Quick Hits predicts the first round scores

Posted on November 22, 2019 by Greg Thomas

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 28 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Redlands 10 Pat’s take: UMHB 45, Redlands 24	Adam’s take: UMHB 23, Redlands 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 35, Redlands 17 Greg’s take: UMHB 30, Redlands 14
Consensus: Strong consensus here for a Cru win by two or three scores.
Keith’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 31 Ryan’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 34 Pat’s take: Berry 56, Huntingdon 17	Adam’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21 Frank’s take: Huntingdon 31, Berry 30 Greg’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 13
Consensus: Not quite unanimous, but the panel favors Berry by varying margins.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 21 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 7 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 50, Monmouth 6	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 44, Monmouth 24 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 47, Monmouth 16 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Monmouth 7
Consensus: Unanimous picks for a comfortable Warhawk victory.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21 Ryan’s take: Wartburg 34, Hope 24 Pat’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 28	Adam’s take: Wartburg 40, Hope 37 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21 Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 35
Consensus: It’s a sweep for Wartburg in a high scoring, one score game.

Wheaton bracket
Keith’s take: Wheaton 49, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6 Pat’s take: Wheaton 62, Martin Luther 6	Adam’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6 Frank’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 10 Greg’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 0
Consensus: The panel sees top-seeded Wheaton cruising into the second round.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 18, Central 14 Ryan’s take: Central 28, UW-Oshkosh 27 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 30, Central 20	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 27 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 31, Central 20 Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 10
Consensus: It isn’t unanimous, but the Titans are the panel’s choice to advance by one or two scores.
Keith’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27 Ryan’s take: Linfield 31, Chapman 28 Pat’s take: Chapman 28, Linfield 27	Adam’s take: Linfield 19, Chapman 16 Frank’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27 Greg’s take: Chapman 24, Linfield 21
Consensus: Split decision for Linfield in what appears to be one of the closer games of the first round.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 38, Aurora 24 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Aurora 13 Pat’s take: St. John’s 54, Aurora 35	Adam’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 35 Frank’s take: St. John’s 45, Aurora 14 Greg’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 21
Consensus: Aurora likely won’t get completely shut down, but St. John’s should be able to outscore the Spartans and win by multiple scores.

Salisbury bracket
Keith’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0 Ryan’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0 Pat’s take: Salisbury 68, SUNY-Maritime 0	Adam’s take: Salisbury 57, SUNY-Maritime 9 Frank’s take: Salisbury 55, SUNY-Maritime 10 Greg’s take: Salisbury 56, SUNY-Maritime 7
Consensus: Unanimous predictions here for an easy run to the second round for the Sea Gulls.
Keith’s take: Union 31, Case 21 Ryan’s take: Union 38, Case 17 Pat’s take: Union 24, Case 17	Adam’s take: Union 34, Case 24 Frank’s take: Union 31, Case 21 Greg’s take: Union 27, Case 17
Consensus: Clean sweep for the Dutchmen, generally by about 10 points.
Keith’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 14 Pat’s take: Muhlenberg 56, MIT 6	Adam’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 3 Frank’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 14 Greg’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 7
Consensus: The Mules should overwhelm the Engineers and trot on in to the second round.
Keith’s take: Brockport 22, W. New England 19 Ryan’s take: W. New England 24, Brockport 21 Pat’s take: Brockport 24, W. New England 13	Adam’s take: Brockport 20, W. New England 14 Frank’s take: W. New England 27, Brockport 20 Greg’s take: Brockport 26, W. New England 10
Consensus: Split decision for Brockport, but this game looks to be close.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 7 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 3 Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Hanover 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 48, Hanover 24 Frank’s take: Mount Union 59, Hanover 7 Greg’s take: Mount Union 61, Hanover 10
Consensus: No surprise here, Mount Union is predicted to advance easily.
Keith’s take: North Central 40, Wabash 25 Ryan’s take: North Central 42, Wabash 10 Pat’s take: North Central 56, Wabash 10	Adam’s take: North Central 38, Wabash 14 Frank’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21 Greg’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Consensus: North Central’s top-ranked offense sweeps the board with a comfortable win over Wabash.
Keith’s take: Wesley 17, Framingham State 14 Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Framingham State 20 Pat’s take: Wesley 41, Framingham State 24	Adam’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20 Frank’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20 Greg’s take: Wesley 24, Framingham State 21
Consensus: Wesley is the unanimous pick, but five of our panelists see a one score game.
Keith’s take: Del Val 28, Bridgewater 24 Ryan’s take: Del Val 41, Bridgewater 21 Pat’s take: Bridgewater 17, Del Val 15	Adam’s take: Bridgewater 21, Del Val 14 Frank’s take: Del Val 27, Bridgewater 24 Greg’s take: Del Val 17, Bridgewater 10
Consensus: Split decision for Delaware Valley, with the panel largely seeing a close game that could go either way.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

Around the Nation Podcast 225: Just good enough

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Keith McMillan pleaded for a first round of the playoffs that didn’t stink. And he got it, if nothing else, because his alma mater, Randolph-Macon, upset John Carroll.

Now, your mileage may have varied. With a margin of victory of nearly 34 points on average, these were not great games. With a near quadruple monkey stomp and several other games that looked like the usual top seed vs. No. 8 seed contests, there weren’t many worth watching for a neutral Division III fan. Unless, of course, you hooked into the Randolph-Macon win, or St. Norbert’s upset of Trine, or Muhlenberg’s dramatic finish at Delaware Valley.

Hear highlights from Saturday, postgame commentary from teams advancing to the Round of 16, and more in the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.
Full episode:

D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast [ 55:00 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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Link: Our full NCAA playoff coverage
Mentioned in the podcast: Defense lights UW-Whitewater’s fire, feature by Joe Sager

Photo: Eric Hoy needs several John Carroll defenders to bring him down. (John Carroll athletics photo)

Theme music: DJmentos.

Quick Hits: Predicting the first-round scores

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. Plus, we have Logan Hansen’s odds to advance and at the bottom, a widget you can manipulate to get details on all 32 teams and compare teams head-to-head in a multitude of categories.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 10 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Hardin-Simmons 14 Pat’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 7	Adam’s take: UMHB 38, Hardin-Simmons 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 44, Hardin-Simmons 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 35, Hardin-Simmons 10
Hansen odds to advance: UMHB, 93.7% Consensus: Strong consensus for a Mary Hardin-Baylor win, of around five scores to two.
Keith’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 10 Ryan’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 13 Pat’s take: Berry 35, Maryville 10	Adam’s take: Berry 31, Maryville 13 Frank’s take: Berry 37, Maryville 30 Greg’s take: Berry 28, Maryville 20
Hansen odds to advance: Berry, 70.8% Consensus: The first meeting was 38-3 and the second meeting isn’t expected to be much different.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 56, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Martin Luther 7 Pat’s take: St. John’s 62, Martin Luther 8	Adam’s take: St. John’s 63, Martin Luther 0 Frank’s take: St. John’s 54, Martin Luther 7 Greg’s take: St. John’s 58, Martin Luther 7
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 100.0% Consensus: St. John’s in a runaway.
Keith’s take: Whitworth 21, C-M-S 17 Ryan’s take: Whitworth 45, C-M-S 6 Pat’s take: Whitworth 24, C-M-S 6	Adam’s take: Whitworth 35, C-M-S 3 Frank’s take: Whitworth 49, C-M-S 14 Greg’s take: Whitworth 31, C-M-S 10
Hansen odds to advance: Whitworth, 92.1% Consensus: Wide range of scores by which Whitworth is expected to advance.

UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Eureka 6 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Eureka 10 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 58, Eureka 12	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Eureka 6 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Eureka 3 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 48, Eureka 7
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Whitewater, 99.9% Consensus: Whitewater by a lot.
Keith’s take: Trine 27, St. Norbert 17 Ryan’s take: St. Norbert 24, Trine 17 Pat’s take: Trine 42, St. Norbert 16	Adam’s take: St. Norbert 20, Trine 17 Frank’s take: Trine 37, St. Norbert 27 Greg’s take: Trine 28, St. Norbert 27
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 70.5% Consensus: A split decision favoring Trine, but by varying margins.
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Hanover 14 Ryan’s take: North Central 48, Hanover 7 Pat’s take: North Central 51, Hanover 14	Adam’s take: North Central 56, Hanover 13 Frank’s take: North Central 47, Hanover 10 Greg’s take: North Central 40, Hanover 17
Hansen odds to advance: North Central, 98.3% Consensus: North Central advancing easily.
Keith’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Ryan’s take: Bethel 31, Wartburg 23 Pat’s take: Wartburg 24, Bethel 13	Adam’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Bethel 24 Greg’s take: Wartburg 17, Bethel 14
Hansen odds to advance: Bethel, 67.2% Consensus: A pure 50-50 split decision which is likely headed for a recount.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 21 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Denison 7 Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Denison 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 67, Denison 3 Greg’s take: Mount Union 42, Denison 14
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 98.7% Consensus: Mount Union wins in a day which is a struggle for the Denison offense.
Keith’s take: Centre 28, W&J 27 Ryan’s take: Centre 38, W&J 31 Pat’s take: W&J 34, Centre 24	Adam’s take: Centre 31, W&J 24 Frank’s take: Centre 37, W&J 34 Greg’s take: Centre 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Centre, 76.7% Consensus: Non-unanimous consensus that Centre wins one of the best games of the day.
Keith’s take: John Carroll 41, Randolph-Macon 17 Ryan’s take: John Carroll 49, Randolph-Macon 13 Pat’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 14	Adam’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 16 Frank’s take: John Carroll 40, Randolph-Macon 13 Greg’s take: John Carroll 35, Randolph-Macon 17
Hansen odds to advance: John Carroll, 85.4% Consensus: John Carroll winning easily.
Keith: Muhlenberg 23, Delaware Valley 20 Ryan: Muhlenberg 28, Delaware Valley 27 Pat: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 17	Adam: Muhlenberg 35, Delaware Valley 32 Frank: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 31 Greg: Muhlenberg 31, Delaware Valley 28
Hansen odds to advance: Muhlenberg, 56.0%, the lowest odds of any predicted winner. Consensus: Unanimous picks of road teams are rare, but note that five of the six pick margins of three or less.

Brockport bracket
Keith’s take: Brockport 35, Framingham St. 7 Ryan’s take: Brockport 49, Framingham St. 10 Pat’s take: Brockport 48, Framingham St. 10	Adam’s take: Brockport 38, Framingham St. 6 Frank’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 10 Greg’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 13
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 97.7% Consensus: Brockport moving on in the style of their choosing.
Keith’s take: Husson 10, RPI 9 Ryan’s take: RPI 23, Husson 21 Pat’s take: RPI 30, Husson 17	Adam’s take: RPI 24, Husson 20 Frank’s take: RPI 30, Husson 27 Greg’s take: RPI 20, Husson 10
Hansen odds to advance: RPI, 62.6% Consensus: RPI in a non-unanimous game that’s generally expected to be close.
Keith’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 14 Ryan’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 10 Pat’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10	Adam’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10 Frank’s take: Frostburg St. 44, Western N.E. 14 Greg’s take: Frostburg St. 38, Western N.E. 7
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 92.4% Consensus: Frostburg advancing with ease.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 7 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 16	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 43, MIT 14 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, MIT 17 Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, MIT 10
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 96.8% Consensus: Johns Hopkins winning the brainiac bowl.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps, @d3football, @adamturer, @frankrossi and @wallywabash. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.