Three of this weekend’s contenders are on familiar ground, while the third, St. Thomas, has been building to this point over the past three seasons. Adding a dimension of excitement to the St. Thomas/UW-Whitewater matchup is seeing Gagliardi Trophy finalists Fritz Waldvogel and Matt Blanchard lead the offensive charge for their respective teams.

You’ve been following through the first three rounds; you’ve heard the breakdowns of last week and more in the Around the Nation Podcast; and you’ve probably perused the Post Patterns message board for extra bits of insight.

Today’s Triple Take brings all the pieces together with score predictions and analysis of both of the national semifinal games. The winners of these games get to travel to Salem, Division III’s Tinseltown, for the 39th Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl.

On Saturday, there’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included. Take a look at our playoffs home page for our Road to Salem feature stories and more!

Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, St. Thomas 20
The Warhawks have been dismantling quality teams from Day 1 of the 2011 season. And when a team like the Tommies has one receiver who accounts for three times more receiving yards than other individual on the team, Whitewater will know who to zero in on. Talented defensive backs will be disruptive, and a vicious UW-W front line will get pressure on any quarterback it comes across. And there’s not a running game around that can get through the linebackers led by Greg Arnold and Ryan Cortez (just ask Salisbury). St. Thomas definitely has a couple of stunning skill players, but Whitewater hasn’t gotten to where they are over the past seven seasons without being able to neutralize those skills. The Tommies will need a bit of razzle-dazzle to win; simple strength won’t be enough. I’m not sure that they have it. The Warhawks are tested, and players on the both sides of the ball complement one another. Sure, Warhawk quarterback Matt Blanchard and rusher Levell Coppage are great skill players, but it’s the supporting cast that will make sure this game falls in favor of Whitewater.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 24, St. Thomas 17
So remember last week when I pointed out how UW-Whitewater always plays a close quarterfinal or semifinal, and wrote Salisbury would be that game? Wrong. But I implore you to believe me this week (or don’t): THIS is that game. In all seriousness, there isn’t a program that’s more ready for this challenge than St. Thomas. The Tommies are very much built in the Warhawks’ likeness: Smother the opposing run game (1.56 yards per carry; UW-W allows 2.73; the national average in D-III this season was 3.99), be physical on offense as well, and take care of the ball. I requested game video from both schools this week so I could make a detailed and informed pick. With both teams so dependent on establishing the run (Colin Tobin, 605 yards, 7TDs in playoffs and UW-W’s Levell Coppage, 514 and 10) the only way I felt I could get a feel for if either would be successful was to re-watch both games. Unfortunately only St. Thomas came through. So my insight isn’t what it could be, but there’s this: St. Thomas can win. They’re versatile enough on offense to score and they pursue well on defense, meaning long runs will be hard to come by for the Warhawks. But whenever the going gets tough for UW-Whitewater, they can buckle down and move the ball by handing it to Levell Coppage. And the Tommies, their gaudy rush defense numbers aside, don’t look to the naked eye to be rugged enough to consistently stand up to the Warhawks’ pounding. They’ll need some turnovers and big plays to sway the game, because the Warhawks aren’t flashy, they’re just better than everyone that lines up against them.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, St. Thomas 25
I’ve been asked many times in the past couple of weeks if I thought St. Thomas could beat UW-Whitewater. I think they could, but I’d feel more secure in that if they had won their quarterfinal last year and gone on to play Mount Union. I think most teams playing one of the Powers for the first time feel just a little bit of intimidation, but even if not, the adjustment period is noticeable. (Yes, Mary Hardin-Baylor 2004, I see you back there.) St. Thomas has started a bit slow each of the past two weeks, heck, the past three weeks if you think the Tommies shouldn’t have had to punt three times in their first four possessions against St. Scholastica. A slow start against UW-Whitewater could mean a 21-0 deficit. The tough run defense will face the biggest challenge in Division III football. Not many have contained Levell Coppage.

Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Mount Union 24
I’ve been in this spot before, willing to channel my faith in Wesley into a national semifinal prediction. The Wolverines have emerged from the most loaded bracket of the bunch and have taken down some of the nation’s top polled teams in Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor. And they did it in distinctly different ways, playing to the pressure of the moment and coming up big when it was needed. Wesley signal-caller Shane McSweeny is as great a runner as he is a passer, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against one of the most statistically stingy run defenses in the country. And Mount’s pass defense benefits from the likes of Nick Driskill, probably the nation’s scariest guy to throw the ball near. Those defensive elements from Mount take away a lot of Wesley’s strength. However, Mount today isn’t the Mount of last year; or of the year before when Cecil Shorts turned a tight matchup against Wesley into a rout. The question that has to be asked is: Is Wesley capable of taking itself to the championship level? They’ve been so close so often since 2005. This is their moment. It won’t be easy, but nothing has been for them this postseason. I’m colorblind, so I probably won’t be able to tell the difference, but the Stagg Bowl will be purple and navy this year.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 20, Wesley 17
I requested and was promised video from both schools here too, but the DVDs never arrived. Because I’m located so close to Dover, I’ve seen Wesley twice this season, and because I didn’t have DirecTV and Sports Time Ohio, I’ve seen less Mount Union than usual. I wanted to be careful not to pick Wesley just because I know more about them. There are two variables here that could greatly sway the outcome: Which QB takes snaps for Mount Union, and which personality Wesley takes on. Neal Seaman, Matt Piloto and freshman Kevin Burke all played for the Purple Raiders last week, and it’s hard to speculate which one they’d be best off with against Wesley. Meanwhile, Wolverines QB Shane McSweeny — the nation’s fourth-most efficient passer and one of its most versatile quarterbacks — has taken care of the ball all season, never throwing more than one interception in a game. He’s thrown 13 TD passes and two interceptions in three playoff wins, against by far the best competition any of the semifinalists have played. That’s key, because the Purple Raiders are famously successful when winning the turnover battle — 162-1 since 1990, with the loss coming in the 1995 playoffs. So we’ve got two major themes: How Charles Dieseul, Nick Driskill and a smothering defense deals with the multiple threats of McSweeny, the big body of tight end Sean McAndrew and the speed of Wesley’s Steven Koudoussou and Matt Barile. And then how Wesley’s defense — equally adept at smothering teams — functions against Mount Union’s not-as-dynamic-as-usual offense. The Wolverines played great halves against Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor; they’ll need to play four great quarters to slow RB Jeremy Murray and the Purple Raiders’ offense. Are the poor tackling, penalty-prone Wolverines going to show up in Alliance, or are the sharp, multitalented, inspired-by-Ben Knapp Wolverines going to be there? I could honestly see a St. Thomas-Wesley Stagg Bowl, and it would be refreshing for D-III to shake things up a little. But I’ve learned my lesson being wrong over the years. In a game in Alliance, the safe pick is the Purple Raiders.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 16, Wesley 13
I still like Mount Union’s chances of winning with defense, even if they are indeed down to their third-string quarterback. The defense should play well enough, especially the front six, to keep Wesley’s offense in check. I agree this is Wesley’s best chance, but I am not sure that is enough here. Keeping Shane McSweeny contained is the key to stopping the Wesley offense, granted, but I think it’s also time to give the Purple Raiders special teams some shine as well. If Hobart and Kean can put Wesley in bad spots with special teams plays, couldn’t Mount Union also? Enough offense will come. Mount Union can’t score like Linfield or Mary Hardin-Baylor, but won’t need to either.

Mount Union · semifinals · St. Thomas · Stagg Bowl · UW-Whitewater · Wesley

Jeremy Murray returned and got 25 carries for Mount Union. Photo by JT Higgins for d3photography.com

Now that we’ve reached the semifinals, will someone challenge UW-Whitewater and Mount Union? St. Thomas and Wesley will get their chance this week, and meanwhile, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan take a first look at the upcoming games in this week’s Around the Nation podcast.

You’ll also hear another coach’s assessment of one of our semifinal teams, plus Gagliardi Trophy talk and more. Don’t forget to vote for the Gagliardi Trophy, through noon EST Monday.

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Plus, here’s this week’s D3football.com reports.

ESPN3 · Gagliardi Trophy · Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount Union · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Mike Asiedu and the Wesley defense face a potent UMHB offense. Wesley athletics photo

We have two interesting cross-region quarterfinals, where two East teams can give the region some long-awaited credibility with games against West Region opponents. We also have a 2002 quarterfinal rematch and a multiple-time rematch in the South. You’ve already seen our picks, and thanks to those who have weighed in there as well.

We’ll be following along all day with our live chat below, and you can join in the chat window or by using the #d3fb hashtag on Twitter. Just one noon game and three 1 p.m. games, so Mount Union-Wabash gets center stage to start off.

Not that you can watch it.

Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount Union · playoffs · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Mount Union’s defense has not been a problem this season. Mount Union athletics photo

Is your heart still pounding after the comeback-laden Round 2? The field shrank to just eight teams, and we’re a mere 14 days from the final matchup in Salem.

Here in the regional finals, two Empire 8 teams are still alive, and both must travel to the upper Midwest for their Saturday matchups. Elsewhere, Wesley and Mary Hardin-Baylor are meeting in the postseason for the sixth time in seven years, with the Wolverines holding the 3-2 edge. The day’s fourth game, between Mount Union and Wabash, comes nine years after these teams last met, which was also the last time the Little Giants made it this deep in the playoffs.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you more than just score predictions this week; we also give you a breakdown of each game and what we think the key factors will be.

If you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses below. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the postseason, including the brackets and our Road to Salem feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 40, Salisbury 21
The Warhawks give up barely 70 yards a game on the ground; Salisbury gains on average more than 360. It’s likely Saturday’s result will meet somewhere in between. The Gulls have put up wads of points all season on teams that aren’t familiar with its triple-option offense, which has the dynamic trio of superback Randal Smedley, slot Ross Flanigan and quarterback Dan Griffin at its disposal. Only once in the past nine weeks has Salisbury posted fewer than 41 points. But no matter how many points the Gulls conspire to put up on the defending national champions, it’s improbable that they have answers for Levell Coppage, Matt Blanchard or Tyler Huber on the UW-W offense. The skill there is considerable. The players complement one another, and the push off the front line will have Salisbury remembering back to their game against Wesley.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Salisbury 24
In each of the six previous Warhawks playoff runs, there’s been a quarterfinal or semifinal game decided by three to 10 points. This is that game this year. Salisbury will strike early, as there’s no way to simulate an offense that lines its backs up within two yards of the line of scrimmage, and hits holes with remarkable quickness. Even if UW-Whitewater is stronger up front and blows plays up, some seams will develop. By halftime, though, the Warhawks should have a feel for what they’re dealing with, and that’s when Salisbury — the nation’s No. 1 team in passing efficiency, not just scoring offense — has to show some diversity in its attack. When they lull the Warhawks to sleep with the option and then fake it, QB Dan Griffin needs to hit the open streaking receiver. Ball security is also big; The Seagulls have two fumbles in 100 playoff rushes. Defensively, that second half is when Levell Coppage and his offensive line begins to wear down the opposing defense. Thirty carries and a second-half rally from down 24-14 wouldn’t surprise me. UW-Whitewater has earned the respect, and playing at Perkins Stadium, I have to pick them. But Warhawks fans shouldn’t view Salisbury as another Eastern team they can push around. It’s more like a team built in its ‘pound the rock’ mold, and one that won’t be overwhelmed by the continuous thump of run play after run play.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, Salisbury 17
I think we have a speed kills situation here. It’s a big week for Salisbury, the most capable passing triple-option offense to make the postseason in the expanded playoff era, and I like them to stay competitive in the usual way. They can maintain possession, shorten the game, all the things necessary to keep the score close. The Sea Gulls’ defense needs to come up big against the Warhawks’ run game to make it competitive. They may be able to break a couple scores but UW-Whitewater will adjust.

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 31, St. John Fisher 14
I’m not sure that St. John Fisher can handle the kind of run game that St. Thomas brings to the table. The Cardinals have been adept at keeping passing attacks out of the end zone and winning those games, but the only two times this season that opponents have rushed for more than 200 yards, Fisher limped away with losses. The Tommies get a lot of paydirt out of the 5-foot-9 Colin Tobin at running back, but the Dakota Tracy-to-Fritz Waldvogel tandem means that the passing game is in play — always. Fisher has had a great run and, like the 8-2 Wheaton team of 2008, proved that two-loss Pool C teams absolutely deserve consideration for the postseason. The ride, however, ends here.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 25, St. John Fisher 22
I like the Cardinals’ chances a lot if Ryan Kramer starts. The Tommies’ defensive m.o. is smother the run (No. 1 nationally this season at less than 47 yards per game, in a no-slouch conference), and Kramer — a converted running back who wears No. 21 — gives Fisher a diverse playbook. Options, screens and draws are all in play when Kramer is in. The Tommies have leaned on Colin Tobin in the playoffs, and Fritz Waldvogel being a threat to go the distance at any time is the perfect complement to bruising running. If Ahmed Hassanien is the St. John Fisher quarterback, that plays into St. Thomas’s sack-happy pass rush. UST outrushed its two playoff opponents, 354-14 and 391-4, so SJF needs its run game to be a factor to keep the game from getting out of hand. Otherwise, all the reasons you’d normally knock a team — playing in the cold, traveling several states away, not having faced high-caliber opponents — aren’t things that concern me about St. John Fisher.
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 24, St. John Fisher 10
St. John Fisher took down two teams that the AFCA poll thought more highly of than our poll did, in Johns Hopkins and Delaware Valley. That type of ranking differential is usually an indication of a weaker schedule — our voters are more likely to keep a team with a good loss ahead of an unbeaten team. I mention all this in order to set up the point that St. Thomas is no such team. They’ve been to the playoffs each of the past three years and they are much healthier than at this point in 2010. Like last year, the Tommies have a strong run game and are primarily dependent on one receiver, but if Fritz Waldvogel goes down, as he did early in last year’s quarterfinal, at least the Tommies are in slightly better position. Defensively, St. Thomas is firing on all cylinders but will be facing a better challenge than either of the previous two weeks in the playoffs. The reason St. John Fisher doesn’t score more than the 10 points Monmouth scored last week is because I don’t think St. Thomas will put the ball on the turf three times and throw an easy pick. I’ve been pushing St. John Fisher in the first two rounds but can’t for the third. Every good run stops eventually.

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, Mary Hardin-Baylor 34
These two teams have more history together than any of the other pairings on Saturday, and despite that (or perhaps because of it), this matchup is the most difficult to predict. I like Wesley quarterback Shane McSweeny, the coach’s dream combination of potent passing and skilled running. I like his array of receiving targets — and the headaches they’ll provide to the UMHB secondary. I like the Wolverines’ turnover ratio, the red-zone offense, Sean Hopkins’ punt return ability. What I don’t like are penalties and an injured All-America defensive lineman in Chris Mayes. UMHB will make teams pay for their weaknesses, but the fact remains that the Crusaders aren’t as good against the pass as they are against the run. UMHB has seen good passing attacks, but Wesley has the edge in this one.
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Wesley 35
Let’s get this standard analysis out of the way now. If the Wesley that scored 42 unanswered against No. 5 Linfield last week shows up from the opening kick this week, then UMHB has issues. But the Wolverines can’t afford to be the poor tackling, penalty-prone, rely-too-much-on-Shane-McSweeny team that it has been at times the past two weeks. The Wolverines will miss Chris Mayes, but less so than they would have against a pass-heavy team. Defensive tackle Paul Gilstrop and linebackers Jeff Morgan and Mike Asiedu have to excel in run defense. We can’t expect Wesley to hold UMHB under 100 rushing yards like Hobart (80) and Linfield (88); Salisbury (226 but only 75 passing yards) is a more apt comparison. Cru QB LiDarral Bailey hasn’t had to attempt more than 17 passes since mid-October. Darius Wilson hasn’t put up big numbers in the early rounds, but he’s lost one fumble in 224 carries this season. Ball security was an issue in the 19-9 loss in Dover last season, as was having to play from behind. UMHB is better when they build an early lead, but if they do it on Saturday, they’ll have to keep building, because the Wolverines have proven they can score in a hurry, and they’re never out of a game.
Pat’s take: Wesley 42, Mary Hardin-Baylor 37
Wesley brought back its entire linebacking corps this year, lost its entire secondary, and those are things which benefit the Wolverines against an option team such as Mary Hardin-Baylor. Chris Mayes being out with his ACL injury makes it a little more difficult for Wesley to hold the Cru down, however. UMHB’s struggles on offense early in the season could easily be explained away by the Cru’s flirtation with the pistol, getting them away from what they do best. And UMHB has held McMurry, a prolific offense, more or less in check twice. Shane McSweeny will be a different challenge, of course, than McMurry offered at quarterback, but not altogether different than East Texas Baptist’s Sed Harris provided. Harris went 17-for-29 for 117 yards while also rushing for 290 yards on 30 carries in an Oct. 22 loss to UMHB. Wesley is better defensively, however, even with Mayes out.

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 28, Wabash 20
After Wabash’s historic win last week against North Central, the Little Giants have made this discussion all the more interesting. But this chapter will be a challenging one to get through. The Purple Raiders have stumbled from time to time over the season, but true to form, they haven’t fallen. The Collins-Claycomb-Denton receiving squad is as formidable as any in Division III, helping to make UMU a consensus Top 2 team since the preseason. To stay in this one, Wabash’s answer will have to be a physical corps of defensive backs — an element the team has. It also has a run defense that not only hits hard but is quick to flocking to the ball. Offensively, the Little Giants have their own receiving threats with Jonathan Horn and Wes Chamblee, each of whom have great hands and hovered around 150 yards in the North Central game. We all know what Mount Union is capable of. The Purple Raiders co-own Division III. No question. Wabash has heart — we saw that last week. That heart, along with some big plays and a stingy defense, will make this game a good one.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 24, Wabash 12
I’ve got to respect the Little Giants after last week’s comeback against a North Central team that was probably better than most teams bounced in the second round. But like Wesley, they can’t fall behind again this week. Mount Union might not have a Cecil Shorts or a Nate Kmic this season, but they’ve got a Nick Driskill and a Charles Dieseul. When Centre scored 10 on the Purple Raiders last week, they became only the third team this season to reach that mark. Mount Union has had to scuffle for offense at times this year, and Wabash is good enough defensively to make it happen again, especially if defensive backs Austin Hodges and Kyle Najar play well. The Purple Raiders got wide receiver Jasper Collins back last week after four missed games, but lost top RB Jeremy Murray after five carries. Injuries are more of a factor in this semifinal than the others — we don’t know which Wabash QB will start either. This to me sets up to be a game that appears ugly to the untrained eye, but beautiful to the fans of hard tackling, solid blocking and powerful running. Won’t be fancy, as both teams try to take care of the ball, put the other in bad field position and let its dominant defense dominate.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Wabash 13
I can see Wabash keeping Mount Union at least somewhat in check offensively. I struggle to see Wabash taking advantage, however, at least with its offensive unit on the field. Wes Chamblee is going to have to do a lot of work in the return game to keep Wabash in this game. Mount Union knows how to keep its foot on the gas offensively. Whether the offense has enough horsepower is another question, but at least the Purple Raiders won’t call off the dogs too soon and leave the door open for a comeback.

Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount Union · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Sean McAndrew brought down two big fourth-quarter touchdowns against Linfield. Wesley athletics photo

Two big comebacks and another that nearly went all the way back. Two prolific passing games bounced. Three if you count Franklin. Some stout run defense. And a family connection coming up.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan talk about all eight second-round games and the four upcoming quarterfinals, but give special attention to Wabash-North Central, Wesley-Linfield and Kean-Salisbury in this week’s Around the Nation podcast.

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You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Plus, here’s this week’s D3football.com reports.

Alex Tanney · Centre · Delaware Valley · Franklin · Jeremy Murray · Kean · Levell Coppage · Linfield · Mary Hardin-Baylor · McMurry · Monmouth · Mount Union · North Central (Ill.) · Salisbury · Shane McSweeny · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley