arieona Rosborough back on the floor this week, and UMHB is now shooting below 40% from the field on the season (39.7%).

Messiah: Out of the MACC, the Falcons still have a Pool C shot, but it is fairly low, and a loss at Widener on Wednesday hurt those chances quite a bit more. Ranked #153 by Massey, Widener sprung the 56-50 upset and I’m interested to see how the Region 5 committee evaluates both this loss for Messiah as well as Dickinson’s results that I mentioned above. Credit to Messiah, we saw a bounce-back win at York, 52-39, two days ago, but in a league like the MACC, you really can’t afford any conference losses if you want to be in a prime Pool C position.

Colorado College: The Pool C chances are essentially nonexistent for Colorado College (now 16-7, 10-4 in SCAC), but still, the Tigers were in close contention with Trinity (TX) for the SCAC regular season title and No. 1 SCAC Tournament seed entering the week. Instead, CC heads back to Colorado with back-to-back losses, having dropped consecutive games for just the second time all season (the first came when they played NYU and Tufts in consecutive order). Having watched both games, credit goes to both Schreiner and Trinity (TX) for the big wins over CC, and the travel schedule isn’t easy for the Tigers. But they certainly looked out of sorts in a 69-63 overtime loss at Schreiner on Friday, and yesterday, Trinity hit several big 3-pointers and the CC defense struggled to keep up in a 90-80 loss. Their resume took a hit, and from a logistics standpoint, CC will now most likely be the No. 3 seed in the SCAC Tournament, meaning Trinity and TLU get the coveted first-round tournament byes while CC will now need to win three games in three days to make it to March.

There are several other teams that would qualify for this conversation, but these were a handful that stuck out to me. We don’t have a very large slate of games at all tonight, but the schedule really ramps up as the week progresses. Lots of marquee matchups are on tap especially on Friday and Saturday! Plus, the NESCAC Tournament tips off this weekend. Also, stay tuned for tomorrow’s release of the ordered regional rankings, as we’ll find out how many of these regions are shaping up, and what the Pool C order could look like based on where the committee placed several teams, especially in the deeper regions. Until then, have a great rest of your day!