D3hoops.com Daily Dose | The daily dish on Division III basketball

Feb/12

27

Our projected women’s bracket

JHU tips it up with Muhlenberg
Johns Hopkins is hosting games in our bracket. Why?

Well, here we are, another Selection Monday.

Hoping that Matt Snyder’s projected men’s field would whet appetites for a while, we started with the projected women’s bracket this year. And this year, it turned out nothing was particularly easy to figure out.

As a reminder, this is equal parts what we think the committee WILL do and what they SHOULD do. It’s meant to give readers some idea what might happen on Monday at 2:30 p.m. ET, when the selection show is scheduled to start. (Show will be linked from the front page of D3hoops.com.)

We talked extensively on Hoopsville about a glut of teams with very similar resumes, and that was the most difficult group to parse out. But after selecting St. Joseph’s (Bklyn.) as the only Pool B team, here was how Pool C broke down, in the order selected:

Kean
Washington U.
Juniata
UW-River Falls
UW-Whitewater
Tufts
Rochester
Southern Maine
U. New England
Hartwick
Johns Hopkins
Louisiana College
St. Vincent
Bowdoin
York (Pa.)
St. Lawrence
Colby
Carthage
Simpson
Lewis and Clark

Left on the table were Rutgers-Newark, Buffalo State, UW-Eau Claire, Hope, King’s, Williams, Virginia Wesleyan and Gustavus Adolphus was next up in the West. It was once thought King’s was in, but the Monarchs played just one game against a regionally ranked opponent, and lost that one at that. Messiah was trapped behind King’s because King’s had a better record against common opponents (8-0 to Messiah’s 7-1) and Virginia Wesleyan lost to Messiah.

St. Vincent moved itself out of the glut of teams with a win against Messiah and another against Misericordia. Colby edged in over Rutgers-Newark with two wins against Williams, while Rutgers-Newark was 0-1 against the Ephs. Carthage edged out Simpson with a 2-2 record against common opponents, although both eventually got in, and Lewis and Clark was lucky to find a spot still there when they came up. They have a pretty good strength of schedule (.539) but were 0-3 against regionally ranked opponents.

Bracketing was even more fun, trying to spread out New England teams that had played each other quite frequently. In fact, Rhode Island College’s first-round opponent changed twice just while copying names into the bracket.

Take a look at the full bracket.

Bear in mind that William Paterson and Amherst wouldn’t be able to host the opening weekend in women’s basketball this year because their men’s teams are expected to host games.

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28 comments

  • Author comment by silentk · February 27, 2012 at 2:29 am

    Do you really see DePauw getting the #1 seed over George Fox in that fourth of the bracket? I know their SOS isn’t the highest but their record should keep them in that top spot.

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 2:31 am

    George Fox is our top seed. Not sure what more they can do than that. If there were an overall seed, I would have George Fox fourth and DePauw fifth.

  • Author comment by silentk · February 27, 2012 at 2:34 am

    I meant that DePauw is placed where the #1 seed is in ncaa brackets and I think George Fox should have that place. The “their” in my comment was GFU not DePauw.

    Thanks for your quick response!

  • Author comment by blugoldfan · February 27, 2012 at 3:28 am

    I don’t see how you can put UW-River Falls and UW-Whitewater into the field so quickly and omit UW-Eau Claire entirely. If you look at the head-to-head records of the top four WIAC teams, Stevens Point was 6-2, River Falls and Eau Claire were 3-4 and Whitewater was 3-5 (and lost three times to Point). UW-EC is certainly a better choice than Simpson, and (to judge from the Hoopsville discussion earlier) Lewis & Clark. Doesn’t 13-3 in a league as tough as the WIAC count for something?

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 3:29 am

    Well, they need to be able to get to the table, and I’m not sure how we get them to the table ahead of Carthage. They were behind Carthage when the week started and I didn’t see enough there to overturn that. You didn’t even address Carthage in your post, but that is the roadblock, not Simpson or Lewis and Clark.

  • Author comment by bgalls1968 · February 27, 2012 at 4:03 am

    Pat–

    How do you justify UW-River Falls over UW-Eau Claire? Winning a share of the regular season conference championship means “nothing”? 13-3 in the WIAC. UWEC was 3-4 against the top teams in that conference. They beat Stevens Point, River Falls, and Whitewater, and had NO bad losses. River Falls did not beat Whitewater this year. You have yet to explain why a team that finished 4th in the conference should get in ahead of a team that won the regular season title. River did not get to the WIAC tournament championship game. You have not justified that pick.

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 4:06 am

    bgalls: UW-River Falls was ahead of UW-Eau Claire in last week’s regional rankings:

    http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2012/02/22/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-3/

    You have to justify why that would change this week. They did not face each other this week. What’s your reason for the switch?

    Winning a share of a regular-season title is nice but it’s not what the NCAA cares about. It cares about every regional game, not just the 16 in the conference.

  • Author comment by bgalls1968 · February 27, 2012 at 4:17 am

    Winning a share of a regular-season title is nice? That’s your comeback? Pat, the body of work is worth something. That’s the problem with Division 3 basketball, has been and always will be. There is absolutely no respect for what these student-athletes have worked hard for the entire season. I don’t know who votes in these regional rankings. You still have not justified why River Falls should get in ahead of Eau Claire. Regional Rankings? They are worthless. You need more than that to have any credibility.

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 4:21 am

    No, honestly, the regional rankings are all I need. The regional rankings are done by the same people who will make the selections, using the same criteria! You need to show why those same people, using the same information, will feel differently this week than they did last week.

    The problem with Division III is when people assume it’s like Division I, and it most definitely is not. You’re a reporter — do some reporting of your own and let us know what you come up with.

    Did you read our Twitter exchange with a writer in your market before UW-EC’s WIAC tournament loss? This should not surprise you.

  • Author comment by bgalls1968 · February 27, 2012 at 4:30 am

    You still have not justified River Falls over Eau Claire. SOS? RPI? Come on Pat. And no I don’t follow your Twitter account. I don’t need to, we cover the games in person.

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 4:34 am

    You can ask the NCAA why they did it.

    Justin Harings at the Leader-Telegram also goes to the games but he follows @d3hoops too. His followers learned Thursday night what you missed out on by not following:

    https://twitter.com/#!/d3hoops/status/172829630640828417

    https://twitter.com/#!/d3hoops/status/172829978503819264

    https://twitter.com/#!/JustinHarings/status/172830997665153024

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 4:35 am

    There is no RPI in Division III. Unless you mean Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, but they are not a candidate for an at-large bid.

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 4:49 am

    I suspect the NCAA is looking at the big strength of schedule gap — they are both very good but a 34-point gap is significant and is more than enough justification for ranking UWRF ahead of UWEC.

    UW-River Falls 20-6 .769 .613
    UW-Eau Claire 20-5 .800 .579

  • Author comment by silentk · February 27, 2012 at 4:51 am

    I think the person meant Ratings Percentage Index when they said RPI because it was used next to SOS aka strength of schedule.

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 4:55 am

    I was just pointing out that there is an RPI in Division III, but it’s not a statistical measurement. Supports my statement earlier that too many people think Division III is just like Division I.

    Following us on Twitter is a good way to avoid making bad assumptions. We might not teach you much about your local team but we might … and you could learn about the rest of Division III so you’re not blindsided on Selection Monday.

    And after all this, UWEC might well get in! They are very close. But it won’t be at the expense of UWRF, or else the NCAA has some explaining to do.

  • Author comment by silentk · February 27, 2012 at 5:08 am

    I for one appreciate what you all do to keep D-III fans informed about the schools outside their bubbles. Sorry, I misread your comment about RPI.

    And I for one do follow you on twitter. :-D

    Thanks for the predictions!

  • Author comment by d3womensfan · February 27, 2012 at 8:41 am

    Any comments about the Juniata College women? Went 25-1 before suffering a setback against Catholic in the Landmark Conference championship. Ranked #10 in both D3 polls. Do you think they will make the Sweet 16?

  • Author comment by bearcat · February 27, 2012 at 9:56 am

    Big follower of St Vincent. Are you confident the Bearcats are safely in or should I be nervous? Thanks!

  • Author comment by beavers · February 27, 2012 at 10:22 am

    Where do you now rank Babson regionally after 2012 NEWMAC conference championship?

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 10:33 am

    Feel free to be nervous.

  • Author comment by bearcat · February 27, 2012 at 10:43 am

    How good is your track record in projecting the field?

  • Author comment by tommies1 · February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am

    I dont understand how its set up with the mens bracket as well. You have St.Thomas hosting the first weekend here which they should, but the men have themselves hosting first weekend as well. Because of overall record and rankings shouldnt the women host and the men be the ones who would travel? All this for St.Thomas. What made Gustavus be kicked out of the tourney as well?

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 11:03 am

    We have the Tommie men hosting a single game Thursday and traveling on Saturday if they win. Women hosting Friday and Saturday.

  • Author comment by flamethrower · February 27, 2012 at 11:40 am

    Help me out here… You’re projecting Rochester women for an at large bid when they’ve been tanking (lost 6 of their last 8 games). I know the UAA is strong, but…

  • Author comment by johnmmmm · February 27, 2012 at 3:15 pm

    Pat -

    Cannot thank you and the folks at D3 for all you do. What you add to the whole D3 world is simply outstanding and helps bring all the sports to life for D3 teams, relatives and D3 fanatics. Appreciate you take a little heat from time to time, but, you do that so gracefully. Mr Coleman and Co. you are class acts. Keep doing the good work.

  • Author comment by johnmmmm · February 27, 2012 at 3:18 pm

    PS. Are your surprised the WIAC Woman send four. Is this a first?

  • Admin comment by Pat Coleman · February 27, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Thanks, appreciate it. I don’t know if it’s the first time the WIAC has sent four. It’s not the first time a conference has sent four under the Pools system but usually it’s the UAA or the NESCAC.

    In 1996 and 1997, Eau Claire, Oshkosh and Stout each made the field of 64.

  • Author comment by love22hoop · February 27, 2012 at 10:04 pm

    Who do you think will make it to the final four?

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