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Top 25 poll analysis

Wartburg played its way up in the Top 25.Photo by Caleb Williams, d3photography.com

Wartburg played its way up in the Top 25.
Photo by Caleb Williams, d3photography.com

I’ve often told people that you can’t just analyze a team’s placement or movement in the Top 25 in a vacuum. The reality is, all 25 teams’ placement (and those in the others receiving votes) are all relative.

Case in point this week: Wittenberg moves down three spots in the first regular-season D3football.com Top 25 after losing by six to Butler, a Division I FCS team (albeit, a non-scholarship opponent). When I’m voting, I try to keep a few things in mind: Did we expect this result, or should we have expected them to win? That may mean I don’t drop Wittenberg or a team in a similar situation (Thomas More) on my ballot.

Nonetheless, Wittenberg dropped three spots. And in all honesty, that’s because Wabash and Wartburg really deserved to move up. Wabash beat a ranked team, while Wartburg basically dismantled a pretty decent team.

It may also be helpful to look at the poll points. They can tell you two things — first of all, where are the tiers of teams, and secondly, how far a team truly moved each week.

Going back to Wittenberg as our example: The Tigers received 244 points in the preseason poll and 225 in the Week 1 poll. That difference of 19 points means that the 25 voters moved Wittenberg an average of about one spot on their ballot. But Wartburg went from 175 points to 267 (plus-92) and Wabash went from 191 to 294 (plus-103). Johns Hopkins, the other team that passed Wittenberg, gained 74 points as they helped erase one of the preseason concerns about their offense.

Wesley and Linfield swap spots. I think it’s pretty easy to see that Wesley beating a ranked team is more impressive than Linfield not playing. And this was only a shift of 12 points: Wesley trailed Linfield by five in the preseason and leads by seven now. There is a cluster of teams ranked 4-7 that are within 18 points of each other, then a big dropoff to No. 8 UW-Platteville and another one to No. 9 St. John Fisher.

ATN Podcast: Sold or not sold?

By this point in the season, it’s hard to call teams flukes, and teams that have gone above and beyond what we expected of them have to be dubbed something else, perhaps surprise teams.

If you’ve played three or four games and are undefeated, that’s one thing. If you’ve knocked off a team that was believed to be better than you are, that’s what makes you a surprise.

But can we believe in you? That’s another question. Most of these teams have yet to play the best team on their schedule. How will they hold up as the road gets tougher? That’s what Keith McMillan and I tackle in this week’s Around the Nation podcast. We look at more than a dozen teams with the goal of answering one simple question: sold or not sold?

One team we didn’t touch on in the podcast is St. Norbert. I would have to go with not sold, for the moment, waiting for the Monmouth game on the road to find out more. Hopefully Keith will weigh in in the comments section.

Click the play button below to listen.

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast