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Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 4

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(Please forgive the lack of links and items like bolded words and such, like normal. Having trouble with formatting this week.)

Well then. Three weeks of results should make it far easier to determine who are the best 25 teams in the country. Right? HA! Wrong.

Don’t get me wrong. I really didn’t have high expectations going into this week’s voting. I knew it was going to be tough. Last week, I had read somewhere there was 90+ schools in Division III men’s basketball with 2 or fewer losses, I think. So in preparation to vote and for this blog, I double-checked that number on the NCAA stats website: it’s actually 64 teams (through games played 1/3/16) – women have 78 teams, in case you were curious. At least the number wasn’t 90+, but 64 teams with two or fewer losses is still a lot of programs.

No. Before you think I am going to consider every one of those 2-loss teams for my ballot, that isn’t possible.

Yes. I also didn’t preclude teams who have lost more than two games. Heck, there were several sitting on my previous ballot.

But just in the simplest of thinking: there are more than 70 teams out of 415 (technically) that one could at least bring up based on their record and say, “why not so-and-so” when talking about the Top 25. A ballot that only represents the top six-percent of the division… and more than 17-percent of the division could make some kind of argument to be included. In early January.

Staggering.

The result? I nearly blew the entire ballot up. If I actually had more time in my day on Monday (I had a basketball game to attend for a client), I would have done it. Instead, I did the next best thing: a major shake-up.

For those who know me and these blogs over the last few years, you know I am good for at least one “blow-up” vote a season. Usually two. While I resorted to a major shake-up this time around, I am already looking to probably having to blow it up in the next week or two and start nearly from scratch.

I won’t bore you with why and how I blow up a ballot in this blog, but the major shake-up took shape when I got into the section between 5-10 as I voted. I had a team moving down into the group, I had teams at the bottom of the ballot who really needed to move up and probably deserved more than a handful of spots. I also have had a large drop off in my feelings of who really is the best seventh, eighth, ninth, etc. best team in the country the entire season. As a result, I decided to get bold with a few teams and make some major moves northward. I also decided to just punt on a team I had ranked number ten previously. And I got aggressive both up and down with other squads. The moving around forced me to look outside of not only my Top 25 but who had been on my short-list but off the ballot in the previous weeks and search for other candidates.

Between the information we get from D3hoops.com, the information I had already had on the side to keep track of, and the information I went searching for on Sunday night and Monday… I probably had nearly 70 teams I considered in some manner this week. Some were easily dismissed. Others didn’t make it and are gnawing at me. Some made the ballot, despite reservations I have even sitting here now.

But I wasn’t alone. I spoke to several voters this week (most of whom reached out to me) and to say there is almost no consensus would be an understatement. Besides Augustana being the number one team in the country and maybe having the same feeling for who are the top four or five teams (not necessarily the same order), no one has even a remotely similar ballot. Everyone has valid arguments and opinions. No one feels absolutely sure they are right in their read on almost any of the teams.

There are many teams who are not living up to any expectations anyone had in the preseason or early part of the season. There are many other teams who are playing so far above preseason expectations it is hard to know if things are for real.

There is so much parity and so many good teams it is really hard to nail down who are the best 25 in the country right now.

Before we look at this week’s ballot, here is my ballot from mid-December. I wasn’t able to get my blog out due to football and other commitments that week, but you do need to know where I was coming from heading into this week.

1 – Augustana
2 – Whitworth
3 – Hope
4 – Amherst
5 – St. Thomas
6 – Ohio Wesleyan
7 – Elmhurst
8 – Marietta
9 – Christopher Newport
10 – Mount Union
11 – Babson
12 – Benedictine
13 – Chicago
14 – John Carroll
15 – Brooklyn
16 – Stockton
17 – Oswego State
18 – Salisbury
19 – Virginia Wesleyan
20 – Texas Lutheran
21 – East Texas Baptist
22 – Susquehanna
23 – Northwestern( Minn.)
24 – St. Norbert
25 – Wooster

That was Week 3, December 13th’s ballot.

Just to give you a head’s up, I did take a peak at early SOS numbers as best calculated my our friend —. I realize these numbers are very raw due to the fact a lot of teams haven’t played half their schedule and conference action hasn’t had an influence (good or bad), but they gave me an idea of what teams had in their out-of-conference scheduling (despite some conference games mixed in, but I can read between the lines with that). You can find the info here: . I did use it to break up some teams in a group, but usually the SOS number was dramatically different.

Here is this week’s ballot:

1 – Augustana^
I realize the Augies have had a few close games, but you have to expect that for a team who has a major target on their back for many reasons. They are getting into CCIW play where certainly every team and every coach knows each squad extremely well… and NO team has gone undefeated since 1973! Will Augustana go unfazed through conference action – NO! I expect Augustana to take a loss or two before we get to the NCAA tournament, but that doesn’t mean I still don’t think they are the best team in the country.

2 – Whitworth* (Unchanged)
I got the chance to see the Pirates in action at the D3hoops.com Classic (called both of their games, actually) – I liked what I saw. I realize Whitworth hasn’t played the most difficult out of conference (their SOS is/was below .500), but they have talent and depth at nearly every single position on the court. It starts with Kenny Love who isn’t even the team’s leading scorer (see Christian Jurlina AND George Valle), but he is the one that makes this team go and draws the most attention. But it goes beyond Love, Jurlina, and Valley… add in Staudacher, Sears, Roach, Baker, Bishop… the list just gets longer of the guys they can bring in – even freshman – who make an impact. This might be one of the best teams Whitworth has had and it is unheralded right now because it is so hard to judge them in the Pacific Northwest. Their game against Calvin was tight as expected (at least I didn’t think it was going to be an easy game and I have a few coaches who will testify me telling them that in Vegas) and their game against UMHB took them out of their comfort zone. I wasn’t surprised in the least. I am comfortable with the Pirates at number two.

3 – Hope (Unchanged)
Not sure what to add here. They got it done with four wins over the holiday break. They are the team to beat not only in the MIAA, but probably the Great Lakes Region – though that region is stacked at the top this year.

4 – St. Thomas* (Up 1)
Not much to add to what I have been talking about over the last few blogs. The Tommies didn’t have a very busy holiday break with just two games. They do now get into the conference tilt which isn’t as challenging schedule wise as in the past, but will still be daunting with Bethel, St. John’s, St. Olaf, Carleton, and Augsburg all with good first-half(ish) records and significant wins. The MIAC may be emerging as one of the top five in the country; it certainly is underrated in terms of talent and success.

5 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 1)
Another team who simply got the job done despite only playing two games. The Battling Bishops have a lot of talent, but now things get interesting as they re-enter conference play and Hiram enters the mix having beaten OWU already this season. Ohio Wesleyan needs to dominate a conference that can dominate for me to feel really comfortable with them at number five.

6 – Elmhurst (Up 1)
I might have the Blue Jays a little high or at least not behind the only team they have lost to (more on that in a minute), but that one loss is starting to look better and better as time goes on. I already had high expectations for Elmhurst and they are living up to them with this start to the season. They are beating all kinds of different teams in different ways showing they can score a lot of points (125 vs. Buena Vista) or shut down teams (50 points for Albion). The top of the CCIW this season with Elmhurst and Augustana is damn good.

7 – Amherst^ (Down 3)
I would have dropped the Lord Jeffs further, but there was only so far for them to fall. A bit brutal a treatment for taking their first loss of the season, but it wasn’t a good loss. Losing to Rhoades on the road isn’t what people expect from Amherst. It reminds me of last year’s holiday road trip that saw the Lord Jeffs blow a 15 points lead to Goucher (winning in OT after a buzzer beater forced the extra five minutes) and other stumbles during that trip. Plenty has been made of Dave Hixon’s scheduling on the D3boards which starts out slow with easier opponents and builds up, but the Lord Jeffs seem to be struggling at the holiday break before conference play often. I’m nervous thinking we assume Hixon has this under control when in reality we are just blinded by the words “Lord Jeff” and the purple colors. Eastern Connecticut, Williams, and Wesleyan in the next three (all at home, mind you) will tell us plenty. (By the way, I used the Lord Jeffs name as much as I could because it could be going away.)

8 – Susquehanna^ (Up 14)
Hello Crusaders! Susquehanna cracked into my Top 25 at #22 last ballot, but I didn’t get a chance to say anything about them. Maybe that was good as the holiday break has changed my mind. The Crusaders have probably the toughest out-of-conference schedule in years (at least, that’s what Frank Marcinek said on Hoopsville Sunday) and they are unbeaten. Those wins include hot-starting Lycoming, then-22nd-ranked Catholic, then-15th-ranked Trinity (Conn., 79-74), and Johns Hopkins in a mixure of home, away, and neutral games. They then reentered conference play with a dominating win over Moravian. Susquehanna came on late last season and the coaches in the conference picked them to be second (behind Catholic). It looks like the rest of us are just catching on that Susquehanna is maybe for real. (Here is another school I tried using their mascot name as much as possible because it is actually going away.)

9 – Benedictine (Up 3)
I didn’t think I would be voting for the Eagles in my top ten this season. My mentality was similar to my approaches to teams like Albertus Magnus in years past. I just thought there was a ceiling I couldn’t put them through. I also expected Benedictine to lost at least once in their non-conference, CCIW-only set of five games even if they had beaten Elmhurst to garner national attention in the first place. They haven’t. That has warranted at least one voter I know to put Benedictine number two on his ballot. I’m not buying that high (and my vote probably offsets enough to place them number six overall). My only concern and reason for pulling in the reigns more than others is the fact that when you truly look at their non-conference schedule… they are beating CCIW teams who would consider themselves “average” by their own standards: Illinois Wesleyan (6-6), Wheaton (4-8), North Central (8-4), Carthage (7-5). Yes, the North Central win is starting to look better after the Cardinals started 2-3 on the season. And yes, Benedictine did blow the socks off last year’s NACC champs, Aurora, a few weeks ago. All that adds up to a significant win (Elmhurst) and two solid wins (North Central and Aurora) and pushes the Eagles through the ceiling I had self-imposed. But can Benedictine, a team coaches expected to battle but finish second in the league, go undefeated? That seems like a tall order, so how they deal with a loss or two in conference will be the real story of the season.

10 – John Carroll (Up 7)
Ok, I have now bought in with the Blue Streaks. You might remember in previous ballots I stated I was “leery how high I put the Blue Streak” because of what we hadn’t seen in awhile from John Carroll – early season success. So higher they streak on my ballot, buoyed by the fact they went 3-0 during the holidays including a solid win over conference-foe Marietta and a pretty solid Brockport State squad while in Florida. But now comes a dogged conference schedule and what should be a three-horse race at the top. The OAC should be fun to watch this season.

11 – Christopher Newport (Down 2)
A loss to Scranton, even if it is on your home floor, isn’t the worst thing in the world. I am not punishing the Captains for the loss by dropping them two spots as much as I was opening a spot to get the undefeated teams who were behind them ahead of them now that CNU is no longer undefeated themselves. You will notice later my opinion on Scranton and thus why the loss isn’t horrible for Christopher Newport. However, they have to be careful in the Capital Athletic Conference ahead for them are teams itching to pull off another upset (and the team they beat): PSU-Harrisburg (#21 Salisbury), Wesley (#2 VWC), Mary Washington (#18 VWC), York (Stevenson), and St. Mary’s (Salisbury) in the next five games.

12 – Marietta (Down 4)
A second loss, needing room for undefeated teams behind them in the previous poll, and one of the losses being to John Carroll is why the Pioneers fell four spots on my poll. Normally a loss to a team I had previously ranked behind them and now rank ahead of them wouldn’t have resulted in four spots, but it did this time. Marietta is still a very dangerous team and after watching St. Vincent in person at the D3hoops.com Classic last week, I can better appreciate why Marietta lost that game. But like John Carroll, they re-enter OAC play with a large target (being regular season champs last season) and have some interesting challenges ahead in Ohio Northern, Capital, and Otterbein before seeing Mount Union for the first time this season.

13 – Chicago^ (Unchanged)
I think the Maroons are starting to click as a team, though I am sure others would disagree. Chicago has been a little streaky this season, but the two losses in the first three games of the season are well behind them and they are starting to take control of games including a 74-57 win over Illinois Wesleyan. We finally get to see the UAA start conference play and that always starts with Wash U for Chicago. This time it’s in St. Louis before then traveling to Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve. Nothing is easy in the UAA, but Chicago has a chance to take control of the conference early if they stay focused.

14 –Mount Union (Down 4)
Just saying that I have three OAC teams in my Top 15 is a little surreal, but I like the Purple Raiders this season and not selling easily. Each of their losses look good in some capacity: William Paterson (despite internal problems seem to be recovering), North Central (as mentioned before are now off and running), and Colby (who is off to a quiet 9-1 start). And while good losses are fine and dandy, you need to get some good wins as well and the Mount has those in Chicago, Capital, and Ohio Northern. Their re-entry to OAC action is a little easier than the other three: Heidelberg, Wilmington, and Muskingum. But, after that they have John Carroll and Marietta back-to-back in mid-January – a perfect “mid-season” litmus test for the Purple Raiders.

15 – Brooklyn (Unchanged)
Not much to say here for the Bulldogs. They only played one game over the holidays and beat a very good in-conference opponent in Staten Island. I look forward to seeing them work through the rest of the conference schedule before I make a reevaluation of Brooklyn.

16 – Stockton^ (Unchanged)
Depending on who you ask, Stockton is either really good or overrated. I can get different opinions from just about everyone I talk to or ask. I don’t know if Stockton is as good as advertised or not. I know I lose favor in them last year at this point after seeing them in person. I will luckily get a chance to see how things are going since they play league-leading New Jersey City and vastly-improved over the break Ramapo in their next two games.

17 – Oswego State (Unchanged)
In a strange scheduling occurrence… the Lakers didn’t play a single game in the three weeks between Top 25 votes. So, not much I can add now. They are in a very difficult SUNYAC from what the start of the season indicates. I will be interested to see how Oswego recovers from the long lay-off and reenters conference action.

18 – WPI^ (Unranked)
I finally decided to buy in with the Engineers this week. Why now? Because they still haven’t lost. Ok, they lost once to Fitchburg State. Say what?! Well, to be honest there are a lot of teams who have lost a game that makes no sense. WPI has actually beaten some good teams this season and in a year where everyone is beating everyone, it seems, the Engineers only have one blemish. Can’t say I saw that coming. So… I’m on board now.

19 – Trine (Unranked)
The MIAA might have the most interesting race in the country this year. At the beginning of the season in my conversation with Hope head coach Greg Mitchell on Hoopsville, he talked about how Alma was a team to watch out for along with obviously Calvin. We also talked about Trine. We also talked about Trine. The Thunder are off to a 10-1 mark with that one blemish coming to Ohio Wesleyan. They have beaten some good teams along the way as well. Trine has made the MIAA a four-team race and that’s not too bad for that conference. Big game coming up against an underrated Calvin squad (by their standards), but no matter the outcome I am looking forward to watching this race.

20 – Texas Lutheran (Unchanged)
It was a mixed bag of a holiday time frame for the Bulldogs. They ended up going 3-2, but against some pretty good teams. Loss to IWU, beat Alma, lost to Texas-Tyler, and then beat East Texas Baptist (again) and Southwestern. I wasn’t sure what to do with Texas Lutheran until I remember some of the conversations I have had with coaches out of Texas and read comments of those who have seen TLU in action. I am willing to keep TLU where they are here at 20th and see what happens next. The Bulldogs have a big weekend looming with hot-starting Austin in the second game of two. Going to keep a close eye on that one.

21 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Up 2)
Not much to add here for right now. The Eagles won five straight during the holiday poll break after losing to a good Bethel squad. There wasn’t any world-beating teams on the list, but it showed they can shake off a tough loss. Their win over UW-Stout was something I can better appreciate after seeing the Blue Devils in action in Las Vegas (good, solid team; no where close to what their 0-16 WIAC record last season indicated). Then the Eagles lost to North Central on Saturday. Not what I was expecting and I probably gave them a little too much credit by moving them up two spots (more on that … shortly). However before that loss, Northwestern wrapped up a two-loss 2015 year. That’s pretty darn impressive.

22 – Bethel (Unranked)
The MIAC is just ridiculous these days. Bethel is certainly one of those reasons. The Royals are 8-1 with a pretty good out-of-conference schedule and an SOS that was higher than I expected. Their one loss: St. John’s. And that is what reveals the challenge of this poll especially this year and most particularly in this part of the poll. I could have easily put the 9-1 Johnnies in this spot instead of Bethel especially with their win over the Royals as an example. I also could have easily put Bethel ahead of Northwestern also thanks to the Royals win over the Eagles. But the Johnnies have a couple of non-Division III games that make it hard to appreciate those wins, they also have a loss to Carleton who beat St. John’s and St. Thomas in back-to-back games. So, I don’t think the Johnnies should be ranked ahead of Bethel and they were left out for now. But here is a conference (MIAC) that St. Thomas has won ten straight times, but we are talking about three teams who probably deserve to be in the Top 25. By the way, I am not sure why I left Bethel behind Northwestern – that one might have slipped past me.

23 – Scranton^ (Unranked)
There are some Royals fans in the Poconos who might have just spit-taked their coffee. I have been a bit critical of Scranton, and the Landmark Conference, for a few years now. It doesn’t help that I know the conference very, very well and thus I see the teams a lot and all season. I just haven’t been buying into Scranton in recent years as they yo-yoed in and out of my ballot. Too many times I find inconsistencies and it frustrates me for a program I think could be so much better. This year, Susquehanna and Catholic were predicted to be better. Susquehanna has been; Catholic has not (the defense seems to be getting worse). Out of that has come the Royals. For most of the season, Scranton hasn’t had any significant wins until they beat Christopher Newport. That gave me a good reason to dive into the team. I still don’t see anything that blows me away outside of the win over CNU. However, their SOS was better than expected, they do have some good wins, and they haven’t taken the losses I have gotten used to that don’t make any sense (though, they did lose to Hobart). I will see the Royals later this week… so let’s see if this ranking holds.

24 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)
The Green Knights have been dominating teams once again this season. They would have moved up the poll, but they lost to Alma right at before voting and that gave me pause. It isn’t that Alma isn’t a good team; they are. I was just surprised coming off of an easy win over Anderson the night before AND it was at home. Now let’s see how St. Norbert does re-entering conference action.

25 – Pacific Lutheran* (Unranked)
I didn’t know what to expect when I got to Las Vegas knowing I was going to see the Lutes. Actually, I am pretty sure I was going to be disappointed. I was going to see a team who clearly is overrated beating some easy non-Division III opponents. That’s not what I saw. Pacific Lutheran has a lot of size inside, good talent on the outside, and they don’t quit. This is a team that barely lost to Chicago earlier this season, handled a fired-up UMHB squad, and then held off a very tough squad in UW-Stout to prepare for (five-man substitution patterns that don’t hold at any point in a half). I was impressed. With two players scoring 18 points per game and a third in double-digits, there are plenty of dangerous weapons to help put the Northwest Conference on it’s head. Whitman is going to have a say eventually in this battle to play Whitworth for the title as well.

Dropped Out:

Babson^ (Previously 10)
I just can’t stay on board with a team that lost the only game it played in three weeks and has won just 60-percent of the games they have played. I know the Beavers lost a bit from last year’s final four, but they had a lot of good talent coming back and got other help especially in the transfer system. It resulted in a 5-0 start to the season, but since then the team has lost four of their last five. Yes, they are playing good… very good teams, but if you are deserving of being a Top 25 team you have do more than play those teams, you have to beat most of those teams. In reality, Babson is 1-4 in the tougher half of it’s schedule. That doesn’t deserve to be ranked even if they had been 10th previously.

Salisbury* (Previously 18)
After a terrific start at 5-0 including two big wins at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic, the Sea Gulls are 3-3 in the last six. Ouch. Salisbury would have stayed in the Top 25 if they hadn’t lost to St. Mary’s. Yeah, the Seahawks. The squad that for years dominated the Mid-Atlantic Region and got to Salem in the Elite Eight in 2013 after years of knocking on the door. This seasons St. Mary’s team isn’t bad, but if Salisbury is a Top 25 squad they should beat SMC … especially when it’s on their own home court! Salisbury is going to be dangerous especially if they get into the tournament, but they need to shake off their funk and get back on track.

Virginia Wesleyan^ (Previously 19)
I never thought I would not have a single ODAC team ranked in my Top 25 in this day in age, but here we are. The Marlins are 7-4 after losing two in a row in the middle of Decemeber. It doesn’t seem like the usual reloading of talent as gone as smoothly for Dave Macedo’s squad this season. I can’t put my finger on it, but the Marlins just aren’t consistent this season. They may still make the NCAA tournament because they are at the top of a somewhat-down ODAC this season, but I think expectations of another good season because of the ability for them to have talent-in-waiting on the bench is probably unjustified this season.

East Texas Baptist (Previously 21)
The Tigers drop out because they have lost two in a row. According to my last ballot, losing to TLU was expected. Then they lost to Concordia (Texas) – guh. The Tigers are still a good squad, but with so many teams worthy of being in the Top 25 conversation, losing two in a row when ranked that low on the ballot just gives me an easy excuse to replace them. I am interested to see how ETBU recovers and heads into conference action.

Wooster (Previously 25)
This was probably one ballot too late, but I am now done with the Scots. This is clearly not their season, by their normal standards. That isn’t to say Wooster still isn’t very good. They just aren’t Top 25 good right now. The loss to Salisbury was just the excuse I needed to finally convince myself to pull the trigger. Wooster is still going to be very much involved in the very interesting NCAC race and may make the NCAA tournament, but I just don’t think they are one of the 25 best in the country like they usually are. Just an off year.

* – Teams I have seen in person this season
^ – Teams I have seen in person in the last year

Something of note: I think I have turned over half of my ballot in the last two or three polls and probably two-thirds of it so far this season. It is hard to really figure out who are the best in the country when so many schools can beat so many this season.

So, I guess I am looking for more wins. That would be nice for another reason – I won’t feel like I have to write as much in each blog.

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Preseason 2016

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Tis the season. Practices have started, games are a mere weeks away, and the first men’s Top 25 ballot has been cast. The excitement to start the season is certainly amping up and after looking through the teams I considered for my ballot… I am expecting one thing – a wide open season.

Last year one of my most common statements was how much parity there was in Division III, especially when you got outside of the Top 10. This year may see that parity go even further. There are so many good teams that have reloaded, great teams that have lost key personnel, championship favorites who are rebuilding or retooling, and championship favorites who haven’t had to reload – they are already loaded.

There are also teams who are emerging on the radar thanks to putting together several years of consistently better basketball. Their experienced players are juniors or seniors who are poised to make a run. Then there are the usual suspects who have gone through coaching changes or lost a high number of those experienced players after making their run. All of those kinds of teams create a high number of question marks.

Parity is great for Division III basketball. It allows more teams to be in the conversation, it makes the regular season fascinating in terms of match-ups, important games, and outcomes that in mid-November mean something in late February. Thanks to the SOS guidelines and the message that teams have to schedule good teams to make sure they can secure an at-large bid (or hosting opportunity) in the tournament along with the parity, the regular season is exciting.

However selfishly… parity is a pain in the ass for Top 25 voters!

Every year the preseason ballot is the most difficult. Obviously, trying to read tea leaves and understand how returning players, transfers or freshmen, and departing players will impact a team is difficult. Then throw in other variables like coaching changes or the quality of coaching coupled with trends we have seen over the years makes things more challenging. But now that parity has made Division III basketball basically a wide open race, Top 25 voters are left grasping at straws, throwing darts, picking names out of a hat, or whatever random method they want to use to try and pick and place teams.

This year’s preseason ballot was by far the hardest just a year after I thought that preseason ballot was the hardest. I knew who I was going to vote number one practically from the time I walked out of the Salem Civic Center last March – though, I gave myself the flexability to look through everything and everyone first before finalizing that decision. But after nearly an entire day (say six hours?) working on my ballot earlier this week… I had only put in the number one team. The rest of my ballot was blank.

The arguments were endless circles.

  • Do I think Team A is better than Team B? Yes.
  • Do I think Team B is better than Team C? Yes.
  • Do I think Team C is better than Team A? Yes. Damn it.
  • I think Team A should be number five on my ballot. But there are no other teams I think should be above them. The problem is Team A is not a number two team, I don’t think. Well what about Team B? No. Same problem. Team C? Nope. Team D? Heck no. Well, someone has to be number two!
  • How about numbers 20-25… I only have 15 teams to consider here… nope, make it 20. Well, who deserves to be there? No one; all of them. Darn it. Well I have to rank Team M, they are always a Top 25 team. Do they deserve to be in the poll? Um, maybe not?! What about taking a flyier on Team N? Sure, why not? Wait, but why? This isn’t helping.

The inner monologue, that spilled into out loud conversation with myself might have been hysterical – or sad – to listen to for someone on the outside of my head. I talked to a few other Top 25 voters I enjoy chatting with – picking their brain – they were all thinking completely different than I was. One had a team at number two I wasn’t considering higher than 15! That had me do an about face and erase everything and start over only to then realize after doing that a few times that I couldn’t justify that high a jump even though my colleague’s justification made sense especially to him.

Finally, I just decided to buckle up and start plugging away. I was going to leave teams off I didn’t feel comfortable. I was going to include teams I certainly feel are risky. I was also going to put teams too high, too low, or just plainly in the wrong slot. There was nothing I could do about it; my ballot was going to be far from perfect.

Then when I saw the final results and the expanded voting information I chuckled. I wasn’t the only one. EVERYONE struggled with this ballot.

So here is my D3hoops.com Men’s Top 25 Preseason ballot – completely while watching my beloved Cubbies implode (or never lite the fuse) against the Mets. Please understand that I wrote everything about my struggle prior to point out that I am not completely comfortable with my ballot. I am sure that while writing these teams out, I will find ways to argue with what I have done already. So yes, I may have some teams too high and some teams too low. I probably included a team that shouldn’t be there and left another out that is a no-brainer to you. It is what it is now that parity is the only way to describe Division III men’s basketball.

1 – Augustana
I am a little surprised this wasn’t a unanimous decision by the 25 voters (two going with Amherst – more on that later). Anyone who saw Augustana last year, saw them get to the national championship game, and knew they were pretty much bringing back the entire squad probably had Augustana penciled in to the number one slot on their preseason poll the day after last season ended. Augustana isn’t going to get through the season unscathed. The CCIW will be too difficult, but this is now a very experienced team with a deep NCAA tournament run under their belt. They know what needs to get done to bring a national title to the Mississippi River. The only thing that will stop them is themselves.

2 – Elmhurst
Nothing about the following 24 teams is rock solid. I am not positive anyone is in the right position and it start with the Blue Jays. Here is another team that returns nearly everyone after a really good season. Many would say Elmhurst appeared on the radar a year early last season. The advantage that has is this team now has plenty of experience to make them ready for the year. The disadvantage is they are not going to surprise anyone and have a bit of a target on their backs. I thought Elmhurst was maybe number five… but I just couldn’t wrap my head around another team being head of them. When I was able to make that argument, another team would debunk it (see my Team A, Team B, Team C debate above). However, Elmhurst is poised to have a terrific season, but like Augustana just playing in the CCIW could be their downfall.

3 – Chicago
I realize I might be buying too much stock in the Maroons. I suspect Mike McGrath will be calling or texting me soon after reading this to either laugh at me or give me all the reasons his team isn’t that good. I get it. I had them in my Top 25 last year in the preseason and thought despite the drawbacks (and injuries) that they were that good. They struggled. But they struggled because honestly this is the season they probably will be the best of the UAA. Number three is high, but like Elmhurst I couldn’t find a reason to keep them lower. I think Chicago will be the clear favorite in a somewhat down – certainly reshuffling – UAA and after dealing with the challenges of last year will be in position to impress this season.

4 – Whitworth
I might be buying too much stock here as well. Despite being more guard orientated than in years past, I think the Pirates could be a really good team this season. They don’t exactly have a challenging start to the season (La Verne, CalTech, and Hamline are part of their Division III non-conference start), but the start could give them a ton of confidence before the middle part of their season when they see Calvin and Mary Hardin-Baylor at the D3hoops.com Classic in Las Vegas. They do play Colorado College twice (why? No, WHY?!) which tripped them up a few seasons ago, but I don’t see a reason why Whitworth won’t win another conference title and maybe make the run to Salem everyone has been waiting for the last decade.

5 – Amherst
Two voters placed the Lord Jeffs #1. Honestly, I don’t get that. Of course they are going to be good. Last year was an odd year of reloading after a tremendous 2012-13 campaign lead to a national championship in Atlanta and a 2013-14 campaign ended in heartbreak in a dismantling at the hands of Williams in the semifinals. They had some great talent on those teams including Aaron Toomey. They didn’t have that talent, experience, or confidence last year and struggled accordingly. But they still finished second in the conference and made the NCAA tournament. The reason I could NOT vote Amherst number one was simple – they weren’t even on my Top 25 ballot finishing last season (they only got 8 points in the overall poll). They bring everyone back and will be good – because Dave Hixon always puts together good teams – but number five on my ballot feels high, so I’m not sure how anyone voted them #1. That being said, Amherst has proven sceptics wrong many times in the past.

6 – Catholic
The Cardinals have been planning this season for about four years. Last year wasn’t as successful as hoped thanks to injuries and other factors and that is the only reason I am a little apprehensive with this position for Catholic. Steve Howes has a group of athletes who have basically been playing tons of minutes since they were freshmen and made what should have been a deep run in the NCAA tournament in 2013 (before a rough scheduling gave them Williams in the second round and a key injury ruined their chances of winning that game). Last year and prior the team hasn’t lived up to the expectations. There certainly is good reason to think they won’t this year, either. The difference is I think the players themselves have the ability to get over the hump and get through adversity thanks to what they have had to deal with the last two years. The conference is ripe to be taken (Scranton will be down and the rest of the conference has had a ton of turnover) and they have some easy games early in the season to get them rolling.

7 – Mount Union
The Purple Raiders are ready to steal headlines from the football team in November and December… or at least try. I think Mount Union is ready to capitalize on what was a terrific campaign last season and make the OAC a rather interesting conference to watch this year. They have the experience in place, like a lot of teams, to make this season special. Again, they feel too high despite their recent success and current talent, but parity has allowed teams like Mount Union shine when we haven’t seen them in the past.

8 – St. Thomas
The Tommies are the Tommies. Meaning they will compete every year, probably win another conference title, and be a fascinating team to consider in the NCAA tournament. Last year ended with a thud in the first round and sometimes that is the perfect motiviation for a team that maybe expected to always make a deep run. The challenge is the MIAC is not longer a cake walk – which they experienced last season – but that could end up making the Tommies a much more dangerous team. They also start the season at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic along with games against UW-Stevens Point and others that tells me they are ready to test themselves early to be ready for March. The Tommies may be a slight dark horse this year.

9 – Marietta
The only reason I don’t have the Pioneers higher is I am worried about some of the talent they lost and I learned RaNeal Ewing is at least ineligible for the first semester – if he even is available at all this season. Ewing was Marietta’s best player, so consider that another loss – at least temporarily – for a really good team. Marietta will still be a tough team and will be in the national conversation all year. However, they may have a slight challenge to the start of the season with Ewing not on the court let alone the bench. The advantage Marietta has is they have a bit of an easy schedule to start before getting into conference play where John Carroll and Mount Union will make the OAC race one to watch. They also have a possible match-up with Wooster which will give everyone a terrific mid-season barometer of the Great Lakes Region.

10 – Babson
As good as Babson was last year, as terrific a run to Salem as they made, the trick this season will be how do they adjust to losing some key parts from last season and how does Joey Flannery adjust to a massive target on him with maybe less complementing parts to help him out. Flannery is a terrific talent and thanks to the fact the schedule this year is not that challenging nor is the NEWMAC as difficult as in years past (MIT, WPI, and Springfield will all be a bit down from their recent glory), the Beavers could go on a tremendous tear to start the season before facing Amherst in mid-December. That game has been highlighted at least by many as being the litmus test for both programs. Bates will then take three weeks off before facing another Northeast power in Bates. Those two games will give us plenty of information before Babson starts conference play in January.

11 – Virginia Wesleyan
The Marlins are an enigma as much as they are one of the most consistent teams in Division III. Every time Dave Macedo loses tremendous talent it is replaced with nearly as equal the talent either off the bench or fresh to the team. It is unbelievable the program that has been built near the shores of the Cheseapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean. The challenge this year, probably a far more guard orientated team than in the past (though, a program that has transitioned in that direction in the last few years). Will that leave them exposed in the ODAC which has usually featured a few big men that can change game plans? Will that leave them exposed in the NCAA tournament? It was great to see the Marlins back in Salem (or any ODAC team for that matter) last year. The question I have: is there talent hiding on the bench as there has been in the past that can help them get back there again. I just don’t see it right now.

12 – Stockton
Maybe I am buying in a little too much in the Ospreys, but something tells me last year’s good season won’t be disappearing any time soon. They did lose the NJAC Player of the Year, but they bring back talent that scored in double-figures. The challenge for Stockton is to stay consistent and not let things get to them. I witnessed the inconsistency and lack of mental stability last year first hand in the middle of the season which seemed to derail them for a few weeks. If they want people to fear them and the rest of the NJAC, they have got to take care of business both in and out of the conference or any love for Stockton will erode quickly.

13 – Ohio Wesleyan
The Battling Bishops had some struggles last year, but seemed to find their mojo at just the right time during conference play and seemed to have the NCAC in control – until the NCAC got really interesting late. What is scary is that Ohio Wesleyan pretty much brings back the entire squad (91% of the scoring) including conference scoring leader Claude Gray. The only reason I didn’t put the Battling Bishops any higher was the concern about consistent basketball. They need to play well against what will be a tough out of conference schedule before starting an always challenging NCAC schedule. If Ohio Wesleyan plays well against the likes of Capital, Calvin, and Illinois Wesleyan before facing Wooster in early Decemeber, they could get on a roll that will have them being one of the scarier teams this season.

14 – William Paterson
To be honest, I would love to see the Pioneers do well this season. After a few inconsistent seasons, William Paterson seems to have gotten back into the conversation and helped bring the NJAC back as one of the tougher conferences. But inconsistencies have been their arch nemesis. Losses against teams they should be dominating and apparent lack of focus in conference play (losing four out of five to close conference play last season was poor – they lost five of their last seven overall) kills any thoughts of jumping on the bandwagon. Their schedule this year starts with a big game against Mount Union, otherwise nothing about their out of conference schedule will give us any indication of how good they may really be.

15 – Emory
Despite what the Eagles have lost, something tells me this program isn’t going away. The have consistently won 19 or more games the last five seasons and Jason Zimmerman seems to get the most out of his players. They also don’t shy away from a challenge as they will take on St. Thomas and Stevenson at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic before facing off against Guilford, Oglethorpe, Maryville, and Virginia Wesleyan to name a few before conference play begins. I know they lost some terrific talent, but Emory seems to find new talent more often and once again could be a factor come NCAA tournament time.

16 – Hope
The Flying Dutchmen may finally be back as a team to watch out for. They return nearly the entire squad and nearly all their points and rebounds to a team that despite some tough points last season, battled to the very end under new head coach Greg Mitchell. Now he is more settled and I know working to improve his squad and who they play (especially getting rid of some non-Division III opponents) and could be worth watching this year. Opponents like UW-Stevens Point, Wheaton (Ill.), Carthage, UW-Platteville, and Messiah will have them ready for conference play to be sure.

17 – St. John Fisher
Here’s another team that has lost a bit of talent off a very good team from last year, but speculation is they will once again be the cream of the crop in the Empire 8. They too will test themselves early at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic along with a possible match-up with Ohio Wesleyan on the road. To be honest, I don’t expect the conference or the region to be overly challenging (though the E8 always produces a surprise team that you have to be concerned about), so the Cardinals have to prove themselves out of conference and they certainly have the schedule to do that. Some early success could bode well for some personal in new or larger roles.

18 – Dickinson
The Red Devils are very much like the St. John Fisher Cardinals in how much they have lost versus how much they still have that no one realizes along with what has been rumored as being a strong recruiting class that could make an immediate impact. Sure, the D3hoops.com Player of the Year is gone, but anyone who knows the Dickinson team will tell you that Gerry Wixted wasn’t the only threat. Remember, this Red Devils squad lost Adam Honig the year before after getting to the elite eight. They nearly repeated that feat last season. Dickinson is also not shying away from a test in the non-conference part of the schedule with St. John Fisher and Stevenson at the Hoopsville Classic followed by Catholic and Guilford later in the season. The question will be how will they do against Franklin and Marshall, Johns Hopkins, McDaniel and others in conference.

19 – East Texas Baptist
I realize I am one of 12 voters – half the poll – who voted for the Tigers. It’s at this point in the poll where I really started to struggle about who should be in and out of my Top 25. One part of me sees a lot of talent coming back to a squad that certainly impressed last season (and was the first omen of things to come at the final four with teams facing UW-Stevens Point). Another part of me worries they may have lost a little too much. They have a 22-game home winning streak still intact and with eight of their first 11 games being at home could use that as momentum to get the season rolling in the right direction. The Tigers aren’t exactly going to play anyone challenging except Hardin-Simmons early on, so that could help them as well. But I suspect conference play will be a bit tough because of teams like Hardin-Simmons, Mary Hardin-Baylor, and Louisiana College.

20 – Eastern Connecticut
The talk I’ve been hearing in the coaching ranks is the Warriors have a really good team this year. I’m a little nervous to jump on board considering how many 20+ win seasons Eastern Connecticut has had in the last seven years (seven to be exact), but nothing that jumps out of me in the NCAA tournament – seemingly going backwards (three third round appearances [’10, ’11, ’12], two second round appearances [’13, ’14], and a first round appearance [‘15]). What is really interesting with the Tigers this year is they start the season with three straight tournaments on the first three weekends of the season – all of them on the road. They then play a fourth tournament on the road right before Christmas. Those tournaments will include games against WPI and possibly Ramapo along with Trinity (Conn.) and Amherst mixed in. They will certainly have plenty of back-to-back experience should they make the NCAA tournament.

21 – Bates
I could have gone with Trinity (Conn.) here as well (I realize the Bantams are 12th overall, but I didn’t vote for them) and probably should have in hindsight. Something about how Bates was built last year gave me confidence. I know they return less of their scoring than Trinity does, but I like the fact Mike Boornazian, Marcus Delpeche, and Malcolm Delpeche are part of that trio returning. They all contributed solid points and having an actual center makes a big difference in Division III. It came down to a coin flip between the two squads and I went with Bates.

22 – Hardin-Simmons
I think the Cowboys are going to be dangerous and will make the ASC a heck of a fight all the way through February. Now, because of their conference schedule and the inability to get out of Texas this season (we have talked to them about coming to the Hoopsville Classic) they aren’t able to really test themselves. Trinity (Texas), Southwestern (twice), Schreiner, and Texas Lutheran are their out of conference games, so I will be both studying those results in a finer degree of latitude along with keeping an early eye on their conference games. Another interesting note about their schedule – not one weekend tournament. Those events tend to be pretty helpful to have under your belt come March.

23 – Wooster
I’m going to be blunt… it’s time for the Scots to stop being just the winningest team in Division III this century and live up to expectations that the title partly instills. Wooster once again loses good talent from a program that once again fell short last season. I don’t know the last time they didn’t win 20+ games, but last season the conference gave them fits and they eventually lost to streaking DePauw in the NCAC title game and fell short to Marietta in the NCAA Round of 16. I just feel Wooster is always in the Top 25 and rises steadily in the polls through the early part of the season only to lose a couple of games or not make waves in the NCAA tournament on a consistent basis. This year has an interesting bag of games against teams who in the past have been good, but will either be down this year or are emerging with unknown expectations. They also have a conference that is quite competitive and once again may not go through Wooster’s home gym.

24 – UW-Stevens Point
Last year I didn’t have the Pointers in my Top 25 for about two-thirds of the season. They didn’t start off with guns blazing, but they eventually got into a groove and what they were doing defensively was impressive. I didn’t buy in until late January, if memory serves. They had lost quite a few of their talent from the year before and I didn’t expect them to do much in 2014-15 – they of course won the national championship with one of the best defensive units and performances I have ever seen at this level. Lesson learned. Despite the fact Stevens Point has lost a TON from last year’s squad… I will at least give them and Bob Semling the benefit of the doubt and leave them on my ballot. They have a challenging schedule this year, so we will learn early if they remain.

25 – Southern Vermont
This is the latest Albertus Magnus squad from New England. Tons of talent, gaudy record, but very weak conference means they are playing on a knife’s edge at the end of the season. The difference in the past is that AMC has made sure to win the conference tournament to assure themselves a berth to the NCAA tournament. Southern Vermont had a terrific opportunity last year to prove naysayers wrong, but lost in the conference title game and didn’t even sniff the NCAA tournament. Now they return everyone and are challenging themselves with an appearance at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic which will feature St. Thomas as one of their games. They also have Bates and Middlebury and some other good games on their schedule (along with some easier games like two against Massachusetts College) before starting conference play. If the Mountaineers want to be talked about nationally, Dan Engelstad knows this is the season to do it.

Now, I could go on and list all the other teams I considered. The list could range as high as 25 additional teams. However, I have learned in the past that a) people don’t appreciate the added information, they think of it as a further snub to their team and b) that I always end up leaving out other worthy programs I could mention as well. So to save myself the headache of writing them all down now and the headache from responding to complaints later… here is where we will start.

I will finish on this note. There are a TON of good teams this year who deserve to at least be considered for the Top 25. Almost everyone in the Top 25 and being considered have flaws. The hard part is going to figure out who has the least amount of flaws, are challenging themselves or at least playing better than expected, and who are just throwing up smoke and mirrors.

It promises to be another very exciting year in Division III men’s basketball. Which means it also promises to be long Mondays for Top 25 voters.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 12

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This week the top half of the ballot was pretty simple, the bottom half… yeah… well… here we go again.

It is just difficult to really figure out who the best 25 teams are in the country this season. If I don’t have 40 teams I am considering, I am not spending enough time on the project each week. In other words, the more time I spend, the more teams I add to the list. Sure, it would be easy to save myself the time and the patience and just go with a short number of teams. However, this season I have had the bad feeling that I am missing out on someone or there is a team flying under the radar I just haven’t paid enough attention to. As a result, I keep looking around and finding others I want to at least consider – dive into their numbers and season and see what I find. Usually that leads me to teams like Penn State-Behrend, Southern Vermont, or others who have gaudy records, low SOS numbers, below-average conferences, and interesting out-of-conference results. Sometimes I wait these teams out a little longer; other times I go with my gut and add them. In all cases, I am waiting for my gut to be wrong (maybe I am a pessimist at this whole thing – especially this year).

This week, I certainly had 40 teams – leaving myself 25 teams to slot into the final ten spots. I decided to cut bait on some teams that are just not finishing the season well while waiting a couple others out. I left some teams out that probably deserve to be in; I left some on the ballot that probably need to go. It is a lose-lose scenario sometimes.

One thing I know for sure… in a week’s time… I suspect I will be throwing my entire ballot out and starting over. Does anyone really think the majority of the Top 25 is going to get through conference tournaments unscathed?

As always before we begin, here is a look at last week’s ballot:

1 – Randolph-Macon
2 – UW-Whitewater
3 – Babson
4 – St. Thomas
5 – Augustana
6 – St. Norbert
7 – WPI
8 – UW-Stevens Point
9 – Virginia Wesleyan
10 – Dickinson
11 – Marietta
12 – Albertus Magnus
13 – St. John Fisher
14 – Emory
15 – Johns Hopkins
16 – Ohio Wesleyan
17 – Elmhurst
18 – Chapman
19 – Whitworth
20 – Catholic
21 – Wooster
22 – New York Univ.
23 – St. Olaf
24 – Washington Univ.
25 – Penn State-Behrend

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – Randolph-Macon* (Unchanged)
First undefeated ODAC season in program history and the first ODAC team to accomplish the feat since 2001 (Hampden-Sydney)… impressive! Now they have to get through the ODAC tournament at the Salem Civic Center. A gauntlet that has tripped up many a top-seed… including the Yellow Jackets just last year.

2 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

3 – Babson (Unchanged)

4 – Augustana (Up 1)

5 – St. Thomas (Down 1)
I thought about moving the Tommies down even further than just one spot, but I just can’t move them below some teams right now. I am worried about consistency from St. Thomas. You can’t go and blow the socks off a team like St. Olaf on the road and then roll over against Bethel at home if you are really that good this year and want to make a decent run in the NCAA tournament. The advantage UST has is they will probably be on the road at least to start the NCAA tourney (women get rights to host first weekend), but that loss could have also cost St. Thomas a hosting chance at hosting the second weekend.

6 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)
Another undefeated season in the MWC. Wow. This is a really good team, it appears. But they are really going to have to prove themselves in the NCAA tournament because I just don’t see a way for them to avoid a major Central Region team in the first weekend.

7 – WPI* (Unchanged)

8 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)

9 – Virginia Wesleyan (Unchanged)
If there is one thing I will say about the Marlins… who have they really beaten? They finished second in the ODAC and got beat by Randolph-Macon in some very good games, but I am starting to get nervous that Virginia Wesleyan doesn’t have a signature win this season. Are the Marlins overrated? Just stuff I ponder, but sure I believe just yet.

10 – Marietta (Up 1)

11 – Albertus Magnus (Up 1)
Despite a really close call to Emmanuel (buzzer beater to force overtime and then win going away), I just don’t have anywhere else to put other teams. Those now below AMC didn’t seem to deserve being ahead of the Falcons. I really hope AMC doesn’t trip in the conference tournament risking the chance to make the NCAA tournament, because I think the Falcons could be dangerous. I just don’t know what kind of match-ups are in store for AMC.

12 – Dickinson (Down 3)
The Red Devils are worrying me. They aren’t finishing the season strong. I still think they make the NCAA tournament even if they lose in the semifinals against Franklin & Marshall* on Friday, but the way Dickinson lost to F&M on Saturday is a little concerning. That’s three losses in the last five games with a win over Johns Hopkins in the middle. I probably should have moved Dickinson down a little more. Here’s hoping the talented senior class decides this is not how their careers is going to end – stumbling to the finish.

13 – Emory (Up 1)

14 – Johns Hopkins* (Up 1)
I debated about flipping the Blue Jays and Dickinson, but decided the recent win by Dickinson was good enough to not make that move. However, Johns Hopkins may very well be the better team of the two. The blue-collar, bring a lunch pail to work mentality to this team doesn’t overwhelm you when you watch them, but they get the job done. Hopkins is one of those dark horses who might surprise in a few weeks.

15 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 1)

16 – Whitworth (Up 3)

17 – St. John Fisher (Down 4)
Not the time of the year to start losing! The Cardinals lost to Alfred and Stevens in the last three games – all in the past week – but luckily had such a commanding lead in the Empire 8 it didn’t cost them. However, it might be hard to get the right match-ups in the NCAA tournament now and if St. John Fisher loses again they might be out as a host the first weekend! Talk about all that hard work being for nothing. Hopefully SJF takes flight again and finds their mojo!

18 – Wooster (Up 3)

19 – Washington Univ.* (Up 5)
Ok… good weekend for the Bears. Beat Brandeis and New York Univ.* to make up for the lousy trip to New York City last month. Despite a crazy season, Washington Univ. is positioned to win the UAA title and get the automatic bid to the tournament. They just have to get past Chicago* which handed them one of their worst losses of the season. The one thing going for Wash U – Chicago has to go to St. Louis. It will be a mini-conference title game between the Bears and Maroons with Emory hoping for just the right outcome (along with a win) to take the title from both of them!

20 – St. Mary’s (Md.) (Unranked)
Here’s one of those teams that might have been flying under the radar. I took a long, hard look at the Seahawks this week. They are 20-4 right now (producing their sixth 20-win season in the last seven years), they are on a 12-game winning streak, and they haven’t had a “close” game (less than double-digits) since a five point win over Mary Washington on February 4. They may not have a great SOS (thanks to losing two games and a lousy bottom part of the conference), but they are also markedly improved from the team that lost to Eastern Mennonite and Delaware Valley* to start the season. Could I be buying in a little too much? Maybe. But this team could create some nasty match-up problems in the NCAA tournament. Who knows… maybe the year no one was paying attention to SMC was the perfect year for them.

21 – Catholic* (Down 1)
I can’t say I was surprised Catholic lost to Scranton* on the road. Scranton needed that win badly and playing in the Long Center is anything but easy. It did bring to the end a 15 game winning streak. The Landmark Conference tournament still goes through Washington, DC and hopefully CUA realizes that loss is the perfect jolt to their season.

22 – Southern Vermont (Unranked)
Hmm… could the Mountaineers be one of the most underrated teams in the Northeast? Ok, I might be going a little too far, but considering Southern Vermont hasn’t lost since a close game against Bates on January 3 and has gone undefeated in a conference they hadn’t won more than 10 games in … ever … SVC may be a team to watch. They once again started the season with a win over Williams, but hard to read them with a ho-hum out-of-conference schedule. But as I have said in the past, I look at win streaks this time of year with a little extra credit… 15-straight for the Mountaineers means they haven’t beaten themselves just yet.

23 – Penn State-Behrend (Up 2)

24 – St. Olaf (Down 1)
I am tried not to jump to too many conclusions with the Oles lost to St. Thomas. Yes, it was on their home court and, yes, it wasn’t close. Those are all big concerns for me. However, St. Olaf is 21-4 and that is a significant mark for this squad. Maybe I should be cutting bait like I did last time, however I also regretted that move a week later. Let’s see how St. Olaf does in the MIAC tournament.

25 – Elmhurst (Down 8)
They played one game this week and got blown out on the road at Illinois Wesleyan. I know the CCIW is tough this season, but at some point you have to stand up and at least be competitive in a game you had a week to prepare for! Those are all the reasons I probably should have dropped the Blue Jays from my ballot. The only reason I didn’t… I just couldn’t argue anyone else ahead of them right now. Or I could, but I wasn’t confident in them either. Rematch with IWU (at Augustana) is coming this week.

Dropped out:

Chapman (Previously 18)
Chapman is struggling to keep it together, it would appear. They have lost four of their last eight in groupings of two-at-a-time and have lost two of those games to 9-15 Redlands and Pomona-Pitzer. I know the SCIAC is “interesting” this season, but Chapman might be running out of gas at the wrong time in the season. And watch out… a red-hot Caltech team is coming to town Tuesday night. I just can’t keep riding on the Panthers bandwagon right now.

New York Univ.* (Previously 22)
Guh. Talk about not matching what I have seen in person. The Violets jumped into the national conversation with a pretty darn good weekend at home against Wash U* and Chicago*, but just haven’t been able to keep up the pressure since including losing badly to Wash U (97-75) and Chicago (77-60) on the road this past weekend. I think NYU is a dangerous team if they make the NCAA tournament. The problem is I think they just ended any hope of playing in the NCAAs with this past weekend’s results.

* – teams I have seen in person versus most who I have seen on video.

Previous ballots:
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 10

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Last week’s “easy” week was the exact opposite this week. I erased so many decisions on my pad of paper I practically wore right through the page.

Sufficed to say, this season is crazy. There isn’t a coach I talk with these days who can’t believe what they are seeing with results. There isn’t a Top 25 voter I have chatted with who is sure of half of their ballot. It really is nuts.

This week: the top five didn’t change; five through thirteen went through some readjustments; fourteen on… chaos. Complete upheaval. I spent a couple of hours changing my mind. I thought that by casting a wider net, maybe some teams would jump up and force me to punt other teams. In fact, it only made the decision(s) harder. At one point I seriously had 30 teams I was considering for 12 spots… and I probably could have talked myself into ten more teams!

All and all… I am not satisfied my Top 25 is the best ballot it could be this week. I am too uneasy about a lot of teams, recent outcomes, and those maybe I am discounting for whatever reason. More losses are pretty much guaranteed and I will be back in the same boat each week – so I might as well get comfortable!

As always before we begin, here is a look at last week’s ballot:

1 – St. Thomas
2 – UW-Whitewater
3 – Marietta
4 – Randolph-Macon
5 – Babson
6 – Augustana
7 – Dickinson
8 – St. Norbert
9 – WPI
10 – Virginia Wesleyan
11 – Albertus Magnus
12 – Chapman
13 – St. John Fisher
14 – Emory
15 – Whitworth
16 – Wooster
17 – New York Univ.
18 – Johns Hopkins
19 – Elmhurst
20 – Chicago
21 – Illinois Wesleyan
22 – Washington Univ.
23 – Franklin & Marshall
24 – Ohio Wesleyan
25 – Catholic

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

2 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

3 – Marietta (Unchanged)

4 – Randolph-Macon* (Unchanged)

5 – Babson (Unchanged)

6 – Virginia Wesleyan (Up 4)
At least someone is winning. We all know the Marlins are always going to be a good team. Maybe this is the year the ODAC has two deep threats.

7 – St. Norbert (Up 1)

8 – Augustana (Down 2)
Another loss for the Vikings. The CCIW is clearly one of the toughest conferences in the country this year with even the bottom being a major threat, but Augustana has to stand up and get it done and not keep taking losses. It is already going to be hard to get at-large bids this season, you don’t want the end of the season plagued with losses to dash your hopes. Big game against Illinois Wesleyan this week – looking for the Vikings to exact some revenge on the road for the earlier loss at Rock Island or Augustana drops and IWU jumps up further!

9 – WPI* (Unchanged)
When you lose to a team I have ranked ahead of you anyway, I am not going to drop you down the poll. I expected Babson to win based on my rankings, so WPI stays in the Top 10 as a result.

10 – Dickinson (Down 3)
Ouch! I figured the Red Devils were due for another conference loss with Johns Hopkins and Franklin & Marshall (on the road) still on their schedule, but Ursinus*?! Seriously?! It was a rough Saturday in the Centennial (call is Centennial Conference Carnage), but you can’t afford to drop games against teams you should be beating (theme for this week’s blog). I realize Ursinus is vastly improved over the squad I saw in December (wasn’t pretty), but Dickinson is better than that. And again… JHU and F&M still to play before the conference tournament!

11 – Chapman (Up 1)
Stop a two game slide with a hard-fought win over Claremont-Mudd-Scripps… impressive. I pretty much had resigned the fact Chapman might lose that game because CMS is pretty good and Chapman seemed to be struggling. That win could have saved Chapman’s post-season hopes.

12 – Albertus Magnus (Down 1)

13 – St. John Fisher (Unchanged)

14 – UW-Stevens Point (Unranked)
Every time I thought about adding the Pointers to my Top 25 ballot I reminded myself they have to play Whitewater this week. If the last game is any barometer, the Pointers are going to lose. So how could I justify putting them into my Top 25 if I think they are going to lose this week? Couple of reasons: they are at least winning and Whitewater is so far their only blemish (but, Oshkosh did nearly get them the next game); they have won 11 of their last 12 and starting to take control of games again; they have Stephen Pelkofer back from injury (played 37 minutes against Platteville) and that is a very good sign for the Pointers. Oh… and I am probably one of the only voters who hadn’t had them in my Top 25 by this point.

15 – Johns Hopkins* (Up 3)
Got a big win over Franklin & Marshall* to split the season with the Diplomats and continue a 16 game winning streak (last loss was to F&M back on November 25). That also equates to a two game lead on Dickinson who the Blue Jays have already beaten. This blue-collar team isn’t backing down!

16 – Emory (Down 2)
I watch (on video) the Eagles blow through Rochester on Friday and then once again struggle against NYU* and loss on Sunday. I am pretty sure Emory is glad NYU is in their rear view mirror – but the entire UAA has been this way this season. It is a very difficult conference this season. I can’t ding Emory that much for losing to a really good team (more on NYU in a minute) when I saw them roll over the Yellow Jackets. I also take into account I haven’t talked to one single coach who has seen Emory and not spoken highly of them. Weird year.

17 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 5)
I haven’t been that thrilled with the Titans this season, but they keep getting it done even after tough losses. There were comments that Illinois Wesleyan wasn’t a Top 25 team just a few weeks ago after a couple of losses in the CCIW. What I think we actually saw was the early signs the CCIW as going to be very difficult. Now IWU finds themselves in the conference lead by a game with Augustana coming to town this week. Talk about a statement game. If you thought the win at Rock Island was important? This week is even more important. Potential two-game lead in a very difficult conference and the chance to get the tournament through Bloomfield versus Rock Island… big, big game.

18 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 6)
Yeah… I might be jumping a bit too much here, but the Battling Bishops seemed to have solved the can’t-win-more-than-two-games-in-a-row problem they were having last month. Ohio Wesleyan is free and clear of the NCAC including a season sweep of Wooster. In a year of chaos, Ohio Wesleyan may have found some stability at just the right time of the year.

19 – Whitworth (Down 3)
I thought Whitworth would roll through the rest of the conference schedule. I know Whitman was going to be tough, but to get blown out and not score 50 points?! Didn’t see that coming. Whitworth doesn’t seem to have a great strength of schedule this season, so they have to be careful and win the automatic bid. Losing to Whitman will only fuel hopes from those below that Whitworth is ripe for the taking. Down a couple of spots… because I am worried.

20 – Elmhurst (Down 1)
I tried to move Elmhurst down further, but I just couldn’t justify putting them behind those who are below them. Elmhurst looks like they forgot to stay focused. I know Wheaton is a good team and have mentioned the CCIW is really tough this year, but you don’t beat good teams and then drop one on the road at Wheaton. The road doesn’t get easier. North Park, North Central, and Illinois Wesleyan to wrap up the regular season – tread lightly Blue Jays or you are going to get your wings clipped.

21 – Catholic* (Up 4)
I know Catholic is on a good run right now, but I can’t move them that high up the Top 25. They have a weak SOS, apparently, and they have a looming game against Scranton* this week (if they don’t get trapped by Goucher* mid-week). I will get the chance to see the Cardinals again this week and compare them to the beginning of the season. Then, maybe, I can decide if I am smart to leave them in this range of the Top 25 or if I am low-balling them.

22 – Wooster (Down 8)
Bad time to hit a rut. The Fighting Scots have lost three of their last four and seem to be struggling when we are used to them dominating. They have probably played themselves out of controlling the NCAC tournament and could be in deeper trouble if they don’t right the ship soon. I even debated about dropping Wooster all-together, but I honestly didn’t have anyone whose resume seemed better than Wooster’s right now.

23 – New York Univ.* (Down 8)
The challenge in the UAA is going to be summed up best by the Violets and the next two on my ballot. Beat the tough team, lose to the worse teams, all on the road. Once again New York Univ. beat Emory, but once again NYU couldn’t beat Rochester. The challenge for me: I have seen NYU in person – they are darn good. The problem is I see a loss to Rochester (who has won four in a row and is tied for second with practically everyone else in the conference) and I scratch my head. It may simply come down to match-ups, but NYU has put themselves in a position where they may be too far down the regional rankings in a weak East to earn themselves an at-large bid. If they do get into the tournament, they could be one of the deep sleepers to watch out for.

24 – Washington Univ.* (Down 2)
The only reason the Bears are not out of my Top 25 ballot: they have only lost four games and they do have a very difficult SOS. Once again, Washington Univ. lost a game they shouldn’t have lost (Carnegie Mellon) and once again they beat the tougher opponent and did it handily (Case Western Reserve). There is plenty of inconsistency with the Bears, but they are playing a dangerous game. If they don’t win the UAA automatic bid (regular season title), they could end up being stuck behind a lot of good Central Region teams and get left out of the NCAA Tournament. At some point, WashU has to beat the teams they should be beating to leave themselves some wiggle room.

25 – Chicago* (Down 5)
I could almost write the same thing for WashU here for the Maroons. Believe it or not, Chicago leads the UAA – which is clearly the toughest conference in the country this year – but they once again lost a game that just doesn’t make sense. Maybe the talk the Maroons are actually a year away from being potentially a world beater are correct, but the pre-season coach’s poll also predicted Chicago would win the conference. That last part also appears to be correct. However, the only reason I moved Chicago this far down and behind WashU (despite a head-to-head win over the Bears)… six total losses for Chicago. They definitely can’t afford to lose any more games and need that AQ to make sure they make the tournament. Playing with fire in a city that has a love/hate relationship with flames.

Dropped out:

Franklin & Marshall (Previously 23)
It’s one thing to lost to a red hot Johns Hopkins teams, but to lose on the road to Washington is not good enough. I know the Diplomats struggle with Washington, especially on the road (lost to the Shoremen four of the last six years), but this season is one of those times you have to figure it out. You also can’t lose to Washington when you just lost to JHU. This is now two two-game losing streaks in seven games and it doesn’t get any easier: Ursinus, Muhlenberg, Gettysburg, and Dickinson. Buckle up F&M fans – this is going to be a very interested finish to the season.

Previous ballots:
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 9

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To be honest, I decided to make it a little easier on myself this week. I realized there were plenty of losses (yet again – 12 in my ballot alone) this week, but I thought maybe I was over-thinking things recently. Maybe, just maybe, I was making the Top 25 process too complicated of late. So, I decided to go with my gut a bit more.

The results? I certainly didn’t take six hours on my ballot this time. I probably took an hour. Now, that doesn’t add in the time I think about it during the week and especially on the weekend. I might be in my car heading to or from a game and be contemplating how Wooster’s loss to Ohio Wesleyan … or Wabash … or both … affects my ballot. I might be sitting on the couch watching TV with my wife when the debate over how to deal with NYU’s split of the weekend enters my head. However, the amount of time I sat down with a pencil, pad, D3hoops.com info packet (printed), in front of my computer was only an hour this week.

Oh, the results? I made some definite moves up and down on my ballot. I took two teams out. For the first time this year a team made it back on to my ballot (two actually). But all and all… it is what it is.

I’ve said it before and I will continue to say it. This is a tough year to be a Top 25 voter. There is just so much parity, it seems, in men’s basketball this season. There is just one undefeated team (Marietta) in the country right now. Whereas on the women’s side there are five with at least three probably making the post-season undefeated. No guarantees Marietta can do that. However, as Rusty Eggen said on the Hoopsville Marathon last Thursday: it might be tough for voters, but it is great for Division III. He’s right. So while I suck up and deal and vote accordingly, you better make sure you are enjoying this season. It is well worth the price of admission (if the school even charges in the first place).

As always before we begin, here is a look at last week’s ballot:

1 – St. Thomas
2 – UW-Whitewater
3 – Augustana
4 – Marietta
5 – Randolph-Macon
6 – Chapman
7 – WPI
8 – Babson
9 – Wooster
10 – Dickinson
11 – St. Norbert
12 – Albertus Magnus
13 – Emory
14 – Virginia Wesleyan
15 – New York Univ.
16 – St. John Fisher
17 – Whitworth
18 – Washington Univ.
19 – Elmhurst
20 – William Paterson
21 – Chicago
22 – Johns Hopkins
23 – Illinois Wesleyan
24 – Franklin & Marshall
25 – Case Western Reserve

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

2 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

3 – Marietta (Up 1)

4 – Randolph-Macon* (Up 1)

5 – Babson (Up 3)

6 – Augustana (Down 3)
In hindsight, I probably should have moved the Vikings a little further down the poll after losing to North Park. Augustana has lost two of their last four after all. However, they are also playing in the CCIW which is one of the top two conferences this season. They also lost to a team at the bottom of their conference, on the road, who also beat North Central and Carthage in the midst of a three-game winning streak. Augustana is probably the best team in the CCIW (despite two losses), but they need to tighten their belt buckles and focus at the job at hand or the CCIW will ding them a few more times and that will keep the Vikings from enjoying any home court advantage in the NCAA tournament which will mean an earlier than expected departure in March.

7 – Dickinson (Up 3)

8 – St. Norbert (Up 3)

9 – WPI* (Down 2)
If you were surprised WPI lost to Springfield on the road, you aren’t paying attention to the NEWMAC. The top of the conference with Babson, WPI, MIT, and Springfield is tough – remember Springfield won the conference tournament last year allowing for four teams to get into the NCAA tournament (where they all laid an egg on the first Friday night) [Edit: MIT actually beat Springfield in the conference championship. My mistake. MIT’s win actually got a fourth team into the NCAA tournament]. Charlie Brock versus Chris Bartley, with the talent they both have on their teams, is an outstanding coaching match-up. I was actually watching the game while PA announcing because I didn’t want to miss it. WPI is good and they are losing games I am not surprised they are losing (especially since they are close).

10 – Virginia Wesleyan (Up 4)

11 – Albertus Magnus (Up 1)
I know. I have stated several times that the Falcons were not going to move higher than 12th on my ballot. That was their ceiling. I knew the moment I wrote their names into the 11th slot I was going to need to explain this. The explanation is actually pretty simple and has nothing to do with the Falcons (sorry): I was moving other teams around and didn’t have a team I felt comfortable putting in the 11 slot… so I moved AMC up one spot.

12 – Chapman (Down 6)
You had to know the moment I bought in to a team like Chapman they would have a rough week. Losing two games to Cal Lutheran (13-4) and Pomona-Pitzer (6-12) was tough. If the loss had been just to Cal Lutheran, not a big deal. After all, Chapman, Cal Lutheran, and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps were expected to be the class of the SCIAC this season and were all worthy of Top 25 consideration even in the preseason. But the loss to Pomona-Pitzer, especially as the second of the two losses, is the rough one. Chapman is a pretty good team. You only hope the players learned a lesson from the results and don’t let the wheels fall off.

13 – St. John Fisher (Up 3)

14 – Emory (Down 1)
I’m not going to knock Emory for their loss on the road to New York Univ.* that much. First off, it was on the road in one of the tougher places to play. Second, it was the Sunday game which can be the toughest game to play on the road in the UAA. Third, it was NYU. Fourth, Emory actually came from pretty far down late in the game to nearly pull off the comeback win. Emory seemed to have played well from what I was watching while hosting Hoopsville that afternoon. Not going to ding Emory for that loss too much. (By the way, Emory plays five of their last seven games at home including NYU, Wash U*, and Chicago* – home cooking could be pretty good!)

15 – Whitworth (Up 2)

16 – Wooster (Down 7)
Losing for the second time this season to Ohio Wesleyan is one thing. Losing to Wabash, a team you beat by 29 points earlier in the season, is unacceptable. I know Wabash is a decent team (12-7) and I know the game was on the road. But a Top 25 team doesn’t lose the second game in a row to a team to a team they should beat handily. For some reason Ohio Wesleyan has Wooster’s number (season sweep), but Wabash had lost three in a row including Oberlin (8-11) and Wittenberg* (7-12). No excuses. I probably should have punished Wooster more… but it was a road game, I told myself.

17 – New York Univ.* (Down 2)
I would have moved the Violets ahead of Emory thanks to their win, but the loss to Rochester on Friday is a problem. I realize that Rochester is probably better than their record indicates and they are certainly well coached, but the Yellow Jackets were at the bottom of the UAA coming into that game with just one conference win (Carnegie Mellon) and the game as a HOME game for NYU! Where they looking ahead to Emory on Sunday? Where they dismissing the challenge Rochester could pose? I have no idea, but if they were dismissing Rochester as a threat they haven’t paying attention to how the Yellow Jackets played at Chicago and at Wash U recently. Bad loss that at least was made up for by beating Emory on Sunday.

18 – Johns Hopkins* (Up 5)

19 – Elmhurst (Unchanged)
By my rankings the loss to Augustana was expected (you can’t punish a team you have ranked behind another if they lost in a head-to-head with the other team, right?). Elmhurst then beat Millikin the next game. The only reason I didn’t move Elmhurst up my ballot (since they lost by just four to Augustana) was because the Vikings then lost to North Park on Saturday. There is a trickle-down affect sometimes. Elmhurst didn’t move as a result of Augustana’s trickle-down.

20 – Chicago* (Up 1)

21 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 1)

22 – Washington Univ.* (Down 4)
The Bears are not as good as the beginning of the season seemed to indicate. Remember this was the number one team in the country around Christmas! I am not saying Wash U isn’t a good team. We know they have one of the best coaches in the game, but they don’t have the experience or talent level we have grown accustomed to in St. Louis. To be honest, we probably fell for the smoke and mirrors a little because it was the beginning of seeing how much parity there is in basketball this season and they at least showed they could get some big wins. However, the conference has exposed them and if they didn’t find some sort of comeback in them on Sunday they would have been blown out yet again. One thing I am keeping in mind, though, when it comes to Wash U: they have lost three games this season all in conference and the UAA is probably the best conference in the country this season in terms of depth (with the CCIW also making a strong argument). The problem for Wash U is they can’t afford to take many more losses or they are going to be deep in the regional rankings making it difficult to get to the table for an at-large bid.

23 – Franklin & Marshall* (Up 1)

24 – Ohio Wesleyan (Unranked)
Welcome back to the Top 25, Battling Bishops. How will you disappoint me now? I am just kidding. No team is disappoint this season, but Ohio Wesleyan is the first of two teams to reenter my Top 25 ballot this season. The win over Wooster certainly was a statement win (including the fact they swept the Scots this season). Though, the close win to Hiram certainly gave me pause. But I went with my gut on this one. On paper, the Battling Bishops don’t have a very hard finish to the season which means for the first time in a long time the NCAC tournament may have to go through Delaware, Ohio!

25 – Catholic* (Unranked)
I have been apprehensive about the Cardinals for several weeks. I wasn’t blown away with Catholic at the beginning of the season. They played okay at the Hoopsville Classic and then lost to DeSales* and St. Vincent – not games they should be losing. But since the loss to the Bearcats, Catholic has rattled off 11 straight victories and have had some dominating wins in that stretch (including by 40 to Moravian Saturday). Maybe Steve Howes has his team clicking at just the right time. Well until maybe February 11 when Catholic has to travel to Goucher – my alma mater. Maybe the Gophers will finally rise up and beat their “rival” for the second time in two seasons. Eh… never mind.

Dropped out:

William Paterson (Previously 20)
I am not going to repeat what I said on Sunday’s Hoopsville except to paraphrase: I don’t think the NJAC is as great as the coaches in the conference thinks it is. There are certainly some good teams and the bottom is closer to the top than many conferences, but there aren’t any great teams in this conference. Take for example the fact William Paterson lost to Richard Stockton who had just lost to TCNJ three nights prior. I know they all have good records, but WP had to make a statement with the game against Stockton and instead lost at home in a game that would have put the Pioneers firmly in control of the conference lead.

Case Western Reserve (Previously 25)
I previously stated that the UAA was probably the best conference in the country this year, so seeing the Spartans lose on the road to Chicago and then come back to beat Wash U wasn’t surprising. And because of those results, like Emory and NYU, I probably shouldn’t have pulled them out of my Top 25. However, they have now lost two of the last four and I had them in the 25th slot – the bubble. I can’t keep them in the bubble spot, even if they are tied for the top of the UAA, if they have lost two in as many weeks. Case Western Reserve is the story of the UAA this season (and there are many stories), but the rematch with Chicago and Wash U this weekend at home is going to be the key to their season.

Previous ballots:

Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8