Sean McAndrew brought down two big fourth-quarter touchdowns against Linfield. Wesley athletics photo

Two big comebacks and another that nearly went all the way back. Two prolific passing games bounced. Three if you count Franklin. Some stout run defense. And a family connection coming up.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan talk about all eight second-round games and the four upcoming quarterfinals, but give special attention to Wabash-North Central, Wesley-Linfield and Kean-Salisbury in this week’s Around the Nation podcast.

Around the Nation Podcast [ 1:14:56 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Plus, here’s this week’s D3football.com reports.

Alex Tanney · Centre · Delaware Valley · Franklin · Jeremy Murray · Kean · Levell Coppage · Linfield · Mary Hardin-Baylor · McMurry · Monmouth · Mount Union · North Central (Ill.) · Salisbury · Shane McSweeny · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Delaware Valley is one of this week’s toss-up games, where our picks don’t agree. Delaware Valley athletics photo

The field of 32 has become a more elite group of 16. Last week, several games were decided by 10 points or less. How many of those met your expectations?

The first week fell mostly according to form, and no three-game sweeps were wrong. And few games were outside of the general range of scores that we predicted: Projected blowouts were often just that, and narrow projections often came down to the wire.

So we’ll walk you through our predictions again for Round 2. We’re soon wrapping up the November games and moving closer to the Division III championship Stagg Bowl on Dec. 16.

Remember, these postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

If you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and be sure to come back afterward to see how you did. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Franklin 7
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 35, Franklin 14
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, Franklin 10

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 38, Kean 24
Keith’s take: Salisbury 35, Kean 21
Pat’s take: Salisbury 35, Kean 17

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 49, Monmouth 27
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 27, Monmouth 21
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 45, Monmouth 24

Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 38, St. John Fisher 21
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 20, St. John Fisher 10
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 24, Delaware Valley 21

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, McMurry 24
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, McMurry 23
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, McMurry 24

Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Linfield 27
Keith’s take: Linfield 24, Wesley 20
Pat’s take: Linfield 35, Wesley 34

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wabash 24,  North Central 21
Keith’s take: North Central 28, Wabash 20
Pat’s take: North Central 31, Wabash 20

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 41, Centre 14
Keith’s take: Mount Union 42, Centre 17
Pat’s take: Mount Union 50, Centre 13

Centre · Delaware Valley · Franklin · Kean · Linfield · Monmouth · Mount Union · North Central · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Will Kean win in its first-ever playoff game? Our crew says … Kean athletics photo

You’ve probably been reading all week about the uniqueness of this year’s playoff setup, with a spread-out bracket, a team with two Division III losses getting an at-large bid and some likeable and loatheable pairings. You’ve heard large amounts of analysis and predictions — some of which will come true and others that won’t.

But you’re still hungry for more, right?

From now until the third weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out. (And we each make our picks independently.)

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

How does this work?

• First, look at the scoring margin. If they are predicted to be a close game, we think the teams are evenly matched.
• Second, look at the winners. If it’s a three-man sweep, we think there’s a clear favorite. If it’s a split decision, it’s definitely a toss-up.
• Third, look at the total points. If most of us predict a lot of points, you can expect a shootout. Weather permitting, of course.

It’s not a competition between the three of us, so we have no stake in being right — we’d rather see you show off your smarts in the bracket challenge. Ryan, Keith and Pat aren’t keeping score, but usually the first weekend, each picks between 10 and 14 correct winners, often in the ballpark of the actual final. That means these Triple Take picks set the expectation, but we know at least a few teams will surprise us in the opening round. Will it be yours?

If you don’t feel your team is getting enough love, rather than complain, explain to us in the comments section below why they’re going to win. And if you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and be sure to come back afterward to see how you did. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Albion 10
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Albion 7
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 54, Albion 6

Ryan’s take: Thomas More 33, Franklin 30
Keith’s take: Franklin 35, Thomas More 21
Pat’s take: Thomas More 34, Franklin 28

Ryan’s take: Kean 31, Christopher Newport 20
Keith’s take: Kean 22, Christopher Newport 12
Pat’s take: Kean 27, Christopher Newport 13

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 49, Western New England 7
Keith’s take: Salisbury 56, Western New England 14
Pat’s take: Salisbury 62, Western New England 7

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 38, St. Scholastica 10
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 49, St. Scholastica 0
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 70, St. Scholastica 8

Ryan’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 27, Monmouth 20
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Monmouth 33
Pat’s take: Monmouth 27, Illinois Wesleyan 24

Ryan’s take: St. John Fisher 28, Johns Hopkins 23
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, St. John Fisher 21
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 28, Johns Hopkins 24

Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Norwich 7
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 28, Norwich 9
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 49, Norwich 6

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Redlands 17
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Redlands 24
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Redlands 21

Ryan’s take: McMurry 45, Trinity 13
Keith’s take: McMurry 24, Trinity 17
Pat’s take: McMurry 35, Trinity 21

Ryan’s take: Cal Lutheran 38, Linfield 35
Keith’s take: Linfield 28, Cal Lutheran 24
Pat’s take: Linfield 42, Cal Lutheran 37

Ryan’s take: Wesley 42, Hobart 10
Keith’s take: Wesley 35, Hobart 17
Pat’s take: Wesley 40, Hobart 13

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wabash 45, Illinois College 17
Keith’s take: Wabash 30, Illinois College 16
Pat’s take: Wabash 38, Illinois College 3

Ryan’s take: North Central 33, Dubuque 13
Keith’s take: North Central 38, Dubuque 35
Pat’s take: North Central 54, Dubuque 28

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney 42, Centre 38
Keith’s take: Centre 37, Hampden-Sydney 35
Pat’s take: Centre 27, Hampden-Sydney 21

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Benedictine 3
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Benedictine 0
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Benedictine 6

Albion · Benedictine · Cal Lutheran · Centre · Christopher Newport · Delaware Valley · Dubuque · Franklin · Hampden-Sydney · Hobart · Illinois College · Illinois Wesleyan · Johns Hopkins · Kean · Linfield · Mary Hardin-Baylor · McMurry · Monmouth · Mount Union · North Central · Norwich · Redlands · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Scholastica · St. Thomas · Thomas More · Trinity (Texas) · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley · Western New England

Well, this was a stunner! A positive one, but a stunner nonetheless. Just going to paste in some quick analysis and open the floor.

In short, no Endicott in this field and no Case, with St. John Fisher and Illinois College replacing them. So on a day in which we finally officially gave up on getting a two-loss at-large team into the field over a one-loss team, the NCAA finally did the right thing.

The NCAA also sprung for an extra flight, sending Cal Lutheran back to Linfield and giving Redlands a trip to Mary Hardin-Baylor.

The top eight seeds, teams placed at either end of the four brackets: UW-Whitewater and Salisbury (top left), St. Thomas and Delaware Valley (bottom left), Mary Hardin-Baylor and Wesley (top right), and Wabash and Mount Union (bottom right).

This is a bracket similar to the ones the NCAA Division III mens basketball committee has been putting out the past couple of years. Mount Union is in a bracket with three other north teams, two west teams and two south teams. Hobart is essentially a seven seed, sent to Wesley for the first round and would fly if it won that game.

Opening the floor. Thoughts?

brackets · fantastic · for once · NCAA

Will we see Endicott in the field? Endicott photo by David Le Photography

So this is what happens when nobody loses. The team with the best at-large chance that lost in Week 11 was Louisiana College. (Talk about a loss that barely made a ripple on a busy day.) So in the end, we ended up with the same six Pool C teams that it looked like it would be before the weekend started.

But we still went through all of the steps anyway, just to make sure.

Wesley was our Pool B team. Although they had a regional loss, it doesn’t seem right to make national decisions without the secondary criteria. For more about the selection criteria, check our FAQ. So both teams are 9-1 at that point, Wesley has a much better strength of schedule and a win against a regionally ranked team … whereas Case Western Reserve didn’t even play any.

Pool C went like this for us: Redlands, Illinois Wesleyan, Case Western Reserve, McMurry, Centre and Endicott last. Here’s a shorthand look at their resumes:

Team Reg. W-L SOS Results vs. reg. ranked opps.
Redlands 8-1 .547 WvNCtrl, L@CLU
Illinois Wesleyan 9-1 .540 WvWtn, LvNCtrl
Case Western Reserve 9-0 .487 NA
McMurry 7-1 .530 L@UMHB (also 1-1 vs. two I-AA/FCS opponents)
Centre 8-1 .565 L@TTX
Endicott 9-1 .523 L@WNEU

The remaining 1-loss team, Illinois College, has a .497 strength of schedule. Then there are many 2-loss teams. We think many of them are better than Endicott, however, the NCAA never ever ever sees it this way. If Wheaton or St. John Fisher were to make the field, we’d be surprised, but it would be a better field.

Enough with the explanation. Here’s our bracket. It’s a PDF download, so if you can’t see the PDF on that page, there’s a link to download it for yourself.

That gives us our 32 teams. From that we take picked four top seeds, and we took UW-Whitewater, Mount Union, Mary Hardin-Baylor and St. Thomas. Remember one of the new criteria the NCAA football committee can use as a tiebreaker among unbeaten teams is performance in last year’s playoffs. With that, UW-Whitewater and Mount Union no longer have to worry about their top seeds, but also, it can be used as a tiebreaker for top seeds.

Why no two-loss teams? Pat Coleman explains why.

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