Mary Hardin-Baylor bounced Louisiana College from the playoffs, perhaps a round sooner than it should have been. Photo by Andrew Zavoina, d3photography.com

Subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes.

Maybe an upset isn’t an upset when 76 percent of you pick it to happen. There were five road teams who won on Saturday in the opening round of the playoffs and one of them was an upset if you believe in the other Top 25. But when Elmhurst and North Central each went on the road and won, and Bethel won on the road as well, they each struck blows for their conferences.

•Updated bracket, playoff features

But so did Concordia-Chicago. So did Framingham State, despite losing. There aren’t moral victories necessarily in the playoffs but it’s better to go out 20-19 or 24-23 than it is 73-14. But every game gets discussed and we look ahead to what we hope will be a great second weekend of the playoffs as well.

Keith and Pat talk about that and more in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast, sponsored by the City of Salem, hosts of Stagg Bowl XL. Tickets on sale now!

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your phone or portable device.

Around the Nation Podcast [ 1:06:54 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Postgame show

Here’s this week’s D3football.com reports, highlight packages and postgame interviews.

And this week’s photo galleries from our friends at d3photography.com:

• Christopher Newport at Mount Union
• Louisiana College at Mary Hardin-Baylor
• Bethel at Concordia-Chicago
• St. Scholastica at UW-Oshkosh
• Elmhurst at Coe
• Franklin at Adrian

Adrian · Battle of the Bergs · Bethel · Bridgewater State · Cal Lutheran · Christopher Newport · Coe · concordia-chicago · Concordia-Moorhead · Cortland State · Elmhurst · Framingham State · Franklin · Heidelberg · Hobart · Linfield · Louisiana College · Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount Ida · Mount Union · North Central (Ill.) · Pacific Lutheran · Rowan · Salisbury · St. Norbert · St. Scholastica · St. Thomas · UW-Oshkosh · UW-Platteville · Wabash · Washington and Lee · Wesley · Wheaton (Ill.) · Widener · Wittenberg

Josh Mitchell was featured in Kickoff back in August and as we reach mid-November, he and North Central are still in the picture. North Central photo by Steve Woltmann

Subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes.

Roughly 200 teams have already turned in their gear for the season, but there is still lots of exciting football left to play. For many teams, the past 10 games have been a buildup to the playoffs and the chance to prove their worth on the national stage.

D3football.com’s coverage will be going strong over the next few weeks, and that began Thursday with our 32-team capsules, one of the cornerstones of our postseason reporting. They offer insight on how to tell if a team is playing well or poorly, along with how far into the bracket we think each team can make it. We also took a long-view look at who might surprise and disappoint by the time the first three rounds are in the books.

But you’re still hungry for more, right?

From now until the second weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games in Triple Take, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out. (And we each make our picks independently.)

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.
How does this work?

•   First, look at the scoring margin. If they are predicted to be a close game, we think the teams are evenly matched.
•   Second, look at the winners. If it’s a three-man sweep, we think there’s a clear favorite. If it’s a split decision, it’s definitely a toss-up.
•   Third, look at the total points. If most of us predict a lot of points, you can expect a shootout. Weather permitting, of course.

It’s not a competition between the three of us, so we have no stake in being right — we’d rather see you show off your smarts in the bracket challenge. Ryan, Keith and Pat aren’t keeping score, but usually the first weekend, each picks between 12 and 14 correct winners, often in the ballpark of the actual final. That means these Triple Take picks set the expectation, but we know at least a few teams will surprise us in the opening round. Will it be yours?

If you don’t feel your team is getting enough love, jump in and explain to us in the comments section below why they’re going to win. And if you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and check back in afterward to see how you did. Be sure to follow the updates across the country on Twitter, using the hashtag #d3fb.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

LINFIELD BRACKET
Ryan’s take: Linfield 28, Pacific Lutheran 20
Keith’s take: Linfield 27, Pacific Lutheran 24
Pat’s take: Linfield 47, Pacific Lutheran 24

Ryan’s take: Cal Lutheran 30, North Central 28
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Cal Lutheran 34
Pat’s take: North Central 35, Cal Lutheran 32

Ryan’s take: Bethel 33, Concordia-Chicago 10
Keith’s take: Bethel 35, Concordia-Chicago 21
Pat’s take: Bethel 32, Concordia-Chicago 14

Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 44, St. Scholastica 13
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 55, St. Scholastica 10
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 56, St. Scholastica 6

ST. THOMAS BRACKET
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 43, St. Norbert 7
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 28, St. Norbert 7
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 45, St. Norbert 0

Ryan’s take: Coe 42, Elmhurst 13
Keith’s take: Coe 31, Elmhurst 21
Pat’s take: Elmhurst 38, Coe 35

Ryan’s take: Heidelberg 33, Wittenberg 24
Keith’s take: Heidelberg 21, Wittenberg 17
Pat’s take: Heidelberg 27, Wittenberg 20

Ryan’s take: Hobart 37, Washington and Lee 14
Keith’s take: Hobart 35, Washington and Lee 31
Pat’s take: Hobart 35, Washington and Lee 14

MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 37, Louisiana College 21
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Louisiana College 14
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Louisiana College 10

Ryan’s take: Adrian 21, Franklin 17
Keith’s take: Adrian 17, Franklin 14
Pat’s take: Adrian 21, Franklin 18

Ryan’s take: Cortland State 31, Framingham State 24
Keith’s take: Cortland State 29, Framingham State 15
Pat’s take: Cortland State 38, Framingham State 7

Ryan’s take: Wesley 41, Mount Ida 14
Keith’s take: Wesley 42, Mount Ida 20
Pat’s take: Wesley 62, Mount Ida 0

MOUNT UNION BRACKET
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 56, Christopher Newport 7
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Christopher Newport 0
Pat’s take: Mount Union 61, Christopher Newport 0

Ryan’s take: Washington and Jefferson 28, Johns Hopkins 27
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 28, Washington and Jefferson 17
Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 24, Washington and Jefferson 21

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 27, Rowan 20
Keith’s take: Salisbury 21, Rowan 12
Pat’s take: Rowan 31, Salisbury 20

Ryan’s take: Widener 49, Bridgewater State 24
Keith’s take: Widener 60, Bridgewater State 20
Pat’s take: Widener 63, Bridgewater State 6

Adrian · Bethel · Bridgewater State · Cal Lutheran · Christopher Newport · Coe · concordia-chicago · Cortland State · Elmhurst · Framingham State · Franklin · Heidelberg · Hobart · Johns Hopkins · Linfield · Louisiana College · Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount Ida · Mount Union · North Central · Pacific Lutheran · Rowan · Salisbury · St. Norbert · St. Scholastica · St. Thomas · UW-Oshkosh · Washington and Jefferson · Washington and Lee · Wesley · Widener · Wittenberg

Kevin Burke and Mount Union are going strong, despite Heidelberg actually scoring this week. Mount Union athletics photo by JT Higgins

Subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes.

Now at least we know we will have no more than one Purple Power in Salem for the Stagg Bowl, after the elimination of UW-Whitewater from any reasonable playoff hopes with its third overall loss and second regional loss this week. If Mount were to advance, who might join them? And what do the potential No. 1 seeds need to avoid? Keith and Pat talk about it in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast, sponsored by the City of Salem, hosts of Stagg Bowl XL. Tickets on sale now!

As the season winds down, there are just 22 conferences left to have teams clinch automatic bids, so there’s still a long way to go. Not all of them can clinch this week either, but some can, and some teams on byes can actually clinch from home. Plus, as at-large bids go, some teams played themselves out of consideration this week by picking up a second loss, while some two-loss teams actually have strong resumes for consideration.

Pat and Keith talk about a lot of teams this week, including both teams in the Mount Union-Heidelberg game. Check the tags at the bottom of this page to find out who is on the topics list.

Hit play below to listen, or subscribe to get this podcast on your phone or portable device.

Around the Nation Podcast [ 1:04:14 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Postgame show

Here’s this week’s D3football.com reports and highlight packages.

And this week’s photo gallery from our friends at d3photography.com:

• Albion vs. Olivet

Adrian · Albion · Amherst · Baldwin-Wallace · Bethel · Coe · concordia-chicago · Concordia-Moorhead · Heidelberg · Hobart · Huntingdon · Illinois Wesleyan · Ithaca · Kenyon · Lake Forest · Linfield · Mount Union · North Central (Ill.) · Ohio Wesleyan · Pacific Lutheran · Salisbury · St. Norbert · St. Thomas · Trinity (Conn.) · Union · Utica · UW-Oshkosh · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Washington and Jefferson · Waynesburg · Wesley · Wheaton (Ill.) · Willamette · Wittenberg

In this photo, you can see the Concordia-Moorhead defender just about to control the fumble, with players already well out onto the field. Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com

Subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes.

It’s destined to go down as one of the great finishes in Division III football history, and while it doesn’t have a catchy nickname like the Mississippi Miracle or the Miracle in the Mud, the way Concordia-Moorhead’s loss to Bethel went down is going to be talked about for a long time.

If you have not watched this game yet, watch Bethel’s archive now. If you just want to skip ahead to the final couple of plays start at the 2:24:00 mark.

Pat and Keith talk about that and more in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast. It was a sad weekend on both the campuses of Washington and Jefferson and Bates, where young men who played football each died last week. There were also two other games between Top 25 teams and a game that is normally good for the North Coast Athletic Conference title. But will Wabash and Wittenberg do so this year? Pat and Keith point out that it’s not so clear.

We also get a first-person look at Widener, talk about midwest and east coast conference races and much more.

Around the Nation Podcast [ 1:05:24 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Postgame shows

Here’s this week’s D3football.com reports and highlight packages, including Bethel-Concordia highlights.

And this week’s photo galleries from our friends at d3photography.com:

• Concordia-Moorhead at Bethel
• Cal Lutheran at Redlands
• Adrian at Alma

Allegheny · Augsburg · Best finishes ever · Bethel · Birmingham-Southern · Cal Lutheran · Concordia-Moorhead · Illinois College · Kenyon · Lake Forest · Mount Union · Ohio Wesleyan · Redlands · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Norbert · St. Thomas · Stevenson · Sul Ross State · Tim McNerney · Utica · UW-Platteville · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Washington and Jefferson · Wesley · Whitworth · Widener · Willamette · Wittenberg

In Jared Morris’ first game as a defensive back, he picked off four passes. Wesley athletics photo

Who would have thought that we’d see the record books being rewritten right out of the gate? But that’s why the game is played, isn’t it, to see the greatness of individual players and of teams emerge? Some rise up and conquer their opponents against the odds, and sometimes it’s not just the record books that are rewritten — but our perspectives as well.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps lay out their evolving perspectives, building off the week gone by and forecasting the Saturday ahead. We don’t live in a bubble, so please comment below or light it up on Twitter using the hashtag #3take.

Lots of teams that took Week 1 off are joining the fray this weekend:

Game of the week.
Ryan’s take: No. 3 Wesley at No. 6 Salisbury. Two of the top teams in the country, led by two of the highest-outputting quarterbacks at this level, and playing in the storied Route 13 Rivalry. This is the kind of matchup worth salivating over.
Pat’s take: Christopher Newport at Hampden-Sydney. It’s high time these two teams played each other. They have scrimmaged each other fairly frequently, but have not met in a regular season or postseason game. But with a combined record of 139-53 over the past decade, these two Virginia schools should be on the field together, and it should be an entertaining game.
Keith’s take: No. 14 Redlands at No. 13 North Central. When the Bulldogs beat the Cardinals in California, it echoed throughout the top 25 for much of last season. This year, North Central is hosting, coming off a Week 1 loss to a WIAC team and looking to return the favor. North Central, long considered one of the D-III programs most likely to break through to Salem in place of the purple powers, is now fighting to avoid an 0-2 start. Meanwhile, it’s the opener for Redlands and quarterback Chad Hurst, and an opportunity to score another one for the SCIAC while national observers are paying attention. 

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Washington U. at Rhodes. I typed and deleted this answer probably six times before settling on this game. Because, when it comes down to it, almost every game at this point in the season has a surprise element of some sort that affects the outcome, even if it’s just how a new player is going to perform under center or how well an offensive line will mesh. Me, I can see Washington being pretty beat up after taking on the defending national champs. That opens a door, even if just a crack, for Rhodes to be competitive.
Pat’s take: Eureka at St. Scholastica. The teams couldn’t have been further apart in their first-week opponents. There are a couple of other UMAC teams stepping up to play strong non-conference opponents (Northwestern playing St. John’s, MacMurray playing Wartburg) but Eureka beating Knox and St. Scholastica losing to Whitworth doesn’t show the relative strength of the teams. But Eureka, our pick to finish tied for sixth in the league, and St. Scholastica our pick to win it, should play an entertaining and relatively high scoring game. The question is whether the front six can get enough pressure on Eureka quarterback Sam Durley to force him to get rid of the ball. Otherwise he will pick apart just about any secondary in the UMAC.
Keith’s take: Montclair State at Salve Regina. The teams met last season, and the Seahawks were game but not able to win in New Jersey, losing 18-7. This time around, the game is in Rhode Island, the Red Hawks are fielding a much younger lineup and coming off a Week 1 loss. Salve, on the other hand, beat Union despite just 246 yards of total offense. That might not be enough to beat Montclair State, but Salve should against give them a scare, at least.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 15 Bethel. Bethel travels to Wartburg, but don’t think for a moment that the Knights’ 73-0 stomping of a lower-tier UMAC team did them many favors in terms of preparation. Complacency can’t set in. The Royals are a whole different beast. Wartburg at least has a game under its belt, which Bethel can’t claim.
Pat’s take: No. 21 UW-Platteville. Dubuque still has enough offensive talent to cause trouble. They won’t be intimidated by a WIAC team, especially not the ones across the river. I look at Dubuque and picture them thinking Platteville has the notoriety and the ranking Dubuque earned with its play last season.
Keith’s take: No. 9 St. John Fisher. Boy, one week we love you and the next … well, it’s not really that the Cardinals are ripe for upset. It’s that there’s playing at Washington & Jefferson, often the equal to fellow PAC power Thomas More. The Saints pushed the Cardinals into overtime in Week 1.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: No. 5 Linfield. In Kickoff, I made an unusual prediction about the Wildcats, but to have a good run this fall, they need to make sure that they shore up their fresh-faced secondary. Hardin-Simmons has the ability to spread the ball around and get some yards, but turnovers for the Cowboys were a killer in Week 1. If Linfield can replicate that kind of containment of the HSU passing game, then the future in McMinnville will look even brighter.
Pat’s take: Huntingdon. If the experienced front four can bottle up or at least slow down Birmingham-Southern running back Shawn Morris, it will give the Hawks a little room to work with. Only the winner is likely to stay in contention for a playoff bid, and even then they really have to beat Wesley.
Keith’s take: Buffalo State and Brockport State. Okay, you got our attention in Week 1. The Bengals put up 49 points and 706 yards on Cortland State. The Golden Eagles limited Lycoming to 31 yards rushing, three third-down conversions and just 23:17 of possession and 60 snaps. Something’s got to give in this week’s clash of the SUNYs, and we’ll be watching the game at Brockport to see what.

Which team will bounce back from a Week 1 loss?
Ryan’s take: Christopher Newport. Don’t be fooled by the Captains’ 40-16 loss last week. With 3:30 left in the third quarter, the score was 20-16, and CNU was notably keeping pace with the sixth-best team in the nation. CNU showed it had offense thanks to a strong passing attack, but the defense was simply worn down in the trenches. Hampden-Sydney doesn’t play such a hard-nosed style — they’re more of a finesse team. CNU should be ready to handle that well.
Pat’s take: No. 16 Franklin. Butler is beatable, even though it’s apparently “Band Day” at the D-I non-scholarship school. Butler’s better than Valparaiso is, a team which Franklin beat last year, but even being competitive is better than last week’s loss to Mount Union.
Keith’s take: Adrian, St. Norbert and Monmouth. This was covered in my Around the Nation column this week, so I have three teams at the ready. Defiance, Knox and Beloit are this week’s opponents for the Bulldogs, Green Knights and Scots, and if they all don’t win by double digits, I’d be stunned. 

Opener you’re most curious about.
Ryan’s take: DePauw. I’m not sure that lining up against St. Olaf is going to tell me much about how well the Tigers will play against their new North Coast conference mates. DePauw’s lone year as an independent in 2011 told us a lot about the considerable rebuilding the team was going through (first losing season since 1995). The Oles are good at breaking through the bricks and mortar of a team, but DePauw can’t let Saturday’s likely setback cripple the next nine weeks.
Pat’s take: Bethel. I know the passing game has not been a big part of the Royals’ offense so I’m more interested in new quarterback’s Erik Peterson’s running ability. They’ll get a big test right out of the gate. Normally I would give Wartburg a bit of a bonus for having played a game already but MacMurray didn’t put up much of a fight and the starters were out early.
Keith’s take: Cal Lutheran. There are six teams who have yet to open up in the top 25, including Wabash, Redlands, Bethel, Baldwin Wallace and Mary-Hardin Baylor. I’m intrigued by all of them, but none more than the Kingsmen, who were a hair away from winning a playoff opener at Linfield last year, and earning the SCIAC unprecedented respect. I wanted to ride that wave and rank them higher, but with only 13 starters back, including six on offense and five on defense, I was wary. Seeing how the Kingsmen play in the opener against Pacific Lutheran will help define how voters feel about them, not to mention how they feel about themselves. Plus we’re all curious to see 6-4 star wide receiver Eric Rogers back in action.

Which long road trip will turn out the best?
Ryan’s take: Washington and Lee at Sewanee. In Week 1, the Generals fell to Franklin and Marshall, in a matchup that’s opened the season for several years now. But even in those years in which W&L has lost, the Generals have shown themselves adept at bouncing back, righting their ship ahead of conference play. Making this all the more exciting is Sewanee, coming off its best season in nearly a decade and starting 2012 with a win. This should be a good matchup, with W&L ultimately landing its first win of the season.
Pat’s take: St. Olaf at DePauw. I think DePauw has more work to do before it can begin to bounce back from last year. The long trip is not all that unusual for the Oles, who played at Pacific Lutheran in 2009, so the only issue is that St. Olaf needs to play better than it did at Luther last week.
Keith’s take: Rowan at Merrimack. It’s basically NWC-SCIAC challenge week out West, but the matchups are surprisingly even. There are a ton of short non-conference trips this week, like Methodist to Guilford and Case Western Reserve to Hiram, leaving me to take a out-of-division game here. But if the Profs, like the Rowan teams of old, beats a team from a scholarship division, it sends a message to the NJAC that perhaps the program is back. Nevermind that Merrimack, from the D-II Northeast-10, is probably recruiting players who compare to those recruited into the NJAC, with Rowan’s public-school tuition and dearth of in-state competition for players. This is a winnable game for Rowan, riding high after the Week 1 upset. Merrimack, which lost, 45-18, to New Haven in its opener could be demoralized by an early Profs score or two.

Adrian · Bethel · Birmingham-Southern · Brockport State · Buffalo State · Cal Lutheran · Christopher Newport · DePauw · Dubuque · Eureka · Hampden-Sydney · Hardin-Simmons · Huntingdon · Linfield · Monmouth · Montclair State · North Central · Redlands · Rhodes · Rowan · Salisbury · Salve Regina · Sewanee · St. John Fisher · St. Norbert · St. Olaf · St. Scholastica · UW-Platteville · Wartburg · Washington and Jefferson · Washington and Lee · Washington U. · Wesley