This week, I decided to do some number-crunching to see what the historical Top 25 polls might have to say about which regions are the strongest. Be prepared to be bored, and don’t say you weren’t warned!
The first thing that leaps off the page at me is the balance in the men’s polls, relative to the women. At present, there are 386 non-provisional D3 men’s teams; of those, over one in three (138, 35.8%) have been ranked in at least one of the 131 polls taken since 1999. There are 23 more women’s programs, but 16 fewer teams (122, 29.8%) have cracked the poll (and there’s even been one extra women’s poll!) The same pattern holds when you look at voting patterns rather than rankings: nearly 60% of the men’s teams (229) have received votes, while less than half of the women’s programs (195) have earned voting support. What these data suggest to me is that the women’s game tends to be more concentrated at the top, with the best programs sticking in the poll, while the men’s teams have a slightly stronger tendency to come and go. This is perhaps underscored by the fact that there are now eight women’s programs that have been ranked in at least 100 polls, vs. just two for the men.
Looking at the men’s regions, it seems to be the conventional wisdom that the “strongest” regions have generally been the three westernmost–the West, Midwest, and Great Lakes—but the data doesn’t necessarily support this. The Midwest (48%) and West (44.4%) have each produced 24 ranked teams, but third on this list is not the Great Lakes (17) but the South (20 teams). These two regions are roughly equal on percentage terms, as the south is a larger region (33 to 26), meaning that about 40% of each region has been ranked. The four eastern regions lag far behind, with 17 teams each from the large Northeast (24%) and smaller Mid-Atlantic (33%), and less than 30% of the East (10) and Atlantic (9), having been ranked. The voting patterns are somewhat more balanced, with each of the West, Midwest, and South regions having two-thirds of their current members receiving votes, leading the Great Lakes (62%), East (57%), Atlantic (56%), and Northeast (49%).
The women’s polling has been much more balanced. The Central Region (20 ranked teams out of 52 non-provisionals, 38.5%) is on top, but only the Atlantic (11/46, 24%) is more than 12 percentage points behind. The voting show a greater discrepancy, with the Great Lakes a clear leader at 61%, 9 percentage points ahead of the second-place Central. Perhaps this suggests that the Great Lakes has a number of good-but-not-great programs (15 that have received votes but never enough to reach #25), while the Central is filled with haves (20 ranked teams) and have-nots (25 programs that have yet to receive their first vote) with little (7 schools) in between.
On a somewhat related note, by virtue of the three points earned by Middlebury this week, the NESCAC becomes the seventh men’s conference to have every team receive votes at one time or another. (The other six are the HCAC, NJAC, OAC, UAA, USA-South, and WIAC.) Of these, the WIAC stands alone as the only conference in which each team has been ranked. There are four other men’s conferences that are one program short of 100% participation (CCIW, Empire 8, LEC, and NEWMAC), and one conference that is one team away from joining the WIAC with every team ranked: the CCIW (and that team is Millikin.) This is all in sharp contrast to the women, where the only conference to have every team receive votes is the UAA (and all but Emory have been ranked), and just two conferences (HCAC and NESCAC) are one team short.
For those of you who are still awake, on with the categories!
Debutantes:
Women: Two excellent women’s programs that have recently been overshadowed by their male counterparts stepped into the limelight this week. #11 Amherst, one of the dwindling number of unbeatens left, cracked the Top 25 for the first time ever. Down in Jersey, the Stevens Ducks are out to an 8-0 start in the Empire 8, and this week joined the voting rolls for the first time.
Men: Used to success in a wide variety of sports, Middlebury College can now add men’s basketball to their list of honored programs, as the Panthers become the 10th and final NESCAC member to debut as vote-getters in the D3Hoops.com poll.
Congratulations to the Lord Jeffs, Ducks, and Panthers!
Streakers:
Women: Third-ranked NYU, in addition to reaching a pair of significant milestones (see below), extended their streak of Top 25 appearances to 20 weeks. Both #11 Kean and #12 Randolph-Macon have now received votes in 10 straight polls, while Brandeis saw their own voting streak come to an end after 62 weeks.
Men: #3 Amherst finds itself among the Top 10 for the 30th straight week, while #22 Virginia Wesleyan has an ongoing Top 25 streak of identical duration. VWC’s conference mate #17 Guilford has received votes in 20 straight polls, ten more than Amherst’s archrival #8 Williams.
Milestones:
Women: The Violets of #3 NYU are ranked for the 100th time in this poll, with 60 of those rankings being within the Top 10. Ninth-ranked Simpson and #16 George Fox each made their 50th appearance in the Top 25 this week. Other Top 25 milestones reached this week include #15 Southern Maine (110 weeks), #12 Randolph-Macon and #24 Cortland St. (40 weeks), #25 Puget Sound (30), #18 Illinois Wesleyan (20), and #6 Thomas More (10 weeks.) IWU also reached a voting milestone, appearing on the list of vote-getters for the 30th time, a distinction they share with #20 Medaille.
Men: This week marks the 75th time that #3 Amherst has been ranked among the Top 10 teams. Both #2 Brandeis and #4 Mary Hardin-Baylor are ranked for the 10th time. #8 Williams received votes for the 90th time; #17 Guilford and #24 Carnegie Mellon are twenty-time vote-getters, and #15 Stevens received support for the 10th week.
High-Water Marks:
Women: New all-time highs were achieved this week by #2 Howard Payne, #6 Thomas More, #14 Tufts, and Top 25 debutante #22 Amherst. Both #8 McMurry and #20 Medaille equaled their previous high-water mark.
Men: Fourth-ranked Mary Hardin-Baylor and #20 Centre reached new all-time high rankings this week, while #2 Brandeis tied their best-ever mark.
Movers and Shakers:
Women: It seems like the same story every week: the largest moves were again the downward ones. #18 Illinois Wesleyan lost to 2005 champion Millikin, costing them 161 points and 8 poll positions. #24 Cortland St. had their hopes of an undefeated season ended by new #23 William Smith, resulting in a 159-point, 8 position drop for the Dragons and a best-of-the-week 62 point gain for the Herons.
Men: Unbeaten Mass.-Dartmouth was the week’s biggest gainer, adding 104 points in their five-slot gain to #14. Five teams each fell at least four places on the average ballot after losing this week: #18 Wheaton (IL) (-129 points), #9 Augustana (-120), #17 Guilford (-118), Lewis & Clark (-114), and #22 Virginia Wesleyan (-101.)
DC, are you sure that all 10 NJAC teams have received votes at some point since 99? I do not think that Rutgers Camden has ever received votes but I may be wrong.
Rutgers-Camden men received 3 votes in the 2001-02 Week 3 poll. I can’t believe you’ve forgotten this! 😉
I just couldn’t suspend belief in reality to ever acknowledge or accept the fact. 🙂
David – your analysis is predicated on how legitimate the D3 Top 25 rankings are in ranking the best teams in the country. I am a supporter of the Elizabethtown College team, which is 12-1 and cannot crack the top 25. Also, 2 other Middle Atlantic State Conference teams are having great seasons, Widener at 13-1 and DeSales at 12-1, yet between the 3 of them they wouldn’t have enough votes to be #25. I note that the CCIW has 3 teams in the D3 Top 25 (and one at #26) as does the WIAC. I would venture to say that the voting may not be representative of the balance of power in D3 basketball. It obvious that the voting is focussed on specific conferences and teams.
Looking at common opponents of the Middle Atlantic State Conference teams and others that are in the D3 Top 25, some of the voting does not make sense. For example, Elizabethtown beat John Hopkins, which beat Carnagie-Mellon, but Carnagie Mellon is ranked #24 with a 10-2 record and Elizabethtown is not ranked.
I guess that is why they play the games and have a tournament. But, it does not seem right that teams such as DeSales, Widener and Elizabethtown cannot get recognition for the great seasons that they are having.
JDirago: Each region has three voters, for a total of 24, and I am the 25th voter. The voter pool is very balanced.
Just having a good record isn’t enough to be in the Top 25. You also have to play a good schedule and perform well against it.
Let’s go, for example, to the Massey Ratings, a computer ranking of games that has no human element whatsoever and therefore can’t be subject to a bias of any kind. It ranks Elizabethtown 38th.
http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1
DeSales is ranked 31st, Widener 70th with the 311th-strongest schedule in Division III.
The winner of the upcoming DeSales/Etown game deserves a look, perhaps. But a sure sign of a weak argument is having to use a common opponent that beat your team in a home game two months ago.
I would say this, however — there’s not much MAC Commonwealth representation on our message board. You should join the conversation there too.
http://www.d3sports.com/post/
There is MAC Commonwealth representation on the Top 25 voter panel, however. 🙂
JDirago,
My analysis is indeed predicated on the legitimacy of the D3hoops.com poll, because that’s what I’m writing about. If I wanted to criticize it, I’d be more likely to do that in the message board. I welcome reasoned criticism of the poll in here, but I feel it would be out of place and indeed disorienting for me to do it in this column. I write about what’s in the poll, not whether what’s there should be there or not.
You may feel that the teams you mention are underrepresented in the poll, but even if that’s true the historical data don’t generally support it. Widener, for example, has received votes in 46 polls, ranking them 51st among the 386 men’s teams. Elizabethtown has received votes in 32 polls (68th), and DeSales 19 (tied for 92nd.) That may not be as often or as high as you’d prefer, but it does show that they’ve not been overlooked.
And I should note that all six members of the MACC have appeared in the voting at one time or another in the 8+ season history of the men’s poll. If one could consider the MACC to be a “conference” (rather than half of a conference), then they’d be on the short list of eight conferences that can claim that every member has appeared in the voting at one time or another. Those conferences are listed above; they do not include such well-regarded conferences as the CCIW, MIAA, and ODAC.
Personally, I am not up to speed on MAC play this season, and I am not a poll voter, so I can’t argue whether or not your teams are over- or under-ranked. But I thank you for your comments.
David, thank you for the analysis.
The difference between men’s programs and women’s programs in D3 raised the questions as to whether the difference exists over the last decade in D-1 among the major polls. Is there a similar percentage of men’s and women’s programs in D-1 that have received votes in the major polls? If there is an equal percentage of teams receiving votes over a decade, then that might mean that there is enough talent to distribute itself to the programs as they get better or get worse with good coaching, institutional support, etc.
My impression is that there is still insufficient “D3” calibre talent among women to populate the number of D3 schools that offer basketball. Chad Grubbs, the SID at Hardin-Simmons, thinks that we see a large number of very good “one-dimensional” players in our conference. Multi-dimensional players are still garnering scholarships in D-1, D-2 and NAIA in the Southwest. (Among the men, the multi-dimensional players are a little too short, or too slow to make D-I.)
Title IX has helped, but I still think that we are still a generation away from having potentiated the full biological extent of female athletes with college-level talent. As a result, the better programs with better coaches and administrative or institutional support still garner most of the female talent. These have continued to dominate the polls and even their own conferences. Among the men, there is more talent to select / recruit.
FWIW, here is the breakdown of Division III national championships by CURRENT region:
West – 8 (’84, 89, 91, 95, 98, 99, 04, 05)
Great Lakes – 7 (’77, 82, 88, 92, 93, 00, 02)
Midwest – 6 (’78, 79, 80, 85, 87, 97)
Mid-Atlantic – 4 (’76, 83, 94, 01)
East – 3 (’81, 86, 90)
Northeast – 2 (’03, 07)
South – 1 (’06)
Atlantic – 1 (’96)
By percentage:
West – 25%
Great Lakes – 22%
Midwest – 19%
Mid-Atlantic – 13%
East – 9%
Northeast – 6%
South – 3%
Atlantic – 3%
(This does not include the inaugural – 1975 – D3 tourney winner LeMoyne-Owen, now Division II.)
JDirago:
It’s not a Top 25 placement, but we will broadcast Elizabethtown’s Saturday showdown with DeSales on D3hoopsNet at 3 pm EST.
http://www.d3hoops.com/audio/
Pat Coleman: Thanks for your response – mostly. I understand how the D3 hoops poll works and how it is “theoretically balanced.” And certainly just having a good record isn’t enough to be in the Top 25 – as I noted regarding Elizabethtown, Widener and DeSales. But, it is difficult to get recognition for a good schedule when the teams in a particular conferrence or region are not getting recognition. That is why looking at common opponents is worth a look.
Regarding strength of schedule, a victory over a strong D2 team such as Elizabethtown’s win over Millersville, should carry some weight. Millersville was 25-4 last year, finished #12 in the country, and returned 4 starters. It is 11-4 this season.
With respoect to your reference to the Massey Ratings, the rankings of Elizabethtown (37) and DeSales (31) certainly would indicate that these teams merit consideration for ranking when coupled with their record. If you view teams ranked in the D3 Top 25 like #15 Stevens, which is at 46 on Massey, and #21 Plattsburgh St, which is at 55 on Massey, there is even more basis for my observation.
Your comment that “the winner of the upcoming DeSales/Etown game deserves a look, perhaps” sounds more gratuitous than objective.
David Collinge: I appreciate your analysis and your column. My comment was only meant as an observation. It would be interesting to see how teams ranked in the final regular season D3 poll fared in the NCAA D3 tournament.
Gordon Mann: Thanks for the info on Saturday’s game and I will pass it along, but I will be at the game!
Looking at the past five seasons, meaning 20 Final Four teams for each of the men and women:
Men: all 20 teams were ranked in the final pre-tournament poll; 14 of them were in the top 10; 9 were in the top 5; average rank overall=8.3
Women: 19 of 20 teams were ranked; 14 were in the top 10; 9 were in the top 5; average rank overall=8.4
Plus you have to consider that the brackets are not balanced, giving some teams easier (in top 25 terms) paths to the final four than others. In other words, a 1-2-3-4 final four is usually impossible due to the brackets.
IMO, the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll has been extremely accurate in predicting tournament success.
Elizabethtown and DeSales are getting consideration for the top 25 poll.
Elizabethtown 22 poll points, DeSales 6 poll points.—Just not enough to be ranked, so their theorhetical ranking is #31 and #38………..hmmmmm that looks like Massey.
“IMO, the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll has been extremely accurate in predicting tournament success.”–DCollinge
But the d3hoops.com crew has not been very succesfull in using its poll to predict “the most likely team to disappoint”. Aye!
(if I could I’d insert a winking smiley)
David – I think the best the poll ever has done with the Final Four was on the women’s side a few years back. Heading into the tournament, the best the poll could expect was four of the top six making the Final Four – and it happened!
JDirago – I certainly understand your pain and “scratching-your-head” mentality sometimes when you think teams are being over looked. However, realize this… all three Mid-Atlantic teams are getting votes. That means there are voters out there that are putting those teams on their ballots. Do they deserve to be on more ballots? Maybe.
But there is something else that those teams – and many others – are dealing with: a chaotic Top 25 this season. There are a LOT of good teams this season and only 25 spots to put them all. Also consider, each of those teams has been rising in the rankings (vote total) each week as they continue to play well. E-Town was getting a lot more points until they lost to York – who, honestly, they should NOT have lost to if they are that good this season!