Our projected women’s bracket

JHU tips it up with Muhlenberg
Johns Hopkins is hosting games in our bracket. Why?

Well, here we are, another Selection Monday.

Hoping that Matt Snyder’s projected men’s field would whet appetites for a while, we started with the projected women’s bracket this year. And this year, it turned out nothing was particularly easy to figure out.

As a reminder, this is equal parts what we think the committee WILL do and what they SHOULD do. It’s meant to give readers some idea what might happen on Monday at 2:30 p.m. ET, when the selection show is scheduled to start. (Show will be linked from the front page of D3hoops.com.)

We talked extensively on Hoopsville about a glut of teams with very similar resumes, and that was the most difficult group to parse out. But after selecting St. Joseph’s (Bklyn.) as the only Pool B team, here was how Pool C broke down, in the order selected:

Kean
Washington U.
Juniata
UW-River Falls
UW-Whitewater
Tufts
Rochester
Southern Maine
U. New England
Hartwick
Johns Hopkins
Louisiana College
St. Vincent
Bowdoin
York (Pa.)
St. Lawrence
Colby
Carthage
Simpson
Lewis and Clark

Left on the table were Rutgers-Newark, Buffalo State, UW-Eau Claire, Hope, King’s, Williams, Virginia Wesleyan and Gustavus Adolphus was next up in the West. It was once thought King’s was in, but the Monarchs played just one game against a regionally ranked opponent, and lost that one at that. Messiah was trapped behind King’s because King’s had a better record against common opponents (8-0 to Messiah’s 7-1) and Virginia Wesleyan lost to Messiah.

St. Vincent moved itself out of the glut of teams with a win against Messiah and another against Misericordia. Colby edged in over Rutgers-Newark with two wins against Williams, while Rutgers-Newark was 0-1 against the Ephs. Carthage edged out Simpson with a 2-2 record against common opponents, although both eventually got in, and Lewis and Clark was lucky to find a spot still there when they came up. They have a pretty good strength of schedule (.539) but were 0-3 against regionally ranked opponents.

Bracketing was even more fun, trying to spread out New England teams that had played each other quite frequently. In fact, Rhode Island College’s first-round opponent changed twice just while copying names into the bracket.

Take a look at the full bracket.

Bear in mind that William Paterson and Amherst wouldn’t be able to host the opening weekend in women’s basketball this year because their men’s teams are expected to host games.

Taking a whack at Pool C

Last night I started running numbers with the intent of producing a full bracket, but was unable to do so before having to give up and get some sleep. Sleep is precious this time of year — way too much work to do and not enough time to do it.

But I got far enough through it to generate something useful, and that was my Pool C rankings. Here’s were I saw the teams shaking out if the season ended Wednesday night:

Pool C
1 UW-Stevens Point
2 Middlebury
3 Guilford
4 Virginia Wesleyan
5 Wheaton (Ill.)
6 Lycoming
7 Richard Stockton
8 Illinois Wesleyan
9 Colby
10 Brandeis
11 Randolph-Macon
12 Rutgers-Newark
13 Messiah
14 Oneonta State
15 Mary Hardin-Baylor
16 Ithaca
17 Augsburg
18 York (Pa.)
19 Defiance

After that, the teams on the board were Ramapo, NYU, Calvin, Wesley, Western Connecticut, DePauw, UW-La Crosse. Augustana was next behind Defiance.

To do this, of course, I had to pick champions in a bunch of conferences, to determine who the Pool C teams would be. Mostly these are top seeds, or top teams in the regional rankings from each conference.

Pool A Projected winner
AMCC Medaille
ASC Texas-Dallas
CAC St. Mary’s (Md.)
CC Franklin and Marshall
CSAC Cabrini
CUNYAC York (N.Y.)
CCIW Carthage
CCC Gordon
E8 St. John Fisher
GNAC Albertus Magnus
HCAC Anderson
IIAC Central
LAND Merchant Marine
LL St. Lawrence
LEC Rhode Island College
MASCAC Bridgewater State
MIAA Hope
MAC-C Albright
MAC-F DeSales
MWC St. Norbert
MIAC St. Thomas
NESCAC Williams
NEWMAC MIT
NJAC William Paterson
NAC Maine-Farmington
NATHC Aurora
NCAC Wooster
NEAC SUNYIT
NWC Whitworth
OAC John Carroll
ODAC Eastern Mennonite
PAC Thomas More
SLIAC Westminster (Mo.)
SKY SUNY-Old Westbury
SCIAC Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
SCAC Austin
SUNYAC Plattsburgh State
UAA Washington U.
USAC North Carolina Wesleyan
WIAC UW-Whitewater

It’s a rough first draft, and nothing ever accounts for conference tournament upsets. But the further down you are on the Pool C list, the less safe you are is someone on the Pool A list gets upset.